EUR/USD: dollar intends to act ahead, euro betting on a global recovery

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

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The greenback starts the new week on a minor note, shedding about 0.1% and trading at 90.32 points.

Risk sentiment is still the dominant factor for the USD.

In the absence of significant fundamental drivers, hopes for increased government support for the American economy and continued vaccination against COVID-19 in the world are reducing investor interest in the protective dollar.

On Saturday, the U.S. Senate acquitted former President Donald Trump through impeachment proceedings. Investors believe that Congressmen can now fully focus on fiscal stimulus.

It is clear that the American economy still needs support. This was indicated by weaker-than-expected weekly US unemployment claims data released on Thursday, as well as the University of Michigan consumer confidence index released Friday, which slipped to 76.2 points in February, reaching the lowest level in the last three months.

The $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package announced this week by US President Joe Biden will move to the next stage when the House Budget Committee gathers all of its components into a single piece of legislation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hopes that work on the package can be completed by the end of February.

Meanwhile, market participants continue to debate how the adoption of the next package of fiscal stimulus in the US will affect the dollar.

Some analysts believe that this will strengthen the dollar as it should accelerate the recovery of the United States relative to other countries, while others believe that it will contribute to global reflation, which should lift riskier assets at the expense of the USD.

"Although the greenback downward trend remains the dominant theme in the foreign exchange market, there is a possibility of a short-term appreciation of the dollar in the future due to the outstripping economic indicators in the United States," said the Commonwealth Bank of Australia experts.

Analysts at TD Securities are of the same opinion.

"The idea that the US economy will recover faster than anywhere else, thanks to the relatively successful introduction of vaccines, could drive the dollar up broadly over the next four to six weeks. But then other G-10 countries will catch up with the introduction of vaccines, which will allow the global economy to recover in the second half of the year," they said.

The main currency pair was trading in a narrow range on Monday, staying at two-week highs amid a thin market.

US exchanges are closed for President's Day, while China is still celebrating New Years.

Therefore, traders focused on the macroeconomic statistics of the euro area.

Thus, in December the volume of industrial production in the region decreased by 1.6% on a monthly basis, and by 0.8% on an annualized basis. Analysts were expecting a decrease in the indicator by 1% and 0.3%, respectively. At the same time, the foreign exchange trade surplus in December increased to €29.2 billion from €25.8 billion recorded in November.

There is reason to believe that economic recovery in the EU will depend more on export demand than on domestic efforts.

At the same time, the euro should stay relatively well against the USD if the global recovery proceeds at a steady pace.

So far, the peak levels of late January are limiting the growth of the main currency pair, while the lows since the beginning of the year act as reliable support.

A rise above 1.2190 should ease selling pressure and retest this year's highs at 1.2350.

Meanwhile, a drawdown below 1.1950 will confirm the bearish sentiment of the pair and aim for 1.1800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on February 16? Analysis of Monday. Getting ready for Tuesday

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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The GBP/USD pair just continued its upward movement on Monday. No correction, no pullback. Where the movement ended on Friday, is also where trading began on Monday night. As if there were no days off. Thus, on the one hand, we have a strong upward trend that would seem to be easy to work out. On the other hand, there have been no new buy signals since Monday. The price did not try to approach the trend line, and the MACD indicator did not go down to the zero level. Thus, our trading strategy for beginners, which assumes simple indicators, simple patterns and simple signals, has not formed a single one on such a strong movement. And here it is worth making a digression. Any trading system works well on only one type of movement. There are trading systems that work well on the trend, but are unprofitable in the flat. There are trading systems that allow you to make money in the flat, but do not bring profit on the trend. Likewise, many trading systems trade well in the classic "trend momentum - correction" movement and poorly in the "trend momentum - trend momentum - low pullback" movement. Thus, we advise you to not get upset because such a strong movement could not be worked out. It is worth remembering that it is not always possible to open deals every day, and the rules of the trading system should be followed unquestioningly, otherwise you can get losses.

