Technical analysis for Gold for April 19, 2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price remains in a bearish short-term trend. Gold price broke below important support levels but the move lower has not extended yet towards our $1,250-60 target area. Price has only reached as low as $1,270.

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Green rectangle - major support area now resistance

Red rectangle - target

Black line - major resistance trend line

Gold price as explained in previous posts might first need to make a back test of the broken support now resistance area of $1,280-90. The RSI has broken through the blue trend line support but is also turning upwards. This could mean a bounce towards $1,290 could come over the next few sessions. As long as price is below the black trend line resistance medium-term trend remains bearish and Gold is vulnerable to a move towards $1,250-$1,220.

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Elliott Wave analysis of ETH/USD for 19/04/2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Crypto Industry News:

The founder and CEO of Tron, Justin Sun, claimed that in his opinion the Tron ecosystem would "officially collaborate" with Ethereum later this year. Sun spoke during the interview on the podcast The Crypto Chick.

More specifically, Sun said that, according to him, "even in the course of this year, we will see that the Throne is cooperating, officially cooperating with Ethereum." In answer to the question about the last tweets of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin on the subject of Tron, Sun stated: |I think that in the future we will be working with many Ethereum developers, as well as with companies built on Ethereum to improve this industry".

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has hit the technical resistance level at 173.50 and reversed quickly towards the technical support at the level of 166.53. Any breakout below this level of support would indicate that a possible short-term top is already in place and the market will now penetrate the lower price levels in order to complete the corrective cycle.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $201

WR2 - $192

WR1 - $173

Weekly Pivot - $164

WS1 - $148

WS2 - $138

WS3 - $120

Trading Recommendations:

The daytraders should have closed the buy orders at the level of 173.50 as this was the take profit level for the up move. No open trades for now for daytraders.

The best trading strategy for this market for swing traders is to trade with the longer-timeframe trend, which is now an uptrend. The good level to place a buy order was just above the level of $152. This point of view is valid as long as the technical support at the level of $151 is broken.

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Elliott Wave analysis of BTC/USD for 19/04/2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

The Japanese financial regulator, the Financial Services Agency (FSA), no longer wants to describe Bitcoin as a virtual currency. During the plenary session of the 41st General Assembly of the Financial Council and the 29th Meeting of the Financial Division, Professor Iwashita Goto from the Public Policy Graduate School of Kyoto University asked the members to adjust their views on Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency, he claimed, became more than a way to deal, because of its boundless qualities that led her to appear all over the world in her ten-year history. "I do not think it's worth being called Bitcoin virtual currency" - he concluded.

Comments appear while Japan continues to formalize its domestic cryptocurrency industry. Following the introduction of incentive regulations, the FSA began issuing licenses to new cryptocurrency markets that want to serve the Japanese market.

Technical Market Overview:

The last wave to the upside looks completed as the market has hit the technical resistance zone located between the levels of $5,290 - $5,309 and reversed towards the level of $5,182 which will now act as technical support for the price. If the down move will accelerate below this support, the next targets are seen at the levels of $5,000 and $4,942.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $5,898

WR2 - $5,642

WR1 - $5,340

Weekly Pivot - $5,108

WS1 - $4,789

WS2 - $4,547

WS3 - $4,228

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy for this market for daytraders is to sell the end of the local correction in wave B around the level of $5,290 - $5,309 with a target at the levels of $4,942 and $4,899. The final target is seen at the level of $4,800.

The best strategy for the swing traders is to trade with the longer-timeframe trend, which is now an uptrend. The best level for opening the buy orders is around the level of $4,800. This point of view is valid as long as the technical support at the level of $4,795 is broken.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 19/04/2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Technical Market Overview:

We finally have some movement on the GBP/USD pair. The market has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.3012 and 1.2996. Currently, the price has hit technical support at the level of 1.2977 and bounced a little. It looks like the down move has not been finished yet despite the oversold market conditions as the momentum remains weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2960 - 1.2930 (key technical support zone).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3225

WR2 - 1.3177

WR1 - 1.3116

Weekly Pivot - 1.3067

WS1 - 1.3006

WS2 - 1.2961

WS3 - 1.2904

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy for this market for daytraders is to trade the oversold/overbought conditions and support-resistance levels. The swing traders must stay patient and wait for a breakout. The key support and resistance levels are drawn on the chart.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 19/04/2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a Double Top price formation at the level of 1.1323 that was confirmed by two Bearish Engulfing candlestick formations as well. Since then the market has broken the technical support at the levels of 1.1285, 1.1273 and 1.1249. Moreover, the price has fallen out of the corrective channel as well, so now the top is confirmed. The local low was made at the level of 1.1226, just above the technical support at the level of 1.1220. It does not look like the end of the down move yet and the next targets are seen at the levels of 1.1210 and even 1.1176.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1459

