BITCOIN analysis of August 21, 2018

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin is still quite indecisive below $6,500 area which is going nowhere as of the current market structure. The price has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains yesterday which lead the price towards the Tenkan line dynamic support level and today an impulsive bullish counter was again observed which put the bulls at the front seat again. Though the price has been indecisive but having dynamic support respected well in the process is expected to inject further bullish momentum in coming days. As of the current scenario, a daily close above $6,500 is still expected for the price to push higher impulsively with target towards $8,000 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 6,000, 5,500

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Global macro overview for 21/08/2018

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

The macroeconomic data publications at the beginning of the week are light, but one of the most important information recently is the statement of Donald Trump being part of the interview given to the Reuters news agency. In an interview with Reuters journalists, the President of the United States openly criticized the Federal Reserve for the current tightening of monetary policy and interest rate increases.

According to Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve should support the actions taken by him and decisions aimed at improving the state of the American economy. Gradually raising interest rates in the current business cycle is inappropriate, in his opinion, and he intends to criticize the Fed until such a failure to stop the process of tightening its monetary policy.

This is not the first time that the American president negatively refers to the activities of the central bank, which in its assumptions should be independent of political pressure. Trump then stated that he was not "satisfied with rate hikes" referring to the first months of the term of office of Jerome Powell, whom he nominated himself to take over Janet Yellen's chair.

"We are conducting very strong and fruitful negotiations with other countries and we are going to win. During this period, however, we need a little support from the FED. Other countries have an adjustment policy, " said Trump in an interview with Reuters.

In response to the words of the American president, the local stock market was red before closing Monday's session. The US dollar followed in its footsteps, so let's take a look at the DXY technical picture at the H4 time frame.The market has drop towards the technical support at the level of 95.44 and now this level is being tested. In a case of a further sell-off, the next technical support is seen at the level of 95.15.

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Global macro overview for 21/08/2018

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

On Monday, the 13th of August, Turks woke up with a course of lira at the level of 7 per dollar, it became clear that the current policy in combating the crisis did not pass the exam. The joint actions undertaken by the government and the Turkish central bank at that time allowed the campaign to stop the downward spiral and the relative stabilization of the lira exchange rate at slightly below 6 per dollar. Lira is still losing about 38% values from the beginning of the year, but it seems that you have mastered the panic, well, at least for now.

Already a week ago, the support of the sinking lira came from the Turkish central bank. A statement appeared on his website that if necessary, the banking system would be helped by any liquidity. In addition, it enabled banks to take monthly currency loans, and not only weekly loans, as before. They also increased their foreign currency lending limits and relaxed the hedging and reserve policy in foreign exchange transactions, thus freeing about $ 6 billion in additional liquidity in banks.

In conclusion, markets participants that were afraid whether Turkish financial institutions will be able to continue servicing their dollar liabilities have been somewhat calmed down. "A bit" because analysts agree that what Turkey really needs today is a significant interest rate increase. This, however, can not count on two reasons. First of all, the next meeting of the Turkish central bank in this matter will take place on September 13. Secondly, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan strongly opposes any increases, which in a way binds the hands of the central bank increasingly dependent on the head of state. However, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is not completely defenseless in this situation and appealed to the tried and tested methods, ie raising interest rates through the back door. After the May increase in the cost of money in Turkey, the monetary policy would normalize. The basic interest rate was a weekly repo loan rate set at 17.75%. It was supplemented by an overnight lending rate of 19.25%. Thanks to this, if necessary, the central bank could manipulate the average weighted cost of financing banks by choosing the right proportions for loans - the more overnight loans, the higher the cost of money for banks.

Meanwhile, at the end of last week, the central bank completely closed the cock with weekly repo loans, forcing banks to borrow at an overnight rate. Thus, the effective cost of money for banks increased by 1.5 points percent. Officially, monetary policy has not changed, but in fact, rates have increased. And the markets are happy, and the president is not angry.

Although the past week brought relative stabilization of the lira exchange rate and temporarily restrained the wave of falling currency values, it ended with an unpleasant event for Turkey, namely a downgrade by S&P rating agencies to the level of B + and Moody's rating agency to Ba3. This means that, according to the agency, Turkey is currently able to settle its obligations, but is experiencing problems that put into question its ability and willingness to service debts in the future. The probability of bankruptcy with such an assessment is estimated at about 2.0% during the year and 12.0% within 5 years.

