Loonie Ticks Down After Canada Retail Sales

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Canada retail sales for April have been released at 8:30 am ET Friday. The loonie edged down against its major rivals after the data.

The loonie was trading at 0.9366 against the aussie, 1.5242 against the euro, 1.3568 against the greenback and 78.71 against the yen around 8:35 am ET.


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*Croatia May Jobless Rate 9.5% Vs. 9.4% In April

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Croatia May Jobless Rate 9.5% Vs. 9.4% In April


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*Iceland May HICP Rises 0.9% On Year Vs. -0.1% In April

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Iceland May HICP Rises 0.9% On Year Vs. -0.1% In April


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*Portugal May Producer Prices Fall 6.7% On Year Vs. -5.4% In April

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Portugal May Producer Prices Fall 6.7% On Year Vs. -5.4% In April


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Loonie Mixed Ahead Of Canada Retail Sales

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Canada retail sales for April will be published at 8:30 am ET Friday. The loonie traded mixed against its major rivals before the data. While it rose against the greenback and the euro, it held steady against the yen. Against the aussie, it dropped.

The loonie was worth 0.9360 against the aussie, 1.5228 against the euro, 1.3563 against the greenback and 78.73 against the yen at 8:25 am ET.


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Comprehensive analysis of movement options for #USDX vs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY (H4) on June 22, 2020

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Minor operational scale (Daily)

What will happen to the "majors" in the last nine days of June? Development options for the movement of #USDX vs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY on June 22, 2020.

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US dollar index

From June 22, 2020, the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.23 - 97.75 - 98.25) of the Minute operational scale forks, taking into account the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 97.45 - the upper limit of the SSL of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • support level of 97.23 - lower bound of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork.

If the resistance level of 97.20 breaks through on the initial line of the SSL of the Minute operational scale fork, the upward movement of the dollar index will be directed towards the goals:

  • control line UTL Minuette (97.60);
  • Median Line Minute (97.75);
  • ultimate Shiff Line Minute (97.85);
  • upper bound of ISL61.8 (98.25) of the Minute operational scale forks.

In case of breaking the lower border ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork - support level of 97.23 - the development of the movement #USDX will be continued in the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (97.23 - 97.08 - 96.95) with the prospect of reaching the zone boundary equilibrium (96.78 - 96.55 - 96.35) of the Minuette operational scale fork and channel 1/2 Median Line (96.70 - 96.35 - 96.00) of the Minute operational scale fork.

The layout of the #USDX movement options from June 22, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

analytics5eece42f8152e.jpg

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR/USD from June 22, 2020 will continue, depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.1250 - the upper limit of ISL 38. 2 of the balance zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.1250 - final Shiff Line Minuette.

If the support level of 1.1215 breaks through to the final Shiff Line Minuette followed by a breakdown of the median line Median Line (1.1185) of the Minuette operational scale fork, it will be important to continue the downward movement of the single European currency to the borders of the equilibrium zone (1.1120 - 1.1030 - 1.0935) of the Minute operational scale fork.

In the case of breakdown of the top border ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - resistance level of 1.1250 - can be renewed upward movement of the EUR/USD to the borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1340 - 1.1375 - 1.1422) .

The EUR/USD movement options from June 22, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5eece44f12990.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of the movement of Her Majesty's currency GBP/USD/USD from June 22, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

Breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette - support level 1.2390 - the GBP/USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.2390 - 12280 - 1.2170) of the Minuette operational pitchfork with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line (1.2100) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2460, Her Majesty's currency will continue to move in the 1/2 Median Line (1.2460 - 1.2535 - 1.2610) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the starting line FSL Minuette (1.2730) and the control line UTL (1.2765) of the Minute operational scale forks.

Options for the movement of GBP/USD from June 22, 2020 are shown on the animated chart .

analytics5eece469569f8.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the currency movement of the "Land of the Rising Sun" USD/JPY from June 22, 2020 will also be determined by testing and the direction of the range:

  • resistance level 107.20 - 1/2 Median Line Minute;
  • support level 106.75 - upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Breakdown of 1/2 Median Line of the Minute operational scale forks - resistance level 107.20 - continuation of the upward movement of the currency of the "Land of the Rising Sun" to the goals:

  • upper limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line (107.70) of the Minute operational scale forks.

A consecutive breakout of ISL38.2 Minute - support level of 106.75 - and the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (106.65) will confirm the further development of the USD/JPY movement in the equilibrium zone (106.75 - 106.00 - 105.25) of the Minute operational scale forks.

The markup of USD/JPY movement options since June 22, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

analytics5eece4819518a.jpg

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers, and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

Formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

Where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6 %;

Yen - 13.6 %;

Pound sterling - 11.9 %;

Canadian dollar - 9.1 %;

Swedish Krona - 4.2 %;

Swiss franc - 3.6 %.

The first coefficient in the formula brings the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Canadian Dollar Higher On Oil Rally

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar strengthened against its major counterparts on Friday, as investors awaited European Union meeting aimed to establish a recovery fund to respond to the COVID-19 crisis.

EU leaders will meet via teleconference to discuss proposals for a ?750 billion, EU-wide Covid-19 recovery fund.

Sentiment improved after Japan lifted the last remaining travel restrictions and a Chinese health expert said that a recent virus outbreak in Beijing is under control.

