Oil prices have reached three-month highs, is it worth counting on continued growth?

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Today, black gold has been trading near maximum values since the end of November 2018 amid a reduction in oil production by OPEC member countries and optimistic expectations regarding the resolution of trade disputes between the United States and the Middle Kingdom.

Over the past week, the cost of raw materials of Brent brand increased by almost 6.7% and WTI - by 5.4%.

Should we expect a further increase in oil prices?

"The decline in the production of black gold by OPEC and non-cartel countries supports the oil rally, but the risks of a global recession are largely underestimated, so the growth of quotations can be replaced by their decline," Saxo Bank experts say.

According to Capital Economics experts, the likelihood that the rally will continue until the end of the year is low. They expect that the cost of raw materials of the Brent variety can sink to the level of $ 50 per barrel.

Analysts at Bank of America also see growing risks of lower oil prices in the medium term.

"It is assumed that in the coming months, black gold may fall in price due to increased production in the United States and falling global demand, but in the long-term horizon, it will be traded near current levels," representatives of the financial institute noted.

"The fact is that in addition to the "bearish" factors, there are potential "bullish". It is possible that participants in the OPEC + transaction may sacrifice market share for higher prices and further reduce the production of raw materials. In addition, quotes can be supported by lower capital spending, as well as geopolitics and inflation," they added.

According to their estimates, this year the cost of Brent crude oil averages $ 70 per barrel.

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Gold Hovers Near Two-week High

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices hovered near their highest level in more than two weeks on Monday and the dollar weakened as investors bet more progress would be made in U.S.-China trade talks.

Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,324.31 per ounce, just below a 9-month high of $1,326.30 an ounce marked on January 31. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,327.45 an ounce.

After five days of negotiations in Beijing, a statement from the White House noted that high level U.S.-China trade talks last week led to "progress between the two parties", but "much work remains."

The talks will continue in Washington this week as both sides race to reach a deal by the March 1 deadline.

Investors also watched the latest Brexit developments and pondered over the political fall-out from U.S. President Trump's decision to declare national emergency in a bid to fund his promised wall at the U.S.-Mexico border.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 18, 2019

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3228, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3228, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3228 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3228, while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3228. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3228 with the first target at the level of 1.3328; and continue towards 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the market will decline further to 1.3228-1.3200.

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*Pound Rises To 4-day High Of 1.2979 Versus Franc

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Pound Rises To 4-day High Of 1.2979 Versus Franc


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*Pound Advances To 5-day High Of 1.2939 Versus Dollar

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Pound Advances To 5-day High Of 1.2939 Versus Dollar


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 18, 2019

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913 in the long term. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

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Oil Prices Mixed As China Car Sales Tumble

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Oil prices were mixed on Monday after industry data showed China's sales in January fell 15.8 percent from last year, marking the seventh straight month of declining sales amid slowing growth and increasing trade frictions with the United States.

Global benchmark Brent crude was little changed at $66.30 per barrel as weak China data raised concerns about fuel demand in the world's second largest economy.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were, however, up 0.8 percent at $56.40 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended up $1.18 or 2.2 percent at $55.59 a barrel, a near 3-month high on Friday, lifted by recent data showing declines in crude output from OPEC and the U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

U.S.-China trade talks remain in focus as both sides race to reach a deal by the March 1 deadline.

The White House said the U.S. hopes to see additional progress as discussions at the ministerial and vice-ministerial levels continue in Washington this week.


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Thailand 2018 GDP Growth Fastest In 6 Years

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Thailand's economy expanded at the fastest pace six years in 2018, driven by stronger domestic demand that offset slowing export growth, but the momentum is likely to lose steam due to a general election and a sluggish global economy.

Gross domestic product grew 4.1 percent in 2018, after a 4 percent expansion in the previous year, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday. Both private consumption and investment grew at the fastest pace in six years, up 4.6 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. On the other hand, export growth eased to 7.7 percent from 9.8 percent. Imports rose 14.3 percent, after a 13.2-percent increase in 2017.

On the production side, manufacturing growth at 3 percent was the strongest among main categories. Growth in the wholesale and retail trade sector and the hotel and restaurants industry exceeded 7 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the Thai economy grew 3.7 percent year-on-year following a 3.2 percent expansion in the third quarter. GDP rose 0.8 percent from the previous quarter. The NESDC projected growth of 3.5 - 4.5 percent for 2019. The agency expects growth to be underpinned by continued strong growth in private consumption, investment, a recovery of tourism sector, and a clearer direction in global economy. Export growth was forecast to slow further to 4.1 percent. The agency forecast headline inflation in the range of 0.5 -1.5 percent and the current account surplus of 6.2 percent of GDP. "The balance of risks is tipped downward in view of an ongoing overhang of increasing global trade restrictions on exports and elevated political uncertainty domestically," ING economist Prakash Sakpal said.

The economist maintained the 2019 growth forecast of 3.8 percent and expects no more policy moves from the central bank this year. The Bank of Thailand left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent in February, after raising it in December for the first time in over seven years, citing future risks to financial stability. In December, the central bank lowered the growth projections for 2018 and 2019 to 4.2 percent and 4 percent, respectively.


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*UK Household Finances Deteriorate At Sharpest Rate Since March 2018: IHS Markit

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

UK Household Finances Deteriorate At Sharpest Rate Since March 2018: IHS Markit


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*UK Feb Household Finance Index 43.4 Vs. 44.7 In Jan – IHS Markit

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

UK Feb Household Finance Index 43.4 Vs. 44.7 In Jan - IHS Markit


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