There were no major publications or reports in the UK on Monday. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to explain the reason for the pound's growth. Moreover, the pound/dollar pair has recently regularly updated its 2.5-year highs and is moving up almost without recoil. That is, on the face of an increase in movement, which should have been caused by something. But nothing like that happened on the weekend or on Monday. Thus, we are inclined to believe that the pound's growth is speculative. Something like how bitcoin has been growing in recent months.

No major publications or events in the UK and America on Tuesday, February 16. However, as we all see, now the pound/dollar pair does not need a foundation and macroeconomics to continue its upward movement. Therefore, tomorrow you will have to trade on technical signals again, without fear that they will be interrupted by any fundamental events.

Possible scenarios on February 16:

1) You are advised to consider long positions, since an upward trend line has been formed. However, the movement is practically recoilless, so signals are generated infrequently. Beginners need to wait for the price to rebound from the trend line or the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level and a new buy signal is formed. The targets will be around the resistance level of 1.3915.

2) Short positions are irrelevant at the moment, since an upward trend has formed. However, if the price settles below the trend line, then the downward movement may continue within, at least, a correction. Therefore, in this case, you are advised to open short positions while aiming for the support level of 1.3796.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 15, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

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Few Months ago, the price levels of (1.3400 - 1.3500) have prevented further bullish movement for a few weeks.

Bearish targets were projected towards 1.3300 and 1.3200 where the pair has found significant support zone.

Hence, a bullish spike was expressed towards 1.3480-1.3500 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel has previously provided bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, another bullish spike has recently been demonstrated towards 1.3600 where the upper limit of the current consolidation channel applied considerable bearish rejection again.

Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating around the price-levels of 1.3700.

Bearish reversal was recently demonstrated. A quick bearish decline was initially demonstrated towards 1.3450.

However, the GBP/USD pair has failed to maintain bearish decline below 1.3200 in the previous attempt. Instead, bullish persistence above 1.3400 invalidated the bearish scenario for the short-term.

Another temporary bullish movement is being expressed above the previous WEEKLY High (1.3700).

Further upside movement may be expected towards the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.3900 where bearish rejection and a possible SELL Entry are suggested.

Short-term outlook can turn into bearish if only the GBP/USD pair could break below and maintain movement below 1.3550. If so, a quick bearish decline initially towards 1.3400 would be expected.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 15, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

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Recently, the EURUSD pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).

That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in previous articles.

Recently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 was needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum. This allowed the recent bearish movement to pursue towards 1.2050 where the depicted key-zone is located.

However, Intraday traders were advised to look for short-term BUY Trade around the price zone of 1.2000.

This price zone provided temporary bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD. However, lack of sufficient bullish momentum was recently demonstrated.

Early Exit was suggested for the previous BUY Position while waiting for a possible bearish continuation Pattern.

Bearish persistence below 1.2000 enhanced temporary bearish movement towards 1.1960 where significant bullish rejection was expressed.

That's why, the current bullish spike has pursued towards 1.2130-1.2150 (backside of the broken trend line) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated.

Initial Bearish target would be located around 1.2020.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*Nigerian Economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala First Female, First African To Become WTO Chief

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Nigerian Economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala First Female, First African To Become WTO Chief


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on February 16? Overview of trade on Monday. Getting ready

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

1-hour chart of EUR/USD

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On Monday, EUR/USD was still trading mixed. On the one hand, the currency pair left the trading range of 1.2111 – 1.2144. On the other hand, the pair has not resumed the downtrend yet, but the upper border of the channel again did not allow traders to move further upwards. All in all, the overall trend is still bullish. However, the pair is not able to surpass 1.2144. At the same time, the bears cannot take advantage of this, insisting on the downtrend. Under such market conditions, we should certainly wait for new signals.

Let me remind beginners that recently EUR/USD has been trading with low volatility. In other words, the price makes no more than 50 pips from a local low to a local high. Another thing is that it is always hard to enter the market at the very beginning of price action and enter at the end of this price action. I mean that all beginners can earn is a profit of 20-25 pips intraday. Another trouble is that it is essential to catch the right moment in the market. For example, today at the early trading day it was a good idea for beginners to open long positions because formally the uptrend line had been already formed and MACD indicator pointed upwards being at about the zero level. However, we could have earned no more than 20 pips on this deal on condition that such positions had been opened in the early morning.

