Eurozone Consumer Confidence At 6-month Low

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Eurozone's consumer confidence weakened for a second consecutive month in November to reach its lowest level in six months as countries like Germany and France returned to lockdown amid a resurgence in the coronavirus pandemic.

The flash consumer confidence index fell to -17.6 from -15.5 in October, preliminary data from the European Commission showed on Friday. Economists had forecast a score of -17.7. The latest reading was the weakest since May, when it was -18.8. The corresponding indicator for the EU also dropped to a six-month low of -18.7 from -16.5 in October. The survey was conducted from November 1 to 19. The final readings are set to be published along with the monthly economic sentiment survey results on November 27.


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*Eurozone Nov Consumer Confidence Flash -17.6 Vs. -15.5 In Oct, Consensus -17.7

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Eurozone Nov Consumer Confidence Flash -17.6 Vs. -15.5 In Oct, Consensus -17.7


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Belgium Consumer Confidence Improves Slightly

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Belgium's consumer confidence improved slightly in November after weakening in the previous month as initial impact of the tighter lockdown measures waned, survey data from the National Bank of Belgium showed on Friday. The consumer confidence index fell to -15 from -17 in October. All components of the indicator have improved, even if only modestly, with the exception of prospects regarding consumers' financial situation, which have remained stable. Households' perception of the general economic outlook turned more optimistic in November and the indicator climbed to -17, its pre-pandemic level. Consumers continued to be less fearful of rising unemployment over the next twelve months, but the level of worry remained high. The corresponding indicator eased slightly to 58 from 59. Their view on the personal finances outlook remained unchanged and the indicator was steady at 1. A higher proportion were inclined to save more and the indicator rose to 13 from 10.

The historically high level of the indicator suggest a persistence of the effects of the health crisis, the survey said.


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Loonie Little Changed After Canada Retail Sales

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Following the release of Canada retail sales for September at 8:30 am ET Friday, the loonie changed little against its major counterparts.

The loonie was trading at 1.5480 against the euro, 79.57 against the yen, 0.9538 against the aussie and 1.3052 against the greenback around 8:32 am ET.


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*Canadian Retail Sales Jump 1.1% In September

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Retail Sales Jump 1.1% In September


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Loonie Mixed Ahead Of Canada Retail Sales

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Canada retail sales for September are due from Statistics Canada at 8:30 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the loonie traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the loonie dropped against the aussie, it was steady against the rest of major rivals.

The loonie was worth 1.5484 against the euro, 79.55 against the yen, 0.9538 against the aussie and 1.3052 against the greenback at 8:25 am ET.


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Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

EURUSD revisited the 1.1890 high that was tested twice this week and is now pulling back down. We need to remember that from 1.19 area last week price made a sharp reversal lower towards 1.1750 and another reversal in October towards 1.16. So the 1.19 level is very important resistance confirmed several times.

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On a weekly basis trend remains bullish. Key support to look out for is at 1.1760 and as long as price is above it, we could see another leg higher towards 1.20-1.21. If support fails to hold, we should be prepared for a pull back towards the kijun-sen(yellow line indicator) now at 1.14.

Short-term support as we explained in previous posts is at 1.18. A break below 1.18 would be a sign of weakness. Until then, bulls remain in control of the trend.

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NZDUSD provides bearish divergence warning

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

NZDUSD is making a new higher high today at 0.6947 but the RSI does not follow. The RSI is still lower than the previous high and this provides us for the second bearish divergence. Price has broken below the bullish channel and is now back testing the channel from below.

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Red rectangles - support levels

Red line - bearish divergence

NZDUSD tested the first red rectangle support area at 0.6875 and bounced off of it. Support was respected. As we explained in our last post, breaking below this support level will be the first sell signal. We expect one to come as the bearish divergence suggests. Until then bears need to be cautious as price continues to make higher highs. We do not prefer to be bullish in the short-term. We prefer to be bearish and look to sell specially if support fails to hold. First target is the 0.68 level.

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WTO: Global Trade Rebounds In Q3 As Lockdowns Eased

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The World Trade Organization said the global merchandise trade rebounded strongly in the third quarter after plunging amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Goods Trade Barometer, a real-time gauge of trends in global trade, rose to 100.7 in the third quarter from 84.5 registered last August.

The index reading greater than 100 suggests above-trend growth, while those below 100 indicate below-trend growth.

The indicator signaled a strong rebound in trade in the third quarter as lockdowns were eased, but growth is likely to slow in the fourth quarter as pent-up demand is exhausted and inventory restocking is completed.

The WTO observed that renewed lockdowns in Europe and North America could lead to another round of business closures and financial distress.

According to WTO forecast, world merchandise trade volume will fall 9.2 percent this year. This outcome would require a sharp rebound in the third quarter, following the 17.2 percent annual decline registered in the second quarter.


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Gold continues to respect key support at $1,850

Trading 20 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Gold price is bouncing again off the key support of $1,850. Price made a low this week at $1,852 and is now trading at $1,872. Support has held once again. No sell signal given. Bulls need to break above $1,900-$1,906 resistance in order to challenge $1,950.

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Red rectangles- resistance levels

Green rectangle- key support

Gold price continues to trade sideways.For a bearish signal price must break below the green rectangle and stay below it. First obstacle for bulls is at $1,906. Breaking above it will push price towards the next major resistance at $1,950. We prefer to be neutral at current levels or open small long positions near support levels and small short positions near resistance levels.

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