Technical picture and forecast for EUR/USD on February 12, 2020

Trading 12 fév 2020 Donner votre avis

Hello, dear traders!

At the end of yesterday's trading, the Euro/dollar currency pair strengthened slightly, leaving approximately equidistant shadows at the top and bottom. The economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic supported the US dollar. Now, these fears have slightly decreased, although it is certainly too early to talk about a complete victory over the epidemic.

Economic reports indicate that the US economy is much stronger than in the eurozone, however, this is also no secret to anyone for a long time. I believe that yesterday's pressure on the dollar was mainly due to the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who made it clear to the markets that the agency he leads is not going to make changes to its monetary policy in the near future. In other words, US interest rates will remain at their current levels. Against the background of the trade standoff between the US and China and some other global risks to the world economy, there is no need to make any changes to monetary policy at the moment, unless there are events that require these actions.

Today, at 11:00 (London time), the eurozone will publish data on industrial production. The US is also not expected to see an abundance of events. At 14:30 (London time), Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will make a speech, and at 16:00 (London time), the second part of the Fed Chairman Powell's speech will be held with a report on monetary policy.

It is unlikely that the head of the Fed will say something that will surprise and (or) excite the markets. The main message was already given yesterday - the rates will remain unchanged.

Therefore, we can assume that the EUR/USD currency pair will spend today's trading day under the influence of technical factors and market sentiment.



For once, a candle with a small but bullish body appeared on the daily chart. At its core, this candle is considered a reversal, so we can assume that today the euro/dollar will move up. At the moment of writing this article, this is exactly what we are seeing. After showing lows at 1.0902, the pair turned on the rise and is now trading near 1.0920. The goals for growth and anticipated options for sales have not changed much. The Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator fell in the area of 1.0980-1.1000 and 1.1030.

Despite the fact that yesterday's candle is a reversal, it is too early to talk about changing the trend. Rather, it is a reversal of the correction to the prices indicated above, from which it is proposed to consider sales.



As you can see, on this timeframe, the euro/dollar is trying to return to the abandoned descending channel, and I will not be surprised if the return takes place. In this case, we consider options for opening short positions near 1.0980, 1.1000 and 1.1045, where the upper limit of the channel and the 200 exponentials are located.

In fact, after false breakdowns of one of the channel borders, it needs to be rebuilt, but everything looks as it looks at the moment.

Despite the fact that there are well-founded assumptions about the current growth of the pair, I do not recommend buying now. Yes, there is a high probability that the pair will return to the limits of the channel, but at the moment, the broken support line of the channel resists attempts to grow, and it is still unknown how this will end.

In my personal opinion, it is better to skip the corrective recovery, purchases of EUR/USD and enters the market according to the main downtrend near the prices indicated in this review.

Success and profitable deals!

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