*U.S. Dollar Falls To 1.2984 Against Pound, Lowest Since September 18

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Dollar Falls To 1.2984 Against Pound, Lowest Since September 18


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October 5, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

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By the end of August, the EURUSD pair has achieved a temporary breakout above the previously mentioned resistance zone located around 1.1900.

However, Significant SELLING pressure was applied around 1.2000 where the upper limit of the movement pattern came to meet the pair.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick bearish decline towards 1.1800 then 1.1770-1.1750 which failed to offer sufficient Support for the EUR/USD.

Earlier Last week, a breakout to the downside was executed below the price level of 1.1750 (Lower limit of the depicted movement pattern). Hence intraday technical outlook has turned into bearish.

Intraday traders should consider any pullback towards the recently-broken key-zone (1.1750-1.1770) for a valid SELL Entry.

On the other hand, a breakout above 1.1820 (Exit Level) will probably enable further upside movement towards 1.1860-1.1900.

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October 5, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

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Intermediate-term technical outlook for the GBP/USD pair has remained bullish since bullish persistence was achieved above 1.2780 (Depicted Key-Level) on the H4 Charts.

On the other hand, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought after such a quick bullish movement while approaching the price level of 1.3475.

That's why, short-term bearish reversal was expected especially after bearish persistence was achieved below the newly-established key-level of 1.3300.

A quick bearish decline took place towards 1.2900 then 1.2780 where considerable bullish rejection has been expressed during the past few weeks.

The price zone of 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken trend) remains an Intraday Key-Zone to offer bearish pressure if retested again.

However, the GBPUSD pair has shown lack of sufficient bullish momentum to pursue above the price level of 1.3000 upon the past few bullish trials.

Bullish Persistence above the depicted price zone of 1.2975 -1.3000 is currently needed to allow bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3100. Otherwise, further bearish decline would be expected towards the price level of 1.2600.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders are advised to wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken trend) for a valid SELL Entry.

Initial T/p level is to be located around 1.3050 and 1.2900 if sufficient bearish pressure is maintained.

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October 5, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

analytics5f7b6078a75f3.jpgT/P levels to be located around 1.1770, 1.1645 and 1.1600 while S/L to be placed above 1.1860 to minimize the associated risk.

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UK Service Sector Continues To Expand On Orders

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

The UK service sector continued to log strong growth in September underpinned by another upturn in new work amid reduced pandemic restrictions, final data from IHS Markit showed Monday.

The IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 56.1 versus 58.8 a month ago. Although the lowest reading since June, this was above the flash score of 55.1.

The survey suggested that the withdrawal of the government's Eat Out to Help Out scheme, plus an introduction of some tighter restrictions on activity in September softened the growth in new business.

Sentiment among service providers remained comfortably inside the positive territory but eased to a four-month low in September.

Companies were increasingly worried about the impact of a second wave of virus infections and the gradual withdrawal of government support, especially the furlough scheme.

Although survey respondents reported a third successive monthly rise in operating expenses, the rate of inflation was moderate amid reports of lower employment costs.

Employment continued to fall in the service sector. Easing to the slowest since March, the rate of job losses was again marked in September.

Although both manufacturing and services rates of expansion remained sharp in September, overall private sector showed slower gains in output.

The composite output index dropped to 56.5 in September from a six-year high of 59.1 in August. However, the reading was above the flash 55.7.

While the third quarter will inevitably see a strong economic rebound, growth in the fourth quarter looks likely to be far less impressive, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said.


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Euro Higher On Trump's Recovery, Encouraging Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

The euro strengthened against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday, as Eurozone investor confidence improved more-than-expected in October and U.S. political uncertainty reduced after President Donald Trump's medical team suggested that he could be discharged from the hospital as early as today.

Risk sentiment improvement after Trump's medical team suggested that his condition is improving following treatment for Covid-19 and could be sent back to the White House today. "It's been a very interesting journey. I learned a lot about COVID," Trump said, standing in his hospital room in a video posted on social media. "I learned it by really going to school." He added, "I get it, and I understand it."

Investors are pinning hopes that America will pass a new stimulus bill sooner rather than later. Trump tweeted over the weekend that the U.S. "wants and needs stimulus".

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CBS in an interview that progress was being made on coronavirus relief legislation to respond to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Survey data from Sentix showed that Eurozone economic index rose better than forecast in October.

The investor confidence index came in at -8.3 in October, better than expectation of -9.5. Nonetheless, it was down from the September score of -8.0.

The EUR/USD pair hit a 4-day high of 1.1754, versus Friday's trading close of 1.1714. The euro is seen finding resistance around the 1.20 mark.

