Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on December 3? Analysis of Wednesday deals. Getting ready

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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The GBP/USD pair's movement on Wednesday was even more upbeat and unpredictable than the EUR/USD pair. If the euro is now trading in an unconventional and illogical way, but in a trend that is visible, then the pound is just trading randomly, in different directions, without any logic at all. The chart clearly shows the horizontal channel, and the price reached the limits at least 5-6 times. Thus, it was reasonable to assume that when the quotes settled above or below this channel, it would be a strong signal to continue moving in that direction. However, today has shown how bad everything is now for novice traders on the pound/dollar pair. Having gone above the channel by literally 40 points, the price fell and returned to the lower border of this channel at 1.3292. Moreover, it rebounded from it and now we have the right to expect a new round of upward movement to the upper border of the channel. Today novice traders could open long deals, but they should have been closed almost immediately, because the MACD indicator turned to the downside very quickly. Anyway, long positions had to be opened after increasing by 95 points, that is, the upward movement might come to an end.

Everything still revolves around Brexit and negotiations on a trade deal between the UK and the EU when it comes to the British pound. Every day, traders receive information that confirms that the parties are still far from an agreement. Back in September, you could say, "It's alright." But this is December, which means that the transition period is less than a month away, and if there is no deal, then Britain will have economic problems. However, they will also start with the deal. Last week, traders clearly stopped mindlessly buying the pound and took a break. However, the pound did not fall in price during this pause, but was traded mainly sideways. This factor (horizontal movement) is now the main one for the pound/dollar pair and for its traders.

The UK is set to release its Services PMI tomorrow, which is likely to fall below 50.0. Therefore, it is unlikely to support the pound. However, the pound now, like the euro, does not need support from the fundamental or macroeconomic background. The pound may continue to trade sideways, and novice traders may just have to wait for these inconvenient movements to end. At any time, the market might just receive information on the results of these negotiations, so novice traders need to be ready for this. Volatility surges and strong movements are possible. Both London and Brussels agree that the talks should end in the coming days.

Possible scenarios for December 3:

1) Traders have now returned the pair to the horizontal channel of 1.3292-1.3397. So now long deals are irrelevant again. It is necessary to wait for a new upward trend to appear and the 1.3397 level to be overcome in order to count on growth and you can aim for 1.3466 and 1.3517. Although, as today's trading showed, even overcoming one of the channel limits does not guarantee that a new trend will begin.

2) Short deals, from our point of view, are more convenient now, and for a number of reasons. However, since the price is inside a horizontal channel, in order to open short positions, novice traders are advised to wait until the price settles below its lower border of 1.3292 and only after that should they consider the possibility of opening short positions with targets at support levels of 1.3265 and 1.3214.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on December 3? Analysis of Wednesday deals. Getting ready

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair corrected by 40 points on Wednesday morning, which is very small compared to last week's movement, and then it went back to moving up. Naturally, the MACD indicator failed to discharge to the zero level and, as a result, it did not react in time to the resumption of the upward trend. Therefore, it took some time for the buy signal to appear. However, in any case, we did not advise novice traders to enter the market. There is an upward trend, one that is clearly visible, but is extremely difficult to work out, especially for beginners. At this time, there is neither a trend line nor an upward channel, which would provide guidance for the pair's movement. Moreover, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair have already crossed two ascending trend lines over the past few days, after which the upward movement resumed anyway. Therefore, most of the technical signals are now false. It is especially not recommended to sell the pair on a strong upward trend.

Only one report that deserved attention was released on December 2, Wednesday. This is the ADP report on changes in the number of employed Americans in the private sector. Their number increased by 307,000, but forecasts predicted an increase of 410,000, so the US dollar could not have gotten support thanks to this data. It did not get support and not because of this reason either. The problem is that the euro is much more expensive now and it grows without any statistics or news, and so the ADP report could have just simply coincided with this. No global news during the day. We do not consider Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to be an important event, since he has already spoken in Congress several days earlier and we are well acquainted with his speech. He, like European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, is very concerned about the high number of cases of coronavirus, the prospects for the economy and calls on Congress to allocate funds to help unemployed Americans and small businesses. However, the same situation is now in the EU, which is also in lockdown, which means that the consequences of the second wave of the pandemic will be even tougher for it.

The United States and the European Union will publish indexes of business activity in the service sectors for November. Business activity is expected to remain below the 50.0 level in the EU, but on the other hand, it should be higher in the US. Let us remind you that any value of this indicator below 50 is considered negative. However, in the current environment, these reports are unlikely to affect the course of trading. This also applies to the report on retail sales in the EU for October and the report on claims for unemployment benefits in the United States.

