*NZ Dollar Advances To 0.6207 Vs U.S. Dollar

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

NZ Dollar Advances To 0.6207 Vs U.S. Dollar


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*NZ Dollar Rise To 1.7769 Against Euro, 66.94 Against Yen

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

NZ Dollar Rise To 1.7769 Against Euro, 66.94 Against Yen


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: Vague doubts torments euro

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

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Last night, the European Commission presented an unprecedented plan to support the economy of the Eurozone, providing for the allocation of € 750 billion in subsidies and loans to EU countries to recover from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Against this background, the EUR / USD pair reached its highest level since early April, rising above 1.1030. However, without the support of US stock indices, the single European currency began to step back.

According to the consensus forecast of experts recently surveyed by Reuters, the S&P 500 index will finish the current year in the region of 2950 points, that is, at levels close to the current. Although most experts believe that due to large-scale incentives, the return of the US stock market to the March bottom is unlikely, as it is not yet clear how things will be after the pandemic. In addition, the risks of escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, as well as the threat of a second wave of coronavirus, and the deterioration of the political landscape in the United States due to the presidential election will put pressure on the S&P 500.

The single European currency has also lost some of its achievements against the US dollar due to doubts that the scheme proposed by the European Commission will eventually be implemented.

"It is probably too early to say that the EUR / USD rally is the beginning of a serious reassessment of European risk. The path to allocating a recovery fund from the EU's long-term budget will be bumpy. Therefore, it is difficult to say that the euro is moving up in a straight line from current levels, "said Chris Turner, strategist at ING.

The growth of the euro is expected to be restrained until the announcement of the ECB's monetary policy decision, which will be adopted next week.

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According to Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, the regulator's previous assessment of the 5% subsidence of Eurozone GDP is likely to be outdated, and the region's economy will shrink by 8%-12% in 2020. Such comments can be regarded as a signal of the expansion of the quantitative easing (QE) program at the June meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB.

Meanwhile, the growing tensions between the United States and China are leveling optimism associated with the gradual opening of national economies amid easing of the restrictive measures introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic. This supports the greenback.

The United States is currently considering a number of options to punish Beijing for tightening control over Hong Kong, including sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions on Chinese companies.

Technically, the EUR / USD pair exceeded the multi-week trading range, which changed its short-term sentiment to bullish. If the pair manages to gain a foothold above the 200-day moving average, which runs around 1.1010–1.1015, this will confirm a bullish break and aim it at the 1.1100 round mark and further to the area of 1.1145–1.1150 ( peak levels at the end of March).

Meanwhile, a EUR / USD pullback below 1.1000 may attract buyers in the 1.0980 area, which will limit the decline in the pair. If this does not happen, then the bears will take a course at 1.0930 and further at 1.0900. A breakdown of these levels will neutralize the bullish mood and aim the pair at 1.0800.

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EUR/USD – take your money!

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

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Good afternoon traders! Congratulations to those who followed our trading idea of opening long positions on May 25 .

The plan was to work out an ABC pattern:

Plan:

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Results:

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The movement was more than 1,400 pips!

The idea was based on the framework of "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. Pompeo’s threats daunted Philip Lowe’s optimism

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

The Australian dollar paired with the American currency expectedly pulled back to the base of the 66th figure during the Asian session on Thursday after the bulls of AUD/USD renewed again almost a three-month price maximum (0.6681) yesterday. Looking ahead, it should be noted that in the medium-term, both long and short positions in the pair look risky, as the Australian dollar continues to fluctuate in the 100-point price range, reacting to an array of conflicting fundamental factors.

Yesterday was very significant in this context: the bulls showed their advantage against the background of a general risk appetite throughout the whole day. But at the close of the American session, the price reversed and collapsed by a hundred points in just a few hours, updating the low of the day 0.6569. Such a sharp change of mood was due to the speech of the head of the US Department of State Mike Pompeo, who talked about the Hong Kong issue again. However, even his messages did not help the bears of AUD/USD - sellers could not change the course on the pair (for this to happen, they needed to lower the price for the Bollinger Bands midline on the daily chart, that is, under the level of 0.6500). Taking advantage of the weakness of the bears, buyers took the lead and returned the pair to the area of the 66th figure. However, the bulls are now showing uncertainty. For example, traders actually ignored today's speech by the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, which was held in a "hawkish" way. Everyone is waiting for the resolution of the main intrigue of the week.

