Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 15? Getting ready for Tuesday session

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move inside the 1.17-1.19 side channel on Monday, September 14; continued to correct against Friday's 100-point drop; continued to trade above the small and weak upward trend line. A signal did not appear during the day, which we mentioned in the morning. The price did not overcome the trend line, which would allow novice traders to resume trading on a decline. In general, trading was quite low-volatile on Monday (only 55 points passed from the high to the low of the day). The price is currently moving back to the upper line of the side channel, but we still believe that the euro/dollar pair has a better chance of resuming to move down. We do not recommend working with buy signals from the MACD indicator at this time, despite the seemingly existing upward trend (trend line). The trend is very weak, as is the trend line.

Fundamental background was practically absent on Monday for the euro and dollar. Only one more or less important report on industrial production in July in the European Union was published. It turned out that the real values of the report slightly exceeded the forecasted ones. In annual terms, the decline in production was 7.7% instead of the expected 8.2%, and in monthly terms - the increase was 4.1% instead of the forecast of +4.0%. No important messages for the day either. Once again, we remind novice traders that at this time there are several important topics that can create a certain background that will affect the pair in the long term. For example, now this background is such that the pair has been trading in a 200-point sideways channel for a month and a half. Market participants do not see the information, the data that can take the pair out of the flat. Nevertheless, the coronavirus epidemic and the upcoming US presidential elections are now of great importance for the dollar. The conflict with China seems to have been put on hold, and mass rallies and protests were suppressed.

No important macroeconomic publications either in the European Union or in the United States on Tuesday, September 15. Only a report on industrial production in America, which, like today's report on industrial production in the EU, is unlikely to cause a significant market reaction. Therefore, there is a high probability that trading will proceed in an ultra-calm channel with low volatility tomorrow. The US will sum up the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Most likely, the markets will not risk in vain and force things the day before such an important event.

Possible scenarios for September 15:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to consider buying at this time, since the price could not overcome the 1.1903 level, which is the upper line of the side channel. Therefore, moving up in the long term is canceled for now. Also, there is not a single serious pattern that would support the upward trend now.

2) Sell positions still look more attractive, only because traders could not overcome the 1.1903 level, and trading is now taking place near the upper line of the side channel of 1.17-1.19. Accordingly, it makes more sense to sell in the upper part of the side channel than to buy. We advise you to wait until the price settles below the upward trend line, which will be a good signal to sell. At the same time, we do not expect the pair to sharply fall today or tomorrow, unless strong and unexpected news comes at the disposal of traders. The nearest targets for the downward movement are the support levels of 1.1813 and 1.1781.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Dollar problems and Brexit for the euro

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

Monday's empty calendar did not prevent buyers of the EUR/USD pair from showing their character and approaching the borders of the 19th figure. And although traders did not dare to storm this price level, they indicated the priority of bullish sentiment. To be more precise, the pair primarily grew due to the US dollar's weakness, which is declining to one degree or another throughout the market. The European currency is kept afloat only due to the optimistic and restrained position of the European Central Bank, which, in fact, made it possible for the euro to grow in the long term. ECB President Christine Lagarde did not support the chief economist of the central bank Philip Lane, who criticized the euro's high rate on the eve of the September meeting. After his comments, many traders feared foreign exchange interventions (or related announcements), but their fears did not materialize. Lagarde reacted rather calmly to the euro's exchange rate, only noting that the central bank would "closely monitor" the dynamics of EUR/USD.

This ECB's stance made it possible for the euro to stay afloat against the dollar, but did not allow a test of the multi-month highs in the area of the 20th figure. Nonetheless, the dollar plays the leading role in determining the EUR/USD trend, therefore market participants are primarily guided by greenback's behavior.

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The dollar index also cannot get out of the flat band, in which the indicator has been fluctuating for almost a month and a half. After it grew at the beginning of Monday (93.30), the dollar then lost its conquered positions again, and returned to the area of the 92nd figure. Considering the fact that the macroeconomic calendar (for both the euro and the dollar) is empty today, the market was guided by near-market (mainly political) fundamental factors.

