Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 13

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Forecast for November 13:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1108, 1.1090, 1.1064, 1.1044, 1.1013, 1.0973 and 1.0941. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 4. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1013. In this case, the target is 1.0973. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0941. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1044 - 1.1064. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1090. The range 1.1090 - 1.1108 is a key support for the downward structure, before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1045 Take profit: 1.1062

Buy: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.1090

Sell: 1.1012 Take profit: 1.0975

Sell: 1.0971 Take profit: 1.0941

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3032, 1.2997, 1.2946, 1.2905, 1.2876, 1.2840, 1.2817, 1.2790 and 1.2765. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of November 8. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2876 - 1.2905. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the level of 1.2946. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2946 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2997. We consider the level 1.3032 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2840 - 1.2817. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2790. This level is a key support for the top, its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local descending structure. Here, the first goal is 1.2765.

The main trend is building potential for the top of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2905

Buy: 1.2907 Take profit: 1.2944

Sell: 1.2840 Take profit: 1.2818

Sell: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2792

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 1.0001, 0.9968, 0.9933, 0.9919, 0.9900, 0.9890 and 0.9865. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from November 1. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the bottom from November 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9968. In this case, the target is 1.0001. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level 1.0025 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9933 - 0.9919. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9900. The range of 0.9900 - 0.9890 is the key support. Its price passage will allow you to expect movement to a potential target - 0.9863.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from November 1, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9970 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy : 1.0002 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9900

Sell: 0.9890 Take profit: 0.9865

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.12, 109.79, 109.54, 109.28, 109.03, 108.84 and 108.62. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the local ascending structure on November 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.28. Here, the first goal is 109.54. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on moving to 109.79. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.12.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 109.03 - 108.84. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the local ascending structure from November 7. Here, the first goal is 108.62.

The main trend: the upward cycle of November 1, the local structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.28 Take profit: 109.52

Buy : 109.55 Take profit: 109.77

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.62

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3332, 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185 and 1.3156. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from October 29, as well as the local structure for the top from November 5. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3246 - 1.3268. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3332, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3185. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3156. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3266

Buy : 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3332

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3187

Sell: 1.3183 Take profit: 1.3156

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6895, 0.6879, 0.6866, 0.6845, 0.6836, 0.6810 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 5. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6854 - 0.6836. In this case, the target is 0.6810. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6793, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6866 - 0.6879. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6895. This level is a key support for the downward structure from November 5.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6866 Take profit: 0.6877

Buy: 0.6880 Take profit: 0.6895

Sell : 0.6836 Take profit : 0.6812

Sell: 0.6808 Take profit: 0.6793

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.87, 120.62, 120.41, 120.03, 119.83, 119.38 and 119.07. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of October 30. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.03 - 119.83. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 119.38. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.07. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 120.41 - 120.62. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.87. This level is a key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.41 Take profit: 120.62

Buy: 120.64 Take profit: 120.87

Sell: 120.03 Take profit: 119.85

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.38

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 141.57, 141.27, 140.72, 139.36, 138.97, 138.51, 138.19 and 137.71. Here, as the main structure, we consider the downward trend of November 5, and the price has also formed the potential for the top of November 11. The level of 140.72 is the key support for the initial conditions of November 5. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of the ascending structure of November 11. Here, the first potential target is 141.27. Price consolidation is in the range of 141.27 - 141.57. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 139.36 - 138.97.

The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 138.51. Price consolidation is in the range of 138.51 - 138.19. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 137.71. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback in the correction.

The main trend is the descending structure of November 5, the potential for the top of November 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.72 Take profit: 141.27

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 139.36 Take profit: 138.98

Sell: 138.95 Take profit: 138.51

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for GBP/USD pair

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Good evening, dear traders! It is time to think of the British pound. Monday was very bright for the GBP / USD currency pair: a whole batch of strong news made this instrument launch a strong bull rally, which looks quite promising. It is important that the latest data on the pound will be released almost every day this week, which will undoubtedly give good volatility.