Possible scenarios for December 3:

1) Long positions remain relevant at the moment, but only because the upward trend is still present, which is clearly visible. However, it is extremely difficult to work out this trend now, since there is neither a trend line nor a channel to support it. Formally, you need to wait for a new round of correction and the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level, and then look for new buy signals.

2) Trading down is not recommended at this time. Although the price crossed the ascending trend lines twice, the upward movement resumed and is still present. So far there is no reason to sell the euro, although the current levels may seem very attractive for selling.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Dip 0.7 Million Barrels In Week Ended 11/27

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Dip 0.7 Million Barrels In Week Ended 11/27


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Mixed After ADP Private Sector Employment Data

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar showed mixed performance against its major counterparts in the European session on Wednesday, after a data showed that U.S. private sector employment rose less than expected in November.

Data from payroll processor ADP showed that private sector employment rose by 307,000 jobs in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 404,000 jobs in October.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 410,000 jobs compared to the addition of 365,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Early in the session, the currency was underpinned by concerns over a no-deal Brexit following remarks from EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier that there may be a no-deal outcome.

As British and European Union officials race to strike a post-Brexit trade deal before the start of next week, Barnier told EU ambassadors that a deal hangs in the balance and a no-deal Brexit cannot be ruled out.

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden told the New York Times he'd leave the phase-one trade deal with China in place while he conducts a full review of the policy toward China in consultation with traditional allies in Asia and Europe.

The greenback dropped in the Asian session as renewed prospects of additional US fiscal stimulus and continued optimism over potential coronavirus vaccines lifted risk sentiment.

The greenback appreciated to 1.2040 against the euro, after touching 1.2088, which was its lowest level since April 2018. On the upside, 1.18 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

Data from Destatis showed that German retail sales grew more than expected in October.

Retail sales increased 2.6 percent on a monthly basis, reversing a 1.9 percent drop in September. Sales were expected to climb only 1.2 percent.

The U.S. currency strengthened to 1.3304 against the pound, from a low of 1.3441 set at 2:45 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding resistance around the 1.30 region.

The greenback approached an 8-day high of 104.75 against the yen, reversing from a low of 104.23 hit at 7:00 pm ET. Next key resistance for the greenback is seen around the 108.00 area.

Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's consumer confidence improved marginally to an 11-month high in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the consumer confidence index increased to 33.7 in November from 33.6 in October.

In contrast, the greenback dipped to 0.8959 against the franc, a level not seen since January 2015. The greenback may find support around the 0.87 level.

Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Switzerland's consumer prices continued to decline in November.

The consumer price index decreased 0.7 percent year-on-year in November, following a 0.6 percent fall in October. Economists had expected a 0.5 percent fall.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the CARES Act before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC at 10:00 am ET.

The Federal Reserve's Beige book report will be released in the New York session.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Misses Estimates In November

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Payroll processor ADP released a report on Wednesday showing private sector employment in the U.S. increased by less than expected in the month of November.

ADP said private sector employment rose by 307,000 jobs in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 404,000 jobs in October.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 410,000 jobs compared to the addition of 365,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

"While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

The report said employment in the service-providing sector climbed by 276,000 jobs, reflecting notable job growth in the leisure/hospitality and education/health service industries.

Employment in the goods-producing sector also edged up by 31,000 jobs amid modest increases in construction and manufacturing jobs.

ADP also revealed employment at mid-sized businesses increased by 139,000 jobs, while small businesses at 110,000 jobs and employment at large businesses rose by 58,000 jobs.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched employment report, which includes both public and private sector jobs.

Economists expect employment to increase by 500,000 jobs in November after jumping by 638,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 6.8 percent from 6.9 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF : le dollar US continue de chuter face au franc suisse

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »
Le dollar américain poursuit sa dégringolade et la baisse risque de s’accentuer

*Canadian Labor Productivity Tumbles 10.3% In Q3

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Labor Productivity Tumbles 10.3% In Q3


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Private Sector Employment Rises Less Than Expected In November

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

Payroll processor ADP released a report on Wednesday showing private sector employment in the U.S. increased by less than expected in the month of November.

ADP said private sector employment rose by 307,000 jobs in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 404,000 jobs in October.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 410,000 jobs compared to the addition of 365,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

"While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Little Changed After ADP Private Payrolls Data

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

At 8:15 am ET Wednesday, U.S. ADP private sector employment data for November has been released. The greenback changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The greenback was trading at 1.2061 against the euro, 1.3332 against the pound, 104.58 against the yen and 0.8969 against the franc around 8:20 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Private Sector Employment Increases By 307,000 Jobs In November

Trading 02 Déc 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Private Sector Employment Increases By 307,000 Jobs In November


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com