Weekly Bitcoin analysis

Trading 05 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been trying since May to break above the key resistance area near the February highs. Price is mostly moving sideways. Resistance is key here at $9,500-$10,000 area. A rejection could push price back towards $7,500.

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Red line -weekly resistance trend line

BTCUSD is trading below our red resistance trend line. As we explained above there we find key long-term resistance. Bulls need a break above the $9,500-$10,000 area in order to move higher towards $12,000-$13,000 area. The longer it takes to break the resistance, the higher the chances of a rejection at current levels. A pull back towards $7,500 is justified.

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Weekly EURUSD analysis

Trading 05 juil 2020 Commentaire »

EURUSD has tried several times the past few weeks to recapture the 1.13 level. Each time price managed to push through it but sellers were stronger and price never managed to make a weekly close above it. This price action signals the importance of the resistance in that level.

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Red rectangle - resistance area

EURUSD has major horizontal resistance in the area around 1.13-1.1350. A major reversal and top in the first quarter of the year and four attempts since May to recapture 1.13 has been unsuccessful. I prefer to be bearish below key resistance like this. In case of a new rejection combined with a break below 1.12, this would lead to more downside towards 1.11-1.1075 area and possibly even lower. A weekly close above 1.13 will change my view to bullish.

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Spain's Service Sector Returns To Growth

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Spain's service sector returned to growth in June following the unprecedented declines in activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic, survey data from IHS Markit showed Friday.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index climbed sharply to 50.2 in June from 27.9 in May. A score above 50 indicates expansion. The reading was forecast to rise to 45.9.

Nonetheless, growth was marginal and followed on from a period of unprecedented contraction in service sector activity.

The composite output index advanced to 49.7 in June from 29.2 in the previous month. This was the highest score since February.

While firms in the services economy recorded marginal growth, manufacturing output continued to fall.


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Gold remains in bullish trend

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Gold price has pulled back as expected towards $1,750-60 area and is now moving back towards the recent highs at $1,780. Trend remains bullish as price is still inside the upward sloping channel and so far every time price challenges the lower channel boundary, bulls step in to push price back up.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The recent low at $1,757 did not break below $1,746 low made on June 26th. Price is holding inside the channel and has the potential to make a new higher high. The bearish divergence by the RSI warns bulls not to be overly optimistic. Yes trend remains bullish but bulls should also protect their gains by raising their stops. Any move below $1,758 would be considered a sign of weakness and could lead to a deeper correction.

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South Africa Private Sector Downturn Slows In June

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

South Africa's private sector contracted at a softer pace in June as the government relaxed the lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday.

The headline Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a three-month high of 42.5 in June from a record low 32.5 in May. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Output and new business declined further in June, with the rate of fall weaker than the previous month. Demand decreased at the slowest rate since March.

New export orders declined at a softer pace in June and new business fell by historical standard.

Employment continued to decline in June, and input purchases and stock levels curbed as firms eased cost pressure.

Firms are confident about the growth in the next 12-months in June and was optimistic despite easing lockdown measures.

Suppliers' delivery time lengthened for the seventeenth straight month in June and lower staffs led to decline in supplier performance.

Input cost fell for the second month in a row in June and purchasing prices were reduced at a softer pace. Output charges eased sharply for the second consecutive month.

"This relaxation of COVID-19-related measures came despite the continued rise in case numbers, as President Ramaphosa reportedly opted to preserve economic livelihoods and boost the ailing South African economy," David Owen, Economist at IHS Markit, said.

"However, demand levels still remain weak, and the growing surge of COVID-19 cases will likely worry consumers going forward," Owen added.


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Turkey Consumer Price, Producer Price Inflation Rises In June

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Turkey's consumer prices and producer price inflation increased in June, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Friday.

The consumer prices index rose 12.62 percent year-on-year in June, following an 11.39 percent increase in May. Economists had expected a 12.9 percent rise.

Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco grew 22.41 percent annually in June. Prices for miscellaneous goods and services, and housing increased by 19.80 percent and 14.95 percent, respectively.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.13 percent in June. Economists had expected a 0.65 percent increase.

The producer price index rose 6.17 percent yearly in June, slower than the 5.53 percent increase in May.

Among the main industrial sectors, prices for durable goods grew 13.04 percent annually in June and prices for capital goods gained 11.57 percent.

Prices for non-durable consumer goods and intermediate goods prices rose by 8.0 percent and 6.14 percent. Meanwhile, energy prices fell 5.0 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices increased 0.69 percent in June.


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EURUSD remains inside triangle pattern

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

EURUSD continues to respect the boundaries of the triangle pattern. More action is expected to be seen from Monday as the space inside the triangle is running out. As we explained in previous analysis, I believe the most probable outcome would be a break to the downside.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

So far price respects the boundaries. If support at 1.1225-1.12 fails to hold, I expect price to move towards 1.11. If resistance at 1.1285-1.13 is broken, then 1.14 should be challenged. Longer-term view I have is to wait patiently for a move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1085.

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GBPUSD pulls back but bulls can be back next week

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

GBPUSD had shown short-term overbought signs in the 4 hour chart and is pulling back after making a short-term top at 1.2522. Price is expected to form a higher low around 1.24 before the resumption of the up trend.

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Red rectangle - resistance area

Green lines - expected path

GBPUSD has made a higher low at 1.2250 relative to the May low at 1.2075. This formation could unfold into a bigger leg higher that could eventually push price above 1.28. For this bullish scenario to come true, bulls need to start forming higher highs and higher lows. The last leg up from 1.2250 to 1.2525 is now under correction. This correction needs to provide a higher low around 1.24 in order to fuel the next leg higher. Our preferred strategy is to be bullish around 1.24, with stops at 1.2250 targeting a move above 1.2525 and most probably towards 1.2655.

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Italy's Service Sector Downturn Eases In June

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Italy's service sector continued to shrink in June but the pace of downturn eased markedly as restrictions to combat the coronavirus disease pandemic were loosened, survey data from IHS Markit showed Friday.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index advanced sharply to 46.4 in June from 28.9 in May. The score signaled a fourth consecutive reduction in service sector activity. Economists had forecast a reading of 47.0.

Incoming new business dropped further, with the reduction remaining sharp despite easing.

Amid muted demand conditions, service providers reduced staff numbers markedly. Encouragingly, activity expectations improved, but the level of positive sentiment remained subdued in the context of historical data.

The composite output index logged a reading of 47.6 in June versus 33.9 in May. At the sector level, services remained the primary drag on output, as manufacturers recorded a return to marginal growth.

With weak demand conditions domestically and around the world, any meaningful recovery from the brutal economic blow dealt by the pandemic is likely to remain slow, Lewis Cooper, an economist at IHS Markit said.


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Sweden Service Sector Rises In June

Trading 03 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Sweden's services sector improved in June, survey data from Swedbank and the logistics association SILF showed on Friday.

The Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector increased to 49.2 in June from 41.6 in May. However, any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

"The rapid recovery is partly a rebound following the deep fall in the spring, but is also supported by the easing of restrictions on the corona virus," Swedbank analyst Jorgen Kennemar said.

Among the sub-index, order intake increased in June. The employment index rose marginally, yet signaled decline in jobs. Suppliers' delivery time declined and business plans were more optimistic.

The composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, rose to 48.7 in June from 41.1 in the previous month.

"Although the rise for a single month is not to be interpreted, the downward trend has been broken and the coming months will be a test if the recovery in business continues," Kennemar said.


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