Litecoin breaks triangle pattern and reaches our target

Trading 14 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

In our previous analysis we noted the triangle pattern forming in the LTC/USD and we said that a break above $191 would push price towards $215. On Friday price broke out of the triangle. On Saturday price has reached the target and then some more. Bulls need to be cautious.

analytics60299a7c7526c.jpg

Triangle patterns are usually found near the end of the trend. Price has broken the triangle boundaries and reached our target. Now we prefer to be neutral and take profits. Another reason why prefer this stance is because we observe some warning signals in the Daily chart.

analytics60299ac9ef7b2.jpg

The Daily RSI is still not making higher highs. The RSI is forming a bearish divergence.This is the 2nd higher high in price that is not followed by a higher high in the RSI. This is a warning that at least a short-term top could be close. This is not a reversal signal. Trend remains bullish. Support is at $191-$192 the break out area. What was once resistance is now support.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on February 15? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday

Trading 14 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

analytics602973c081792.jpg

The GBP/USD pair corrected by 90 points at the end of this week, afterwards it sharply resumed its upward movement. Unfortunately, it was difficult for beginners to work out all these movements, since there was an almost recoilless upward movement at first, during which practically no new buy signals were formed, then there was a consolidation below the upward trend line, which we said was high. is likely to be false, and a new upward trend line was formed after Friday trading. However, it was created when the upward movement had ended. Therefore, novice traders now have an upward trend at their disposal, but you are advised to trade bullish only if a new buy signal appears: either a rebound from the trend line or from the MACD indicator. At the same time, the pound may start a new round of corrective movement, and you also need to be ready for this. But in any case, breaking the trend line can also be a way to form a sell signal. In general, the pound continues to trade near its 2.5-year highs, so it may update them at any time.

Quite important reports were published in the UK on Friday. The first was in terms of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020, which caused a lot of discussion among traders. Forecasts have been negative for a long time, and even the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that at best, GDP in the fourth quarter will not change compared to the third. However, in the first assessment, this report turned out to be positive, that is, with an increase of +1.0% q/q. Of course, one should wait for the final assessment and only after should you draw conclusions, however, the first assessment was enough for the pound to rise in price again. The rest of the reports were less important and traders no longer paid any attention to them. Although the report on industrial production could put pressure on the pound, as it turned out to be weaker than forecasted.

There will be no major releases in the UK and America on Monday, February 15. Perhaps the markets will try to win back the failed attempt to impeach Donald Trump, but there is very little hope for this. Markets continue to wait for the US Congress to approve a new stimulus package for the US economy worth $1.9 trillion. And this news may affect the pair's movement (as well as the euro/dollar). For now, you are advised to prioritize technical factors.

Possible scenarios on February 15:

1) You are advised to consider long positions again, since the upward trend line was created. Thus, beginners need to wait for the price to rebound from the trend line or the MACD indicator discharges to the zero level and a new buy signal to form. The targets will be around the levels 1.3882 and 1.3906.

2) Short positions are not relevant at the moment, since an upward trend has been created. However, if the price settles below the trend line, then the downward movement may continue within, at least, a correction. Therefore, in this case, you are advised to open short positions with targets at the support levels of 1.3764 and 1.3744.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on February 15? Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday

Trading 14 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

analytics60295de51354c.jpg

The EUR/USD pair was trading very ambiguously on Friday. Considering the fact that important macroeconomic reports were not released on that day, the pair traded quite actively (more actively than this week's average). The nature of the movement was even stranger. At first, the US dollar began to rise in price, but by the end of the trading day it had lost almost all its advantage. Thus, the euro/dollar pair's quotes left the horizontal channel, in which they spent a couple of days, and tried to form a new downward trend. However, at the same time there is a feeling that the upward trend is preserved, and Friday's downward movement is simply a rollback within its framework. Recall that the trend line should be built at least on two distinct extreme points. Such a second point has formed at the moment. However, we are still not sure that this is not a downward trend, so the trend line was imposed using a dotted line. Nevertheless, we are leaning towards the option of continuing the upward movement and consider it as the main one. In our last euro review, we advised beginners to trade the pair if the price leaves the horizontal channel. It happened on Friday - the price settled lower. Therefore, in this case, you are advised to open short positions while aiming for 1.2089 and 1.2071. The first goal was eventually reached, but the second was not. Therefore, beginners could earn only 10-15 points that day. But, given the multidirectional movements during the day, this is also a good result.