The currency was underpinned by a rally in oil prices as OPEC producers and their allies promised to meet commitments on cutting supply and two major oil traders said demand was recovering well.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing nations on Thursday promised full conformity with oil output cuts from July through September to balance the global oil market.

"Attainment of 100 percent conformity from all participating countries is not only fair and equitable, but vital for the ongoing and timely rebalancing efforts and helping deliver a sustainable oil market stability," the 23-member group said in a statement.

The loonie climbed to 1.3570 against the greenback, from a low of 1.3615 set at 9:00 pm ET. The loonie is seen finding resistance around the 1.33 level.

The loonie edged up to 1.5219 against the euro, after falling to 1.5255 at 12:45 am ET. The loonie is likely to find resistance around the 1.51 level.

Data from Destatis showed that Germany's producer prices declined at the fastest pace in four years in May.

Producer prices fell 2.2 percent year-on-year in May, following a 1.9 percent decline in April. Economists had expected a 2.1 percent decrease. This was the biggest fall since May 2016.

The loonie appreciated to 78.82 against the yen, from yesterday's closing value of 78.66. If the loonie rises further, 80.00 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

In contrast, the loonie dropped against the aussie, with the pair trading at 0.9341. On the downside, 0.96 is likely seen as the next support level for the loonie.

Canada retail sales for April will be featured in the New York session.


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Latvia Producer Prices Continue To Fall

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Latvia's producer prices fell for the eighth month in a row in May, figures from the Central Statistical Bureau showed on Friday.

The producer price index fell 2.4 percent year-on-year in May, following a 2.1 percent decrease in April.

Among components, prices of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply declined 6.7 percent annually in May and prices for manufacturing decreased 1.5 percent.

Prices for water supply and mining and quarrying fell 2.3 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices fell by 0.8 percent in May.


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Greece Current Account Deficit Falls In April

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Greece's current account deficit decreased in April from a year ago, the Bank of Greece said Friday.

The current account deficit fell to EUR 1.1 billion from EUR 1.39 billion in the same month last year.

The services surplus fell to EUR 386 million from EUR 653 million a year ago. This decline was mainly due to sharp deterioration in the travel and transport balances, the central bank said.

In April, the surplus on the travel balance decreased to almost zero and non-residents' receipts fell by 98.7 percent year-on-year.

The capital account registered a surplus of EUR 135 million in April and financial account showed a deficit of EUR 503 million.

For the January to April period, the current account deficit fell to EUR 4.7 billion versus EUR 5.1 billion in the same period last year.


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Europe and Asia stock indices changes in different directions: no signs of growth

Trading 19 juin 2020 Commentaire »

analytics5eecd4d38cfad.jpg

On the last business day this week, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region showed growth. Of course, market participants continue to be energized amid a new wave of coronavirus infections in the United States and China. The escalation of the conflict between the same countries adds even more negative. Nevertheless, today the market does not take this news with due seriousness.

Recall that in the middle of last week, the Chinese authorities made a statement that new cases of COVID-19 infection began to be recorded in the country. To date, the outbreak continues to spread and the number of hospitalized is more than 200 people. Nevertheless, the state authorities hastened to assure the general public that the situation was under control and the further spread of the infection would be limited. However, neither tomorrow nor in the following days, the number of cases will not be zero, for some period you will have to deal with growth.

As a result, investors were not too serious about the outbreaks of COVID-19, which began to be celebrated with renewed vigor not only in the United States and China but also in Latin America and South Asia. A possible second wave of the pandemic has ceased to frighten private traders, as it has moved into the potential zone.

But the reason for the growth has appeared quite real and sustainable. So, traders believe that the Federal Reserve of the United States of America has fallen into a difficult and controversial situation. On the one hand, the stimulating policy has proved to be quite good in supporting the economy but has now ceased to operate at full strength, and on the other, it is impossible to stop it immediately, because the markets will be extremely disappointed and will inevitably roll down. Consequently, while investors have nothing to worry about, the progress will continue for some time to come.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index gained 0.33%, while the South Korean KOSPI index dropped by 0.37%.

Australia's ASX 200 Index was up by 1.11%. Last month, it experienced extremely negative. Now the situation has begun to improve against the background of statistical data concerning a sharp increase in retail turnover by 16.3% immediately in the last month of spring compared to the previous period. At the same time, an equally sharp and significant drop was almost compensated for, which was recorded in April and was in the region of 17.7%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined quite a bit by 0.09%.

China's Shanghai Composite Index rose to 0.50%. Followed by the Shenzhen Component Index, which showed an increase of 1.07%.

European stock exchanges today have not found a single dynamic. Indices are moving in different directions, and market participants are trying to determine what is more important for them: the danger of a second wave of a pandemic or the hopes that will accelerate the recovery of the economies of the countries that are becoming real.

Germany's DAX index jumped by 0.3%. The French CAC 40 index, by contrast, fell by 0.6%. The UK FTSE 100 index also fell by 0.5%.

Meanwhile, market participants have high hopes that additional support measures can positively affect the acceleration of economic growth in most countries of the region. At the same time, the fear of the second wave of COVID-19 here, as well as in the Asia-Pacific region, is also almost completely ignored. It should be noted that some investors nevertheless hastened to moderate their ardor and sided with more reliable assets.

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