Therefore, the recommendation for this instrument is to try to take a buy position, but strictly over the level of 1.2845, since it is now important for the buyer. In addition, consolidating the price above will mean that the buyer has not gone anywhere, and the probability of growth will remain high. The first goal for possible growth is Monday's maximum at the price of 1.2897; the longer-term goal is the level of 1.2975. The losses, in turn, can be limited to a minimum of November 11.

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I wish you success in trading and big profits!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar flip: is it possible to turn 180 degrees

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

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The past week, which took place under the sign of strengthening of the US currency, caused concern in the market. The dollar strengthened its position, despite the accompanying circumstances, both positive and not too good. In the current situation, analysts fear a cardinal reversal of the greenback, which may occur in the next couple of days.

Concerns about a potential change in the greenback dynamics are caused by some significant events that are expected this week. Among them are the publication of data on inflation and US retail sales, as well as speeches by US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell. The main focus of the market is focused on the upcoming report by the Fed head to the US Congress, which will focus on monetary policy issues.

According to experts, the events planned for Wednesday and Thursday will cause a flurry of volatility in the market. They recommend waiting for it, and then, depending on the situation, watch how the dollar behaves in the EUR/USD pair. Until tomorrow, analysts advise not to carry out any noticeable manipulations with the EUR/USD pair and the greenback, and then act on the circumstances.

At the beginning of this week and at the end of last year, the US currency was supported by positive market expectations. Many traders and investors are confident that after three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed will take a long pause. Over the past week, the chances of maintaining the current rate to mid-2020 have greatly increased - from the previous 30% to the current 62%. Such a revaluation provoked an explosive increase in the yield of US government bonds, experts emphasize. It also helped the greenback strengthen.

Earlier, the strengthening of the dollar's position was facilitated by good news about a possible trade truce between Washington and Beijing. The market hoped that the upcoming trade deal would spur US economic growth. At the same time, an increase was recorded in world markets.

However, hopes remained in the field of dreams, and their realization moved beyond the horizon. Analysts warn that dollar growth should not always be considered good news. For almost two years, the strengthening of the greenback took place amid fears for the global economy. At the same time, the opposite effect is possible: strengthening the greenback can significantly weaken the growth of the global economy. In this situation, investors shift to US assets, ignoring the rest. This creates an imbalance in the global market, analysts said.

The strengthening of the US dollar and the apparent overheating of the global market raise investors' concerns about the prospects of other currencies. These concerns may increase if the greenback really reverses 180 degrees after the events of the next two days. Such a reversal can not only brings the EUR/USD pair into the zone of a prolonged fall, but also entrain other currencies.

The EUR/USD pair experienced noticeable volatility on Monday, November 11, cruising in a wide range from 1.1022 to 1.1033. According to experts, a critical level for the pair could be a fall below 1.1000, which will open the way to 1.0900.

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The EUR/USD pair started quite upbeat on Tuesday morning, rising to the level of 1.1035. However, the pair could not continue the day on a positive note.

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At a certain point, the EUR/USD pair fell to low levels of 1.1025–1.1026, demonstrating a dangerous tendency to grope for the bottom.

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At the moment, experts consider the resistance level of 1.1050. To this level, the EUR/USD pair should go exactly half way, and now the pair is stuck in low positions 1.1027–1.1028. According to analysts, in the event of a breakthrough of resistance at the level of 1.1045, the EUR/USD pair is able to reach the level of 1.1110.

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At present, three more factors have become an additional "fuel" for the dollar: fairly positive statistical data on the US labor market, the Fed's confidence in the strength of the American economy, and hopes for a breakthrough in US and Chinese trade negotiations. The combination of such incentives tuned the market for possible growth in the coming months. However, a positive attitude at any moment can turn into the opposite side, analysts warn.

A number of experts believe that a fateful reversal of the dollar in the coming days should not be expected, but certain changes in the dynamics of the greenback will appear. Analysts find it difficult to answer whether these changes will be marked with a positive or negative sign, but they will not pass without a trace for the greenback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the euro can be programmed to briefly drift below $1.10

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

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The greenback has risen in price by almost 1.2% over the past week. The strengthening of the US currency was primarily due to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could take a long pause after three consecutive interest rate cuts.