WR2 - 1.1387

WR1 - 1.1347

Weekly Pivot - 1.1275

WS1 - 1.1236

WS2 - 1.1164

WS3 - 1.1121

Trading Recommendations:

The sell orders that were placed as close to the level of 1.1323 with a protective stop loss at the level of 1.1332 should be still open. The are chances that the market will return to the down move soon. Any violation of the level of 1.1176 is the first indication of a downtrend resuming.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for April 19, 2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped below 1.1280 levels yesterday taking longs out, but we were at a minimum risk. The trade setup still remains both sides, with a little bias towards the south. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1240 levels at this time in writing and seems to have found interim support at the fibonacci 0.618 ratio of the rally between 1.1183 and 1.1324 levels earlier, as displayed here. At the same time, please be aware that prices have broken below its counter trend line support and re-entered into the sell zone, giving an edge to the bears. In either case, we can expect a rally at least towards 1.1280/85 levels before deciding a further course of direction. On the flip side, a fibonacci 0.618 bounce could also enable a push higher towards the 1.1340/50 region. As a subset of both scenarios, a rally is the most likely outcome for now, towards at least 1.1280/85 levels, if not higher. Also note that the RSI has already turned higher from 30 levels, which is also supportive to the above conclusion.

Trading plan:

Long again @ 1.1230, stop at 1.1180, target 1.1285 and higher.

Good luck!

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BITCOIN pullback below $5,250 to indicate counter-move? April 19, 2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been consolidating at near $5,250 for a while now. Holding above the dynamic support area of Kumo Cloud along the way indicates further upward pressure that is being formed now.

Bitcoin has been extending a climb without any new lows for the last 123 days that indicates further upward pressure which is sure to attract more bulls along the way. The bullish sentiment is still setting the tone in the market despite the recent volatility at around $5,250. Amid the persistent bullish pressures along the way, the price will keep upward momentum with a target towards $5,500 and later towards $6,000.

The price recently managed to jump above $5,250 with strong bullish momentum but could not sustain it further. So, the price sank below the area with impulsive bearish momentum. The dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line are now holding above the price. These levels are likely to create barriers for the upcoming upward pressure in the coming days. As the price remains above $5,000 with a daily close, the bullish bias is going to push the price higher.

SUPPORT: 4,800-80, 5,000

RESISTANCE: 5,250, 5,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for April 19, 2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

EUR managed to gain momentum over GBP recently after the dominant bearish trend established by GBP. Earlier this week, the pair entered a consolidation phase between the 0.8500-0.8650 area.

The ECB left the key policy rate unchanged at a record low of 0.0% along with the deposit rate. The ECB stated at its last policy meeting that they don't have any plan to increase the policy rate at least until late 2019. The main focus for the ECB would be to ensure the sustained consumer inflation to the levels that are below, but close to 2% over the medium term. Inflation rates are drifting towards the official target level. The euro area's real GDP rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following an increase of 0.1% in Q3.

The manufacturing sector remains feeble due to soft external demand. An annual HICP inflation edged down to 1.4% in March 2019 from 1.5% in February because of a decline in prices of food, services, and non-energy industrial goods. Broad money growth improved by 4.3% in February 2019 from 3.8% in January. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations recovered to 3.7% in February 2019 from 3.4% in January. Overall, the European economy in on a recovery mode. Moreover, Brexit tensions also calmed down for a few months.

On the other hand, the UK is in the grips of political gridlock without prospects of easing. Theresa May's government failed to agree on the Brexit option. The EU leaders granted the UK a 6-month extension until October 31. The UK is looking forward for a new Governor of the Bank of England to succeed Mark Carney who is to leave the office by January 2020. Recently UK Average Earning Index was published unchanged as expected at 3.5%, an Unemployment Rate remained flat at 3.9%, and Claimant Count Change showed a negative result increasing to 28.3k from the previous figure of 26.7k which was expected to decrease to 17.3k. Moreover, UK Retail Sales unexpectedly surged to 1.1% in March from -0.6% in February which was expected to be at 0.2%.

