Poland Jobless Rate Steady In September

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Poland's jobless rate remained stable in September, data from Statistics Poland showed on Friday.

The registered jobless rate was 6.1 percent in September, same as seen in August. This was in line with economists' expectation.

In the same month last year, the unemployment rate was 5.1 percent.

The newly registered unemployed persons decreased to 131,400 in September from 137,500 in the same month last year. In August, the number of unemployed persons was 99,200.

The number of youth unemployed persons, which is applied to below 25 age group, fell to 124,900 in September from 134,900 in the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the registered unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3 percent in September.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Sweden Producer Prices Decline Slows In September

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Sweden's producer prices continued to decline in September, albeit at a softer pace, figures from Statistics Sweden showed on Friday.

The producer price index declined 4.2 percent year-on-year in September, following a 4.6 percent fall in August. This was the ninth consecutive fall in prices.

Import prices decreased 8.7 percent yearly in September and fell 1.1 percent from a month ago.

Export prices declined 6.6 percent annually in September and rose 0.5 percent from the previous month.

On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.4 percent in September.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Prices Edge Higher On Strong Factory Data

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Oil prices edged higher on Friday after European factory figures beat expectations, helping offset lingering demand concerns amid a continuous surge in Covid-19 cases.

Benchmark Brent crude rose 28 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $42.74 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures were up 22 cents, or half a percent, at $40.84.

While the euro area private sector returned to negative territory for the first time since June, manufacturing output growth accelerated to the fastest since February 2018 in October, flash survey data from IHS Markit showed today.

Oil's upside remain capped by worries about the outlook for fuel demand amid increasing evidence that the coronavirus pandemic is worsening in Europe.

According to a Reuters tally, the coronavirus cases reported in Europe more than doubled within 10 days and exceeded 200,000 daily infections for the first time on Thursday.

Both Germany and France saw their daily Covid-19 infections hit new highs on Thursday. A curfew has been imposed from 12:30 a.m. until 5:00 a.m. in Greece.

The U.K., Ireland and other nations have extended their restrictions in a bid to contain the spread of the pandemic.

Spain's Health Minister Salvador Illa said the spread of coronavirus is out of control in certain parts of the country. Elsewhere, U.S. hospitalizations for Covid-19 have reached a two-month high.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: greenback keeps the intrigue alive

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

analytics5f92fe8e0aac8.jpg

On Friday, the greenback slightly strengthened after the final election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but then came under pressure across almost the entire spectrum of the market after the release of statistical data on Germany.

During the final televised debate, the current US President and the democratic candidate once again emphasized the difference in their approaches to solving the issues under discussion, seeking to enlist the support of still undecided voters.

"The market reaction was quite passive but slightly shifted towards a more conservative mood," Natixis experts said.

Against this background, the US Dollar rose by 0.12% but failed to develop a bullish momentum and faced strong resistance near 93.1 points.

According to data released today, the PMI in the German manufacturing sector rose to 58 points against the forecast of 55 points and compared with 56.4 points recorded in September.

"I am glad that the German economy shows a certain resilience. Despite the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the decline in the country's services sector is still limited, " said Phil Smith, a spokesman for IHS Markit.

Positive news from Germany put pressure on the greenback and helped the Euro recover after it fell 0.17% to $1.1796.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair declined, as hopes for the early adoption of the next stimulus package in the United States somewhat weakened.

Market participants are still betting on a confident victory for the Democrats in the upcoming elections and, accordingly, on a generous package of incentives. If Republicans hold the Senate, the amount of incentives will be less. The size of the stimulus may be an average value between the positions of Democrats and Republicans in the case that Trump will be re-elected and convince party members to accept additional incentives.

The intrigue surrounding the potential winner of the US Presidency may continue until the very last moment and even longer, given the fact that the election results may be disputed, and the mail vote will not reveal a clear winner in key states. The electoral college will meet on December 14.

While it is only a matter of time before a new US aid package is agreed on, the uncertainty surrounding the November 3 US election may force investors to withdraw some capital from the stock market. Against the background of profit-taking on shares, the EUR/USD pair will quickly fall to 1.1700.

