Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on January 12? Analysis of Monday. Getting ready for Tuesday

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Monday, January 11, which started last Friday. This movement ended near the lower border of the descending channel. Rebounding from it provoked the beginning of an upward correction. However, the sell signal that was created last Friday was canceled a little earlier after the MACD indicator turned to the upside (circled in red). Thus, those who were in short positions on Friday could end up earning around 80 points in profit. The sell signal from Friday is a classic strong signal that could and should have been worked out. First, the price has returned to the upper line of the descending channel and rebounded off it, which is always a good signal. Secondly, the MACD indicator turned down, having previously corrected, above the zero level. These are the kind of signals that we recommend you to look for and work out. At the moment, you need to wait for the current correction to end and a new sell signal to appear. In order to be able to buy the pound, you need to wait for the price to settle above the downward channel.

Fundamentally, everything remains unchanged for the British pound. The pound has slightly depreciated, but that's it, just a little. Prior to that, it has risen in price by 2100 points in nine months. Thus, so far we are only dealing with a correction, which, however, is supported by building a trend (channel). However, we cannot conclude that the pound fell due to the third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic or the third lockdown in the UK. Unfortunately, markets still do not take into account all this negative information.

Again, no major macroeconomic reports or other events scheduled for Tuesday, January 12, both in the UK and the US. There will only be general news on general topics like the coronavirus in the UK or the political crisis in the US. Thus, we can assume that the foundation will not affect the pair's movement tomorrow. Thus, it is possible to trade on pure technique, which is even good, since only one factor will need to be taken into account.

Possible scenarios for January 12:

1) Buy orders have lost their relevance, since a downward trend and a descending channel have both appeared. Thus, in order to be able to consider long positions, you should wait for the pair to settle above this channel. In this case, you can open long positions while aiming for 1.3677 and 1.3718 (to be revised in the morning). However, this scenario is not expected until Tuesday morning.

2) Sell positions are currently relevant. Novice traders can continue to trade bearish as the downward trend continues. For new shorts on the pair, you need to wait for the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level as well as a new downward reversal. Targets - support levels 1.3481 and 1.3424. Rebounding from the 1.3541 level can also serve as a signal for new shorts on the pair.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on January 12? Analysis of Monday. Getting ready for Tuesday

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement on Monday. It did not "resume", but it "continued" to do so. There was no upward correction, so the MACD indicator did not discharge at all and, accordingly, create a new, strong sell signal. Thus, the euro/dollar pair fell by around 80 points on Monday, but novice traders were deprived of the opportunity to open new positions on MACD signals. However, beginners could open short positions as early as Friday, after the price rebounded from the upper border of the descending channel. In this case, the total profit could be around 60 points. However, such a deal was difficult enough. It was necessary to combine the far from the strongest MACD signal (created below the zero level) and a rebound from the upper border of the channel, which did not exist at that time. We recommend trying to trade using strong signals. That is, trade with the trend, opening trades on corrections. Fewer deals, but better quality. Thus, in the current conditions, you should wait for a correction and expect the downward trend to continue.

Not a single important macroeconomic report from the European Union or the United States on Monday, January 11. However, there was no other news that would directly be reflected on the currency pair's chart. There is a lot of news of a political nature in the United States, interesting, but isn't that important, especially for beginners. It is very difficult to make a correlation between political events and future changes in the currency pair. So far, we can say the following: with a high degree of probability, the current drop in quotes is provoked by the closure of long positions. It works like this: long positions are closed, respectively, the demand for the euro decreases, respectively, and its rate decreases in the foreign exchange market. That is, the reasons are purely technical.

No major releases scheduled in the United States or Europe on Tuesday, January 12. Thus, novice traders will have nothing to pay attention to. Although Friday showed us that all statistics, even the most important reports, are still ignored. The pair continues to trade according to its own rules, so the best advice for novice traders is to trade exclusively by technical signals and, most importantly, by strong technical signals.

Possible scenarios on January 12:

1) Long positions are currently irrelevant, since the upward trend line has been overcome. Therefore, those who wish to buy the EUR/USD pair on such a market should wait for a new upward trend or the downward trend to end (consolidation of quotes above the descending channel). In this case, you can consider long positions with targets around the 1.2271 level.

2) Trading for a fall is more relevant now, since a downward channel has been created. Thus, you are advised to open new short positions with targets at the support levels of 1.2140 and 1.2087 (to be revised in the morning), if a new MACD sell signal is created, which should be discharged to the zero level. Also, a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel can be considered as a sell signal.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indonesia Consumer Confidence Improves In December

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Indonesia's consumer confidence improved in December and moved closer to optimism, survey data from the Bank Indonesia showed on Monday. The consumer confidence index rose to 96.5 from 92.0 in November. Confidence strengthened in all sub-categories of the index.

The latest improvement in consumer confidence was driven by stronger perceptions of current economic conditions and future expectations.

Perceptions of current economic conditions are improving due to better view on the outlook for job availability, income, and timeliness of purchasing durable goods.

Meanwhile, consumer expectations of future economic conditions have increased, particularly in terms of job opportunities.

In December, consumer confidence improved in the 14 cities surveyed.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Belgium Industrial Production Falls In November

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Belgium's industrial production decreased in November after rising in the previous two months, preliminary data from Statistics Belgium showed on Monday. The seasonally adjusted industrial production index dropped 3.5 percent from the previous month, , the agency said. In October, output rose a revised 6.7 percent.

The latest monthly fall was the first since August, data showed.