The dollar bulls were also supported by a series of relatively good US statistical data, the Fed's confidence in the strength of the country's economy and the sale of US Treasury bonds on the market.

In November, the yield on 10-year Treasuries, approaching the 2% mark, increased by 25 basis points, which made it possible for the USD index to win back part of the losses after sagging in October.

"In this short week because of the holiday in the US - the treasury market was closed on Monday in connection with Veterans Day - a new round of dollar growth will depend on whether the yield on 10-year securities exceeds 2%," ING currency strategists said.

This level of profitability has not been observed since the beginning of August, the period before the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Given that in other developed markets, rates are either much lower or completely negative, investing in treasuries now looks the most profitable.

"Breaking up the 2% mark is likely to mean a stronger dollar versus low-yielding currencies, especially against the yen, given that the correlation of the USD/JPY pair with US yields is very strong," ING representatives said.

However, they noted that the recent sale of eurozone bonds, which increased their yield, did not help the euro.

"The sell-off on the bond market also affected European markets, and a stronger yield curve provided some support for the besieged European banking sector. However, this did not transform in support of the euro, which can be planned out for a short-term drift below $1.10," the ING reported.

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According to experts, the main thing that the single European currency will experience in the coming days is the speech of US President Donald Trump at the Economic Club in New York (Tuesday) and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress (Wednesday), as well as German data GDP for the third quarter (Thursday).

At the weekend, the head of the White House said that Washington and Beijing would have very good trade negotiations, but the United States would only enter into a deal with China if it would be beneficial for the US side.

Now investors are waiting for D. Trump first of all explanations about the rollback of US tariffs on Chinese imports. However, he can report another important piece of news. In May, Washington took time to reflect until mid-November on the issue of increasing duties on deliveries of cars from the European Union to the US market. European officials believe that these duties will not be introduced, however, when dealing with an eccentric person like D. Trump, you can't be sure of anything.

Another important event of this week will be a speech by the head of the Fed to the Congress Joint Economic Committee, in the framework of which J. Powell will shed light on the further policy of the regulator. Last month, he made it clear that the last round of monetary easing was more likely a "reinsurance", and the market is waiting for the Fed chairman to confirm these words.

Meanwhile, expectations for German GDP data release are putting pressure on the euro. More than half of the 39 experts recently surveyed by Bloomberg predict a 0.1% decline in the third quarter. This will be evidence of a technical recession. Only three respondents expect to see the indicator grow by 0.1%, while the rest expect zero dynamics.

If Germany still manages to avoid a recession, then this will be good news for the bulls on the euro and allow them to go on the counterattack.

It is assumed that the speeches of D. Trump, J. Powell, as well as reports on German GDP and US retail sales will help answer the question of whether EUR/USD will be able to find the low near the bottom of the 10th figure. Falling quotes below November lows will open the way to 1.0965. A breakout of resistance at 1.1040–1.1045, on the contrary, will increase the chances of growth to 1.1075 and 1.1110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro – a life support for emerging markets currencies?

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

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The European currency seeks to score points and squeeze the greenback. According to experts, the euro almost managed to cope with this task, but only in relation to the currencies of developing countries. The greenback is still leading in the EUR/USD pair.

The popularity of the euro as a financing currency is constantly growing in the markets of developing countries. This year, sovereign issuers raised €51.2 billion ($56.4 billion). There are seven weeks left before the start of the new year, and this amount has already exceeded the previous record of €39.9 billion collected for 2016. According to economists, this means an increase in the issuance of new bonds by 80% year on year. At the same time, the issue of dollar bonds increased by only 2.7%. Analysts conclude that the euro takes away a significant market share from the greenback.

However, it is not so easy to push the greenback off the podium. The US currency remains a priority among emerging market governments. With regard to securities in euros, they now account for 30% of foreign borrowing. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the volume of receipts in debt funds of emerging markets reached $ 36.3 billion. In early autumn, sovereign sales of Eurobonds resumed, the flow of which slightly dried up in July-August 2019. They continue to this day.