The ECB will hold its next monetary policy meeting next week. Most likely, the regulator will not lower interest rates, but may hint at the prospects for such a step in the future. The fact that the ECB may resort to aggressive measures within the next two months, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's unwillingness to adjust monetary policy, will be the basis for selling the Euro.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the GBP/USD currency pair on October 23? Analysis of Friday’s deals.

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

The hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.

analytics5f92ee1e8dc85.jpg

For the GBP/USD currency pair, trading during the day ending at this time was quite difficult. If the euro currency has clearly been corrected within the new downward trend and is also clearly trying to resume its downward movement, the pound sterling was trading in different directions during the day. Moreover, there is no clear trend for the pound/dollar pair at this time. The upward trend line is quite formal, as the price has moved very far away from it. Now, correcting for the third day in a row, it has not yet been able to reach it. Thus, formally, novice traders can expect a price rebound from this line, however, we would recommend counting on a breakout. If a rebound is made, long positions can still be considered. Also today, novice traders could open longs on a signal from the MACD, however, this had to be done in small lots, since the upward trend is ambiguous now.

The fundamental background for the British currency remains an extremely important factor, although it does not always have any impact on trading. The topic of Brexit is inexhaustible and does not want to end. However, there hasn't been much news on this topic recently. For the most part, they concerned mutual accusations from London and Brussels about their unwillingness to concede in negotiations on a trade agreement. Such stubbornness on both sides leads to a drop in the chances of reaching an agreement to almost zero, which is primarily not beneficial for Britain and its pound. However, it is the pound that has become more expensive in recent days and even weeks. We believe that this is an illogical behavior of traders and the pound will resume its downward trend in the near future. As for today's macroeconomic reports, the statistics from the UK turned out to be quite strong and interesting. For example, retail sales for September exceeded forecasts and amounted to +4.7% in annual terms. The index of business activity in the service sector fell quite seriously, however, it still amounted to 52.3 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector also declined, however, it exceeded forecasts and amounted to 53.3 points. Thus, in general, you can even call this statistics package quite good. However, the pound tried several times to start a new round of upward movement, however, it still fell most of the day. We believe that the fall in the pound is now justified by the fundamental background.

As of October 23, the following scenarios are possible:

1) We still recommend buying the pound/dollar pair, as the upward trend is still maintained. However, we do not recommend that novice traders do this with large lots since from our point of view, the upward trend will be canceled in the near future. However, an eloquent rebound from the trend line will allow you to open long positions with targets of 1.3100 and 1.3129.

2) Sales, from our point of view, are now much more appropriate, however, you should not rush to open them until the price is fixed below the ascending trend line. In this case, the targets will be the support level of 1.2969 and 1.2860. At the same time, for the pound, it may be better to wait until Monday to assess the situation in a new way, since today's trading was extremely difficult and ambiguous.

What's on the chart:

Price support and resistance levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines(channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on October 23? Analysis of Friday’s deals.

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

The hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

analytics5f92eded52e3a.jpg

The EUR/USD currency pair was trading higher for most of the day on Friday, October 23. This is exactly what we talked about this morning. The pair needed to adjust to resume the downward movement later. Likely, a downward trend has also formed now, as the quotes once again failed to overcome the level of 1.1900 over the past three months, which is still the upper limit of the side channel. An eloquent downward turn was made on the way to this level. Thus, the trend is now characterized by a downward trend. Therefore, a new reversal of the MACD indicator down, which may happen in the next few hours, can be regarded as a signal for sales. In general, we have repeatedly drawn the attention of novice traders to the fact that the euro/dollar pair continues to trade mainly inside the side channel. Thus, if the upper line could not be overcome, respectively, there is a high probability of going down to the lower border of this channel. Therefore, we expect a drop to the level of 1.1696.

