U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Drops To Six-Month Low In February

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Reflecting a notable deterioration in expectations, the University of Michigan released a report on Friday showing an unexpected decrease in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of February.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index fell to 76.2 in February after edging down to 79.0 in January. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to inch up to 80.8.

With the unexpected decrease, the consumer sentiment index slid to its lowest level since hitting 74.1 in August of 2020.

The decline by the headline index came as the index of consumer expectations slumped to 69.8 in February from 74.0 in the previous month.

The current economic conditions index showed a much more modest decrease, edging down to 86.2 in February from 86.7 in January.

Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin said the unexpected deterioration in consumer sentiment was concentrated in expectations and among households with incomes below $75,000.

"Households with incomes in the bottom third reported significant setbacks in their current finances, with fewer of these households mentioning recent income gains than anytime since 2014," Curtin said.

He added, "Presumably a new round of stimulus payments will reduce financial hardships among those with the lowest incomes."

On the inflation front, the report said one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.3 percent in February from 3.0 percent in January, while five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.7 percent.


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*U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Drops To 76.2 In February

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Drops To 76.2 In February


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Loonie Little Changed After Canada Wholesale Sales

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Canada wholesale sales for December have been released at 8:30 am ET Friday. The loonie changed little against its major counterparts after the data.

The loonie was trading at 1.2744 against the dollar, 82.46 against the yen, 1.5409 against the euro and 0.9839 against the aussie around 8:35 am ET.


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*Canadian Wholesale Sales Fell 1.3% In December

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Canadian Wholesale Sales Fell 1.3% In December


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Loonie Advances Ahead Of Canada Wholesale Sales

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Canada wholesale sales for December are due out at 8:30 am ET Friday. The loonie climbed against its major counterparts ahead of the data.

The loonie was worth 1.2741 against the dollar, 82.46 against the yen, 1.5413 against the euro and 0.9839 against the aussie at 8:25 am ET.


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February 12, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

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Few weeks ago, another episode of upside movement was expressed above the depicted uptrend line (in blue) towards 1.2250 then 1.2350 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a bearish downside reversal signal.

Shortly after, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around these price levels. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur.

However, the EUR/USD pair has failed to pursue towards lower price levels. Instead, the pair has spiked above the depicted Weekly HIGH around 1.2270 before the current downside rejection was initiated around 1.2350.

Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2250 - 1.2200 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.2170 which corresponded to a previous congestion zone as well as a prominent key-zone.

Persistence below the price level of 1.2170 has turned the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhanced further downside decline was demonstrated towards 1.2080, 1.1990 and 1.1950.

However, Recent Buying Pressure existed around 1.1950, leading to the current quick upside spike above 1.1990 again.

This indicates lack of sufficient downside pressure for the pair. Hence, the current upside movement extended towards 1.2130 before considering to SELL the EURUSD pair again.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for the current upside movement to pursue towards the depicted Resistance Level around 1.2150 - 1.2170 for a valid SELL Entry.

S/L should be placed above 1.2170 while Initial T/P levels to be located around 1.1990 and 1.1950.

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UK GDP Set To Contract More Sharply In Q1: NIESR

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

The UK economy is set to contract more than the previous projection as stringent Covid-19 restrictions are expected to remain elevated until early spring, along with the effects of post-Brexit adjustment, the National Institute of Social and Economic research said Friday.

Gross domestic product is forecast to decline 3.8 percent in the first quarter, instead of 3.4 percent estimated last month.

"Nevertheless, growth will pick up from the second quarter onwards as restrictions ease on the back of a successful vaccination programme," Kemar Whyte, a senior economist at NIESR, said.

Earlier this month, the think tank downwardly revised the UK's growth outlook for 2021 to 3.4 percent from 5.9 percent, citing the resurgence of Covid-19.


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Poland's GDP Shrinks In Q4

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

Poland's economy contracted in the fourth quarter due to the Covid-19 related restrictions, after a strong rebound in output in the third quarter, flash estimate from the statistical office showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product fell 0.7 percent sequentially, in contrast to a 7.9 percent rise in the third quarter. However, this was slower than the expected drop of 1 percent.

On a yearly basis, the economy contracted 2.8 percent, bigger than the 1.8 percent fall a quarter ago. Revised data is due on February 26.


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Weekly chart shows price continues to respect trend line support

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

EURUSD bulls made a comeback this week. After falling as low as 1.1950 last week, this week price remained supported and bulls managed to push price above 1.21. Price tested the upward sloping support trend line last week and this week we saw price move above it again.

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Red line - weekly support

EURUSD bulls are trying to remain in control of the trend. This week's price action supports the bullish scenario for a new higher high but also provides a clear pivot point for traders. Inability to hold price above 1.1950 will have bearish implications for the short-term trend. Breaking below 1.1950 will open the way for a deeper pull back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 1.17. Bulls now need to overcome the horizontal resistance at 1.2180 in order to increase their chances of seeing a new higher high. Weekly trend remains unchanged bullish.

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February 12, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 12 Fév 2021 Commentaire »

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Recently, the EURUSD pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).

That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article.

Recently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 was needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum. This allowed the recent bearish movement to pursue towards 1.2050 where the depicted key-zone is located.

However, Intraday traders were advised to look for short-term BUY Trade around the price zone of 1.2000.

This price zone provided temporary bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD. However, lack of sufficient bullish momentum was recently demonstrated.

Early Exit was suggested for the previous BUY Position while waiting for a possible bearish continuation Pattern.

Bearish persistence below 1.2000 enhanced temporary bearish movement towards 1.1960 where significant bullish rejection was expressed.

That's why, the current bullish spike has pursued towards 1.2130-1.2150 (backside of the broken trend line) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated.

Initial Bearish target would be located around 1.2020

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