Currently, the European currency is under pressure due to weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. On Tuesday, November 12, the wholesale price index was published, which slipped 0.1% last month. On an annualized basis, this indicator fell by 2.5%, analysts said.

At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair has continued its downward movement in the direction of the horizontal support level at 1.0989. After relatively good performance this morning in the range from 1.1035 to 1.1026, the pair began to sag again. The fall intensified, reaching 1.1021.

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Now the EUR/USD pair runs within the critical limits of 1,1014–1,1015, however, analysts believe that the low has not yet been passed.

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Analysts expect a correction from the EUR/USD pair and a further decline in the euro. However, the single currency seeks to maintain its position and not slide even further.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil returned to production

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Euphoria over the proximity of the agreement between China and the United States to end the trade war pulled up quotes of the Brent and WTI. Nevertheless, it was worth of Donald Trump to say that the issue of the rollback of import duties has not yet been resolved, China will notice an 11.5% increase in black gold imports in October, and Oman will declare at the OPEC+ meeting that the agreement on production cut would be extended in the previous volume, as the bulls in both varieties began to get nervous.

As I noted in several previous materials, the slowdown in shale production in the United States, on the one hand, and the reduction in its volumes by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries, on the other hand, have made the factor in changing global demand as the main driver of pricing. The slowdown in its growth under the influence of trade wars caused oil to fall from April to September, however, as soon as a turning point emerged in relations between Beijing and Washington, the situation changed radically. Speculators began to leave short positions and open long ones, and black gold added about 5% since the beginning of November.

The dynamics of speculative positions and quotes WTI

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China is the largest oil consumer in the world, therefore, an increase in its imports in January-October by 10.5% YOY made it possible for investors to raise the logical question: if a trade war does not prevent China from increasing purchases of black gold, is it worth expecting that an agreement between Beijing and Washington will sharply raise prices? It is possible that most of the positive has already been incorporated into the Brent and WTI quotes, so the agreement under Phase 1 will go unnoticed by the players.

Due to the prevailing principle of "buy by rumors, sell by facts" on the market, oil bulls may have problems after the OPEC+ signs an agreement on the extension of the Vienna agreement. It envisaged a decrease in production by 1.2 million bpd to March 2020. According to representatives of Oman, quotas will remain unchanged. Investors have no doubts about extending the terms of the agreement, so black gold can plunge into a wave of sales. Morgan Stanley believes that with such an outcome of the meeting between the cartel and Russia, prices for the North Sea grade will fall by 30% to $45 per barrel. Citigroup and BNP Paribas are afraid of the decline in Brent and WTI down to their lowest levels since the 1950s.

Only one thing is obvious - the discussions will be hot. Saudi Arabia needs North Sea growth of $84 per barrel and more to finance its wasteful spending, and Iran with its US sanctions - and $195 per barrel altogether. Opponents of further cutting, most likely, will talk about the loss of OPEC+ market share.

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $62.6 and $63.6 (Pivot levels) will make it possible for the Brent bulls to continue the rally in the direction of the targets for the Wolfe Wave and Shark patterns. They are located near the marks of $72.1 and $73.8 per barrel. On the contrary, the inability of buyers to storm important levels will increase the risks of declining quotes to $59.3 and $56.3.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: the pound is weighing the chances of success for the Tories in the early elections

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

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Today, the GBP/USD pair fell 0.2% to $1.2833, after rising 0.6% on Monday.

As Brexit party leader Nigel Faraj warned, Conservatives should not count on any additional compromises from his party.

This put pressure on GBP/USD, sending the pair to daily lows around 1.2825.

Recall that yesterday N. Faraj caused the pound to grow, saying that his party would not dispute the 317 seats of Conservatives in Parliament and decided not to nominate its candidates in those districts where the Tories won in the last election.

According to the leader of the Brexit party, such competition will only undermine the position of supporters of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union and play into the hands of their opponents. In addition, the victory of the Labour Party will increase the likelihood of a second referendum in the country. Accordingly, instead of competing with the Tories, the Brexit party will prefer the struggle for places with other rivals.