To sum it up, GBP is firmer than EUR amid the ongoing economic backdrop.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading the edge of 0.8650 area with fading bullish momentum which indicates further bearish pressure in the coming days. The price is currently forming Bearish Continuous Divergence which is expected to lead to further downward pressure with a target towards 0.8500 area in the coming days.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/JPY for April 19, 2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

JPY gained impulsive momentum recently against GBP. So, the pair is going to trade with a bearish bias in the coming days.

The UK posted a downbeat CPI report. On the other hand, Average Earning remains steady. Besides, retail sales also surged last month that is a promising sign for the domestic economy. The UK is in the grips of political gridlock without prospects of easing. Theresa May's government failed to agree on the Brexit option. The EU leaders granted the UK a 6-month extension until October 31.

Recently UK Average Earning Index was published unchanged as expected at 3.5%, Unemployment Rate remained flat at 3.9%, and Claimant Count Change showed a negative outcome of an increase to 28.3k from the previous figure of 26.7k which was expected to decrease to 17.3k. Moreover, UK Retail Sales expanded sharply to 1.1% from the previous value of -0.6%, much better than the forecast for a modest gain to 0.2%.

On the JPY side, today National Core CPI report was published with an increase to 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.7% while BOJ is predicting inflation to fall. The Bank of Japan is due to post an inflation outlook next week, so the regulator is assumed to predict that inflation will remain below the 2% target. The central bank is likely to downgrade its growth and price forecast for the fiscal year due to headwinds from a slowdown in the global economci growth. Moreover, Japan's government is considering a sales tax hike in October. This measures could impact the consumer spending and money flow in the economy. A tax hike is sure to influence JPY in the medium term. Next week, the Bank of Japan is holding a policy meeting and a press conference to follow. Besides, traders are anticipating an economic outlook report and a monetary policy statement. Thus, JPY is responsible for higher volatility in the pair next week.

To sum it up, JPY has been propped up by the latest economic reports. GBP has been hurt by a raft of mixed economic data that is bearish for the British currency. Nevertheless, the pressure is expected to be short-lived as GBP has a higher chance to regain momentum as things are unfolding positively for the UK in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price managed to sustain the bearish momentum which is expected to push the price lower towards 144.00 support area in the coming days. The price recently managed to dip below the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close which indicates further bearish pressure. As the price remains below 147.00 area with a daily close, the pair will sustain the bearish pressure in the coming days. A break below 144.00 with a daily close is expected to extend the bearish momentum with a target towards 141.00 area.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for April 19, 2019

Trading 19 avr 2019 Commentaire »

AUD/JPY has been rejected off the 80.50 resistance area with a daily close which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the coming days.

Yesterday Australia released an employment change report which showed an increase to 25.7k jobs in March from the previous figure of 10.7k which was expected to be at 15.2k. On the minus side, an unemployment rate edged up to 5.0% as expected from of 4.9% in the previous month. The global slowdown in the economy is affecting the international trade of Australia. The long-term bond yields have fallen. Besides, the short-term bank funding costs have weakened further. Today due to observance of Good Friday, the economic calendar lacks any data from Australia. However, next week Australian CPI and PPI reports are due which will play a vital role to further AUD gains.

On the JPY side, today National Core CPI report was published with an increase to 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.7% while BOJ is predicting inflation to fall. The Bank of Japan is due to post an inflation outlook next week, so the regulator is assumed to predict that inflation will remain below the 2% target. The central bank is likely to downgrade its growth and price forecast for the fiscal year due to headwinds from a slowdown in the global economic growth. Moreover, Japan's government is considering a sales tax hike in October. This measures could impact the consumer spending and money flow in the economy. A tax hike is sure to influence JPY in the medium term. Next week, the Bank of Japan is holding a policy meeting and a press conference to follow. Besides, traders are anticipating an economic outlook report and a monetary policy statement. Thus, JPY is responsible for higher volatility in the pair next week.

To sum it up, market sentiment on AUD is confused due to the mixed employment data from Australia. On the other hand, JPY is supported by positive economic reports along with the inflation target chase. So, JPY will gain ground versus AUD in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price moved lower from 80.50 area under strong impulsive bearish pressure which engulfed the previous 3 days of bullish indecision daily candles in one go. The price is currently trading above the dynamic level of 20 EMA. However, MACD with a Continuous Bearish Divergence in the making is expected to push the price lower towards 78.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 80.50 area with a daily close, the pair is set to trade with the bearish momentum.

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