Belgium Industrial Production Rises

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Belgium's industrial production rose in September from the previous month, preliminary data from Statistics Belgium showed on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted industrial production index rose 0.5 percent from August, the data showed.

However, production decreased from the same month last year in September. Industrial production fell a calendar adjusted 4.6 percent compared to a year ago.

"So compared to last year, September also registers a decrease of the economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic," the statistical office said. Survey data from the central bank last month showed that confidence firmed up in the manufacturing sector in October and production capacity utilization rate increased from July.


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*U.S. Job Openings Inch Up To 6.436 Million In September

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Job Openings Inch Up To 6.436 Million In September


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Sweden Household Consumption Grows

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Sweden's household consumption grew in September amid increased spending on food and beverages, figures from Statistics Sweden showed on Tuesday.

Household consumption rose 0.6 percent from August, but decreased 3.8 percent from the same month last year.

In the three months to September, household consumption shrunk 3.7 percent from a year ago.

The largest weighted positive contribution came from the retail trade, mostly food and beverages?sector, which increased by 3.4 percent year-on-year, the agency said.

The biggest negative contribution came from restaurants, cafes, hotels and other accommodation services, where spending decreased by 17.5 percent from a year ago.


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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 11. Analysis of Tuesday trades. Getting ready

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

EUR/USD hourly chart

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair tried to resume the downtrend, but the movement was too hesitant and too rapid. Let's analyze the situation in more detail so that novice traders can draw the right conclusion. First, this morning we mentioned that the MACD indicator was expected to reach the zero level due to an upward correction. Unfortunately, the correction turned out to be extremely weak and it was not enough for the indicator to approach the zero level. As a result, a new sell signal was formed with a little delay and the direction was not quite clear. The downward movement stopped very quickly and a new round of correction began. Thus, the price bounced back from the upper line of the sideways channel of $1.17-1.19. So, we still expect a downward movement to the lower boundary of this channel. However, once again we would like to emphasize that there is no trendline or a trend channel being formed at the moment. Thus, we can only track sell signals from the MACD indicator. However, even these signals are not strong and accurate enough right now. So, beginners should make their own decision on whether to trade the EUR/USD pair.

During the second trading day of the week, no macroeconomic reports or important statements were published in the EU or the US. After the US dollar's rally on Monday, traders refrained from buying it (i.e. selling the EUR/ USD pair) on Tuesday. During the day, investors continued to evaluate the results of the US presidential election. Although the election race has come to an end, there is still a lot of uncertainty left for the US and its economy.

On Wednesday, not a single important release is scheduled in the European Union or the US. However, in the EU, President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde will give a speech on Wednesday. If Christine Lagarde makes some important statements, markets will immediately react to them. Yet, we do not think that the head of the ECB will reveal any unexpected or important information this time. Thus, tomorrow, traders can keep tracking the general fundamental background from the EU and the US or trade exclusively on technical factors.

Possible scenarios for November 11

1) Buying the EUR/USD is no longer relevant as the price has failed to break through the level of 1.1903. After a rebound from this level, the price dropped again to the 1.1696 mark. Thus, you can buy the euro/dollar pair only when the downtrend is fully completed, which is unlikely to happen in the near future, or after the price breaks through the level of 1.1903.

2) Selling the pair looks a better choice at this time, as the pair has pulled back from the level of 1.1903. So, now novice traders should wait for a short-term upward correction to complete. Then, there should be a new sell signal from the MACD indicator, which can be used to test the targets at 1.1765 and 1.1717. Unfortunately, there is still no downtrend line or channel on the chart what makes it more difficult to trade within the assumed downtrend.

On the chart

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trendlines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Pound Climbs On Vaccine Optimism

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The pound spiked up against its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, as hopes for a breakthrough in the coronavirus vaccine underpinned sentiment.

Drugmaker Pfizer reported that its Covid-19 vaccine was found to be over 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 in a large-scale clinical trial.

The vaccine hopes revived investor appetite and helped offset concerns over rising coronavirus cases in the US and Europe.

Brexit trade talks remained on focus after Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered a crushing defeat in the House of Lords over his plans to breach international law on Brexit.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK unemployment rate increased in the third quarter and redundancies reached a record high.

