December 25, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

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After the demonstrated sideway movement took place in November, evident signs of BUYING Pressure has originated around the depicted price zone of 1.1800-1.1840.

Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a significant upside movement after the recent breakout above the depicted price zone (1.1750-1.1780) was achieved.

As mentioned in the previous article, the pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1990 which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1920 which constituted a temporary KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair.

That's why, another episode of upside movement was expressed towards 1.2160 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a false bearish reversal signal.

By the end of Last week, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around 1.2265. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur.

On the other hand, Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2200 - 1.2170 is needed to turn the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhance a quick bearish decline towards 1.2040 and 1.1920.

Trade Recommendations :-

Conservative traders were advised to look for SELL Positions around higher price levels near 1.2250-1.2270. Exit level should be placed above 1.2300.

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December 25, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

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Recently, the EURUSD pair was trapped below the previous key-level (1.2000) until bullish breakout occured to the upside.Further quick bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2150 just as expected after failing to find sufficient bearish pressure at retesting of the backside of the broken channel around 1.1950-1.1970 which corresponds roughly to Fibonacci Level of 0% at 1.2000.

Recently, the pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).That's why, conservative traders were advised to look for low risk trades around lower price levels.

Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 then 1.2000 is needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum to initiate a bearish movement at least towards 1.1860 and 1.1770.

Otherwise, the intermediate-outlook for the pair would remain bullish at least towards 1.2330 where 150% Fibonacci Level is located.

The price zone around 1.2000-1.1975 remains a Demand Zone to offer bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair if any bearish pullback occurs

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December 25, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

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In December, the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) have prevented further bullish movement for the past few weeks.

Bearish target was targeted around 1.3300. However, the pair has failed to pursue towards lower targets.

Instead, a bullish spike was expressed towards 1.3480-1.3500 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel has previously provided temporary bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, another bullish spike has recently been demonstrated towards 1.3600 where the upper limit applied considerable bearish rejection again.

Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating above the key-level of 1.3400.

As expected, bearish reversal was recently initiated around 1.3600. A quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.3200.

Intermediate-term outlook could turn into bearish provided that the pair maintains movement below 1.3400. However, the pair has failed to maintain bearish decline below 1.3200.

Instead, bullish persistence above 1.3400 invalidates the bearish scenario for the short-term. Hence, another bullish movement may be expressed towards 1.3700 (the channel's upper limit) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

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Trading Signal for EUR/USD for December 25 – 28, 2020

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Trading tip for EUR/USD for December 25 – 28

Sell below (EMA 200 and SMA 21) around 1.2170, with take profit at 1.2146 (7/8 of murray) and 1.2085, stop loss above 1.2210.

Buy if the pair rebounds around 1.2146 (7/8 of murray), with take profit at 1.2207 (8/8 of murray) and 1.2268, stop loss below 1.2115.

Sell if the pair breaks through 1.2140, (7/8) with take profit at 1.2085, stop loss above 1.2175.

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The EUR/USD pair is trading within a technical pattern called a symmetric triangle, this pattern could give us a bearish target if it breaks through the bottom of the triangle line with the targets at 6/8 Murray at 1.2085.

If it fails to break out and EUR/USD consolidates and trades above the 21 SMA around 1.2205, we could buy with the target at +1/8 murray, 1.2268.

Support And Resistance Levels For December 25-28

Resistance (1) 1.2216

Resistance (2) 1.2252

Resistance (3) 1.2284

Support (1) 1.2149

Support (2) 1.2118

Support (3) 1.2082

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Trading Signal for GBP/USD for December 25 – 28, 2020

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Trading tip for GBP/USD for December 25 – 28

Sell below 1.3545 (7/8 murray), with take profit at 1.3427 (6/8 and SMA 21), stop loss above 1.3580.

Buy if there is a rebound at 1.3427 (SMA 21), with take profit 1.3549 and 1.3670, stop loss below 1.3390.

Buy around (EMA 200), with take profit 1.3427 and 1.3549, stop below 1.3305

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The GBP/USD pair has left a double top at the high of 1.3620, where it has started a technical correction, to develop the upward momentum. The eagle indicator is supporting this correction on the British pound.