This increases the chances of Conservatives to get the majority of seats in the British Parliament and, therefore, to conclude a deal with the EU on the terms that London and Brussels agreed last month.

At the moment, the market is fixated on early December 12 elections in the UK and ignores most of the other events, and the pound's volatility is growing as opinion polls about how the voters vote.

According to recent polls, the Tories are gaining 39% of the vote, and the Labour Party is still 31%.

At the same time, new data reflect the negative impact of Brexit on the economy of the United Kingdom, which almost stepped into a recession.

According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the country's GDP expanded by only 1% in the third quarter compared to the previous year, demonstrating the lowest growth rates since early 2010.

The information released today showed that the British economy lost some jobs in the third quarter, and the number of vacancies was the largest in the year after the global financial crisis.

The upcoming elections in the UK Parliament are the third in four years, and they mean another attempt to break the impasse that the Brexit process has again entered and which has greatly affected business and investment activity in the country.

However, the election result is far from clear, and some economists and analysts fear that voting will only plunge the country's political system into the depths of chaos, while increasing uncertainty about the future development of the British economy and trade.

"Regardless of how the Brexit issue is resolved, the economic and financial power of the United Kingdom is likely to be weakened and more susceptible to economic shocks than previously thought," said Moody's rating agency.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. What do Conservatives and Labour offer to their voters?

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

We have repeatedly said that in the upcoming elections to the British Parliament, voters will vote not for this or that party, but for one or another Brexit outcome, which a certain party promises. However, Brexit is Brexit, and the country will have to live after it or during it (depending on how it all ends). Thus, the choice of this or that candidate will matter in the context of the country's future life, as well as its citizens, who will elect 650 country leaders on December 12. Today we offer you to familiarize yourself with the key campaign promises of the two largest parties in the UK. Few people doubt that either Conservatives or Labour would win.

The key issue is still Brexit. It excites and interests both the electorate and the government itself. Conservatives in this matter are fully in solidarity with their leader and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. They promise to bring the country's exit from the EU to the end and on time, that is, exactly on the new date - until December 31. Conservatives convince the population that it is time to end Brexit, which was elected by the people themselves, and finally tackle other equally important issues. For example, the country's economy, which after Brexit will have to deal very long and hard, or in the health sector. Conservatives also promise to sign an agreement with the European Union on free trade, and Boris Johnson also intends to sign a huge trade agreement with America after Brexit. Labour is more controversial on this issue. Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly been accused of not having a clear position on Brexit. Labour promises its voters to make a better deal with the European Union, and then hold a new referendum at which residents of the UK will be asked to choose between a new "deal" and to refuse to leave the EU. Other political parties have a different view of Brexit, but they have too little chance of winning the election. For example, the Liberal Democrats clearly oppose the country's exit from the EU, they propose to stop this procedure, and the Brexit party, on the contrary, supports the "hard" scenario of a "divorce" with the European Union, without concluding any agreements.

Things are more complicated on the defense issue. Conservatives want to leave the EU, in particular, because of defense differences. The UK is considered the most powerful military power of the European Union, along with France which possesses nuclear weapons, so in this matter, the EU needs Britain, and not vice versa. Laborites point out that the size of the British army in the last 10 years is only declining and promise to maintain NATO membership.

One of the most important issues in which the promises and positions of Labour and Conservatives are fundamentally different is the issue of migration. Conservatives believe that migrants from other European countries go to Britain for benefits and advocate restricting freedom of movement. It is for the purpose of stopping the flow of illegal immigrants that London wants to regain control of its borders. Labour on this issue take a softer position, believing that the human right to free movement should be preserved, and also call for abandoning the rule that a person's right to be in the country depends on his income and investment in the British economy.

We believe that election promises are stronger precisely with Conservatives. In principle, this is probably why they have regularly won elections in recent years. However, we also believe that even a coalition with the Brexit party will not bring an unambiguous victory to Boris Johnson, which would allow him to make decisions and laws on his own. We believe that the coalition parties will remain at their strength, which will allow them to continue to fight for Brexit and against the policy of Boris Johnson.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UBS: Wealthy investors expect markets to fall in 2020

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

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The S&P 500 monthly chart for 11/12/2019

UBS has published information that more than half of the largest investors expect global markets to fall in 2020. At the same time, investors keep at least 25% of their funds in money as insurance against falling stocks.