The dollar is under pressure from three factors. First, the dollar bulls reacted painfully to the failure of the vote for an additional aid package to the American economy - last Thursday the US Senate rejected the Republican bill. Moreover, the congressmen made it clear that there is practically no hope for the adoption of such a bill in the foreseeable future. Democrats insist on their proposal, which is worth almost three trillion, while Republicans have offered a 300 billion aid package (i.e. 10 times less). After two months of fruitless talks, the parties are rejecting the option of consultations on this issue.

The second factor of pressure is also related to politics. The results of the latest poll conducted by Fox News were published today. So, a month and a half before the election, Donald Trump reduced his gap with Democrat Joe Biden at the national level again - this time to five percent. If 51% of voters are ready to vote for Biden, then 46% are for Trump. The head of the White House is closing the gap with Biden in key states, and nine regions of the country have so far decided who they will vote for (they total 147 electoral votes). At the same time, Trump continues to intensify anti-Chinese rhetoric, scaring the markets with increased trade confrontation between the superpowers after his re-election.

The third "anchor" is associated with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be announced this Wednesday. Traders fear that the details of the Fed's new strategy will put more pressure on the greenback. Let me remind you that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that inflation could exceed the target two percent threshold before the central bank returns to the issue of raising the rate. Now the main question is where exactly is the "red line" for the Fed and how high inflation should climb for the central bank to tighten the parameters of monetary policy. Given the ongoing intrigue, traders are in no hurry to invest in the dollar.

The euro is also under certain pressure, albeit an indirect one. The controversial UK home market bill, which contradicts the deal between London and Brussels, is now in the House of Commons. Discussion of this bill starts today, and it will soon become clear whether it will be supported by the British Parliament or not. Five (!) former prime ministers, many prominent Conservatives and even ex-British finance minister Sajid Javid, who worked in Johnson's Cabinet, have spoken out against this bill. This disposition reduces the likelihood that MPs will approve a bill that in fact violates international law. On the other hand, this bill will only work if the parties do not enter into a trade deal. Prime Minister Boris Johnson focuses on this very moment. However, he claims that the European Union can "stop the supply of food from the UK to Northern Ireland." In other words, it is impossible to completely exclude the option that the House of Commons will approve the bill in the first reading. Therefore, the euro is behaving quite cautiously, although it dominates against the greenback.

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Therefore, you should prioritize buy positions for the EUR/USD pair, even despite the Brexit factor. The growth target for the medium term is 1.1930 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Stop loss can be marked at 1.1690 (the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe) - if the pair goes below this target, the relevance of the growth scenario will be lost - at least in the medium term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

India Inflation Slows Unexpectedly

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

India's consumer price inflation slowed slightly in August, defying expectations for a modest acceleration, figures from the statistical office showed on Monday. The consumer price index rose 6.69 percent year-on-year following a 6.73 percent increase in July. Economists had forecast 6.85 percent inflation. The food price inflation eased to 9.05 percent from 9.27 percent. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.52 percent and the food price index climbed 0.70 percent in August. As various pandemic related restrictions were gradually lifted and nonessential activities started resuming operations, availability of price data has also improved, the statistical office said.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound Advances Before Controversial Internal Market Bill

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

The pound appreciated against its major rivals in the European session on Monday, ahead of the debate on the Internal Market Bill due today amid opposition against the controversial plans.

The legislation violates the withdrawal agreement signed in January, souring relations between London and Brussels.

It will override the Northern Ireland protocol, which requires the island of Ireland to follow EU rules in the event of a no deal Brexit.

Several members of the Conservative Party said that they will vote against the bill or abstain to block it from proceeding through Parliament.

Investors await the Bank of England's monetary policy decision due this week for more direction. Although the central bank is expected to leave the policy rate and QE unchanged, it is likely to signal further easing amid cloudy economic outlook.

The pound edged up to 0.9213 against the euro, after falling to 0.9262 at 5:15 pm ET. Next key resistance for the pound is seen around the 0.90 region.

Data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone industrial production grew at a slightly faster than expected pace in July, as the economy attempts to sustain its recovery from the slump caused by the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic.

Industrial production rose 4.1 percent from June, when it grew 9.5 percent, which was revised from 9.1 percent reported initially. Production gained for a third straight month.

The pound recovered from a 1-1/2-month low of 135.44 against the yen, with the pair trading at 136.55. The pound is seen finding resistance around the 138.00 level.