Although credit rating reduction was expected and already included in the lira course, it is also an important warning signal. None of the measures taken by the Turkish government and the central bank last week solves the fundamental problems of the Turkish economy, i.e. excessive foreign debt, the largest current account deficit among OECD countries and the instability of the banking system caused by excessive credit expansion. A certain change in this respect may result in the disclosure of more details of the economic program announced by Minister Albayrak, but it does not have to.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame chart. The market is now trying to break out above the trend line resistance around the level of 6.04. The nearest resistnace is seen at the level of 6.41 and the nearest support is seen at the level of 5.68.

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Global macro overview for 21/08/2018

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

The dollar has accepted the punch from Trump and the corrective developments dictate the conditions on the main currency pairs. The Asian stock market is "enjoying" the disruption of USD domination; similarly, in the commodity market, the valuation in the American currency is adjusted.

The American president accused China and the European Union of manipulating exchange rates. He again expressed his dissatisfaction with the interest rate increases made by the Fed.

Not everywhere, however, the dollar is decreasing, because the developments of the emerging market were mixed. ZAR grew strong, but TRY remained weak after Trump's comments that relations with Turkey are not improving. USD/TRY does not move away to 6.10.

Minutes from the RBA meeting went unnoticed - the bank repeated that there are currently no reasons to change attitude. AUD ignored the publication, just as it was insensitive to political reports - Australian Prime Minister Turnbull survived the motion for a vote of confidence, which distanced the specter of the accelerated election.

On the stock market, traders can feel the positive impact of USD weakness, as well as sustained hopes for easing the US-China trade dispute. Shanghai Composite grew 1.2% today, but Japanese Nikkei is gaining only 0.3%, which is partially inhibited by USD / JPY decreases.

Let's now take a look at the S&P500 technical picture at the H4 time frame chart. The market is trading at the new all-time highs at the time of writing this article, so this would be the level of 286.80. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 286.77 and 286.12. The target for bulls is currently unknowm but it is worth to notice, that the market conditions are now overbought and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator.

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Bitcoin analysis for 21/08/2018

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

On Friday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced a new unified exchange rate for Bolivar, which is linked to the virtual Petro currency. According to the new guidelines, one Petro would have the equivalent of $ 60, which means that the country's currency is substantially devalued by 96%.

In the face of enormous political and economic turmoil in the South American country, Maduro has recently announced various economic changes during broadcasting on public television. The socialist leader said he would raise the minimum wage by more than 3,000%, increase the corporate tax rate and raise gas prices in the next few weeks.

Maduro also provided another news related to Petro's national virtual currency. He said that one Petro would be worth $ 60 and would correspond to 360 million Venezuelan bolivars. The new rate means that one dollar will amount to 6 million bolivars, which is a rate close to what can be seen on the black market. However, at the time the decree was in force, the domestic exchange rate of the Central Bank was 248,832 dollars per dollar, which means that the new figure is roughly 96% devaluation.

While Maduro said that the new economic initiatives are part of his "formula" to help "recover the country," many economists believe that the plans will lead to a greater disaster for the country's population. Experts say that these initiatives will only reduce the already small salaries that many citizens have and indicate that tax increases and minimum wages will make many companies and businesses have to fight even more.

Increasing inflation rates have been seen in the country for some time, but in recent days they have become more and more severe. The International Monetary Fund now believes that inflation in Venezuela will reach one million percent in 2018.

Increasing economic conditions have prompted many citizens to emigrate to other nations in South America, which has caused one of the worst migration crises in recent years. After the statement by Maduro, opposition leader Henrique Capriles wrote on Twitter: "No Venezuelan deserves this tragedy or that those incapacitated people will destroy our nation".

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains inside of the horizontal consolidation between the levels of $5,846 - $6,597. Currently, the price is just above the weekly pivot at the level of $6,359 and just above the internal trend line support marked in blue. The key level to the upside is seen at $6,597 and in a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at $6,752. On the other hand, the intraday supports are seen at the levels of $6,179, $6,134, $6,083 and $6,034.

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Belgium Consumer Confidence Deteriorates In August

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

Belgium's consumer confidence deteriorated in August, extending the weakness witnessed over the past three months, survey data from the National Bank of Belgium showed Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index dropped to -3 from 0. In June, the reading was -3.

The decline in confidence is largely attributable to less optimistic expectations about trends in the economic situation and unemployment, the bank said.


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*Belgium Aug Consumer Confidence -3 Vs. 0 In July

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

Belgium Aug Consumer Confidence -3 Vs. 0 In July


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*Euro Weakens To 1.7254 Vs NZ Dollar

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

Euro Weakens To 1.7254 Vs NZ Dollar


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*Euro Edges Down To 0.8962 Against Pound

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

Euro Edges Down To 0.8962 Against Pound


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*Euro Drops To 1.1359 Against Franc

Trading 21 août 2018 Commentaire »

Euro Drops To 1.1359 Against Franc


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