Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 13? Getting ready for Friday session

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

analytics5fadb4d55e8f4.jpg

Instead of bringing back the downward movement, the EUR/USD pair began a new round of corrective movement on Thursday, November 12. However, the MACD indicator did not turn down during the day, so a sell signal was not generated. And so, according to our recommendations, novice traders should not have opened short positions today. At the same time, a descending trend line appeared today. On the one hand, this is good. It makes it possible to track another possible buy or sell signal. By retreating or going beyond the trend line. On the other hand, the price has not rebounded and this line was not overcome, the price is simply trading near this line. Therefore, the situation is now of the following kind. The downward trend is still preserved and the price rebounding from the trend line will enable us to open short positions while aiming for the lower line of the horizontal channel at $1.17-1.19. Overcoming the trend line will signal a change in the short-term trend to an upward one, and then we can expect an upward movement to the upper line of the horizontal channel at 1.1903. In general, the euro/dollar pair continues to trade in a horizontal channel, so there is still no long-term trend.

Novice traders should have turned their attention to the US inflation report. The consumer price index began to slow down in America once again, which is not a positive factor for the US economy and the dollar. Inflation decelerated in annual terms from 1.4% to 1.2%. Core inflation slowed down from 1.7% to 1.6%. In addition, inflation in Germany remained in the negative territory. But German inflation has a much smaller impact on the euro/dollar pair. Thus, the fact that the US dollar depreciates most of the day is quite reasonable. Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell (president of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, respectively) will also deliver speeches and this can also affect the pair's movement on the remainder of Thursday and Friday night.

The EU is slated to publish its third quarter Gross Domestic Product on Friday. According to forecasts, the indicator will be +12.7% q/q, however, market participants are already prepared for this figure, since they were just like that a month ago (first estimate). Therefore, only a serious deviation from the forecast can provoke a market reaction. No other important news is scheduled for the final trading day of the week. But we continue to recommend you to follow political news from the United States, since Donald Trump might mention something interesting.

Possible scenarios for November 13:

1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair remain irrelevant at this time. However, if the price settles above the downward trend line, then novice traders are advised to open long positions with targets at 1.1872 and 1.1903. It may be better to wait until morning.

2) Trading for a fall is still more relevant at this time, as the downward trend continues. Thus, novice traders are advised to wait now for a rebound from the trend line and a downward reversal of the MACD indicator. Then we will recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.1738 and 1.1696. Similar to long deals, it may be best to wait until morning.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 13? Getting ready for Friday session

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

analytics5fadb4d55e8f4.jpg

Instead of bringing back the downward movement, the EUR/USD pair began a new round of corrective movement on Thursday, November 12. However, the MACD indicator did not turn down during the day, so a sell signal was not generated. And so, according to our recommendations, novice traders should not have opened short positions today. At the same time, a descending trend line appeared today. On the one hand, this is good. It makes it possible to track another possible buy or sell signal. By retreating or going beyond the trend line. On the other hand, the price has not rebounded and this line was not overcome, the price is simply trading near this line. Therefore, the situation is now of the following kind. The downward trend is still preserved and the price rebounding from the trend line will enable us to open short positions while aiming for the lower line of the horizontal channel at $1.17-1.19. Overcoming the trend line will signal a change in the short-term trend to an upward one, and then we can expect an upward movement to the upper line of the horizontal channel at 1.1903. In general, the euro/dollar pair continues to trade in a horizontal channel, so there is still no long-term trend.

Novice traders should have turned their attention to the US inflation report. The consumer price index began to slow down in America once again, which is not a positive factor for the US economy and the dollar. Inflation decelerated in annual terms from 1.4% to 1.2%. Core inflation slowed down from 1.7% to 1.6%. In addition, inflation in Germany remained in the negative territory. But German inflation has a much smaller impact on the euro/dollar pair. Thus, the fact that the US dollar depreciates most of the day is quite reasonable. Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell (president of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, respectively) will also deliver speeches and this can also affect the pair's movement on the remainder of Thursday and Friday night.

