*Latvia Oct Producer Prices -1.3% On Year Vs. -2.1% In September

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Latvia Oct Producer Prices -1.3% On Year Vs. -2.1% In September


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Poland Retail Sales Drop In October

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Poland's retail sales dropped in October, figures from Statistics Poland showed on Friday.

Retail sales fell 2.3 percent year-on-year in October, after a 4.6 percent growth in the same month last year.

Sales of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels declined 13.4 percent yearly in October. Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear, and motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts decreased by 9.7 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively.

Sales of newspapers, books, other sale in specialized stores fell 3.7 percent and those of food, beverages and tobacco products declined 2.0 percent.

On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 2.1 percent in October.

At current prices, retail sales grew 2.1 percent annually in October. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent fall.

In the January to October period, retail sales decreased 3.0 percent from a year ago.


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Taiwan Industrial Production Growth Slows, Jobless Rate Falls

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Taiwan's industrial production rose at a softer pace in October and the unemployment rate fell marginally during the month, official figures showed on Monday.

Industrial production rose 7.06 percent year-on-year in October, after a 11.62 percent increase in September, data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs revealed.

Manufacturing output increased 7.63 percent annually in October, after a 12.24 percent rise in the previous month.

Production in mining and quarrying gained 3.49 percent. Output of electricity and gas supply, and water supply grew 0.62 percent and 1.58 percent, respectively.

On a monthly basis, industrial production declined 0.56 percent in October, after a 2.82 percent increase in the preceding month.

Data from the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics showed that the unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 3.77 percent in October from 3.78 percent in September.

On an unadjusted basis, the jobless rate rose to a non-adjusted 3.80 in October from 3.83 percent in the prior month.

The number of unemployed persons decreased to 455,000 in October from 458,000 in the previous month.


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GBP/USD Hot Forecast For 23 November

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Highlights

  • GBP/USD has been rising on vaccine and Brexit optimism.

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GBP/USD has hit a fresh two-month high. From a technical perspective, a sustained move beyond the 1.33 horizontal resistance might have already set the stage for additional gains in the early sessions.

However, any subsequent move up is more likely to meet resistance near the top barrier of a short-term ascending trend channel. The mentioned barrier is near the 1.3400 round figure mark region.

The pair might then surpass the 1.3400 mark and aim towards testing September daily highs, around the 1.3480 region and then testing the key 1.3500 psychological mark.

On the flip side, the 1.330 resistance breakpoint now seems to support the immediate downside and is followed by support near the 1.311 region. A convincing breakthrough at 1.330 will turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide further to the 1.311 region.

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Gold Slips On Improving Risk Appetite

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as bets for further U.S. monetary stimulus and hopes that trial successes of Covid vaccines can help an effective rollout of shots across the world boosted investors' risk appetite.

Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $1,868.23 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,866.65.

After declining to extend several emergency loan programs established jointly with the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday reassured markets that the U.S. central bank and Treasury had many tools left to support the economy.

The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both have the minutes of their last meetings out this week, with investors looking for further indications that they are ready to add stimulus in light of the surge in coronavirus cases.

Meanwhile, after a string of encouraging vaccine results in recent weeks, the Oxford University and British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca announced that their vaccine for the novel coronavirus could be around 90 percent effective under one dosing regimen.

"Today marks an important milestone in our fight against the pandemic. This vaccine's efficacy and safety confirm that it will be highly effective against Covid-19 and will have an immediate impact on this public health emergency," AstraZeneca chief executive Pascal Soriot said in a statement.

One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90 percent when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62 percent efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart.

The combined analysis from both dosing regimens (n=11,636) resulted in an average efficacy of 70 percent, it was said.


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November 23, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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In July, the GBP/USD pair has expressed an Ascending Flag Pattern above the price level of 1.2780.

Shortly after, bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.3300 was achieved. This was supposed to allow bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3400 as a final projection target for the suggested pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair failed to do so. Instead, another bearish movement was targeting the price level of 1.2840 and 1.2780 where bullish SUPPORT existed allowing another bullish movement initially towards 1.3000 which failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum.

That's why, the recent bullish breakout above 1.3000 has enabled further bullish advancement towards 1.3250-1.3270 where the upper limit of the new movement channel came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Further bullish advancement is being expressed towards 1.3380-1.3400 where the pair looks overbought after failure of the previous price zone to offer sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Upon the current bullish pullback, price action should be watched around the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) for signs of bearish pressure as a valid SELL Entry can be offered.

Initial bearish target would be located at 1.3300 and 1.3250. While S/L should be placed above 1.3450.

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November 23, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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Intraday traders should have noticed the recent bearish closure below 1.1700. This indicated bearish domination for the market on the short-term.

However, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum below 1.1625 (38% Fibonacci Level). Instead, another bullish breakout was being demonstrated towards 1.1870 which corresponded to 76% Fibonacci Level.

As mentioned in previous articles, the price zone of 1.1870-1.1900 stood as a solid SUPPLY Zone corresponding to the backside of the broken channel.

Moreover, the recent bearish H4 candlestick closure below 1.1770 was mentioned in previous articles to indicate a valid short-term SELL Signal. All bearish targets were already reached at 1.1700 and 1.1630 where the current bullish recovery was initiated.

