Trading strategy for EUR/USD on November 4th. "The largest witch hunt in history"

Trading 04 nov 2019 Donner votre avis



As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed consolidation above the correction level of 50.0% (1.1145) on the new grid of Fibo levels, built on the extremes of June 25 and October 1. At the same time, the pair was unable to close above the peak level of August 23 – 1.1164. So it turned out that all day, which was full of economic reports, the pair traded in the range of 20 points. The upward trend channel has been extended, indicating the continuation of bullish sentiment in the forex market for the euro/dollar pair.

As I said, there were a large number of important economic reports on Friday, and almost all of them came out in the US. Nonfarm Payrolls stands out among all the reports, which exceeded the expectations of traders by almost 30 thousand created jobs outside agriculture. But the positive effect of sufficiently strong Nonfarm was smeared with all the rest of the data. For example, the unemployment rate in October unexpectedly rose to 3.6%, which remains the lowest value in several decades. The average hourly wage increased in October by 3.0% compared to the previous year, which is exactly what the traders expected. The PMI business activity index in the manufacturing sector was 51.3, decreasing by 0.2% compared with the previous value, and the ISM PMI added 0.5 points to 48.3, which, however, is still a negative value. As you can see, only Nonfarm can be considered as a positive moment, the rest of the reports seem to be not a failure, but it is difficult to call them strong.

What does all this mean for the euro/dollar currency pair? Since graphically we have an upward channel, then, of course, any information background is considered as an opportunity to buy a pair. On Friday, it was exactly this, but new purchases of the euro currency did not follow, which is alarming. Although the economic reports in America continue to deteriorate, the European Union cannot boast of anything else either. This may be sufficient to ensure that traders once again began to look in the direction of the US currency.

Although not only the information background is now against the dollar. The topic of impeachment of US President Donald Trump received an unexpected continuation. On October 31, the US Congress passed a resolution authorizing the start of the impeachment process. This document contains the rules by which all hearings will be held and determines the sufficiency of grounds for impeachment of Trump. All Democrats supported the document. Let me remind you that the whole "fuss" began because of a conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky, during which trump tried to force Kyiv to investigate the activities of his main opponent – Democrat Joe Biden and his son. Of course, Trump wanted to influence the course of the elections in 2020 in this way, simply to try to eliminate a competitor. However, the conversation with the President of Ukraine became public, and Trump was accused of treason and trying to dishonestly influence the elections of 2020. However, no matter how loud this case may be, there is practically no chance for Trump to be truly removed for one simple reason. The majority in the Senate, which should make the final decision, belongs to the Republicans. This whole procedure is nothing but the struggle of the Democrats and Joe Biden against Donald Trump for the presidency in future elections.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

On November 4, traders will continue their attempts to continue growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% (1.1208). This is exactly what I expect today. Today it is worth paying attention to the index of business activity in the production sector by the European Union, which is likely to remain below 50. Thus, the euro will not receive information support today. At the same time, inside the ascending channel, the probability of continued growth of the pair remains. I recommend a neat purchase.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 25, 2019, and October 1, 2019.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

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