Loonie Drops Following Canada Retail Sales

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

After the release of Canada retail sales for December at 8.30 am ET Friday, the loonie dropped against its major rivals.

The loonie was trading at 1.3134 against the greenback, 83.41 against the yen, 0.8987 against the aussie and 1.4493 against the euro around 8:32 am ET.


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*Canadian Retail Sales Climb 0.9% In November

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Retail Sales Climb 0.9% In November


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Loonie Mixed Ahead Of Canada Retail Sales

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

At 8.30 am ET Friday, Canada retail sales for December are due. Ahead of the data, the loonie traded mixed against its major rivals. While the loonie rose against the euro, it held steady against the rest of major rivals. The loonie was worth 1.3128 against the greenback, 83.50 against the yen, 0.8983 against the aussie and 1.4484 against the euro as of 8:25 am ET.


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UK Private Sector Expands For First Time In 5 Months

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

The UK private sector returned to growth in January as the receding political uncertainty lifted new orders, survey results from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply showed Friday.

The flash composite output index rose to a 16-month high of 52.4 in January from 49.3 in December.

The headline reading registered above the crucial 50 score for the first time since August 2019. The score was also above the forecast of 50.7.

The survey is indicative of GDP rising at a quarterly rate of approximately 0.2 percent in January, representing a welcome revival of growth after the malaise seen in the closing months of 2019, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said.

"It seems likely that the rise in the PMI kills off the prospect of an imminent rate cut by the Bank of England, with policymakers taking a wait and see approach as they assess the performance of the economy in the post-Brexit environment," Williamson added.

The rebound in the PMIs and the prospect of a further boost from fiscal policy in the Budget on March 11 will probably be enough for the BoE to decide that the economy is moving in the right direction and it doesn't need an extra push from lower interest rates, Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The service sector expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year and the manufacturing sector moved closer to stagnation.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index advanced more-than-expected to 52.9 in January from 50.0 a month ago. The expected level was 51.1.

At the same time, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 from 47.5 in the previous month and above the forecast of 48.8.

New work grew the most since September 2018 as reduced political uncertainty following the general election had a positive impact on business and consumer spending decisions at the start of the year.

Employment numbers advanced for the second straight month. Additional staff hiring was underpinned by a sustained rebound in output growth projections with business optimism hitting highest since mid 2015.

Input price inflation was the highest for four months. Average prices charged by firms increased at the fastest pace since May 2019.


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Eurozone Private Sector Logs Moderate Growth

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

The euro area private sector grew at the same moderate pace as seen in the final month of 2019, reflecting muted pace of new order growth, flash survey data from IHS Markit showed Friday.

The composite output index held steady at 50.9 in January, indicating a further muted increase in activity across the currency bloc. The score was expected to rise to 51.1. However, a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

The unchanged reading for the composite PMI in January leaves it still consistent with fairly slow GDP growth, Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist at Capital Economics, said. The economy is likely to continue to grow at a meager pace in 2020.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.2 from 52.8 in the previous month. This was also below the forecast of 53.0.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 in January from 46.3 a month ago. The reading was expected to climb moderately to 46.8. Nonetheless, the sector remained in negative zone.

While rates of growth in output and new orders remained muted, companies were increasingly confident regarding the year ahead outlook for activity as sentiment rose to a 16-month high. Further, the rate of job creation quickened from that seen at the end of 2019.

On the inflation front, the survey showed that the rate of input cost inflation quickened to an eight-month high. In turn, companies raised their selling prices which was broadly in line with those seen through the second half of 2019.

The survey showed that the combined growth of the 'big-2' eurozone economies picked up, but this was offset by near-stagnation across the rest of the single-currency area.

"Overall, a stable picture for both growth and inflation will likely reassure the European Central Bank that they are safe to keep monetary policy fixed for now while carrying out a strategy review," Andrew Harker, an associate director at IHS Markit, said.

Germany's private sector gained momentum in January as services activity grew at the fastest pace in five months amid a slower decline in manufacturing.

The flash composite output index rose more-than-expected to 51.1 in January from 50.2 in December. This was the highest score in five months and above the forecast of 50.5.

The services PMI hit a five-month high of 54.2 versus 52.9 in the previous month. The reading was forecast to rise marginally to 53.0.

Although the manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high of 45.2 in January from 43.7 a month ago, the reading was well below the neutral 50. Economists had forecast a reading of 44.5.

Elsewhere, France's private sector grew at the slowest pace in four months in January. The flash composite output index fell to 51.5 in January from 52.0 in December. The reading was forecast to remain unchanged at 52.0.

Although service providers continued to outperform manufacturers, the former saw activity growth ease to the weakest in four months.

The services PMI came in at 51.7, down from 52.4 a month ago and below the forecast of 52.2.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose more-than-expected to 51.0 from 50.4 in December. The expected reading was 50.6.