On Monday, February 15, the macroeconomic background lacked market catalysts. This is confirmed by low volatility. Traders remained indifferent to industrial production data from the Eurozone, though the reading was disappointing. Industrial output contracted 1.6% in January month-on-month. The indicator dropped 0.8% from December a year ago. The economic calendar contained no other economic data.

Tuesday is going to be a more interesting day in terms of the information environment, though it does not contain a lot of reports. Let me turn your attention to the only macroeconomic report, the revised eurozone's GDP for Q4 2020. Analysts project a drop in the economic output of the euro area in the final quarter of 2020. So, the EU economy continued to slow down without any signs of recovery. This is bearish for the single European currency. If the flash estimates come true or if the actual scores are worse than expected, the euro could make another downward correction, breaking the uptrend line. Tomorrow, investors will get to know ZEW surveys with economic sentiment indicators for Germany and the Eurozone, but this will be a report of secondary importance. It will give insight into investors' morale in February.

The following scenarios are possible on February 16

1)Long positions are still valid at present in view of the clear-cut uptrend line. Thus, beginners are recommended to wait until MACD indicator generates a new buy signal. Please be aware that the price has not been able to climb above 1.2144. Besides, it would be a good idea to open long positions if the price fixes above 1.2144 with upward targets of 1.2165 and 1.2180.

2)Trading the pair downwards is not a good idea at the moment as the overall trend is still bullish. Nevertheless, if the price fixes below the downtrend line, the time will be ripe to open short positions with caution, setting targets at 1.2089 and 1.2059.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance levels are the levels that are targets when opening buy or sell orders. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Up / down arrows show whether the pair should be traded up or down when reaching or overcoming particular obstacles.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) is a histogram and a signal line. When they are crossed, this signals a market entry. It is recommended for use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports in the economic calendar can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*Canadian Manufacturing Sales Climb 0.9% In December

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Climb 0.9% In December


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: l’euro marque une pause dans l’attente de catalyseurs

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »
L’euro se stabilise autour des 1,2130$ en l’absence de Wall Street et dans l’attente de catalyseurs.

February 15, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

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February 1, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Few weeks ago, another episode of upside movement was expressed above the depicted uptrend line (in blue) towards 1.2250 then 1.2350 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a bearish downside reversal signal.

Shortly after, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around these price levels. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur.

However, the EUR/USD pair has failed to pursue towards lower price levels. Instead, the pair has spiked above the depicted Weekly HIGH around 1.2270 before the current downside rejection was initiated around 1.2350.

Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2250 - 1.2200 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.2170 which corresponded to a previous congestion zone as well as a prominent key-zone.

Persistence below the price level of 1.2170 has turned the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhanced further downside decline was demonstrated towards 1.2080, 1.1990 and 1.1950.

However, Recent Buying Pressure existed around 1.1950, leading to the current quick upside spike above 1.1990 again.

This indicates lack of sufficient downside pressure for the pair. Hence, the current upside movement extended towards 1.2130 before considering to SELL the EURUSD pair again.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for the current upside movement to pursue towards the depicted Resistance Level around 1.2150 - 1.2170 for a valid SELL Entry.

S/L should be placed above 1.2170 while Initial T/P levels to be located around 1.1990 and 1.1950.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD vulnerbale to a move below 1.21.

Trading 15 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

EURUSD continues to trade near 1.2130. Price has been trading around 1.21-1.2145 for the last 5 sessions. The zone at 1.2130-1.2145 is confirmed resistance area and a break above is needed in order for the uptrend to resume towards 1.2180-1.22.

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Price is turning lower after another try to break above 1.2145. Short-term support is found at recent low at 1.2080. EURUSD is expected to make another move lower at least towards 1.2050 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move from 1.1950 to 1.2150. For intraday traders current price action favors bearish positions as the risk reward favors bears. The stop for a bearish trade is very close (1.2150) while that for a bullish position at 1.1950.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com