The pound rose to 1.1687 against the franc, from a low of 1.1615 seen at 5:00 pm ET. Further uptrend may take the pound to a resistance around the 1.19 area.

Extending early rally, the U.K. currency hit 1.2897 versus the greenback, marking a 4-day high. Continuation of the pound's uptrend may take it to a resistance around the 1.31 level.


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*India August Food Price Inflation 9.05% Vs. 9.27% In July

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

India August Food Price Inflation 9.05% Vs. 9.27% In July


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*India August CPI Inflation 6.69% Vs. 6.73% In Jul, Consensus 6.85%

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

India August CPI Inflation 6.69% Vs. 6.73% In Jul, Consensus 6.85%


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Edge Higher As Dollar Loses Ground

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

Gold prices are modestly higher Monday morning as the dollar extended recent weakness in the Asian session with traders looking ahead to the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.

Higher U.S. futures that indicate a firm start for equities amid renewed optimism about coronavirus vaccine following resumption of stage III trials in the U.K. by AstraZeneca contributed to dollar's weakness, but likely limited gold's uptick as well.

The dollar index, which dropped to 92.99, is currently at 93.04, down 0.32% from Friday's close.

Gold futures for December are up $4.20 or 0.22% at $1,952.10 an ounce.

Silver futures for December are rising $0.184 or 0.7% at $27.050 an ounce, while Copper futures for December are gaining $0.0142 or 0.47% at $3.0537 per pound.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures Down Marginally Amid Demand Concerns

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices are slightly lower Monday morning amid continued concerns about outlook for energy demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.

A report from OPEC showing a downward revision in its outlook for global oil demand for the year is weighing on crude prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for October are down $0.05 or 0.13% at $37.28 a barrel, coming off a low of $36.85 a barrel.

Citing the likely slow pace of recovery of the Indian economy as well as that of several other Asian countries, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for the year to about 90.2 million barrels per day, down by about 400,000 barrels from its August estimate.

OPEC has also said that demand for oil is likely to be low in the first six months of the coming year as well. "Additionally, risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly in relation to the development of Covid-19 infection cases and potential vaccines," the group said in the report.

An announcement from Libya that it would end its months-long blockade and resume output also contributed to oil's weakness earlier in the session.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 14, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

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The EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways within the depicted expanding channel since August 3.

Previously, a temporary resistance level was formed around 1.1900 which prevented further upside movement for and forced the pair to have a downside pause for sometime.

On August 31, the EURUSD pair achieved another breakout above the previously mentioned resistance zone.

Significant SELLING pressure was applied around 1.2000 where the upper limit of the movement pattern came to meet the pair.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick bearish decline towards 1.1800.

More downside movement was expected towards the lower limit of the movement pattern around 1.1770-1.1750 where a valid BUYING opportunity was suggested.

As expected, a valid BUYING position was offered. Significant movement to the upside was demonstrated. Initial target would be located around 1.1900 where price action should be watched.

A breakout above 1.1920 (76.4% Fibonacci Level) will probably enable further upside movement towards 1.1960-1.1980.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 14, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 14 sept 2020 Commentaire »

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Intermediate-term technical outlook for the GBP/USD pair has remained bullish since bullish persistence was maintained above 1.2780 (Depicted KeyLevel) on the H4 Charts.

On the other hand, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought after such a quick bullish movement while approaching the price level of 1.3475.

That's why, short-term bearish reversal was expected especially after bearish persistence was achieved below the key-level level of 1.3300.

A quick bearish decline towards 1.2900 where significant bullish recovery was recently expressed.

The price zone of 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken trend) remains an Intraday Key-Zone to offer bearish pressure if retested again soon.

However, the GBPUSD pair is showing lack of sufficient bullish momentum to pursue above the price level of 1.3000. That's why, bearish persistence below 1.3000 will probably enable further bearish decline initially towards 1.2800 where price action should be watched again.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders are advised to wait for bullish pullback towards 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken trend) as a valid SELL Entry.

Initial T/p level is to be located around 1.3050 and 1.2900 if sufficient bearish pressure is maintained. On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.3200 invalidates this trading scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com