GBP / USD analysis on 04/11/2020: The focus is on the US election. Trump has already declared himself the winner

Trading 04 Nov 2020 Donner votre avis

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The construction of an ascending three-wave section of the trend, which begins on September 23, may already be completed. At this time, the wave patterns of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments are very similar. For the Euro, I assume that the construction of a new downward section of the trend will begin; possibly a three-wave one. The same can be said about the Pound/Dollar instrument. At the same time, I recommend waiting a couple of days for the US election to end and the markets to calm down after a fairly strong and important news background. After that, you will need to make additions to the wave markup and draw new conclusions.

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The wave marking on the lower chart does not look so convincing. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level indicates that the markets are not ready for further falls. However, the third wave of the uptrend looks quite convincing and complete now and the minimum of the expected wave 2 or b has not yet been broken by the markets. So the situation is confusing right now. I hope for a correlation with the Euro/Dollar instrument, which has a very high probability of building a new three-wave section of the trend. Thus, a successful attempt to break through the 50.0% level will indicate that the instrument is ready for further decline.

While the vote count continues in America, the current President of the country, Donald Trump, declared himself the winner. Despite the fact that there are no official voting results yet, Trump has already declared victory in key States. "We win in Ohio, Texas, we won in North Carolina. In addition, we will win in Pennsylvania, by a huge margin, this is the most important thing. We got 690,000 more votes in this state (compared to Joe Biden)," Trump said. The President also said that he will appeal to the Supreme Court if there are any grounds to suggest fraud on the part of the Democrats. First, in the coming days, we will most likely find out how the votes were distributed. Further, there is no doubt that Donald Trump will actually go to court in case of defeat. It is not yet possible to say how long the proceedings will last and what the claims will be. Secondly, in 41 days, the US President will be chosen by the same electors from each state, of which there are 538 in total. That is, over the next 41 days, the situation may change several more times, given the possible legal proceedings that will inevitably follow from either side. Moreover, as we can see, at the moment the gap between the opponents is minimal. This means that the revision of the results in one state may well be enough for the election results to take a 180 degree turn. The question is how the markets will react to the final election results and all possible future events. It is unlikely that the US Dollar will rise on them, although the wave markup is now leaning towards this option.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Pound-Dollar Instrument has presumably completed the construction of an uptrend section. However, I do not recommend selling the instrument until a successful attempt to break the 1.2860 mark, which corresponds to 50.0% of the Fibonacci. If a successful breakout attempt takes place, I recommend selling with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.2719 and 1.2543, which is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% for Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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