EUR / USD. 31st of December. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Hopes for euro growth do not come true

Trading 01 jan 2019 Donner votre avis

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 49.5263

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, December 31, began a downward movement, once again failing to overcome the resistance zone of 1.1440 - 1.1470. So far, for European currency, these exchange rate values are the limit. Indeed, there are no compelling reasons for a stronger strengthening of the euro. Especially considering the status of the holiday, the last 5-6 days. No important macroeconomic information was published these days. There have been no reports from the leaders of the EU and the ECB. Thus, traders in these could only sum up the results of the year and record profits on positions on the eve of holidays. Perhaps it was thanks to the fixation of profits on the "dollar" positions, of which in 2018 much more than the opposite was open, the euro went up at the end of the year. In general, the balance of power between the States and the EU has not yet changed dramatically. Yes, in 2019, the course on tightening the monetary policy of the Fed can be completed. At the same time, the ECB has finally completed the course of quantitative stimulation of the economy and may even start thinking about the first increase in the key rate in a long time. However, so far neither the first condition nor the second one has been fulfilled, and the situation with Brexit has not been resolved, the euro may continue to remain under market pressure. In the current situation, Donald Trump may come to the aid of the euro currency with yet another scandal or discouragement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1414

S2 - 1.1383

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1444

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1505

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has started a downward movement, settling above the moving average. Thus, the longs now remain relevant small lots with a target of 1.1475, but after the completion of the correction, which will be signaled by the Heikin Ashi indicator.

Sell orders are recommended to open with the goal of 1.1383 if the bears manage to overcome the moving average line. In this case, for some time, the tendency for the instrument to change to downward.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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