As shown above on the S&P 500 chart, you can see that the market is really quite ripe for a large-scale correction.

Possible causes of the fall include new aggravations of the Trump trade war between China and the US, as well as the presidential election in November 2020.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD. Trump Alignment: The market awaits the speech of the head of the White House at the Economic Club of New York

Trading 13 nov 2019 Commentaire »

After a slight price correction, the euro-dollar pair resumed its downward movement today, heading towards the bottom of the 10th figure. However, bears also show uncertainty in their abilities, because for the development of the downward trend they need to at least overcome the target of 1.0970 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). In the meantime, we can only talk about the EUR/USD flat, which is due to a contradictory fundamental background.

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The US dollar received tangible support from the Federal Reserve last week. Most of the speakers of the Fedmade it clear that they are satisfied with the current state of affairs, or rather, the current level of interest rates. Jerome Powell voiced a similar position following the results of the last meeting of the central bank. But he, in fact, left room for maneuver - according to him, the regulator can return to this issue if external risks negatively affect the dynamics of economic growth. In other words, the Fed is ready to continue to lower the interest rate if the trade war continues, and negotiations, respectively, once again fail.

Most likely, Powell will repeat the theses already voiced in Congress tomorrow. At the same time, it can be assumed that the tone of his rhetoric will depend on the results of today's speech by US President Donald Trump at the Economic Club in New York (approximately 16:00 London time). If the head of the White House speaks out positively regarding the deal with China, this will be an additional argument in favor of the Fed's wait-and-see attitude. Otherwise, the Fed chief's speech could be more unpredictable tomorrow.

The US president should clarify two global issues today. First, traders are interested in when the long-awaited first stage of a trade deal with China can be signed (and, in fact, what he agrees to do to make this happen). Secondly, investors are interested in the fate of US-European relations. Let me remind you that at the beginning of this year, Trump once again announced that he was ready to introduce 20 percent duties on cars and auto parts imported from EU countries, if the EU does not reduce or eliminate trade barriers against companies from the United States. But after months of thought, the US president postponed the matter until the end of the year. China played an important role in this, as another escalation of the trade war turned the attention of the White House to Beijing.

But now the six-month deferment is nearing completion, and Trump again needs to make a decision - either introduce duties, or again postpone this issue for six months or later. The automobile industry in Germany, France and Italy may be under attack - according to preliminary estimates, the total cost of the indicated duties is $300 billion. According to experts, in the event of an introduction of US duties, the domino effect will follow: the business climate in the eurozone countries will significantly deteriorate, thereby slowing the growth of already weak key indicators and the economy as a whole. The European Union did not remain in debt and said that in response it would prepare new duties on American goods worth 20 billion euros.

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According to the general opinion of the market, Trump will announce a prolongation of the pause in this matter. At least, on the eve of today's speech, such information appeared in the European press. But this morning, American journalists, referring to their sources in the White House, reported that there was no final decision, and given Trump's unpredictability, no one undertook to make any clear predictions about this. That is why the EUR/USD pair interrupted the corrective growth today. After all, if Trump still decides to open a "second front of the trade war," the European Central Bank will probably respond to this fact by expanding incentives - and already at the December meeting. The euro may strengthen its position if Trump announces another postponement, but it is unlikely that the growth of this currency will be large-scale. The US president will only follow the most anticipated scenario, so a statement of fact can simply be ignored by the market.

As for the "Chinese front", there is also a certain intrigue. The other day, Trump again returned to a rather militant rhetoric: he said that he would not fully abolish the introduced duties (which China requires), and the trade deal could be concluded "only on American soil" (Britain was previously discussed in this context). If today he again takes a tough stance, the dollar will negatively perceive this fact in view of a possible reaction from the Fed.

Thus, quite a bit of volatility is expected today at the close of the US session - especially if Trump will surprise the market with unpredictable decisions or statements.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com