The EU is slated to publish its third quarter Gross Domestic Product on Friday. According to forecasts, the indicator will be +12.7% q/q, however, market participants are already prepared for this figure, since they were just like that a month ago (first estimate). Therefore, only a serious deviation from the forecast can provoke a market reaction. No other important news is scheduled for the final trading day of the week. But we continue to recommend you to follow political news from the United States, since Donald Trump might mention something interesting.

Possible scenarios for November 13:

1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair remain irrelevant at this time. However, if the price settles above the downward trend line, then novice traders are advised to open long positions with targets at 1.1872 and 1.1903. It may be better to wait until morning.

2) Trading for a fall is still more relevant at this time, as the downward trend continues. Thus, novice traders are advised to wait now for a rebound from the trend line and a downward reversal of the MACD indicator. Then we will recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.1738 and 1.1696. Similar to long deals, it may be best to wait until morning.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UK GDP To Fall 12% In November On Second Lockdown – NIESR

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The UK economy is set to shrink 12 percent in November due to the second lockdown to tackle the resurgence in the coronavirus pandemic, but rebound strongly next month, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research said Thursday.

The think tank said in its monthly report that the outlook is for a 2.2 percent decline in growth in the fourth quarter. Growth is seen at 0.3 percent in October.

That said, levels of activity are expected to return to October levels in December. As such a rapid rebound is expected following the end of the second lockdown, NIESR still forecast a decline of 11.3 percent this year.

NIESR pointed out the downside risks if the lockdown is extended or does not succeed in bringing down infection rates. Upside risks are expected to come from a smaller than anticipated fall in November as households switch to online consumption ahead of the holiday season, the think tank said.

Earlier on Thursday, ONS reported that the UK economy grew 15.5 percent in the third quarter as activity levels recovered from the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent control measures.

"Growth in the fourth quarter will be much slower than in the third quarter and is likely to turn negative, due to weaker growth in October and a second lockdown from November," NIESR Senior Economist Kemar Whyte said.

"Our expectations for the fourth quarter and beyond will depend on the stringency and duration of ongoing lockdowns; local and national."


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 4.3 Million Barrels In Week Ended 11/6

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 4.3 Million Barrels In Week Ended 11/6


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

India Inflation, Industrial Production Rise Unexpectedly

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

India's inflation accelerated in October and industrial production grew in September, both defying expectations, official data showed on Thursday.

The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 7.61 percent year-on-year after a 7.27 percent increase in September. Economists had forecast 7.30 percent inflation.

The consumer food price index climbed 11.07 percent year-on-year after a 10.68 percent rise in the previous month.

Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 1.28 percent and the CFPI climbed 2.48 percent in October.

Separate government data showed that industrial production increased 0.2 percent year-on-year in September, while economists were looking for a 2.0 percent decline.

Manufacturing shrunk 0.6 percent, while mining production rose 1.4 percent. Electricity output grew 4.9 percent.

In the April to September period, industrial production decreased 21.1 percent from a year ago.

Earlier on Thursday, the finance minister announced a third stimulus for the Indian economy that is severely hurt by the coronavirus pandemic.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Unchanged In October

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Reflecting many offsetting increases and decreases, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing U.S. consumer prices came in flat in the month of October.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in October after rising by 0.2 percent in September. Economists had expected another 0.2 percent uptick.

Food prices rose by 0.2 percent in October after coming in flat in September, reflecting a 0.3 percent increase in prices for food away from home and a 0.1 percent uptick in prices for food at home.

The report said energy prices inched up by 0.1 percent in October following a 0.8 percent advance in September, as a 1.2 percent jump in prices for electricity was partly offset by a 0.5 percent drop in gas prices.

Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices were still flat in October after edging up by 0.2 percent in September. Core prices were also expected to inch up by another 0.2 percent.

The Labor Department said a 0.1 percent uptick in prices for shelter was offset by a 0.4 percent decrease in prices for medical care.

Prices for airline fares, recreation, and new vehicles were among those to rise, while prices for motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and household furnishings and operations declined.