On Friday, there was once again very little important news in the European Union and America. Last night, the final round of debates between President Donald Trump and presidential candidate Joe Biden took place in the United States. That night, the US dollar rose by about 30 points, however, it began to fall sharply against the euro in the morning. We can only highlight the indices of business activity in the service sectors of the European Union and some of its countries. For example, in Germany, business activity in the service sector declined further to 48.9 points. Recall that any value below 50.0 is considered negative and means a decline in the sector. In the European Union as a whole, the indicator of business activity in the service sector and the composite index went below the 50-point mark. Thus, the European indicator of business activity is declining faster than the German and only the service sector is declining. This is not surprising. It is the service sector that is suffering the most from the pandemic and the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the spread of the virus. What is remarkable here is the fact that business activity is falling, which means that the EU economy itself should be expected to shrink or slow down. But in the United States, all three business activity indices remain above the mark of 50.0, so the American economy has nothing to worry about yet if only these indicators are taken into account. Unemployment is falling. Thus, although the virus continues to spread in America, business activity overseas is still in order. Accordingly, the strengthening of the US currency to 1.1700 becomes even more likely.

On October 23, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Purchases of the EUR/USD pair have ceased to be relevant at the moment since the price is fixed below the ascending trend line. The previous local maximum (1.1867) price also failed to breakthrough today. Thus, it is recommended for novice traders to resume trading for an increase after the formation of a new upward trend or the refraction of a downward one, which is still not expected during the current day.

2) Novice traders are recommended to trade on the downside. The pair corrected during the day, and the MACD indicator was discharged, so you can expect a sell signal from the MACD today. In this case, we recommend opening new short positions with targets of 1.1796 and 1.1776.

What is on the chart:

Price support and resistance levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator(14,22,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Today we use the Ichimoku cloud indicator in order to identify key short-term support and resistance levels. What will be the target if price breaks any key short-term support level? EURUSD price is currently in a bullish trend as the Ichimoku cloud indicator indicates in the 4 hour chart.

analytics5f92e368861d4.jpg

First important support level is shown by the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This support is found at 1.1827. Next support level is at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at 1.1808. As we have explained in previous posts, previous resistance is now support. So bulls need to stay above both the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen indicators. Breaking below these two indicators will open the way for a move towards the Kumo (cloud) at 1.1760. A break below 1.1760 will turn short-term trend to bearish again. The best level to buy again if you are a bull is once price bounces off the re-test of the Kumo. So if price pulls back all the way to 1.1760 and bounces, then this would be a bullish sign. If you lean more on the bearish scenario as the most probable one, then traders should look to open short position in stages, as price breaks each support level, adding to their position and not exposing themselves in a short position from the beginning.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly Ichimoku cloud analysis for Gold

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Gold price is trapped between the kijun-sen and the tenkan-sen indicators. Although longer-term trend in Ichimoku cloud terms remains bullish, there are some worrying signs that a bigger pull back could unfold until the end of the year.

analytics5f92e21cd1bca.jpg

Gold price is well above the Kumo (cloud). Price is getting rejected the last two weeks at the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This is a sign of weakness. The tenkan-sen resistance is now at $1,920. Bulls need a weekly close above $1,920. On the other hand bears are not that strong either as price has tested the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and have not managed to break below it yet. Support by the kijun-sen is at $1,872. A weekly close below $1,872 is what bears look for. This will imply that a move towards the cloud at $1,650-$1,700 would be likely. The Chikou span (black line indicator) is above the candlestick pattern. Support according to the Chikou span on a weekly basis is at $1,730-$1,760.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF at major support

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

USDCHF is trading at 0.9050 for the third time the last three months. Last time USDCHF was at current levels, price reversed trend and made a bounce all the way to 0.93. Longer-term trend remains bearish as price continues to make lower lows and lower highs since April of 2019.

analytics5f92e0e01f356.jpg

Green rectangle - major support

Blue line - resistance trend line

USDCHF remains in a bearish trend as long as price is below the blue trend line resistance. If the green support area fails to hold then we should expect USDCHF to remain under pressure and make a move towards 0.89 at least. If price manages and breaks above the blue trend line then we should expect the September high at 0.93 to be broken. Any bounce towards the blue trend line resistance is seen as a chance to sell again, specially if price breaks the green support area.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound Little Changed After U.K. PMI Data

Trading 23 oct 2020 Commentaire »

At 4.30 am ET Friday, UK composite PMI data has been published. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3094 against the greenback, 136.99 against the yen, 1.1853 against the franc and 0.9041 against the euro around 4:33 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com