Portugal Economy In Severe Recession In Q2

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Portugal's economy contracted massively in the second quarter amid a sharp decline in domestic demand and exports due to the disruption caused by the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic. Gross domestic product decreased 16.5 percent year-on-year after a 2.3 percent fall in the first quarter, preliminary figures from Statistics Portugal showed on Friday. Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline qualifies as a technical recession. The severe decline was largely due to the negative contribution from domestic demand reflecting the significant contraction in private consumption and investment. Net external demand also contributed negatively due to the steep fall in exports of good and services than imports as non-resident tourism was largely interrupted amid the lockdown. Both negative contributions were significantly more pronounced than in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP fell 14.1 percent in the three months to June after a 3.8 percent fall in the first quarter.


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Taiwan Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks In Q2

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Taiwan's economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter after growth in the first three months of the year as demand deteriorated amid the coronavirus, or Covid-19 pandemic, preliminary figures from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics showed Friday.

Gross domestic product decreased 0.73 percent year-on-year after a 1.59 percent increase in the first quarter. In May, the DGBAS had forecast 0.50 percent growth for the second quarter. Domestic demand decreased 0.70 percent in the second quarter with private consumption falling 5.13 percent. State spending decreased 0.92 percent. Gross fixed capital formation grew 9.56 percent, thanks to the growth of the investment in construction as well as machinery and equipment. Total exports declined 3.68 percent and imports dropped 4.24 percent. Merchandise exports and imports decreased 2.42 percent and 4.00 percent, respectively. Services trade shrank markedly mainly due to sharp reduction in travel. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, GDP decreased 8.82 percent in the second quarter after a 3.57 percent fall in the first three months of the year.


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Short-term Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Gold price made a slight new higher high today. Trend remains bullish but the chances for a deeper pull back increase. Today we are going to use the Ichimoku cloud indicator in order to identify support levels that if broken could provide signal for a bigger pull back.

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The tenkan-sen (red line indicator) is the first key short-term support at $1,960. A 4 hour close below it will push price towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,944. If we break this level too then we expect price to push towards the Kumo (cloud) support at $1,920. So short-term traders need keep a close eye on these support levels. Breaking one will increase chances of reaching the next.

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Eurusd stops upward move at major Fibonacci resistance

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Although EURUSD made new higher highs today at 1.1908, price has significantly pulled back since then and is now below 1.18. As we explained in previous posts this is important resistance area and I do not expect it to be broken immediately.

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The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is important resistance. It is was expected that the parabolic upward move would stop there. I expect next week to see a deeper pull back towards 1.17. This is the most probable scenario. The bullish trend remains intact.

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USDJPY bounces towards our short-term target of 105.75

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

USDJPY made a new lower low on Friday at 104.20 but the pressures were short-lived. As we explained in our last USDJPY analysis, the RSI was showing bullish divergence signs. Our bounce target was at 105.75.

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Green lines - bullish divergence

USDJPY is bouncing strongly towards the key Fibonacci resistance at 106.10. This is important short-term resistance and a first rejection at this level is expected. USDJPY remains in a bearish trend as long as price is below 107.50. Failure to hold price above 105 will be a bearish sign. Next week will be decisive for the medium-term trend in USDJPY.

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Canadian Dollar Advances After Strong GDP Data

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar spiked up against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, after a data showed that Canadian economy expanded more than expected in May.

Data from Statistics Canada showed that gross domestic product rose 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in May following a 11.7 percent drop in April. Economists had expected the economy to expand by 3.5 percent.

Separate data showed that prices for products manufactured in Canada rose in June, driven mainly by higher prices for energy and petroleum products.

The IPPI increased 0.4 percent in June, following a 1.2 percent increase in May. Economists had forecast a rise of 0.8 percent.

The loonie appreciated to 1.5844 against the euro, after falling to a 3-1/2-month low of 1.5979 at 2:45 am ET. The next possible resistance for the loonie is seen around the 1.56 mark.

Flash estimate from Eurostat showed that the euro area economy contracted at the fastest pace on record in the second quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Gross domestic product fell 12.1 percent on a quarterly basis, bigger than the 3.6 percent drop in the first quarter. This was bigger than the economists' forecast of 11.2 percent and was the sharpest decline seen since the series began in 1995.

The loonie advanced to 78.65 against the yen, from more than a 2-month low of 77.61 seen at 12:00 am ET. On the upside, 81 is likely seen as its next resistance level.

Data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent on month in June, beating forecasts for a gain of 1.2 percent following the 8.9 percent decline in May.

That beat forecasts for a gain of 1.2 percent following the 8.9 percent decline in May.

Reversing from a 1-1/2-year low of 0.9697 set at 2:30 am ET, the loonie edged up to 0.9616 against the aussie. The loonie is likely to face resistance around the 0.94 level.

In contrast, the loonie held steady against the greenback, after having climbed to 1.3405 at 4:00 am ET. At Thursday's close, the pair was worth 1.3422.


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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Deteriorates More Than Initially Estimated In July

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. deteriorated by more than initially estimated in the month of July, according to a report released by the University of Michigan on Friday.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for July was downwardly revised to 72.5 from the preliminary reading of 73.2. The index is down from 78.1 in June and below economist estimates for a reading of 73.0.

"Consumer sentiment sank further in late July due to the continued resurgence of the coronavirus," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

The decrease by the headline index was partly due to a drop by the index of consumer expectations, which slumped to 65.9 in July from 72.3 in June. The index matched the six-year low recorded in May.

The University of Michigan said the current economic conditions index also slid to 82.8 in July from 87.1 in the previous month.

"While the 3rd quarter GDP is likely to improve over the record setting 2nd quarter plunge, it is unlikely that consumers will conclude that the recession is anywhere near over," Curtin said.

Curtin noted federal relief programs have prevented more substantial declines in consumer finances but warned a lapse of the special jobless benefits will directly hurt the most vulnerable.

On the inflation front, the report said one-year inflations expectations were unchanged from the previous month at 3.0 percent, while five-year inflation expectations inched up to 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent.


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Chicago Business Barometer Unexpectedly Indicates Expansion In July

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

Following twelve straight months of contraction, MNI Indicators released a report on Friday showing an unexpected expansion in Chicago-area business activity in the month of July.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer spiked to 51.9 in July from 36.6 in June, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in regional business activity. Economists had expected the index to jump to 43.9.

With the much bigger than expected increase, the Chicago business barometer reached its highest level since May of 2019.

The headline index skyrocketed as the new orders index soared to its highest level since August of 2019 and the production index also surged back into expansion territory.

MNI Indicators said some companies noted recovering orders, while others reported continued difficulties due to the Covid-19 effects.

The report also showed a notable increase by the employment index, although MNI Indicators noted there was anecdotal evidence that firms had to lay off staff as a result of the current health crisis.

On the inflation front, the prices paid at the factory gate edged higher, gaining 1.7 points to reach a seven-month high.


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Dollar Little Changed After U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for July has been released at 10:00 am ET Friday. After the data, the greenback changed little against its major opponents.

The greenback was trading at 105.69 against the yen, 1.3162 against the pound, 1.1824 against the euro and 0.9118 against the franc around 10:02 am ET.


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*U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Downwardly Revised To 72.5 In July

Trading 31 juil 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Downwardly Revised To 72.5 In July


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