The macroeconomic background was extremely weak again on Friday, February 12. By and large, there were no important macroeconomic reports that day, just as there were no fundamental events. Thus, novice traders could only pay attention to the consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan, which turned out to be weaker than the predicted values. However, we are at a time when traders calmly ignore reports on GDP or inflation. Therefore, the upward movement in the afternoon is unlikely to be associated with it.

The European Union will publish a report on industrial production for December on Monday, February 15. However, it is also unlikely to have any effect on the pair's movement. Thus, technique, technique and again technique. This greatly simplifies the life of novice traders, since it will be necessary to analyze and make trading decisions only for one type of analysis. The pair might move in a calm manner on Monday, as it did for the entire period of last week.

Possible scenarios on February 15:

1) Long positions are currently conditionally relevant, since an upward trend line has formed. So now novice traders are advised to wait for a new buy signal from the MACD indicator and start trading bullish with targets at the resistance levels 1.2149 and 1.2167.

2) Trading for a fall is currently irrelevant, as the upward trend remains in force. However, if the price settles below the upward trend line, then it will be possible to carefully open short positions while aiming for support levels of 1.2077 and 1.2059.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast and trading signals for Bitcoin for February 14. Analysis of Saturday deals. Recommendations for the revival. Bitcoin

Trading 14 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

analytics60290f3a3c713.jpg

#Bitcoin 1H

The Bitcoin cryptocurrency resumed its upward movement on the hourly timeframe on Sunday, February 14, having previously pushed off the critical Kijun-sen line. Thus, attempts to start a downward correction ended in failure, and Bitcoin is growing in price again, despite a huge number of skeptics. The price has successfully overcome the $48,233 level and now the next target for growth is the $50,834 resistance level. In principle, the technical picture is now extremely simple. The price cannot even settle below the Kijun-sen line, so there is no reason to expect a correction or the end of the upward trend. From a technical point of view. There is also an upward trend line, to which the price does not even approach, the trend is so strong now. Consequently, traders are encouraged to continue to trade bullish despite being near all-time highs. Who said that being near the highs is a reason for selling? In yesterday's bitcoin review, we advised you to buy the cryptocurrency when the price bounced off the Kijun-sen line, which then ran at $46,301. Such a rebound was created, so Bitcoin should have been bought. The first target was perfectly reached ($48,233) and the price did not even stay near it, so now you can stay with long positions opened yesterday according to our recommendations.

analytics60291fb4b87ad.jpg

#Bitcoin 15M.

analytics60290f4be694b.jpg

Both linear regression channels turned to the upside again on the 15-minute timeframe. Since the price failed to settle below the critical line, which is especially clearly seen on the current timeframe, the upward movement may continue, while the trend remains rising in the short term.

Meanwhile, the public continues to debate the act of Elon Musk and his Tesla company, which invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin last week. Musk was even more criticized for this act than supported, as it turned out that Tesla received environmental subsidies, and bitcoin is not an environmentally friendly product. Moreover, it was Musk's statements about bitcoin that provoked a new hype in the cryptocurrency market. Prominent economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis and is one of the most prominent critics of Bitcoin, said central banks and other regulatory agencies should closely monitor Musk's actions and words. If there are no questions about the deals of his companies, then the fact that his posting on a social network causes Bitcoin to rise by $5,000 within a day is not normal. Thus, we are even talking about allegations of manipulation of the cryptocurrency market. Roubini also criticized the CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Sailor, who also invested a large share of the company's reserves in bitcoin, thus acting completely irresponsible, according to Roubini. Nouriel also believes that bitcoin may collapse in the near future if the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex and Tether lose the court on returning $800 million, which were frozen in the accounts of Crypto Capital. Tether is also under investigation by the Department of Justice and the New York Attorney General on charges of manipulating the cryptocurrency market. Roubini also believes that cryptocurrencies are a tool for scammers who steal billions of dollars every day. The future, according to Roubini, is in digital currencies, which will be issued by central banks, they will also be controlled and provided by them. This will lead to the optimization of monetary policy.

Possible scenarios on February 14:

1) Buyers continue to hold the cryptocurrency market in their hands and are ready to move Bitcoin to new highs in value. Since the "cue ball" has settled above the $48,233 level, we recommend staying with long positions while aiming for the resistance level of $50,834. The total Take Profit in this case can be up to $3,800 per 1 lot. Stop Loss can be placed just below $ 48,233.

2) Bears are still resting and waiting for the moment when buyers start taking profits on long positions. Thus, we do not recommend selling Bitcoin in the near future (at least today), as it is very dangerous in such a strong upward trend. Nevertheless, getting the price to settle below the critical line ($46,530) will allow us to expect a correction to the Senkou Span B line ($42,517), which can be used to open short positions.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the 1-hour timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced off.