The calendar adjusted production index decreased 0.4 percent from the same month last year. That followed a revised 5.7 percent increase in the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*Belgium November Industrial Production S.a. -3.5% M/M

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Belgium November Industrial Production S.a. -3.5% M/M


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro Falls As European Shares Drop

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

The euro weakened against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday, amid risk aversion as rising coronavirus cases dampened economic growth prospects.

The COVID-19 infections continue to rise across the globe, with cases exceeding 90 million, data from John Hopkins University showed on Sunday.

The surge puts pressure on the governments to ramp their vaccination campaigns and extend or renew lockdowns to contain the outbreak.

In Washington, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she will table a resolution in the chamber urging the removal of President Trump from the office under the 25th Amendment of the Constitution.

If Pence doesn't invoke the 25th Amendment, Democrats are considering to introduce the Article of Impeachment to oust Trump.

Survey data from Sentix showed that Eurozone investor confidence rose to a positive level in January for the first time since early 2020 as investors became more confident about vaccination strategy, ignoring the current lockdowns.

The investor sentiment index rose to 1.3 in January from -2.7 in December. This was the first positive score since February 2020 and was above economists' forecast of 0.7.

The euro fell to a 5-day low of 126.56 versus the yen and near a 3-week low of 1.2155 versus the greenback, compared to Friday's closing values of 127.04 and 1.2219, respectively. If the euro continues its fall, 123.5 and 1.20 are possibly seen as its next support levels against the yen and the greenback, respectively.

The euro eased to 0.9008 versus the pound, after rising to 0.9037 at 3:15 am ET. On the downside, 0.88 is possibly seen as the next support level.

The euro retreated to 1.5519 against the loonie, 1.6871 against the kiwi and 1.5749 against the aussie, off its early high of 1.5562 and 4-day highs of 1.6956 and 1.5832, respectively. The euro is likely to find support around 1.54 against the loonie, 1.66 against the kiwi and 1.54 against the aussie.

The euro, meanwhile, rose to 1.0836 against the franc, compared to 1.0815 hit late New York Friday. The next possible resistance for the currency is seen around the 1.10 level.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD : l’euro enfonce son support à 1,2180$

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »
L’euro entame une correction face au dollar, le prochain support clef se situe à 1,2040$.

Gold under pressure, bulls try to defend.

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Gold price reached $1,816 earlier today. It was normal as price broke below key support levels last week. However bulls have stepped in and are fighting bears around $1,850 key pivotal level. Trend however in the short-term is neutral. Next couple of sessions will be decisive.

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Gold price is inside the Daily Kumo (cloud). Trend is neutral. Bulls are trying to support price. Price is now at $1,847. In Ichimoku cloud terms trend is neutral as price is inside the Kumo. Bulls need to break above the cloud and recapture $1,865. However the key resistance for the resumption of the up trend is at $1,887 where we find the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Breaking the Kumo upwards and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen would be an important bullish signal. Until then price is vulnerable to the downside. If price breaks below the lower cloud boundary at $1,840 on a daily close, then we expect more downside price action.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD remains under pressure as Dollar bulls take control

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

EURUSD has broken out of the bullish channel and combined with the bearish RSI divergence the signs of a bearish reversal have been confirmed. In our last analysis we noted that we expect prices to move lower towards 1.21-1.2050 at least.

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Green lines - bullish channel broken

Red lines - bearish RSI divergence

EURUSD is moving lower. The 38% Fibonacci retracement is found just above 1.2050. I believe it is very probable to see a pull back towards that area this week. The RSI has still not reached oversold levels. Resistance is at 1.2280. Only a break above this level would cancel my view of lower prices. EURUSD short-term trend is now controlled by bears.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Dollar relies on impressive US economy for 2021

Trading 11 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

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A sharp rise in the yield of US government bonds, as well as hopes for the early adoption of additional measures to support the world's largest economy, allowed the greenback to move away from recent multi-year lows.

The USD index rose more than 0.6% on Monday, climbing above 90.6 points.

"The main source of the dollar's revival was the results of the recent Senate elections. Market participants expect that we will be able to receive significant financial support for the US economy," said strategists at NAB.

Newly elected US President Joe Biden has already pledged to channel trillions of dollars towards the fight against coronavirus. He is due to present his economic program on Thursday, January 14th.

The USD is also strengthened by growing uncertainty about how long the Fed will stick to its ultra-soft policy.

Last Friday, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the US economy has an impressive year ahead as the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations intensifies, as does a potential increase in government spending.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker predicts that the curtailment of the QE program may begin in the second half of 2021.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Thursday and the market will wait to see if he confirms the words of his colleagues.

The main currency pair reached its lowest levels since December 25 amid rising yields on US government bonds and a decrease in demand for risky assets.

The coronavirus epidemic continues on both sides of the Atlantic.

According to the WHO, nearly 88.4 million cases of COVID-19 infection have been registered worldwide.

The focus of investors is also on the political situation in the United States.

Democratic efforts to impeach Donald Trump again gained momentum over the weekend, but it remains to be seen if enough Republicans will support the move shortly before his term ends.

The beginning of this week was marked by the breakout of 1.2200 by the EUR/USD pair and the strengthening of the dollar rate above 90 points. According to experts, if these trends become medium-term, then the potential targets for the correction of the USD index and the main currency pair will be 92 and 1.1900, respectively.

"From the current levels, the EUR/USD pair may drop to 1.2125. The development of the movement to 1.2080 cannot be ruled out. In general, the pair will remain under pressure until it breaks above 1.2280," said UOB experts.

Among the events of the coming week, in addition to the aforementioned speech of the head of the Fed, of particular interest are the data on the US consumer market, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, as well as the minutes from the ECB meeting in December, which will be published on Thursday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com