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The state of uncertainty is not unique to the currency market. For example, the Shanghai Composite stock index, during the Asian session on Thursday, also could not determine the vector of its movement, alternating from the negative zone to the positive and vice versa. The risk of introducing additional US sanctions is due to yesterday's statement by Pompeo, which stated that Hong Kong de facto no longer has autonomy from China, which was provided for when the territory was transferred from Great Britain to the Chinese authorities in 1997.

This statement is not just a comment by a senior US official. Let me remind you that the United States passed the Law on the Defense of Democracy in Hong Kong last fall. This document requires an annual review of the favorable trade status granted by the US to Hong Kong due to the fact that this city is one of the world financial centers. In addition, the bill also allows for the imposition of sanctions against representatives of the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, which (according to Washington) are responsible for violating human rights. In other words, the US State Department must at least confirm once a year to Congress that Hong Kong maintains sufficient autonomy to maintain favorable conditions for trade with the United States.

In the light of the above remarks, Pompeo's statement yesterday can be interpreted as announcing the imposition of additional sanctions against China and the Hong Kong administration. The head of the State Department hinted at a forthcoming response, but did not specify what exactly Washington was going to do. Trump also kept the intrigue, saying that he would announce in a few days the measures that the United States plans to take to the PRC. At the same time, he hinted that we are not talking about sanctions - Washington is preparing "something powerful," which the public will know before the end of the week.

China reacted to the threats dryly: Beijing reiterated that the relationship between the central government and the autonomous region of Hong Kong is related to the country's domestic policy, which no state in the world has the right to intervene.

Amid such political battles, today's speech by the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, went almost unnoticed. Although he voiced quite optimistic rhetoric. In particular, he said that the "coronavirus strike" on the economy was not as strong as the Central Bank had expected. For example, unemployment rates were not so bad relative to the regulator's earlier forecasts, while recovery processes have already begun. Such rhetoric suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain a wait-and-see position in the coming months and will not consider options for further easing monetary policy parameters. And at the end of this year (or at the beginning of next), it may even return to the issue of raising the rate, unless the world is trapped in the second wave of the pandemic.

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Thus, the AUD/USD pair still retains the potential for its further growth - the latest Australian macroeconomic reports and the position of the head of the RBA speak in favor of this scenario. But, unfortunately, there is one "but". The US-China political conflict can put strong pressure on the pair, especially if it moves to the economic plane (for example, if the parties voice plans to revise the agreements reached). As a result, it is advisable to make trading decisions for the pair after the Hong Kong issue is resolved - at least in the context of the US response (and the possible reaction of the PRC).

From a technical point of view, the buyers of the AUD/USD pair still need to break through the resistance level of 0.6650 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). While consolidating above this target, the bulls will be able to move to the 67th figure. Otherwise, the pair will demonstrate a downward pullback again to the base of the 66th price level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 28, 2020:

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Crypto Industry News:

The message signed by 145 wallets containing Bitcoins extracted in the first years calls Craig Wright a "liar and cheater."

The message was published on May 25 with a list of 145 addresses and their corresponding signatures. This apparently proves that these addresses actually belong to the person sending the message. The message itself is:

"Craig Steven Wright is a liar and cheater. He doesn't have the keys used to sign this message. Lightning Network is a significant achievement. However, we need to continue working on improving chain performance. Unfortunately, the solution is not simply to change the code constant or allow powerful participants to deny others." - we read.

Financial media were able to verify that all addresses could be found on the list of thousands reported by Craig Wright in the case against Ira Kleiman.

Wright has repeatedly been unable to provide proof of ownership of Satoshi Nakamoto's alleged fortune, which is believed to have extracted over a million Bitcoins. A simple way to do this is to sign the message using the cryptographic private key of the wallet, which you can check with the public key.

