Ichimoku cloud analysis on EURUSD

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

EURUSD is ending the week at its lowest levels. Having reached our target 1.2220, it is a bearish sign to see such a strong reversal. Price tried to break out above the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) but it got rejected and is now challenging the lower cloud boundary. Trend remains neutral in Ichimoku terms.

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EURUSD remains inside the Kumo. Price has crossed below the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen indicators. This is a sign of weakness. Breaking below 1.2045, where we find the Kumo lower boundary, this would be bearish. If the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) crosses below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) then we have another bearish signal. The Chikou span (black line indicator) is below the candlestick pattern and this is also bearish. So far the Ichimoku cloud indicator on a Daily basis provides us with bearish indications. EURUSD is more likely to continue lower.

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USDJPY reaches our next target of 106.70

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

USDJPY remains in a bullish trend. Price has reached the upper channel boundary at 106.70 which was our target that we mentioned in our previous post. The RSI continues to provide a warning to bulls as it was not able to make higher highs.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red line- bearish divergence

USDJPY is near the channel resistance. At current levels I prefer to be neutral and take any bullish profits. The RSI is providing a bearish divergence and I expect price to make another pull back lower. This divergence by the RSI is just a warning and not a reversal sign. So far price continues making higher highs and higher lows.

Concluding, having rallied from 104.92 to 106.70, USDJPY is now at a point where bulls need to be very cautious as a pull back is imminent.

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Ethereum still under pressure near February lows.

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Ethereum is trading at $1,450 area after a strong bounce from $1,365 to $1,707. In our last analysis about Ethereum we mentioned that as long as price is below $1,776 we expect price to remain vulnerable to a move at least to recent lows of $1,365 and maybe lower.

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Blue rectangle - resistance

Black lines -Fibonacci retracement levels

ETH/USD got rejected at the 50% Fibonacci level and is now moving lower towards the recent lows. Breaking below $1,365 will be a bearish signal, implying more downside is to be expected. Next downside target if recent lows are broken is at $1,000-$1,050. Short-term resistance is at $1,707. Breaking above this level will surely push price towards $1,776 and maybe higher. For now price remains in bearish short-term trend after the top at $2,034.

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Gold price at its weekly lows

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Gold price today broke below the double bottom formation and the November low at $1,763. Price has sharply moved lower towards $1,730 as expected by our previous analysis, making a low at $1,716. Short-term trend remains bearish.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Red line - long-term support trend line

For some time in our analysis we pointed out that as long as price is below $1,850 the key pivot level, price was vulnerable to a move towards $1,750-$1,700. Also our Ichimoku cloud analysis has also pointed out that Gold was about to test major cloud support around $1,700. Today Gold price has reached the lower channel boundary and is very close to the long-term upward sloping support trend line at $1,690. So far there is no sign of a reversal or that of a major bottom.Gold bulls tried mid week to push price back above $1,820-30 but failed to do so. Price made another lower high and is now making lower lows. The Daily RSI is still making new lows and not in oversold area. Resistance is found now at $1,760, previous support. Any bounce should find strong resistance at $1,760 and next at $1,810.

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Indian Economy Grows In December Qtr

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

India's economy expanded in the final three months of 2020, thus exiting a severe recession caused by sharp contractions in the previous quarters due to the impact of one of the harshest lockdowns to battle the coronavirus pandemic.

Gross domestic product grew 0.4 percent in the three months to December, data from the statistics ministry showed Friday.

The decline in the September quarter was revised to 7.3 percent from 7.5 percent and the contraction in the June quarter was revised to a record 24.4 percent from 23.9 percent.

The GDP estimate for the fiscal year ending March 31 this year was revised to -8.0 percent from -7.7 percent projected on January 29. In the fiscal year 2019-20, the economy grew 4.0 percent.


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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops Less Than Initially Estimated In February

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Revised data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated by slightly less than initially estimated in the month of February.

The report showed the consumer sentiment index for February was upwardly revised to 76.8 from the initial estimate of 76.2.

The revised reading came in above economist estimates of 76.5 but was still below the final January reading of 79.0.

"All of February's loss was due to households with incomes below $75,000, with the declines mainly concentrated in future economic prospects," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

He added, "The worst of the pandemic may be nearing its end, but few consumers anticipate the type of persistent and robust economic growth that restores employment conditions to the very positive pre-pandemic levels."

The report showed the index of consumer expectations slid to 70.7 in February from 74.0 in January, while the current economic conditions index edged down to 86.2 from 86.7.

On the inflation front, one-year inflation expected jumped to 3.3 percent in February from 3.0 percent in January. Five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.7 percent.

"While consumers clearly anticipate a spurt in inflation in the year ahead, the overall evidence does not indicate the emergence of an inflationary psychology that makes the expectation of inflation a self-fulfilling prophecy," Curtin said.

Meanwhile, a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumer confidence in the U.S. improved more than expected in the month of February.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 91.3 in February from a downwardly revised 88.9 in January.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to inch up to 90.0 from the 89.3 originally reported for the previous month.


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Portugal Economy Grows Less Than Estimated In Q4

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Portugal's economy grew less than estimated in the final three months of 2020, amid a resurgence in the coronavirus infections across Europe. Gross domestic product increased 0.2 percent from the third quarter, when the economy expanded grew 13.3 percent, revised data from Statistics Portugal showed Friday. The fourth quarter growth was earlier estimated at 0.4 percent. In the first and second quarters, output decreased 4.0 and 13.9 percent, respectively.

Growth in the fourth quarter was largely driven by domestic demand, the agency said. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the economy shrank 6.1 percent, which was much severe than the initially estimated 5.9 percent. In the third quarter, the economy contracted 5.7 percent. The annual shrinkage was the fourth in a row.

For the full year 2020, GDP decreased a record 7.6 percent after a revised 2.5 percent growth in 2019. Domestic demand made a significant negative contribution to the annual rate of change of GDP, mainly due to the decrease of private consumption. Steep falls in exports and imports of both goods and services made the contribution of net external demand was more negative in 2020. In particular, tourism exports had an unprecedented reduction.


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Chicago Business Barometer Pulls Back More Than Expected In February

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

MNI Indicators released a report on Friday showing a bigger than expected slowdown in the pace of growth in Chicago-area business activity in the month of February.

The report said MNI Indicators' Chicago business barometer dropped to 59.5 in February after jumping to a more than two-year high of 63.8 in January.

While a reading above 50 still indicates growth in Chicago-area business activity, economists had expected the index to show a more modest decrease to 61.1.

The bigger than expected drop by the business barometer came as the new orders index tumbled by 11 points to its lowest level since last August. The production index also slumped by 9.3 points.

MNI Indicators said anecdotal evidence painted a mixed picture, with some firms experiencing a downturn due to the coronavirus pandemic, while others report strong consumer demand.

Meanwhile, the report said the employment index jumped by 5.7 points to a sixteen-month high but remained in contraction territory.

The prices paid index also inched up by 0.1 points, reaching the highest level since September of 2018, as companies again noted increase in price for raw materials, especially tin.

MNI Indicators said 87.2 percent of respondents were undecided when asked if their organization would require their workforce and contingent labor to be vaccinated for the coronavirus.


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*U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Upwardly Revised To 76.8 In February

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Upwardly Revised To 76.8 In February


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*Chicago Business Barometer Drops To 59.5 In February

Trading 26 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Chicago Business Barometer Drops To 59.5 In February


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com