The ILO jobless rate rose by 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter to 4.8 percent in three months to September, as economists' expected.

The employment rate dropped by 0.6 percent from the preceding quarter to 75.3 percent.

The pound appreciated to 139.74 against the yen, its strongest level since September 8. The pound is seen locating resistance around the 141.00 level.

Survey data from the Cabinet Office showed that a measure of the public assessment of the Japanese economy increased further in October.

The current conditions index of the Economy Watchers' Survey, which measures the current situation of the economy, increased to 54.5 in October from 49.3 in September. Economists had forecast a score of 57.6.

The pound rallied to more than a 2-month high of 1.3272 against the greenback from Monday's closing value of 1.3163. Next immediate resistance for the pound is likely seen around the 1.34 level.

The U.K. currency firmed to more than a 2-month high of 1.2160 against the franc, up from yesterday's closing quote of 1.2011. Further rally in the pound is likely to test resistance around the 1.24 region.

The pound rose to 0.8884 against the euro, to its highest level in more than two months. If the pound rises further, 0.86 is seen as its next resistance level.

Survey data from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed that German economic confidence deteriorated sharply to a seven-month low in November as financial experts were concerned about the economic impact of the second wave of Covid-19.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment plummeted more-than-expected 17.1 to 39.0 points in November from 56.1 in October. The score was forecast to fall to 41.7. This was the lowest since last April.


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EUR / USD: Euro losses ground against the background of weak economic data and falling dollar

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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Global stock indexes started the week on a positive note. Market participants' optimism was driven by news of progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

Against this background, the USD index reached its lowest level since the beginning of September – around 92.1 points.

On Tuesday, the USD exchange rate somewhat stabilized. The day before, Pfizer announced the successful third phase of clinical trials of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine. However, the company has not yet confirmed whether the drug is safe, or how long it works.

Meanwhile, the result of the recent US presidential election is still under extreme question. The outgoing US President Donald Trump refuses to admit defeat. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that Donald Trump has the legal right to request a recount of votes, as well as to consider violations of voting procedures, if any, in court.

Experts are convinced that the USD will continue to fall. They proceed from the fact that geopolitical risks after the US elections will decrease, and the next package of assistance to the American economy will be less than previously expected, which will require the Fed to further expand the quantitative easing program.

"Perhaps the greatest clarity after the election concerns global trade. US foreign policy will enter a more predictable phase without the use of tariff threats. We believe that a fall in the dollar, in this case, is very likely, " said strategists at Citi Private Bank.

According to UBS Global Wealth Management, "The fact that Democrats are unlikely to gain control of the Senate means reducing the size of the stimulus package that may be passed in the future. This will force the Fed to act more decisively to support the economy."

However, there are those who doubt the further weakening of the greenback.

Experts at Saxo Bank said, "USD bearish traders expect everything to go smoothly: the Fed will gasp and good Uncle Joe will avoid any trade confrontation. However, things may not be so simple."

"The hopes that Biden will lift most of the tariffs imposed by Trump, as well as forge more friendly relations with China and other trading partners, may not be justified. Meanwhile, additional measures on the part of the Fed, which has already approached the zero limit of interest rates, will have little effect, unless the regulator comes up with something fundamentally new. Another necessary detail of the picture is a calm transfer of power, that is, the peaceful departure of Trump from the White House," they added.

The main currency pair updated two-month highs, rising above 1.1900, but then fell back sharply.

The euro is losing ground for the second session in a row on the back of the dollar's recovery and disappointing statistics from Germany.

According to ZEW data, the index of economic sentiment in Germany in November fell to 39 points from 56.1 points recorded in the previous month.

The pressure on the single currency is exerted by investors' fears about the fate of the eurozone economy in the context of a worsening epidemiological situation and increased social distancing measures in the region.

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for European GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 from an increase of 9.1% to a fall of 8.7%.

"For the EUR / USD pair to rise further, there need to be signs that the EU is capable of more in terms of fiscal measures. Negotiations are underway there on the budget and the use of the restoration fund. In the longer term, we need a way out of the second wave of COVID-19, as well as substantial evidence of the implementation of the scenario of negative real rates in the US, which the market so confidently took into account in prices before the elections," Saxo Bank said.

