Indicator analysis. Daily review on January 17, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the work down with the first lower target 1.2823 is a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the work down with the first lower target 1.2823 is a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In the foreign exchange market unstable equilibrium

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Eurozone

The euro partially lose ground before the publication of the report on inflation in December, while the forecasts are still neutral, but a number of factors, such as a decline in manufacturing activity in Germany, a general fall in PMI in the eurozone and Brexit uncertainty, put pressure on the euro.

Support for EUR/ USD 1.1330 / 35, growth is limited by the level of 1.1420, slightly more likely to move up during the day.

Great Britain

Against the backdrop of increasing political crisis, the pound received unexpected support. Despite the fact that inflation slowed to a two-year low in December, it was still slightly higher than expected, and the base index without taking into account volatile energy and food prices even rose from 1.8% to 1.9%, which gives hope that the slowdown in price growth will end as soon as oil prices stabilize.

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As expected, some conservatives who voted against the Brexit agreement with the EU did not dare to repeat their trick on the question of confidence in the cabinet of ministers, as a result of which Theresa May managed to keep her post. This victory, however, may turn out to be Pyrrhic. The conservatives just don't want to allow extraordinary elections, as they may lose some of the seats, but a positive outcome does not add any chance that by January 21, a Brexit solution will be found that suits everyone.

The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, commenting on the voting results, noted that the market's expectations are most clearly reflected in the foreign exchange market. The pound remained close to local maximum, which, in his opinion, indicates a good prospect of reaching an agreement with the EU. At the same time, the EU coordinator at the Brexit talks, Michel Barnier, believes that the likelihood of a tough Brexit has risen to an "unprecedented level" without any agreement.

No macroeconomic publications on the pound are expected until the end of the week, so all attention will be focused on possible insights regarding preparations for the January 21 parliamentary session, the last opportunity to reach an agreement. GBP / USD with a high probability will not go beyond the range of 1.2805 / 1.2930 until any significant news appears.

Oil

Oil prices adjusted downward after the publication of the weekly report by the US Department of Energy, which showed a record increase to 11.9 million barrels per day. We also need to note higher than expected reserves of gasoline and crude oil. US production is growing, largely offsetting a decline in OPEC +, which prevents market balancing.

At the same time, surprisingly, production growth in the USA occurs without the growth of three main indicators, the number of drilling rigs, investment in the mining sector and employment, which are at levels lower than during the time of the second oil bubble of 2011/14.

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Such unexpected statistics can indicate either an unprecedented increase in the efficiency of production, that is, the triumph of modern technologies, or the fact that something is not in order with the methods of calculating own production. In any case, the factor of record production in the United States will prevent oil prices from continuing to grow, therefore stabilization in the range of 58.90 / 62.60 formed last week is more likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. January 16. Results of the day. Cancel Brexit, Brexit transfer, new Brexit negotiations?

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 94p - 73p - 156p - 112p - 246p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 136p (106p).

The British pound sterling on Wednesday, January 16th, is not moving. Traders, with such a feeling, do not know what to do next. On the one hand, yesterday, a fateful decision was made for Britain. On the other hand, the situation with Brexit did not become clearer. It only became clear that the UK is not exactly leaving the EU according to the Chequers plan. However, whether it will leave the European Union at all and under what conditions it is now is unknown. Today on the agenda in the British Parliament is the question of distrust of Theresa May, initiated by the leader of the main opposition party (Labour), Jeremy Corbyn. If the majority of deputies vote in favor, Theresa May will be dismissed. We believe that this is exactly what will happen. But again, it is not known how traders will react to this event. From our point of view, the resignation of Theresa May will give a chance for new negotiations with the EU, perhaps more productive and beneficial for the United Kingdom, as well as a chance for the country not to leave the EU at all. Thus, Theresa May's resignation could provoke ... the growth of the British currency. In any case, it is best to wait for the evening and find out how the debate in Parliament will end. Inflation, published today in the UK, did not cause any reaction from the market, as it corresponded to the predicted value - 2.1% y/y in December. In his speech today, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, noted that the loss of Theresa May and the strengthening of the British pound means that markets believe in reducing the chances of a disorderly exit of the country from the EU.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair remains in an upward trend on the eve of a new vote in the British Parliament. Once again, we do not recommend opening any positions in the current situation, as it is associated with increased risks. The pair can again be extremely volatile in the next few hours.

The same applies to sell orders. Any positions you can open, aware of the increased risks and always placing protective Stop Loss orders.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. January 16. Results of the day. In the evening, Theresa May can be dismissed

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 121p - 85p - 83p - 31p - 108p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 86p (76p).

On Wednesday, January 16, the EUR/USD currency pair plummeted to the support level of 1.1386 and, by and large, stood all day in one place. Despite the fact that yesterday an event took place, which in terms of importance is unparalleled, today the activity of traders is practically zero, and the instrument's volatility is rather low. During the last part of the day, not a single important macroeconomic report was published in the eurozone or in the United States. But in the next hour a report on retail sales in America will be released, which is considered to be quite important. It is expected that the increase in December, taking into account and excluding car sales will be 0.2%. Any value above this will support the American currency. At least a small one. However, an even more important event, comparable to yesterday's Brexit vote, will take place tonight in the same British parliament. Deputies will vote for a no-confidence vote for Theresa May. And according to the results of this vote, Theresa May can be dismissed. From our point of view, the probability of such a deplorable outcome for the current prime minister is about 90%. Too big and important defeat she suffered the day before. By and large, its negotiations with the EU now have no special meaning, since it is unclear what awaits the UK, even in the near future. It is also possible to hold parliamentary elections, the choice of a new prime minister. The new government can hold a new referendum or start new negotiations with the EU or even abandon Brexit altogether. In general, despite the fact that these events are more important for the pound, we believe that they can also affect the euro currency.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair retains the prospects of a downward movement, but it cannot overcome the level of 1.1386 yet. Thus, a correction may begin, and it is recommended to open new sell positions not earlier than overcoming the level of 1.1386 with the goal of 1.1314.