Yellow lines - trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Preview of the new week. UK inflation is the most important report of the week.

Trading 14 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

analytics6028d59ba8a79.jpg

The British pound continues its carefree growth and does not take into account most of the factors that should have long ago contributed to the beginning of at least a downward correction. This week, the pound/dollar pair has increased by another 150 points. The most important thing is that the almost recoilless upward trend persists. And this is the main conclusion that we can make after analyzing all the factors. The British economy, which continues to experience difficult times, is slowly beginning to recover from the crisis. This is evidenced at least by the positive GDP in the fourth quarter. Although the increase was small, it is still better than the next reduction that traders were waiting for. However, if GDP grew slightly in the fourth quarter, then this value is not final and other macroeconomic indicators leave much to be desired. For example, the unemployment rate or the index of business activity in the service sector. Thus, we can only draw the same conclusion as for the euro currency. The main factor in the growth of the British currency remains the huge amount of trillions of dollars poured into the American economy using the "turn on the printing press" method. We don't see any other reasons. But even in this scenario, it is hardly possible to conclude the logic of the current increase in the pair's quotes. Recall that the upward movement is almost recoilless. And this is always strange and resembles the growth of bitcoin or oil, that is, in other words, speculative growth. When a currency or instrument grows, it is not because there are specific reasons, but because more and more traders want to join the "easy trend" and make "easy money" from it. And the most interesting thing is that there is nothing else to do. The trend is strong, why trade against it now? But it is precisely this logic that leads to even more unjustified growth of the British currency.

No major reports will be published in either the US or the UK until Wednesday next week. Only on the third trading day of the week, the consumer price index in Britain will be published, and in the United States – changes in retail trade, changes in industrial production, and the minutes of the Fed from the last meeting. British inflation is interesting. In December, its value was 0.6% y/y, but now experts expect it to slow down to 0.4%-0.5% in annual terms. Core inflation may fall from 1.4% y/y to 1.2%-1.3% y/y. Thus, this report may become the next in a series of weak ones from the Kingdom. In the United States, retail sales may grow by 1% in January and industrial production – by 0.5%. In principle, if these figures come true, it will be very good. Unfortunately, we still do not expect that the statistics will be worked out by the markets. Therefore, the maximum that can be done with it is to check the box and conclude that the British economy continues to stall, as well as the European one. On Thursday, the standard report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US will be published, and on Friday – retail sales in the UK and business activity indices in both countries of interest to the pound/dollar pair. We are most interested in the report on British business activity in the service sector. It has been experiencing big problems in recent months due to winter "lockdowns". Thus, it is the service sector that is most hindering the economic recovery. If the business activity index starts to grow from the current 39.5, it will be a step in the right direction. However, the pound is still growing now, so it simply does not need the help of macroeconomics.

Based on all of the above, it follows that the not quite logical upward movement is likely to continue next week. The latest COT report showed a strengthening of the "bullish" mood. The factors that supposedly led the pound to the current peaks have not gone away. From a technical point of view, the upward trend is also maintained and there are not even minimal hints of a correction. Thus, recently, nothing has changed at all to wait for a change in the trend. We're only worried about one thing. The current growth of the British currency is indeed very similar to the "speculative" growth. For example, the euro currency, which is affected by the same "American factors" is adjusted from time to time. Thus, the pound may continue to grow, but sooner or later there will be a massive closure of profitable long positions, as speculators will want to exit the market. Thus, a rather strong and sharp fall can begin, which is important not to oversleep. Therefore, traders are advised to continue to trade for an increase, as the upward trend persists. What is the point of trading against the trend? However, it is also recommended to remember that the upward trend may end and be prepared for this. At the same time, it is unlikely that this completion will coincide with some fundamental event, such as a speech by the head of the central bank or a meeting of this very central bank.

analytics6028d59e351c4.jpg

Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair:

The pound/dollar pair continues to trade near its 2.5-year highs, regularly updating them. The "swing" on the 4-hour timeframe seems to have stopped and now there is fairly strong growth in the pair. On Friday, traders tried to start a downward correction, however, it ended very quickly, near the Kijun-sen line. Thus, the markets failed to consolidate the pair below this line, therefore, the upward trend should be continued with the targets of 1.3876 and 1.3996. So far, we see the $ 1.40 level as the boundary target point.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Preview of the new week. Will the euro continue its upward march next week? What factors will be most important?