Given that Wright tried to avoid every opportunity in which he would be forced to finally prove ownership, many in the community doubt that he owns these Bitcoins - and therefore that he is Satoshi Nakamoto.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken through the blue trend line resistance and is currently hovering just below the key short-term technical resistance located at the level of $9,249. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,013 and $8,819. The momentum is now slightly positive, but not too strong yet. If the level of $9,249 is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,381. The larger time frame trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,568

WR2 - $10,245

WR1 - $9,478

Weekly Pivot - $9,098

WS1 - $8,333

WS2 - $7,968

WS3 - 7,231

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 28, 2020:

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Crypto Industry News:

Goldman Sachs will host a teleconference entitled "US Economic Prospects and the Implications of Current Inflation, Gold and Bitcoin Policies".

Mike Dundas, founder of The Block, published a screenshot of the invitation, showing that the event will be hosted by Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, CIO Goldman's Investment Strategy Group, along with economics professor Harvard Jason Furman and chief economist Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius.

The news was announced as a milestone in the institutional acceptance of cryptographic assets, which seems to imply a complete change in Mossovar-Rhami - who said cryptocurrencies fail as a means of exchange, thesaurization and units of measurement, in August 2018.

For many years, the cryptographic community seemed to be awaiting involvement in Goldman Sachs' cryptocurrencies. There were false rumors that the financial giant was planning to open a BTC sales office.

The Goldman Sachs conference call appears among other signals indicating that many of the leading financial institutions may be preparing for cryptocurrencies, as JPMorgan has begun providing banking services for the US Coinbase and Gemini exchanges.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the successful defense of the blue trend line, the ETH/USD bulls had set the target for at the level of $205.05 (already hit) or even higher at the level of $209.89. However the bears have managed to make a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern after the level of $205.05 was violated, so the odds for another wave up are now lower. Any violation of the blue trend line will likely result in another wave down towards the levels of $193.78 and $188.86, so please keep an eye on current price developments around this levels .

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $234.40

WR2 - $228.76

WR1 - $216.85

Weekly Pivot - $204.00

WS1 - $192.21

WS2 - $178.64

WS3 - $166.85

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for May 28, 2020:

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the level of 1.1017, which is the upper supply zone boundary and made a new swing high at the level of 1.1035 (at the time of writing the article). The bulls are then pushing through and the market conditions are still in their favor, so does the increasing momentum. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1050 and 1.1.074. On the other hand, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0858, which is 61% of the Fibonacci retracement or at the next technical support at 1.0850.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1206

WR2 - 1.1107

WR1 - 1.0997

Weekly Pivot - 1.0901

WS1 - 1.0789

WS2 - 1.0688

WS3 - 1.0567

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil quotes to fall

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

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Two weeks before the OPEC + meeting in June, Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to closely coordinate actions to reduce oil production.

Negotiations began between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after Russia announced its plans to begin easing production cuts in July,

The talks halted US oil in the range $ 30-35.

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Online meetings of OPEC + members are scheduled on June 9-10, to discuss whether they should increase their record cuts in oil production or, conversely, begin to reduce the cuts.

"This is certainly a positive development," said Mohammad Darwazah, an analyst at Medley Global Advisors. "It portends good prospects for the next OPEC + meeting, in which Saudi Arabia and Russia will be on the same side," he added.

Russia and Saudi Arabia carried the largest share of production cuts in the OPEC + agreement, committing to reduce production by more than what was required. Saudi Arabia's actions were then followed by other OPEC members, such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Russia, before doing the same thing on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the country will first analyze the world oil market before deciding on possible changes to the OPEC + agreement.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin said that Putin and Bin Salman exchanged views on the global energy market, prioritizing the importance of "joint efforts" and agreed that both country's energy ministries would closely coordinate their actions.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for May 28, 2020:

Trading 28 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has reversed the direction from up to down after the local high was made at the level of 1.2361. The market has made the Pin Bar candlestick that retraced the up trend almost in 100%. The bulls are pushing the prices and targeting the next level seen at 1.2381, but the market conditions are overbought, so the odds for a bounce extension are low. The last swing low and technical support is seen at the level of 1.2072. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2246.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2499

WR2 - 1.2389

WR1 - 1.2274

Weekly Pivot - 1.2176

WS1 - 1.2057

WS2 - 1.1949

WS3 - 1.1823

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal will be possible when the coronavirus pandemic is tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com