Long positions can be considered not earlier than the bulls overcoming the level of 1.1487. In this case, long positions with the target of 1.1560 will become relevant again.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCAD 1/16/19

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

For the second week, the pair is trading outside the monthly short-term of January. This allows you to use any reduction to search for favorable purchase prices, since the probability of returning to the zone is 90%.

Today, the pair has once again returned to the monthly short-term of January. On the path of growth, NKZ 1/2 1.3290-1.3279 acts as resistance, which buyers cannot overcome. It is important to understand that sales from the current levels are an extremely risky investment, since the probability of the price returning to the level of 1.3288 is 90%. This statistic allows you to consider buying patterns as soon as the pair moves away from the specified mark.

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You should not buy the instrument from the current marks. It is necessary to wait for the test of a significant extremum. To date, this level is the low of yesterday.

An alternative model of decline, which will be updated at least in January, has a low probability and it is not profitable to consider it for trading. The further the pair moves away from the monthly short-circuit, the greater the expectation can be obtained at the entrance to the reversal pattern in the buy-in. The January fall is a medium-term impulse, but going beyond the monthly short-term suggests that the pair has exhausted the course, which is usually supported by major players.

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Day short - daily control area. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - week control area. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones NZDUSD 01/16/19

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

The pair has been trading for the second week within the monthly CP of January. This increases the likelihood of a downward correction or reversal movement. The first signs of the proposal are already visible.

The test of the monthly CP of January led to the appearance of a major offer. Today, a model is being formed that could be turning in the medium term. This will require the closure of US trading below the current level. If the price is kept below the NKZ 1/2 0.6778-0.6771, the next target zone will be the weekly KZ 0.6708-0.6694. Sales opened after a false breakout of the February 15 high can be transferred to breakeven and partially fixed in order to be able to top up the position in case of a corrective movement.

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Today, the fate of the upward momentum will be decided. In case of closing of the US session below the level of 0.6771, further downward movement will be a priority for the second half of the week.

In order for the upward movement to resume, it will require the emergence of strong demand, which will allow the price to close above the NKZ 1/2 at today's close of trading in Chicago high will be the growth target again. Until the close of trading, the probability of downward and upward movements is about the same. For those who hold sales, the best option would be to continue to decline.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 16, 2019

Trading 16 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been extremely volatile in the last 24 hours due to the Brexit news. However, I found that buyers and sellers agreed to operate in a range within 1.2895 (resistance) and 1.2835 (support), which is a sign that market is in the balance regime. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. I also found very strong demand in the background and aggressive buyers.

Trading recommendations for today: We will buy GBP/USD at 1.2910 with the targets at 1.2960 and 1.3040.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for January 16, 2019

Trading 16 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,292.00. Gold is in a big consolidation phase and the best thing to do is to wait for the confirmation and for a breakout. The overall trend is still bullish and I would advice you to watch for a bullish breakout. The key resistance level is set at the price of $1,298.00. I also found a rectangular pattern inside of a symmetrical triangle, which is a sign that we may see very soon expansion in price.

Trading recommendations for today: We will buy gold at $1.299.00-$1.300 with the targets at $1,309.30 (rectangle projection) and $1.317.00 (symmetrical triangle projection)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

British authorities hold power, Nomura sells EUR / GBP

Trading 16 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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There is a possibility that British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign within a few days after a devastating vote. Still, Nomura does not believe in tough Brexit, waiting for the stabilization of the political situation in the country and the growth rate of sterling. Thus, currency strategists explained the opening of a short position in EUR / GBP pair from 0.8880.

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London representatives of the bank reported that the position of British Prime Minister Theresa May looks quite constructive. Her desire to lengthen the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the intention to begin inter-party negotiations on the country's withdrawal from the group will most likely allow the British government to retain power.

If a vote of no confidence is announced to the government, the pound may drop by 3%.

The bank estimates that next week traders will focus on what Ms. May can offer as a backup plan.

Many political analysts believe that the British Prime Minister will once again "stand on his feet." May lost in the House of Commons, but "there is no immediate threat to her position." Theresa May will remain in power, as the Democratic Unionist Party and the Conservatives, who voted against her unpopular EU exit deal, will support her.

Note that Ms. May herself contacted, saying that the British government is already busy searching for an acceptable Brexit plan, which would receive the support of parliamentarians.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for January 16, 2019

Trading 16 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been struggling at the edge of $3,500-600 area for a few days in a row. The price is expected climb higher if it can breach above the dynamic resistance of 200 EMA. The price has managed to create higher lows while consolidating at the edge of $3,500-600 area. The price is being held by the Kumo cloud resistance as well as 200 EMA as resistance. If not breached, the price may move much lower in the coming days. The Chikou Span is currently facing the price line resistance whereas a break above it is expected to lead to strong bullish pressure resulting in the upward push towards $4,000 area in the coming days. As the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com