We hope that if it remains below the 1.3549 level, where the 7/8 of murray is located, there could be a correction to the 21day SMA. At this level, there will be another good opportunity to buy.

Support And Resistance Levels For December 25-28

Resistance (1) 1.3588

Resistance (2) 1.3690

Resistance (3) 1.3812

Support (1) 1.3366

Support (2) 1.3244

Support (3) 1.3142

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Credit Suisse: pandemic causes changes in world order

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

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Experts at Credit Suisse, one of the largest Swiss financial conglomerates, suppose that the pandemic has boosted the development of tendencies in the world order that appeared before the outbreak. This mainly concerns the strengthening of the state by means of budgetary expansion and growing control over citizens.

Can we avoid global inflation?

The global economy has entered a deep recession during the pandemic. Almost all countries have been suffering the economic slump. However, analysts at Credit Suisse think that the economic consequences are not that grave as during the previous pandemics. Of course, the coronavirus led to a smaller number of deaths than, for example, plague or Spanish flu. Young and middle-aged people usually carry the disease much easier than old people. Moreover, nowadays, medicine and science have reached high levels. Notably, mass vaccination was launched just several months after the outbreak. That is why the consequence will hardly be so disastrous as analysts initially thought.

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Nevertheless, leaders of most countries of the world have resorted to various restrictive measures in order to protect the population from the virus. The global economic crisis caused the allocation of a huge amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Thus, according to October data from the IMF, states have allocated about $12 trillion to support the economy during the crisis. Many economists believe that such a decision will inevitably lead the world economy to the overall inflation. This view is supported by the fact that the assets of such central banks as the US Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and, the People's Bank of China jumped by as much as 41.5% in annual terms by November of this year, reaching about $27.9 trillion. Thus, the global money supply M2, namely cash and non-cash funds, as well as other monetary aggregates, suddenly increased against the background of the existing crisis.

Nevertheless, Credit Suisse believes that the growth of the money supply and the consumer price index have not been correlating for more than 30 years. Moreover, it is unlikely that this ratio will recover in the near future. If authorities continue increasing monetary expenditures and the degree of transformation of budget expenditures into consumption, the overall inflation will be inevitable. Credit Suisse experts believe that after the pandemic, the world will recover at a slow pace, and inflation will be barely noticeable. Nevertheless, analysts do not deny that the world may face higher inflation due to the demographic changes or political factors.

Intention to limit dependence between countries

International economic relations as well as the role of multilateral institutions began to disappear even before the pandemic. To date, we can see how this trend has only intensified. That is why President of the United States Donald Trump withdrew American troops from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. He also planned to reduce the military presence in Germany and left several international agreements. At the same time, China is becoming the main opponent of the United States. Thus, it is obvious that economic relations between these countries are becoming sourer.

In other words, most countries are trying to obtain independence from each other. This policy makes countries move back their firms from countries with more lucrative conditions. This, in turn, causes changes in supply chains. As part of this policy, China plans to reduce some projects in Latin America and the Middle East, focusing its influence on Southeast Asia.

States strengthening and "subcutaneous control"

States have expanded their powers during the crisis. In this situation, some state leaders began to make decisions, bypassing parliaments. Credit Suisse experts believe that at the end of the crisis, some political leaders will not want to change their policies. This global practice contributes to the creation of a certain type of citizens who will eventually lose the incentive to compete, expecting financial assistance from the state.

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During the pandemic, most countries began using technologies for control and mass collection of personal data. Thus, even companies began possessing a huge amount of personal information about citizens. Many experts suppose that governments may introduce the so-called "subcutaneous control" over their citizens. We are talking about special technologies that will allow you to collect and analyze information about people's health. Such technologies may also be used as an influence on voters during democratic elections.

Rising interest in small towns. Social inequality.

During the pandemic, the remote work has become very popular. With a huge number of people in many countries working at home, small towns will be in much greater demand than before.

In addition, in many countries, there is a significant number of vacancies in the informal sector. Such organizations do not provide people with basic social guarantees. During the pandemic, workers in these spheres were primarily at risk of losing their earnings. Credit Suisse experts believe that the need to overcome social inequality will lead to new redistributive taxes.

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BTC analysis for December 25,.2020 – Potential test of the upper part of the trading range at $24.180

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC is still trading in the trading range.