Compared to the same month a year ago, consumer prices in October were up by 1.2 percent, reflecting a deceleration from the 1.4 percent growth seen in September.

The annual rate of growth in core consumer prices also slowed to 1.6 percent in October from 1.7 percent in the previous month.

"With the explosion in virus numbers putting downward pressure on demand in the short-term, we expect inflation to remain subdued for a while yet," said Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

On Friday, the Labor Department is schedule to release a separate report on producer price inflation in the month of October.

Both producer prices and core producer prices are expected to edge up by 0.2 percent in October after rising by 0.4 percent in September.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Mixed After U.S. Consumer Inflation

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar came in mixed against its major counterparts in the European session on Thursday, after a report showed that U.S. consumer inflation was flat in October.

Data from the Labor Department showed that U.S. consumer price index was unchanged in October after rising by 0.2 percent in September. Economists had expected another 0.2 percent uptick.

Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices were still flat in October after edging up by 0.2 percent in September. Core prices were also expected to inch up by another 0.2 percent.

Separate data showed that U.S. jobless claims dropped more than expected in the week ended November 7.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 709,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the previous week's revised level of 757,000.

U.S. infections hit a record, with New York introducing new restrictions to prevent a second wave wave of Covid-19. Bars, restaurants and gyms will close by 10 pm ET and the number of people who could attend private parties will be limited to a maximum of 10.

The currency showed mixed trading against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it rose against the pound, it fell against the euro and the yen. Versus the franc, it was steady.

The greenback climbed to a 3-day high of 1.3132 against the pound, compared to yesterday's closing value of 1.3218. Next immediate resistance for the greenback is likely seen around the 1.28 level.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that gross domestic product grew 15.5 percent sequentially in the third quarter.

Economists had forecast an expansion of 15.8 percent after decreasing 19.8 percent in the second quarter and 2.5 percent in the first quarter.

The greenback rebounded to 0.9165 against the franc, from a session's low of 0.9133 seen at 5:00 am ET. If the currency rallies further, 0.94 is seen as its next resistance level. The greenback dropped to 1.1833 against the euro and was steady thereafter. The pair was worth 1.1777 when it closed deals on Wednesday.

Final data from Destatis showed that German consumer prices decreased in October, as initially estimated.

The consumer prices fell 0.2 percent year-on-year in October, same as seen in September, as initially estimated.

The greenback was lower against the yen, with the pair trading at 105.21. The pair had closed Wednesday's deals at 105.43. The greenback is likely to challenge support around the 101.00 level.

Data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's tertiary activity rose for the fourth month in a row in September.

The tertiary activity index rose 1.8 percent month-on-month in September, following a 0.8 percent increase in August.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected To 709,000

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a bigger than expected decrease in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended November 7th.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 709,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the previous week's revised level of 757,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 735,000 from the 751,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the bigger than expected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since before lockdowns were imposed in mid-March.

The report said the less volatile four-week moving average also slid to 755,250, a decrease of 33,250 from the previous week's revised average of 788,500.

Continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, also tumbled by 436,000 to 6.786 million in the week ended October 31st.

The four-week moving average of continuing claims slumped to 7,575,750, a decrease of 653,000 from the previous week's revised average of 8,228,750.

"Continuing claims for regular benefits extended their decline, but that positive trend continues to be partly offset by the rise in the number of unemployed individuals who have exhausted those benefits," said Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.

Last Friday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of October.

The report said non-farm payroll employment jumped by 638,000 jobs in October after surging up by a revised 672,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 600,000 jobs compared to the addition of 661,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent in October from 7.9 percent in September. The unemployment rate was expected to slip to 7.7 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*UK NIESR: Expects Rapid Rebound Following End Of Second Lockdown, Forecast For 2020 Stand At -11.3%

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

UK NIESR: Expects Rapid Rebound Following End Of Second Lockdown, Forecast For 2020 Stand At -11.3%


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*UK NIESR: Second Lockdown Expected To Bring Monthly Fall Of About 12% In November

Trading 12 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

UK NIESR: Second Lockdown Expected To Bring Monthly Fall Of About 12% In November


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com