EUR / USD. November 5. The trading system. "Regression Channels". NonFarm Payrolls return demand for US dollar

Trading 05 nov 2018 Donner votre avis

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 46.0585

The EUR / USD currency pair on Friday, November 2, began a downward movement and returned to the moving average line. Traders who resumed sales, did absolutely logical, given the fundamental background of the last trading day of the week. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone was worse than expected. The NonFarm Payrolls in the States significantly exceeded the expectations of traders (250K vs. 190K forecast). Since the number of new jobs created outside agriculture has always been a very important indicator, the corresponding reaction followed. For the European currency, there is a very important question now, can it continue its upward movement, even if it is not strong? Given the continuing negative news for the Eurozone, there are few chances for that. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States often also plays against the euro. From our point of view, only one thing can save the euro now, the conclusion of a Brexit agreement between London and Brussels. If this happens, then the euro and the pound can get good support for a while. On Monday, November 5, in the States, the publication of business activity indexes in the areas of services and production of Markit and ISM are scheduled. If these reports do not disappoint traders, then the US dollar may be in high demand on the first trading day of the week.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has adjusted to the moving average. If the price rebounds from it, then the upward movement may still resume with the target of 1.1475. A signal to the discovery of new long positions in small lots will be a reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator.

Short positions are recommended to open with the target of 1.1292 if the pair consolidates back below the moving and, preferably, the Murray level of "2/8". In this case, it is highly likely that the downward trend in the instrument will resume.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

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