GBP: hope for a "soft" Brexit remains but declines every day

Trading 01 fév 2019 Donner votre avis

While some experts point to the growing risk of UK withdrawal from the EU without a deal and believe that the pound's collapse is just a matter of time, others believe that London will try to postpone Brexit instead, from which the British currency will benefit.


In particular, the specialists of Deutsche Bank, who previously recommended to take the "longs" in the British currency, now hold a neutral position.

"We believe that Malthouse compromise has almost zero chance of success in the European Union", they said.

According to experts at Nordea Bank, the vote, which took place in the House of Commons last Tuesday, pushed the United Kingdom closer to a controlled exit without a deal.

"We do not share the optimism of investors about Brexit and in their place would not be so careless about the threat of lack of agreement," said representatives of the financial institute.

They advised selling the pound against the euro with a target of 89.50.

"The psychological game between Britain and the EU seems to have entered a crucial phase this Tuesday. At the moment this does not seem to be taken into account by the markets in prices. However, the main question is whether the deal is possible in principle, given the fact that there are still important differences between Brussels and London. Most likely, the pound will return the newly scored points against the euro and the dollar and go to levels of € 0.89 and $ 1.29, that is, where the last "British" rally began, "said analysts at Credit Agricole.

In turn, UniCredit currency strategists maintain a positive attitude towards sterling and expect a revival of interest in currency purchases closer to February 13 if the British parliament will hold a second vote on the divorce agreement.

"We proceed from the fact that chaotic Brexit or exit without a deal can still be avoided," they said.

"In our opinion, an extension of the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty may be required, even if eventually the parties reach an agreement. A pound may strengthen against the Swiss franc amid rising expectations of a second referendum or the implementation of a "soft" scenario, "BNP Paribas believes.

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