Extending early rally, the euro appreciated to a 4-day high of 124.18 against its Japanese counterpart. The pair had finished last week's deals at 123.39. Next key resistance for the euro is likely seen around the 127.5 level.

The latest survey from Jibun Bank showed that the services sector in Japan continued to contract in September, albeit at a slower pace, with a seasonally adjusted services PMI score of 46.6.

That's up from 45.0 in August, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

After falling to near a 3-week low of 1.0735 at 7:30 pm ET, the euro rose to 1.0778 against the franc. Should the euro rallies further, it is likely to test resistance around the 1.10 region.

The euro bounced off to 1.5599 against the loonie, from a 1-week low of 1.5561 seen at 3:00 am ET. The euro is likely to face resistance near the 1.58 region.

The euro recovered to 1.7688 against the kiwi and 1.6373 against the aussie, reversing from near 2-week lows of 1.7618 and 1.6308, respectively hit in early deals. The next possible resistance for the euro is seen around 1.82 against the kiwi and 1.66 against the aussie.

In contrast, the euro pulled back to 0.9059 against the pound, from a high of 0.9088 set at 3:00 am ET. The euro may face support around the 0.88 mark.

Looking ahead, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing composite index for September will be out in the New York session.


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*Norway September House Prices Up 5.80% Y/Y

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

Norway September House Prices Up 5.80% Y/Y


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US stimulus package an indicator for gold’s growth

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

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If earlier missiles fired at the Middle East, or nuclear tests conducted by North Korea, could easily trigger a gold rally, now all this seems to have no meaning for the so-called "safe harbor".

Even the news that US President Donald Trump had contracted the coronavirus did not cause the precious metal to rise rapidly. Nonetheless, against this news background, gold rose above $1900, however, this movement did not receive a strong continuation.

The dollar, on the other hand, reacted quite positively and began to strengthen. The weakening of Trump's positions in the election race is a positive factor for the greenback, as it increases the alertness of stock market participants and increases the craving for defensive assets.

Greenback has risen periodically since early August, despite a gaping U.S. budget deficit pit, record unemployment rates in the country, and other economic troubles associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is the counterintuitive rise in the USD that is one of the reasons why gold is unable to return to record highs in the $ 2,000 mark.

At the same time, it is now becoming clear that new economic stimulus measures in the US are needed to resume the gold's upward trend. Without this, according to experts, sentiment on the precious metal market is increasingly shifting towards bearish.

This year, gold has reached unprecedented heights amid unprecedented support measures for the US economy.

The $3 trillion allocated for this purpose dried up by the second quarter, additional funds were needed to inject into the economy, and the gold bulls were already anticipating the ringing of coins.

However, negotiations between Republicans and Democrats on the next package of support measures have stalled.

Against this background, gold dipped in September to two-month lows around $1,855.

After much verbal battles in Congress, progress was at last made last week, when US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that he had had a round of effective talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on new measures to stimulate the national economy.

This allowed gold to move away from two-month lows and return to $ 1900.

The hopes that the US Congress will pass stimulus legislation seems to be what the market is holding onto right now.

"We expect gold to continue to consolidate ahead of a possible move above $ 1993 to target $ 2075 again. A possible move above this level will resume the bullish trend with resistance at $ 2,175, then at $ 2,300. Meanwhile, a breakdown of the $ 1,837 mark could trigger a deeper fall to $ 1,765, potentially to $ 1,726. We are not looking for weak points here, which will appear below. However, if this happened, it would significantly increase the risk of the end of the bullish trend," said Credit Suisse.

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Gold Holds Steady On Trump Health Update

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

Gold prices held largely steady on Monday as investors sought more clarity on the health of U.S. President Donald Trump and the stimulus talks to support the U.S. economic recovery.

Spot gold held steady at $1,898.59 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,903.10.

Risk sentiment improvement somewhat after Trump's medical team suggested that he could be discharged from the hospital as early as today.

"It's been a very interesting journey. I learned a lot about COVID," Trump said, standing in his hospital room in a video posted on social media. "I learned it by really going to school." He added, "I get it, and I understand it."

Meanwhile, investors are pinning hopes that America will pass a new stimulus bill sooner rather than later. Trump tweeted over the weekend that the U.S. "wants and needs stimulus".

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CBS in an interview that progress was being made on coronavirus relief legislation to respond to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Separately, Politico reported that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Pelosi consulted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about their stimulus plan talks.


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*Latvia August Manufacturing Output -2.7% M/M

Trading 05 Oct 2020 Commentaire »

Latvia August Manufacturing Output -2.7% M/M


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