The current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1870-1.1900 is supposed to be considered for signs of bearish rejection and another valid SELL Entry. S/L should be placed just above 1.1950.

Bearish closure and persistence below 1.1777 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance further bearish decline at least towards 1.1630.

Otherwise, another bullish pullback towards 1.1870-1.1900 should be considered for another valid SELL Entry.

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November 23, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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In October, Two opportunities for SELL Entries were offered upon the recent upside movement towards 1.1880-1.1900. All target levels were achieved.

However, after such downside movement, evident signs of bullish reversal were demonstrated around the depicted price levels of 1.1600.

Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a significant BUYING Pattern after the recent upside breakout above the depicted price zone (1.1750-1.1780) was achieved.

As mentioned in the previous article, the pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1920 which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1800 which constituted a prominent KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Recently, the price zone around 1.1840 was mentioned as a prominent KeyZone to be watched for Price Action. Since, then, the pair has been failing to breakthrough below it.

That's why, another upside movement is being expressed towards 1.1900-1.1920 where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Moreover, Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.1840 is needed to enhance a quick bearish decline towards 1.1750.

Trade Recommendations :-

Currently, the price zone around 1.1880-1.1920 ( backside of the broken trendline ) stand as significant Resistance-Zone to offer a valid SELL Entry. Exit level should be placed above 1.1940.

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Oil Extends Gains On Vaccine Hopes

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Oil prices climbed on Monday as more positive news on the vaccine front raised hopes about a recovery in fuel demand.

Benchmark Brent crude jumped 1.8 percent to $45.86 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 1.6 percent at $43.09.

Both benchmarks soared 5 percent last week amid positive news about the efficacy of coronavirus vaccines and hopes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers will keep crude output in check.

Positive sentiment continues to be driven by the recent good news about the efficacy of coronavirus vaccines in development.

After a string of encouraging vaccine results in recent weeks, the Oxford University and British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca announced that their vaccine for the novel coronavirus could be around 90 percent effective under one dosing regimen.

"Today marks an important milestone in our fight against the pandemic. This vaccine's efficacy and safety confirm that it will be highly effective against Covid-19 and will have an immediate impact on this public health emergency," AstraZeneca chief executive Pascal Soriot said in a statement.

One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90 percent when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62 percent efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart.

The combined analysis from both dosing regimens (n=11,636) resulted in an average efficacy of 70 percent, it was said.

OPEC meets on November 30 and December 1 and it seems investors have already factored in a three-month delay of production increases.


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Eurozone Private Sector Shrinks In November Amid Covid-19 Lockdowns

Trading 23 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The euro area private sector contracted sharply in November as member countries reintroduced more restrictions to counter the spread of Covid-19 infection, flash survey data from IHS Markit showed Monday.

The composite output index plunged to a six-month low of 45.1 from the neutral 50.0 in October. The score was forecast to fall to 45.8.

The further downturn of the economy signaled for the fourth quarter represents a major set-back to the region's health and extends the recovery period, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit said.

After a 7.4 percent contraction of GDP in 2020, IHS Markit expects only a 3.7 percent expansion in 2021.

The drop in the composite index to well below 50 adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will post another sizeable contraction in the fourth quarter, Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

But with vaccines looking increasingly likely to be rolled out in the first half of next year, the surveys show greater optimism about 2021.

The deteriorating performance was broad-based, albeit with the service sector hardest hit from virus containment measures.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index slid to 41.3 from 46.9 in the previous month. The reading was seen at 42.5.

At the same time, the manufacturing PMI came in at 53.6, down moderately from 54.8 in October. The expected score was 53.1.

Inflows of new orders advanced in manufacturing at the slowest rate recorded over the past five months, while new business placed at service providers collapsed to an extent not seen since May.

Employment fell across the Eurozone as a whole for a ninth consecutive month in November. Further, companies resorted to discounting to boost sales in the service sector, causing selling prices to fall at a faster pace. Meanwhile, goods prices increased at the fastest pace since May 2019 due to higher input costs.

Looking ahead, business expectations about the coming 12 months recovered most of the slump seen in October to run at the second highest since February.

Divergent trends were also seen across the region, with Germany again bucking the wider downturn.

Germany's private sector growth moderated to a five-month low in November due to the tightening of Covid-19 restrictions.

The composite output index dropped to 52.0 in November from 55.0 in October. The reading was forecast to fall sharply to 50.4.

At 46.2, the services Purchasing Managers' Index reached a 6-month low. The score was forecast to drop to 46.3 from 49.5 in October.

At the same time, the factory PMI came in at an elevated level of 57.9, but down from 58.2 a month ago. The expected reading was 56.5.

Elsewhere, France's private sector contracted at the fastest pace in six months in November predominantly driven by the weakness in services.

The composite output index fell to 39.9 from 47.5 in October. Nonetheless, the reading was above economists' forecast of 34.0.

The flash services PMI dropped notably to 38.0 from 46.5 a month ago but slightly above the forecast of 37.7.

At the same time, the manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 in November versus 51.3 in the previous month. The score was expected to drop moderately to 50.1.


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