Oil Settles Lower As Concerns Over Energy Demand Outlook Weigh

Trading 19 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday as disappointing GDP data from China added to concerns about outlook for energy demand.

Although OPEC and allies are set to extend output cuts into 2020, rising crude inventories in the U.S. continue to weigh on crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for November ended down $0.15, or about 0.3%, at $53.78 a barrel.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures for November ended up $0.57, or about 1.1%, at $53.93 a barrel, after gaining about 1% a session earlier.

Oil futures shed 1.7% in the week.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday showed crude stockpiles in the U.S. jumped 9.3 million barrels last week, more than three times the expected increase.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.56 million barrels last week, more than twice the expected decline, while distillate inventories were down 3.8 million barrels, again substantially more than what was forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute's weekly report showed late Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories soared by 10.5 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11.

According to Baker Hughes, oil rigs count in the U.S. increased for a second successive week, with oil companies adding a rig in the week to October 18. With this, the total count now has risen to 713.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC lowered its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 0.98 million barrels per day.. It has retained its 2020 demand growth estimate unchanged at 1.08 million barrels per day.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed China's economy grew at the slowest rate in nearly three decades in the third quarter, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out more measures.

China's GDP grew 6% year-on-year in the third quarter after rising 6.2% in the second quarter, the data showed. Growth was forecast to slow marginally to 6.1%.

Recent U.S. data showing a drop in industrial production, housing starts and Philadelphia area manufacturing activity have also contributed to rising concerns about global growth and outlook for the energy demand.


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Treasuries Pull Back Off Best Levels But Close Slightly Higher

Trading 19 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries moved modestly higher over the course of morning trading on Friday but gave back some ground in the afternoon.

Bond prices pulled back off their best levels of the day but managed to close slightly higher. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by 1 basis point to 1.747 percent after hitting a low of 1.729 percent.

Treasuries benefited from their appeal as a safe haven aid concerns about the global economic outlook following disappointing Chinese data.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed China's economy grew at the slowest rate in nearly three decades in the third quarter, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus.

China's GDP grew 6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter after rising 6.2 percent in the second quarter. This was the slowest growth since the early 1990s. Growth was forecast to slow marginally to 6.1 percent.

In U.S. economic news, the Conference Board released a report showing an unexpected drop by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of September.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in September after dipping by a revised 0.2 percent in August.

Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said the drop by the index reflected weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread, which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index.

"The LEI reflects uncertainty in the outlook and falling business expectations, brought on by the downturn in the industrial sector and trade disputes," said Ozyildirim.

He added, "Looking ahead, the LEI is consistent with an economy that is still growing, albeit more slowly, through the end of the year and into 2020."

However, traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves amid lingering uncertainty about a possible U.S.-China trade deal and questions about the Brexit deal getting through parliament.

Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, although traders are likely to keep an eye on report on new and existing home sales and durable goods orders.

Bond trading could also be impacted by reaction to the results of the Treasury Department's auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.


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Gold Futures Settle Modestly Lower

Trading 19 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Despite disappointing GDP data from China, trade issues and doubts about the Brexit deal getting the U.K. lawmakers' nod, gold prices edged lower on Friday.

The dollar was weak too, as rising possibility of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continued to weigh on the currency.

The dollar index kept edging lower and lower after opening flat at 97.61. The index was last seen at 97.31, down 0.3% from Thursday's close.

Gold futures for December ended down $4.20, or about 0.3%, at $1,494.10 an ounce.

On Thursday, gold futures for December ended up $4.30, or 0.3%, at $1,498.30 an ounce, after surging up $10.50, or 0.7% a session earlier.

Gold futures gained 0.4% in the week.

Silver futures for December ended at $17.578 an ounce, down $0.034 from previous close, while Copper futures for December closed higher by $0.0385, at $2.6360 per pound.

China's economy grew at the slowest rate in nearly three decades in the third quarter, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out more measures.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed China's GDP grew 6% percent year-on-year in the third quarter after rising 6.2% in the second quarter. Growth was forecast to slow marginally to 6.1%.

However, industrial production in China advanced 5.8% annually in September after rising 4.4% in August and 4.8% in July. Retail sales also saw a surge, rising 7.8% in September, in line with expectations.

In U.S. economic news, the Conference Board's leading economic index edged down by 0.1% in September after dipping by a revised 0.2% in August. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.2% compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida on Friday said the economy is facing "evident" risks, while inflation remains muted.

In a speech in Washington, Clarida stressed interest-rate policy was not on a preset course and policy makers would make decisions meeting-by-meeting. Officials would assess the risks and will act as appropriate.


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U.S. Leading Economic Index Unexpectedly Edges Lower In September

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Partly reflecting weakness in the manufacturing sector, the Conference Board released a report on Friday showing an unexpected drop in its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of September.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in September after dipping by a revised 0.2 percent in August.

Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said the drop by the index reflected weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread, which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index.