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Czech Economic Confidence Falls In January

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

The Czech Republic's economic confidence weakened in January after rising in the previous month, survey results from the Czech Statistical Office showed on Friday.

The economic sentiment index fell to 98.1 in January from 99.1 in December. In November, the confidence index stood at 98.5.

Likewise, the business confidence index decreased to 96.7 in January from 96.8 in the previous month.

The industrial sentiment index declined to 91.1 in January from 93.0 in the preceding month.

The measure of confidence in construction came in at 123.9 in January, down from 126.3 in the prior month, while that in trade rose to 98.3 from 94.6.

The consumer confidence fell to 104.8 in January from 110.0 a month ago.


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Spain Producer Prices Decline At Slower Pace In December

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Spain producer prices declined at a slower rate in December, data from the statistical office INE showed on Friday.

The producer price index fell 1.9 percent on year in December, following a revised 2.4 percent decrease in November. Prices have declined for the seventh straight month.

Excluding energy, producer prices rose 0.3 percent in December, in contrast to a 0.1 percent fall in the previous month.

Among components, prices for non-durable goods grew 1.6 percent annually in December. Consumer goods prices rose 1.6 percent and capital goods prices gained 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, prices for energy and intermediate goods declined 6.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices fell 0.5 percent in December, following a 0.6 percent decrease in the prior month. This was the second consecutive decrease in prices.


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Austria Production Index Falls In November

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Austria's production index declined in November on weaker industrial output, data from Statistics Austria showed on Friday.

The production index decreased 2.1 percent year-on-year in November, following a 0.8 percent fall in October.

Industrial output fell 4.5 percent annually in November, while construction rose 5.1 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, production index dropped 1.7 percent in November, after a 0.8 percent rise in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, industrial and construction output declined 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.


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January 24, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 6, a bullish swing was initiated around 1.1040 allowing another bullish breakout above 1.1110 to pursue towards 1.1175 within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

Initial Intraday bearish rejection was expected around the price levels of (1.1175).

On December 20, bearish breakout of the depicted short-term channel was executed.

Thus, further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1065 where significant bullish recovery has originated.

Shortly-after, another bullish pullback towards 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) was suggested to be watched for bearish rejection and another valid SELL entry.

Suggested bearish position has achieved its targets while approaching the price levels around 1.1110.

However, the Key-Level around 1.1110 has provided some bullish demand. This was followed by a bullish pullback towards 1.1140 and 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located.

Recently, evident signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around 1.1175. That's why, quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1110.

As expected in a previous article, bearish persistence below 1.1110 enabled further bearish decline towards 1.1060 then 1.1040 where some bullish rejection may be expressed.

Currently, the EURUSD pair has a recently-established Supply Level around 1.1080-1.1090 to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback is expressed.

Trade recommendations :

Few days ago, Intraday traders were advised to consider the recent bullish pullback towards 1.1110-1.1120 as a valid SELL signal. Bearish projection targets were achieved around 1.1060 and 1.1040.Any bullish pullback towards the backside of the recently-broken trend around 1.1080-1.1090 should be considered for another valid SELL entry.

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Euro Pulls Back Despite Strong German, Eurozone PMIs

Trading 24 jan 2020 Commentaire »

The euro came off from its early highs against its most major rivals in European deals on Friday, despite strong flash PMI readings from Germany and Eurozone.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed that the euro area private sector grew at the same moderate pace as seen in the final month of 2019.

The composite output index held steady at 50.9 in January. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The score was expected to rise to 51.1.

Separate data showed that Germany's private sector gained momentum in January as services activity grew at the fastest pace in five months amid a slower decline in manufacturing.

The flash composite output index rose more-than-expected to 51.1 in January from 50.2 in December. This was the highest score in five months and above forecast of 50.5.

The euro has been under pressure after ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a slightly dovish tone than some had expected. Lagarde reiterated hat risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside.

The euro fell to near a 2-month low of 1.1032 against the greenback, from a high of 1.1062 hit at 3:30 am ET. The next possible support for the euro is seen around the 1.08 level.

The euro pared gains to 120.84 against the yen, from a high of 121.26 set at 3:30 am ET. The euro is seen finding support around the 118.00 region.

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs showed that Japan's inflation accelerated in December but remained well below the 2 percent target.

Consumer price inflation increased to 0.8 percent in December from 0.5 percent a month ago. This was also above economists' forecast of 0.7 percent.

The euro dropped back to 1.0710 against the franc in subdued trading. On the downside, 1.06 is possibly seen as the next support level for the euro.

In contrast, the euro appreciated to 0.8432 against the pound, off its early more than a 5-week low of 0.8386. If the euro rises further, it may find resistance around the 0.86 region.

Survey results from IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply showed that the UK private sector returned to growth in January driven by a sharp rise in new work.

The composite output index rose to a 16-month high of 52.4 in January from 49.3 in December.

Looking ahead, Canada retail sales for December and Markit's U.S. manufacturing PMI for January are scheduled for release in the New York session.


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