Trump has reason to be nervous: Biden is still in the lead

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

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The United States continues to elect a president. No certainty on this matter yet. A couple of points added to Democrat Joe Biden, who, according to CNN's statement this morning, is significantly ahead of Donald Trump in terms of votes. Biden has 1,096 votes more than the current president in the state of Georgia. But in the previous two days, Trump held the lead there. By the way, no Democrat candidate has won in this state since 1992.

However, this information can hardly add confidence in the outcome of the elections. The outcome of the race cannot be considered decided as long as the vote is still being counted in several important states.

But we must admit that Trump is no longer as confident in his victory as before. He is clearly alarmed by the lag behind his rival and does not intend to put up with his possible defeat. The day before, the head of the White House rushed to file lawsuits against the Democrats over the incorrect counting of votes in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan, as well as demanding to suspend the counting of votes. Trump insists that the current election results are clearly unreliable. He is sure that the wrong votes are being counted.

For example, in Michigan, representatives of the president's headquarters noted that observers were unable to monitor the count of ballots. Trump demanded the elimination of violations and a recount of the counted votes. However, the claim was rejected. A similar situation occurred in the state of Georgia. And here the court also did not support the president's demands for a recount of votes.

In Philadelphia, a federal court also denied the presidential headquarters a request to stop the count. Although it is worth noting that before that the local court went to meet the supporters of the incumbent president and allowed observers to approach those who are counting the votes. At the same time, Trump's supporters noted that it was extremely difficult to follow the procedure, and they are not sure that everything was fair.

In Nevada, the president's headquarters also announced violations in the form of counting "illegal" ballots and filed a lawsuit.

However, it is worth recognizing that Trump's headquarters could not present any evidence, so it is not surprising that this kind of passage did not have any effect. On his Twitter, the president said he was going to file lawsuits against the authorities of all states, where Biden is now leading.

It's hard to say whether the game is fair in the United States now. However, some facts make you wonder. So yesterday, Trump's address to US citizens was interrupted by several American TV channels (MSNBC, CNBC, CBS, ABC and NBC), explaining that the president was spreading conspiracy data and was simply lying. These incidents can be viewed on Twitter.

The fastest in this matter was the cable network MSNBC, where, just 35 seconds after the start of the speech of the incumbent president, presenter Brian Williams said that he was forced to interrupt Trump's speech due to its incorrectness. Prior to that, the president tried to convey to the audience that his victory would take place if all the "legal" votes were counted. He also stated that the majority voted for him in Florida and Ohio. However, the audience did not listen to the president to the end, because after the break, the TV channel never returned to broadcasting Trump's speech.

The same incident happened on NBC. Host Savannah Guthrie interrupted Trump's broadcast following his announcement of victory in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump tried to convey to the audience information about the falsification of these elections. However, the viewers could not hear the continuation of the speech, as in the case of MSNBC.

CNBC host Shepard Smith also stopped broadcasting Trump's speech. Obviously without consulting his colleague from NBC, he seemed to repeat her explanation, calling Trump's statements "absolutely untrue."

The television channels CNN and Fox News distinguished themselves only by broadcasting the full speech of Donald Trump. However, this did not exclude open hostility. The caustic comments of the hosts are hard not to remember. The Fox News presenter noted the president's words as unsubstantiated, and the CNN presenter called the speech of the head of the White House "pathetic."

One way or another, due to litigation and recounts in individual states, uncertainty about the election result may last for a very long time. Until the day of the inauguration on January 20, 2021, Trump will be the president of the United States anyway. If the outcome is not approved before the inauguration, then Trump will have to step down and give up the chair in the Oval Office to the acting president. And recounts in a number of wavering states such as Michigan and Wisconsin are more likely. Experts are still inclined to believe that Trump will hardly be able to win through courts and recounts. In the United States, the practice of recounts rarely influenced the outcome of the elections.

Uncertainty about the outcome of the elections is not the only problem in the United States. The recovery of the country's economy after the pandemic is also important. And this uncertainty is growing along with the rise in the number of cases of COVID-19 infections. A share of optimism is added by the fact that unemployment in the United States fell better than expected in October, it decreased to 6.9%, and the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by 638,000.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve kept its monetary policy unchanged. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced the need for additional fiscal and monetary support, without which the recovery of the US economy would be extremely difficult.

The dollar index, which tracks its exchange rate against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.16% to 92.362.

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U.S. Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Rise 0.4% In September

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed an unexpected increase in U.S. wholesale inventories in the month of September.

The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose by 0.4 percent in September after climbing by 0.5 percent in August. Economists had expected inventories to edge down by 0.1 percent.

The unexpected increase in wholesale inventories came as inventories of non-durable goods advanced by 0.7 percent, while inventories of durable goods inched up by 0.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the report said wholesale sales crept up by 0.1 percent in September after jumping by 1.2 percent in August.

A 0.7 percent increase in sales of durable goods was partly offset by a 0.5 percent decrease in sales of non-durable goods.

The inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers subsequently came in at 1.31 in September, unchanged from the previous month.


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U.S. Dollar Dips On Election Uncertainty

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as continued uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election made investors cautious.

Democratic challenger Joe Biden gained more ground on President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Georgia and Pennsylvania, and expanded his lead in Nevada.

As votes continued to be counted and Democrat Biden edges closer to victory, the Trump team is pressing legal challenges in several states.

Biden has secured 253 electoral votes, while Trump won 214 votes.

Data from the Labor Department showed that U.S. employment rose more than expected in October.

The report said non-farm payroll employment jumped by 638,000 jobs in October after surging up by a revised 672,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 600,000 jobs compared to the addition of 661,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent in October from 7.9 percent in September. The unemployment rate was expected to slip to 7.7 percent.

The dollar has been falling in the Asian session as investors awaited the latest news about the U.S. presidential election.

The greenback slipped to 0.8985 against the franc, a level unseen since January 2015. At Thursday's close, the pair was valued at 0.9038. The dollar is seen finding support around the 0.86 region.

The greenback declined to 103.18 against the yen, its lowest level since March 9. The pair was worth 103.45 when it ended deals on Thursday. Should the currency extends decline, 100.00 is possibly seen as its next support level.

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed that Japan household spending fell 10.2 percent on year in September - coming in at 269,863 yen.

That beat forecasts for a decline of 10.7 percent following the 6.9 percent drop in August.

The greenback dropped to near a 2-month low of 1.1891 against the euro, compared to yesterday's closing value of 1.1821. Next key support for the currency is likely seen around the 1.20 level.

Data from Destatis showed that German industrial production grew at a faster pace in September.

Industrial output climbed 1.6 percent on month, bigger than the 0.5 percent rise seen in August but slower than economists' forecast of 2.7 percent.

The U.S. currency pulled back to 1.3042 versus the loonie, after rising to 1.3097 at 11:00 pm ET. The greenback was trading at 1.3044 per loonie at yesterday's close. On the downside, 1.29 is possibly seen as its next support level.

In contrast, the greenback rebounded to 0.7242 versus the aussie and 0.6770 versus the kiwi, from its early low of 0.7287 and a 1-1/2-year low of 0.6802, respectively and was steady. On the upside, 0.70 and 0.66 are possibly seen as the next resistance for the greenback against the aussie and the kiwi, respectively.

The greenback rose to 1.3093 versus the pound, after hitting 1.3157, which was its weakest level since October 21. The pound-greenback pair had finished yesterday's trading session at 1.3146. Immediate resistance for the currency is likely seen around the 1.29 level.

Data from the Lloyds Bank subsidiary Halifax and IHS Markit showed that UK house prices increased at the fastest pace since mid-2016.

House prices increased 7.5 percent on a yearly basis in three months to October from the same period last year, the strongest rise since June 2016. Prices had advanced 7.3 percent in three months to September.


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*U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.4% In September

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.4% In September


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U.S. Employment Jumps More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Drops To 6.9%

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of October, according to a closely watched report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The report said non-farm payroll employment jumped by 638,000 jobs in October after surging up by a revised 672,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 600,000 jobs compared to the addition of 661,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The stronger than expected job growth came as notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction more than offset a steep drop in government employment.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent in October from 7.9 percent in September. The unemployment rate was expected to slip to 7.7 percent.

The notable decrease in the unemployment rate came as the household survey showed employment spiked by 2.24 million in October, while the labor force grew by 724,000 persons.

"While the drop in unemployment was again mainly driven by temporarily laid-off workers returning to their old jobs, the number of permanent job losers also fell back slightly," said Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

He added, "That could be a crucial sign that the longer-term damage from the pandemic will not prove as severe as many had feared."

The Labor Department also said average hourly employee earnings crept up by $0.04 or 0.1 percent to $29.50 in October.


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U.S. Employment Jumps More Than Expected In October

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of October, according to a closely watched report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The report said non-farm payroll employment jumped by 638,000 jobs in October after surging up by a revised 672,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 600,000 jobs compared to the addition of 661,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent in October from 7.9 percent in September. The unemployment rate was expected to slip to 7.7 percent.


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Dollar Ticks Up Following U.S. Jobs Data

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Following the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for October at 8:30 am ET Friday, the greenback edged up against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 103.42 against the yen, 0.8997 against the franc, 1.1869 against the euro and 1.3120 against the pound around 8:31 am ET.


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Loonie Advances After Canada Jobs Data

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Statistics Canada has released Canada jobs data for October at 8:30 am ET Friday.

The loonie climbed against its major counterparts following the data.

The loonie was trading at 0.9475 against the aussie, 79.18 against the yen, 1.5503 against the euro and 1.3061 against the greenback around 8:33 am ET.


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*Canadian Unemployment Rate Edges Down To 8.9% In October

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Unemployment Rate Edges Down To 8.9% In October


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*Canadian Employment Increased By 84,000 Jobs In October

Trading 06 Nov 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Employment Increased By 84,000 Jobs In October


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