"The LEI reflects uncertainty in the outlook and falling business expectations, brought on by the downturn in the industrial sector and trade disputes," said Ozyildirim.

He added, "Looking ahead, the LEI is consistent with an economy that is still growing, albeit more slowly, through the end of the year and into 2020."

The report also said the coincident economic index was unchanged in September after rising by 0.3 percent in August, while the lagging economic index crept up by 0.1 percent after falling by 0.4 percent.


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Russia CB Chief Nabiullina: GDP Growth To Return To 1.5-2% In 2020 – CNBC

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Russia's economic growth is expected to return to 1.5-2 percent next year, supported by stimulus from public spending and monetary policy, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said Friday.

"We think that budget policy will have a more stimulative stance and the normalization of our monetary policy will have additional positive effects on growth," Nabiullina told the broadcaster CNBC in an interview in Washington. In September, the central bank slashed its interest rate for a third consecutive policy session, in line with its guidance, and signaled more easing in future as growth remains below target and inflation expectations are elevated. The rate was cut by 25 basis points to 7 percent. The next policy session is due on October 25.

In June, the bank had slashed the rate by a quarter-point, which was the first reduction since March 2018.

Last month, the central bank also cut the GDP growth forecast for this year to 0.8-1.3 percent from 1-1.5 percent.


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*U.S. Leading Economic Index Dips 0.1% In September

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Leading Economic Index Dips 0.1% In September


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European Council Confirms Christine Lagarde As Next ECB Chief

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

European leaders on Friday confirmed the appointment of Christine Lagarde as the next president of the European Central Bank.

Lagarde, who is the former managing director of the International Monetary Fund, will take office on November 1, after the incumbent Mario Draghi steps down on October 31. She is the first woman to become the ECB chief.

The former French finance minister is set to inherit a fractured Governing Council as several hawkish policymakers, especially those from Germany, have voiced opposition to the latest round of stimulus measures announced in September.


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Turkish Lira Trades At 11-day High Against U.S. Dollar

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The Turkish Lira traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the European session on Friday, as the US and Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in northern Syria allowing Kurdish fighters to withdraw from the safe zone.

Under the deal, Kurdish forces who are allied with the US in the fight against ISIS will withdraw from Turkey's declared "safe zone" on the border.

The US has removed the threat of sanctions against Turkey.

The Turkish Lira firmed to an 11-day high of 5.76 against the greenback, from Thursday's closing value of 5.81, and held steady thereafter. The next likely upside target for the Turkish Lira is seen around the 4.5 level.


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October 18, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5da9f36a8b1ca.jpg

Since September 13, the EUR/USD has been trending-down within the depicted short-term bearish channel until signs of trend reversal were demonstrated around 1.0880 (Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern).

Shortly After, a bullish breakout above 1.0940 confirmed the mentioned reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020) maintaining bullish movement above the recent bullish trend.

Temporary bearish rejection and a sideway consolidation Range were demonstrated after hitting the price zone of (1.1000 -1.1020) on October 7.

That's why, initial Intraday bearish pullback was demonstrated towards 1.0940-10915 where another bullish swing was initiated.

The intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as long as the EUR/USD pair pursues its current movement above 1.0980 (Last Prominent Bottom).

Moreover, the current bullish breakout above 1.1120 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) should be maintained on a daily basis to ensure further bullish advancement towards 1.1175 and 1.1195.

Otherwise, any bearish closure below 1.1120 brings sideway consolidations even a bearish pullback towards 1.1065.

Trade recommendations :

Recent Intraday BUY entry was suggested around the price levels of 1.1000 (the depicted short-term bullish uptrend). All T/P levels were successfully reached.

Another valid BUY entry can be offered upon any bearish pullback towards 1.1065 where the depicted recent uptrend comes to meet the pair.

T/P levels to be located at 1.1120 then 1.1175. S/L should be placed below 1.1020.

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BoE's Ramsden Still Sees Scope For Rate Hikes If Brexit Goes Smooth: Report

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

If the UK moves out of the European Union smoothly, then the Bank of England has room to hike interest rates in a limited and gradual manner, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden told Bloomberg News in an interview.

"The kind of guidance we've been giving -- in the world of a deal it still applies," the banker said.

"We're not saying over what timeframe, but limited and gradual is a reasonable qualitative framing," said Ramsden.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker reached a new Brexit deal on Thursday. However, the proposed deal is expected to face stiff opposition in parliament when it is put to vote in the House of Commons on Saturday.

According to Ramsden, a transition agreement and clarity for U.K. businesses will bring some pickup in investment, which in turn would boost demand and productivity over time.

However, earlier this week, BoE policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said rate hikes would only eventually come back on the agenda if a Brexit deal is struck and that stimulate investment sufficiently to prevent the need for easier monetary policy.

Vlieghe said entrenched Brexit uncertainty is likely to keep economic growth below potential, and require some monetary stimulus.


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