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French Jobless Rate At 2-Year High

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The French jobless rate rose to a two-year high in the third quarter as more people actively started looking for a job after the easing of coronavirus containment measures, data from the statistical office Insee showed Tuesday.

The unemployment rate rose to 9 percent in the third quarter from 7.1 percent in the second quarter. This was the highest since the third quarter of 2018 and was 0.9 points higher than its pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The number of ILO unemployed people increased 628,000 to 2.7 million.

The jobless rate in metropolitan France advanced to 8.8 percent in the third quarter from 7 percent a quarter ago.

The increase in unemployment highlights a clear deterioration in the labor market, the Insee said.

The unemployment rate among youth aged between 15 and 24 advanced to 21.8 percent in the third quarter from 20.9 percent in the preceding period.

On average the employment rate for 15-64 year group increased by 0.7 points to 65.1 percent, after a sharp decline of -1.6 points in the second quarter.


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November 10, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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Until October 13, temporary breakout above 1.1750 was demonstrated within the depicted ascending channel. This indicated high probability of bullish continuation towards 1.1880. However, downside pressure pushed the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1700 where significant BUYING Pressure Existed. This was followed by another quick upside movement towards 1.1880-1.1900.

The price zone around 1.1880-1.1900 constituted a KEY Price-Zone as it corresponded to the backside of the depicted broken ascending channel where significant bearish pressure and a reversal Head & Shoulders pattern were demonstrated.

Recently, Two opportunities for SELL Entries were offered upon the recent upside movement towards 1.1880-1.1900. All target levels were achieved. EXIT LEVEL was reached around 1.1720.

Early signs of bullish reversal were demonstrated around the current price levels of 1.1600.

The EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a significant BUYING Pattern after the recent upside breakout above the depicted price zone (1.1750-1.1780) was achieved.

As mentioned in the previous article, the pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1920 which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1800.

Trade Recommendations :-

Currently, the price zone around 1.1800 stands as a significant SUPPORT-Zone to be watched during the current downside pullback for a valid BUY Position. Exit level should be placed below 1.1740.

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November 10, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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In July, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain bearish momentum strong enough to move below 1.1200 (consolidation range lower zone).

Instead, bullish breakout was achieved above 1.1380-1.1400.This has lead to a quick bullish spike directly towards 1.1750 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure as well.

Bullish persistence above 1.1700 - 1.1760 favored further bullish advancement towards 1.1975 - 1.2000 ( the upper limit of the technical channel ) which constituted a Solid SUPPLY-Zone offering bearish pressure.

Moreover, Intraday traders should have noticed the recent bearish closure below 1.1700. This indicates bearish domination on the short-term.

However, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum below 1.1625 (38% Fibonacci Level). Instead, another bullish breakout was being demonstrated towards 1.1870 which corresponds to 76% Fibonacci Level.

As mentioned in previous articles, the price zone of 1.1870-1.1900 stood as a solid SUPPLY Zone corresponding to the backside of the broken channel.

Moreover, the recent bearish H4 candlestick closure below 1.1770 was mentioned in previous articles to indicate a valid short-term SELL Signal. All bearish targets were already reached at 1.1700 and 1.1630 where the current bullish recovery was initiated.

The current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1870-1.1900 should also be considered for signs of bearish rejection and another valid SELL Entry. S/L should be placed just above 1.1950.

Bearish closure below 1.1777 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) indicates further bearish decline at least towards 1.1630

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November 10, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 10 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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The price zone of 1.3100-1.3150 (the depicted channel upper limit) constituted an Intraday Key-Zone that offered considerable bearish pressure on the GBPUSD Pair.

Bullish Persistence above the mentioned price zone of 1.3100-1.3150 was supposed to allow bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3400 as a final projection target for the suggested bullish pattern.

However, the GBP/USD pair failed to do so, Instead, another bearish movement was targeting the price level of 1.2840 where bullish SUPPORT existed allowing another bullish movement initially towards 1.3000 which failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum.

That's why, the recent bullish breakout above 1.3000 has enabled further bullish advancement towards 1.3250-1.3270 where the upper limit of the current movement channel is located.

Price action should be watched around the current price levels (1.3250-1.3270) for signs of bearish pressure as a valid SELL Entry can be offered. Initial bearish target is located at 1.3000. While S/L should be placed above 1.3300.

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