The dollar has maintained momentum, the Fed is likely to postpone the rate cut

Trading 09 juil 2019 Donner votre avis

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The dollar has confidently started a new week and keeps proximity near three-week highs, maintaining the momentum received after the release of strong data on employment in the US last week. A positive report may delay a sharp decline in the interest rate of the Fed. But the Turkish lira collapsed after Turkish President Recep Erdogan dismissed the head of the central bank, which caused yet another concern about the independence of the regulator. High US job growth is likely to deprive the Fed of a rate cut in late July, although weak wage growth and other data showing that the world's largest economy is losing momentum means that the Fed can still do so before the end of the year . That is why the dollar will continue to be traded on a more sustainable basis in the short term, given that the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased. The current recovery of the dollar follows a period of weakness, and the greenback has every chance to win.

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The euro, which fell to $1,1208 on Friday, was trading at $1,1227, unchanged during the day. The single currency is under pressure from the strengthening of the dollar and data on the weakness of the German industrial sector. Currently, traders are focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress, which will be held on Wednesday, as well as on data on inflation in the United States. The British pound reached a six-month low and is trading below $1.25 after weak economic data and rising expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates in 2020. The Turkish lira dropped to 5.8245 dollars, the lowest rate in two weeks. "Some naive market participants may still hope that the new governor of the central bank of Turkey will be independent and, at least, will not immediately lower interest rates. This may be the case, but it does not change the fact that a medium-term reasonable monetary policy in Turkey is not possible," analysts at Commerzbank say.

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