Experts predicted the reaction of the euro to the results of the next meeting of the ECB

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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The last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) this year promises to be fun. Tomorrow, the regulator will open the curtain of his plans for the future. The signals that the financial institution will send to the markets can determine the further dynamics of the single European currency.

"If the Central Bank signals that it 's true to its plans, it will be a good sign for the euro," said currency strategists at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

"The sharp increase in the yield of German bonds due to short coverage can push the EUR / USD pair to a new , higher trading range until the end of the year," they added.

"We expect the regulator to adhere to its plans and leave its forecasts as a whole unchanged, given that it has achieved the goal of mitigating policy. This will help EUR / USD recover, "Credit Agricole experts said.

"Strong 3-quarter wage data should strengthen the ECB 's confidence that inflationary pressure is increasing. This will allow the financial institution to normalize policies gradually. If the attitude of the Central Bank at the end of the next meeting turns out to be less pigeon than expected, then this can open the way for the euro to rise to $ 1.15, " Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group believe.

"We believe the ECB will adhere to cautious-toned tone in its comments. The "dovish"rhetoric of the regulator has already been laid in the euro course, " said Barclays representatives.

Thus, the euro can strengthen, if the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi even hints at a tightening of monetary policy in 2019: the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) next year is now being questioned.

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / USD for the week of December 12

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Since April of this year, the main trend of the British pound is directed to the "south" of the price chart. The last TF waveform H4 has formed a flat correction (B) in the structure.

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Medium scale graphics:

The decline that began on November 7 has a high potential and will eventually move to a higher wave level. Considering that in the wave of the daily trend, this section gave rise to the final part (C), the movement has a pronounced impulsive character.

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Small scale graphics:

From the middle of November, a bullish wave of the wrong kind is forming within the framework of the main time wave. The structure lacks a final lift (C). The price is within the strong support of a large TF.

Forecast and recommendations:

The decline that has begun coincides with the direction of the main trend, so it's more reasonable to ignore all movements towards it. In the area of the calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the sales signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2680 / 1.2730

Support areas:

- 1.2500 / 1.2450

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C) . For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention:

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Breaking forecast 12/12/2018

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Breaking forecast 12.12.2018

EURUSD: There is a signal downwards.

On Tuesday, the euro pierced down the daily level of about 1.1309, but so far the low is shown only at 1.1305 - there is no real breakdown

The market is waiting for the EU summit, an extraordinary meeting in agreement with Britain on Thursday - and the ECB's decision on Thursday, 13th of December.

If our sales go down by 1.1354 - a new entry down from 1.1300.

Alternative: Buy from 1.1445.

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Trading Plan 12/12/2018

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Trading plan 12.12.2018

Overall picture: The dollar is trying to start increasing

The dollar rose against the euro and the pound on the political crisis in Britain around an agreement with the EU.

On Thursday, the EU summit is scheduled - on relations with Britain in case of failure in the British Parliament agreement with the EU (which is considered quite possible). Probably, British Prime Minister Theresa May will come to the summit to get new concessions from the EU. However, the EU leadership is skeptical and does not seem ready to concede.

In addition, on Thursday the ECB's decision on monetary policy.

Pound: we keep sales from 1.2650.

Alternative: Buy from 1.2820.

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*Romania Oct Industrial New Orders Up 21.9% On Year

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Romania Oct Industrial New Orders Up 21.9% On Year


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*Romania Oct Industrial New Orders Up 20.3% On Month

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Romania Oct Industrial New Orders Up 20.3% On Month


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*Romania Oct Industrial Production Up 3.5% On Year

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Romania Oct Industrial Production Up 3.5% On Year


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*Romania Oct Industrial Production Up 7.8% On Month

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Romania Oct Industrial Production Up 7.8% On Month


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Control zones USDJPY 12.12.18

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

The previous day's growth led to a breakdown and consolidation above the NKZ 1/2 113.23-113.14. This indicates an upward priority and the need to search for favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument.

The growth of the last two days is impulsive. The upward model has a weekly target KZ 114.25-114.07. Work in the upward direction has a higher potential and allows you to count on a profit in 70% of cases. It is important to understand that more favorable prices are required for purchases. The nearest support is NKZ 1/4 113.02-112.98. Placing a limit order within this zone can provide an excellent entry point. The growth potential from this zone will be 100 points, so the stop should not exceed 30 points.

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The most favorable purchase prices are located within the NKZ 1/2 112.56-112.47. The probability of today's test of this zone is low, so this plan has medium-term prospects. It should be remembered that the update of the weekly low will require the transfer of the NKZ 1/2 after the weakening of the Japanese yen.

Growth from current levels is highly likely, but buying at the high of the week does not look profitable, since the stop will be required below yesterday's low. This does not allow you to get a favorable ratio of risk to profit. It is not necessary to consider the reversal model, since the violation of the upward momentum requires the absorption of the growth of the last two days. The probability of this event is 30%.

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Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on 12 December. Breakthrough of important support levels

Trading 12 déc 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro buyers are in a very difficult situation. To maintain any hope for an upward movement, it is necessary to stay above the support level of 1.1320-1.1310 and form a false breakout there, which will lead to an increase in the area of intermediate resistance of 1.1341, where the upward potential will be limited. Only a consolidation above 1.1341 will lead to the formation of a larger upward wave in the euro with an update of the high of 1.1370, where I recommend taking profits. If the data on the volume of industrial production in the euro area will come out bad, it is best to count on new purchases of the EUR/USD after updating the low of 1.1293 or a rebound from 1.1268.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears need to break below the support of 1.1310, which has repeatedly saved buyers from a major sale. Another test can lead to a breakdown and the formation of a new downward movement in the area of lows 1.1293 and 1.1268, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In the event of a good fundamental statistics in the first half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.1341 will be a signal to the sell the euro. In another scenario, you can open short positions on the rebound from the high of 1.1370.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the downward trend. 30-day average acts as a resistance, where you can watch short positions on the euro.

Bollinger Bands

The upward correction in the pair will be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1378, the test of which will be a signal to sell. In case the euro declines, long positions can be seen at a rebound from the lower border, which is located in the area 1.1290.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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