Watch for buying opportunities with the potential test of $24,180.

Stochastic oscillator got the fresh bull cross, which is good confirmation for the upside continuation.

The long term trend is still bullish....

Key Levels:

Resistance: $24,180

Support level: $22,580

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for December 25 2020 – gtrendline and potential for the rally towards 1.2215

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that there is rising trend line and support on the test.

Stochastic oscillator is is bearish but waiting for the fresh bull cross signal can be good strategy.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,1215

Support level: 1,2175

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for December 25,.2020 – First upside target at the price of $1.884 has been reached. Second target set

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is the rejection of the rising trendline and that buyers can continue with more upside.

Key Lvels:

Resistance: $1,906

Support level: $1,855

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US dollar still unsinkable

Trading 25 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

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Contrary to popular belief about a weaker US dollar, some analysts do not believe in such an outcome. Currency strategists analyzed the existing misconceptions about the upcoming decline in the greenback, noting that it is too early to draw such conclusions.

The reason for pessimism over the American currency was a number of factors. First of all, one of the causes was its fall on the eve of Catholic Christmas. In early trade on Friday, the euro/dollar pair was trading around 1.2199. Then the quotes advanced to the area of 1.2200-1.2201 and consolidated near the level of 1.2200. At the same time, analysts do not rule out that the pair will continue its correction. The nearest support level is 1.2100. In case the quotes consolidate above 1.2200, the level of 1.2500 can be seen as the next target.

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According to experts, in the current conditions and amid a weaker dollar, the European currency stands to gain, which has already added 0.10%. This was largely due to the fact the UK and EU have finally concluded a trade agreement. On Thursday evening, December 24, the parties agreed on Brexit. The agreement will enter into force on January 1, 2021, experts emphasize.

The long-awaited positive changes in the market increased investor risk appetite, provoking pressure on safe-haven assets, primarily on the US currency. The greenback tried its best to hold on at the current levels, but it turned out to be rather difficult. Analysts have debunked four myths, pointing to a further decline in the US dollar, although many opponents see it as inevitable.

Experts believe that the first misconception is that investors' interest in the US dollar may disappear amid growing uncertainty. However, on the eve of the year 2021, the level of anxiety and uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has dropped sharply. This was facilitated by the development of effective vaccines against the coronavirus. As a result, interest in the greenback as a safe-haven asset has declined, but this is a temporary phenomenon. As for the euro/dollar pair, market participants have taken this factor into account, analysts say.

The second misconception about the US dollar's collapse is the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Many experts argued that the dollar would suffer even greater losses if the regulator kept printing money, but that's not true. Undoubtedly, the Fed's steps to expand the balance sheet and ease its monetary policy were much more aggressive than other central banks' actions. However, the American regulator managed to stop and it did not cross the line separating fiscal aid from flooding the market with cash. At the same time, other central banks, in particular the ECB, cannot boast of similar actions yet.

The third misconception about the dollar's fall is the US federal budget deficit that could sink the currency. However, the United States has long had two deficits: the budget deficit and the current account deficit, which are financed by capital imports from abroad. To attract foreign capital, it is necessary to increase the attractiveness of US assets by making the greenback cheaper. This so-called "double deficit" was a powerful argument for supporters of the dollar's collapse during the financial crisis. However, the greenback turned out to be more stable than expected. According to analysts, the US budget deficit continues to grow, but it is unlikely to have a severe impact on the US currency.

Experts believe that the fourth misconception about a weaker US dollar is the end of the US geopolitical dominance, which could result in a collapse in the main world currency. The United States' economic dominance started to fade due to Donald Trump's unstable policies, dragging the US dollar down. However, many experts hold the opposite views, believing that the current situation is ambiguous, and the arrival of new President Joe Biden will help resolve this issue.

Despite a 10% decline in the US dollar index since March 2020, the greenback remains a leader in the global market. Of course, it is trading under pressure from a number of negative factors, but the US dollar is still taking the lead. Many experts are confident that the dollar's downward trend will continue in the coming year, and the greenback will sink by 20% or more. However, their opponents believe that the risks have been greatly exaggerated, otherwise the collapse would have occurred long ago. The US currency is unsinkable, and its difficulties are temporary, experts sum up.

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