*Bulgaria Dec HICP Flat On Year

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Bulgaria Dec HICP Flat On Year


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*Bulgaria Dec HICP Rises 0.5% On Month

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Bulgaria Dec HICP Rises 0.5% On Month


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*Bulgaria Dec Inflation 0.1% Vs. 0.4% In November

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Bulgaria Dec Inflation 0.1% Vs. 0.4% In November


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*Bulgaria Dec CPI Up 0.5% On Month Vs. +0.1% In November

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Bulgaria Dec CPI Up 0.5% On Month Vs. +0.1% In November


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*German Economic Recovery Slowed Down In Q4 2020, No Significant Setback – Bundesbank

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

German Economic Recovery Slowed Down In Q4 2020, No Significant Setback - Bundesbank


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Gold price action shows we might have seen a short-term bottom

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Gold price made a new lower low today at $1,809 but the RSI did not make a new low. Price was defended by bulls and we are now trading again above $1,830. The long lower tail in today's candlestick combined with a bullish RSI divergence could be very important for the next few sessions.

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Blue lines - bullish divergence

Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

Gold price is trading around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at the recent consolidation area of $1,827-$1,860. Bulls need to break above this short-term resistance. If resistance is broken, combined with a bullish divergence and a reversal off the 61.8% Fibonacci level, then we have a bullish mix of optimistic signs for the next week. Support is at $1,809 today's low. If this level is broken and the RSI does provide a new lower low then we should expect a move below $1,790.

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EURUSD reaches first pull back target

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

EURUSD has reached our 38% Fibonacci retracement level target. We were bearish some time now after showing the bearish break out of the bullish channel and the bearish RSI divergence.

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Red line - bearish divergence

Green line - support trend line

Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

EURUSD remains in a short-term bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. The RSI is still not in oversold levels. Price has just reached today the 38% Fibonacci level which was our target. Price is very likely to continue lower this week towards the green upward sloping medium-term trend line. This support is at 1.1975 where we also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Bears remain in control of the short-term trend. No sign of reversal or bottom yet.

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USDCAD breaks out of a downward sloping wedge pattern

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

USDCAD is trading at 1.2760. Price has broken the upper wedge boundary at 1.2730. It is important for bulls to stay above this break out level and continue making higher highs and higher lows. If this break out is confirmed, then we might see a big upward move in USDCAD towards 1.30-1.33.

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Red lines - bullish wedge pattern

Blue line- Bullish RSI divergence

USDCAD is moving higher. Last time we analyzed USDCAD we mentioned this bullish wedge pattern and the bullish RSI divergence. All signs were there for a move higher. Bears were warned. Price can now continue much higher towards 1.30-1.33. Bulls need to hold price above 1.2730-1.2750 on a weekly basis otherwise this would not be a real break out. Back testing the upper wedge boundary is usually seen after breakouts. So a pull back to back test 1.2720-1.2730 is very possible the next couple of days.

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EUR/USD: dollar risks further decline if global recovery accelerates

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

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This month, the USD exchange rate reached an almost three-year low, but since then the greenback has strengthened by more than 1%, which has given rise to talk about a reversal of the long-term downward trend of the US currency.

"The market is now in a state of anticipation, reflecting on whether higher yields on US government bonds can support the dollar or whether it will continue to decline," said strategists at Bank of Singapore.

"We think that the balance of risks is still shifted in favor of a reflationary environment and therefore risk sentiment should remain positive and we should see further weakening of the US currency," they added.

The Goldman Sachs specialists still adhere to the bearish outlook for the USD, expecting it to weaken in 2021 across the entire spectrum of the market.

"We continue to believe that the combination of an overvalued dollar, low nominal and real rates in the US, and a rapid global economic recovery will put pressure on the US currency throughout this year," they said.

According to the bank's forecast, the EUR/USD pair will be trading at 1.2500 in March, near 1.2700 in June, and around 1.2800 in December.

Towards the end of last week, the main currency pair renewed this year's lows below 1.2100.

The main factor of pressure on it was risk aversion, which played into the hands of a safe greenback.

The disappointing US statistics released on Friday increased the concerns of market participants about the country's economic prospects.

In December, retail sales in the United States fell 0.7% on a monthly basis. At the same time, the data for November was revised downward, showing a decline of 1.4% instead of 1.1%, as previously reported.

The deteriorating situation with the pandemic and the extension of quarantine restrictions in some countries, as well as the persistence of the risks of their tightening, raise concerns among investors about the global economic recovery.

However, the United States and the global economy have a resource for optimism that could improve market sentiment and negatively impact the defensive dollar.

Joe Biden will take over the White House on Wednesday. He is going to promote a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan and also wants to vaccinate 100 million Americans during his first 100 days in office. According to Anthony Fauci, a leading U.S. epidemiologist, this is an achievable goal.

Another source of optimism for dollar bears is the Fed. The head of the US Central Bank Jerome Powell last week confirmed the regulator's commitment to super-soft monetary policy. The Fed does not expect interest rates to rise before 2023.

As US exchanges are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, and Joe Biden is due to take office on Wednesday, the major pair is trading in a narrow range (1.2055-1.2085).

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair made a net breakdown of the key support at 1.2130. This could be a sign that the pair has already formed a short-term top. A breakdown of the 1.2055-1.2060 area will confirm the bearish sentiment of the pair and aim it at the psychologically important mark of 1.2000, a breakout of which will lay the foundation for further decline.

Attempts to recover EUR/USD may face resistance near 1.2100. The subsequent growth and breakdown of the former support around 1.2130 may trigger a short squeeze and send the pair to 1.2170-1.2175. Further strong resistance is at 1.2200 and 1.2210.

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January 18, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 18 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

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The EURUSD pair was trapped below the previous key-level (1.2000) until bullish breakout occured to the upside recently in December.

Further quick bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2150 just as expected after failing to find sufficient bearish pressure at retesting of the backside of the broken channel around 1.1970-1.2000 which corresponds roughly to Fibonacci Level of 0%.

Recently, the pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).

That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article.

Currently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 then 1.2000 is needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum to pursue bearish movement at least towards 1.1860 and 1.1770.

This would confirm the ongoing bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern by breaking below the pattern neckline around 1.2160.

On the other hand, Conservative traders should look for price action around the price zone around 1.2000-1.1975. This price zone stands as a Demand Zone which can offer bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD.

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