Trading 14 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

analytics6028d0e196fad.jpg

Tomorrow, a new trading week will begin. In this article, we will try to understand what we can expect from the euro/dollar pair. First of all, I would like to focus on the technical picture. Often, "technology" conflicts with "foundation" or "macroeconomics". For example, there is a buy signal and an upward trend, however, the Nonfarm Payrolls come out and the markets turn sharply in the opposite direction. However, this was the case before the pandemic. With the arrival of the coronavirus epidemic, a lot has changed in the world and the foreign exchange market. In particular, macroeconomic statistics are mostly ignored, and meetings of central banks and important speeches of the heads of these banks are infrequent. So it turns out that it is now possible to rely mainly on technology when making trading decisions. What about the technique? As we have already said, on the 24-hour timeframe, the pair's quotes rebounded from the 50.0% Fibonacci level, as well as from the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud of the Senkou Span B line. Thus, in the long term, the trend remains upward and the chances of updating the 2.5-year highs are high. As we have already said, "macroeconomics" has almost no effect on the movement of the pair. Accordingly, only the "foundation" remains. The "foundation" now consists of only two factors (in our opinion). This is "a factor of multi-trillion dollar packages of measures stimulating the American economy" and "a factor of the balance of forces of the American and European economies". Even though the US economy is recovering more quickly than the European one, it is the euro currency that continues to rise in price (if we take a long-term perspective). This is because in the second quarter of 2020, the American economy lost 31%, and the European economy lost 12%. Accordingly, the US economy is catching up with the European one, however, it has not yet caught up. And of course, the first factor of the "stimulus packages for the US economy". Recall that only during 2020, the US Congress approved incentive programs for $ 4 trillion. Also, the Fed buys at least $ 120 billion worth of securities from the market every month. That is, the economy is actively pumped with money. Accordingly, this very money is becoming more and more, respectively, the exchange rate of "this money" (in our case, the dollar) is falling. Some might say that the European Union also has its programs to stimulate the economy, however, they are much less voluminous. For example, the PEPP emergency program is worth 1.85 trillion euros. However, it began to operate last year and is still not completed. This means that out of 1.85 trillion euros, no more than 900 billion have been poured into the economy. The European government does not practice any "helicopter money" packages. There is no distribution of money to the population as compensation and assistance due to the pandemic. The 750 billion euro economic recovery fund, which provides grants and loans to the most affected countries, was approved with heartbreak, but at the current date, it has not even been formed. Thus, much less money is poured into the European economy, so the euro currency has become more scarce in the last year compared to the dollar. Hence its growth.

As for the second factor, the "ratio of economies": here we still have to pay attention to the macroeconomic statistics. Although it does not have any immediate effect on the movement of the pair. Next week, the European Union will publish reports on industrial production, changes in GDP, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as the ZEW index of business sentiment. Of all the indices, we will be most interested in the index of business activity in the service sector, because the acceleration of the EU economic recovery also depends on when this sector begins to recover after the winter lockdown. Christine Lagarde focused on the weak state of the service sector this winter, so we also drew the attention of traders to this report. According to forecasts, the index will remain below the level of 50.0. Thus, we will not yet be able to state the beginning of the restoration of this sphere. Industrial production in December is expected to decline by 0.4%-1.0% every month. Also bad. The GDP report predicts a decline in the fourth quarter by 0.7% in quarterly terms and 5.1% in annual terms. Thus, the statistics from Europe next week may greatly disappoint market participants. Consequently, the US economy will continue to catch up with it, however, it will probably not catch up in the near future. Therefore, traders should simply fix the fact that the European economy continues to stall. No important speeches are scheduled for next week.

Thus, after fairly strong growth of the pair this week, next week we may see some semblance of consolidation. This will not necessarily be a downward correction, however, it will probably be a movement inside the Ichimoku cloud with a continuing upward slope. On the 24-hour timeframe, the pair needs to overcome the Kijun-sen line to count on the continuation of the march to the north. We do not see any reasons why the US dollar may strengthen next week. These may be technical reasons, but the dollar has only recently completed a month-long round of strengthening. Therefore, now a new round of its fall is more likely.

analytics6028d0e41bba0.jpg

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that the pair on the 24-hour timeframe bounced off important supports in the face of the Senkou Span B line and the 50.0% Fibonacci level. Thus, a new round of upward movement is expected. And as long as the price is not fixed below the Senkou Span B line, this option will be the main one. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, it is now recommended to trade for an increase. The pair on Friday began a round of correction but bounced off the Kijun-sen line, which may mean the end of the correction and the resumption of the upward trend. Accordingly, until the price is fixed below the critical line on the 4-hour timeframe, the upward trend continues and we should consider trading for an increase with the targets of 1.2139 and 1.2229 and up to 2.5-year highs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com