GBP / USD analysis on September 14: The issue of passing Boris Johnson’s high-profile law remains on the agenda

Trading 14 sept 2020 Donner votre avis

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In the most global terms, the construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. So, for now, I can't say anything other than that the decline in quotes is likely to continue though everything will depend on the news background for the British. After several months of appreciation, markets have begun to sharply reduce demand for the British currency but the US dollar itself does not have enough reasons to increase. In the instrument with the Euro currency, for example, it does not grow at all. Thus, everything now depends on the news from the UK; as well as the attitude of the markets to them.

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Over the past trading day, the GBP/USD instrument has lost several dozens more base points and is presumably preparing to complete the construction of wave 1 or A as part of a new downward trend section. How strong and long this wave will turn out will depend entirely on the news background which is why such a strong decline in the British pound's quotes began. At the moment, the pair has moved away from the previously reached highs by 50-62% so the construction of an upward wave 2 or B now has a good chance of implementation.

The news background from the UK continues to be absolutely negative. It is even better to say that since the first of September, there have been only a few news articles but such articles that just killed the pound which had been doing quite well for several months before. However, first came news of the failure of the next two stages of negotiations between Brussels and London, which further reduced the likelihood of a free trade agreement. Then Boris Johnson set a new deadline for negotiations which further reduced the chances of a positive outcome of the negotiations. In the end, the British Prime Minister put to the vote a bill that involves changing the mechanism of trade with Northern Ireland and changing the customs regime which were previously agreed with the European Union. Thus, if the parliament approves Johnson's initiative, then a conflict may begin with the European Union in which the Brits would be wrong, since they are the ones who violate the previously signed Brexit agreement and the principles of international law. All this, of course, had a negative impact on the British position. However, if the UK Parliament approves the "Johnson act" this week then I will expect a new drop in demand for the British.

On Monday, news and economic reports are not listed in the calendar. Thus, I believe that there will be no major price changes today. A corrective upward wave is overdue, but it is unlikely to start if the Parliament votes "Yes".

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Pound-Dollar instrument presumably completed the construction of the upward wave Z and the entire upward trend section. At the same time, there is a high probability of building a correction wave 2 or B, but it is also unclear what the results of the Parliamentary vote will be. Thus, I would recommend waiting for news from the UK now and trading based on them. If you look only at the wave pattern, I would say that the instrument now has a good opportunity to return to the level of 1.3013, which corresponds to 38.2% of the Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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