Luxembourg Inflation Eases In May

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Luxembourg's consumer price inflation eased in May, figures from the statistical office STATEC showed on Monday.

The consumer price index rose 0.19 percent year-on-year in May, which was slower than the 0.62 percent increase in April.

Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages gained 3.63 percent annually in May. Prices for leisure and culture, and furnishing and household equipment grew 2.59 percent and 2.20 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, prices for transport and housing, water, electricity and fuel declined 4.79 percent and 2.43 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.15 percent in May, following a 0.06 percent decline in the prior month.

The monthly decline was due to the continued fall in the prices of petroleum products and a decline in prices of food products.


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Czech Industrial Production Declines In April

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

The Czech Republic's industrial production declined in April, data from the Czech statistical office showed on Monday.

Industrial production declined a working-day adjusted 33.7 percent year-on-year in April, following a 12.5 percent fall in March.

Manufacturing output declined 35.5 percent yearly in April.

Mining and quarrying output decreased 21.9 percent and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning fell 19.2 percent.

On a monthly basis, industrial production dropped 23.7 percent in April.

Separate data from the statistical office showed that the construction output decreased a working-day adjusted 4.6 percent annually in April.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, construction output fell 1.9 percent monthly in April.

Another report from the Czech statistical office revealed that the trade balance registered a deficit of CZK 26.895 billion in April versus CZK 16.002 billion in the same month last year. In March, trade surplus was 2.066 billion.

Exports declined 39.3 percent annually in April and imports fell 27.0 percent.

On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted exports and imports fell by 19.4 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively.


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Pound Drops As Weak China, German Data Dent Risk Appetite

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

The pound fell against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday, as weak China trade data and German industrial production deteriorated sentiment.

Data from Destatis showed that German industrial production declined at the fastest rate since the series began in 1991.

Industrial output decreased 25.3 percent year-on-year in April, following an 11.3 percent fall in the previous month. This was the biggest fall on record.

Month-on-month, industrial production plunged 17.9 percent versus a revised 8.9 percent drop in March. Economists had forecast a monthly fall of 16 percent.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs over the weekend showed that Chinese exports decreased 3.3 percent on a yearly basis in May. At the same time, imports logged a sharp contraction of 16.7 percent.

The plunge in imports drove the country's trade surplus up sharply to $62.9 billion from $45.3 billion in April.

The Sunday Times reported that the U.K. government is planning to relax controls for pubs, cafes and restaurants, allowing them to serve in outside areas.

Places of worship will reopen for private prayer from June 15, while hairdressers will be allowed to reopen before July 4.

The pound dropped to 1.2163 against the franc and 1.2628 against the greenback, from its early highs of 1.2244 and 1.2729, respectively. The currency is likely to find support around 1.18 against the franc and 1.23 against the greenback.

The pound edged down to 0.8929 against the euro, after rising to a 5-day high of 0.8881 at 12:45 am ET. If the pound slides further, 0.92 is possibly seen as its next support level.

The pound reversed from an early high of 139.58 against the yen, with the pair trading at 138.12. The next possible support for the pound is seen around the 133.00 level.

Looking ahead, at 8:15 am ET, Canada housing starts for May are scheduled for release.


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Lithuania Inflation Slows In May

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Lithuania consumer price inflation eased in May, figures from the statistical office showed on Monday.

The consumer price index rose 0.3 percent year-on-year in May, after a 1.0 percent increase in April.

Cost of education showed the biggest annual growth of 7.8 percent in May.

Prices for hotels, cafes and restaurants increased by 5.8 percent and those of health care, and furniture, household equipment and routine maintenance of house increased by 4.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in May, after a 0.1 percent rise in the previous month.

The latest fall was caused by fall in prices of fuel, heat, other personal care appliances, supplies and vegetables, and vegetables, the agency said.


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Finland Trade Balance Swing To Surplus In April

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Finland's trade balance swung to surplus in April as imports declined faster than exports, preliminary figures from the Finnish Customs showed on Monday.

The trade balance registered a surplus of EUR 190 million in April versus deficit EUR 320 million in the same month last year. In March, the trade deficit was EUR 335 million.

Exports declined 19.8 percent year-on-year in April and imports fell 27.5 percent.

Exports to the EU countries decreased 21.5 percent and imports from EU countries fell 27.7 percent. Shipments to countries outside the EU decreased 17.9 percent and imports from them declined 27.7 percent.

For the January-April period, the trade deficit was EUR 1.2 billion versus a surplus of EUR 45 million a year ago. Exports declined 14.5 percent and imports decreased 9.3 percent.


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Comprehensive analysis of movement options for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD (H1) on June 9, 2020

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Minuette operational scale (H1)

Current options for the development of the movement of "commodity" currencies AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD on June 9, 2020.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) from June 9, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6980-0.7015-0.7045) of the Micro operational scale - see the details on the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Micro operational scale forks - support level 0.6980 - the downward movement of the Australian dollar can continue to the equilibrium zone (0.6940-0.6900-0.6855) of the Minuette operational scale forks, as well as the final Shiff Line (0.6800) and SSL start line (0.6715) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

If the resistance level of 0.7045 breaks at the upper border of ISL38 2 of the balance zone of the Micro operational scale forks, the upward movement of AUD/USD will be directed towards the goals:

  • FSL end line (0.7090) of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • ultimate Shiff Line Micro (0.7120);
  • initial line SSL Micro (0.7145);
  • channel 1/2 Median Line Micro (0.7175-0.7195-0.7215).

From June 9, 2020, we look at the layout of the AUD/USD movement options on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development of the movement of the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) from June 9, 2020 will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.3425 at the lower border of ISL61.8 balance zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.3384 at the upper border of the 1/2 medium line channel of the Micro operational scale fork.

A breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3425 will determine the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the operational scales forks - Minuette (1.3425-1.3455-1.3485) and Micro (1.3485-1.3520-1.3550) with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL line Minuette (1.3590) and the warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (1.3645).

If the support level of 1.3384 will make the actual continuation of the development of the movement of USD/CAD in the channel 1/2 Median Line (1.3384-1.3350-1.3320) of the Micro operational scale fork with the possibility of achieving the price end line FSL Minuette (1.3300) and warning line LWL32.8 (1.3240) and the control line LTL Micro (1.3220).

From June 9, 2020, we look at the layout of USD/CAD movement options on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) from June 9, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

resistance level of 0.6535 on the final Shiff Line Micro;

support level of 0.6505 on the final FSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If the support level 0.6505 at the end of the line FSL Minuette operational scale fork will make possible the achievement of the New Zealand dollar of the channel borders 1/2 Median Line (0.6485-0.6465-0.6445) of the Micro operational scale fork with the prospect of achieving the ultimate line FSL Micro (0.6380) and the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (0.6360) zone equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork.

At the breakdown of the final Shiff Line Micro - resistance level 0.6535 - the development of the movement of NZD/USD may continue to the goals:

  • initial line SSL Micro (0.6555)
  • channel 1/2 Median Line Micro (0.6590-0.6605-0.6620)
  • UTL Micro control line (0.6675)

From June 9, 2020, we look at the markup of the NZD/USD movement on the animated chart.

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers, and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

June 8, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

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Recently, Bullish breakout above 1.2265 has enhanced many bullish movements up to the price levels of 1.2520-1.2590 where temporary bearish rejection as well as a sideway consolidation range were established (In the period between March 27- May 12).

Shortly after, transient bearish breakout below 1.2265 (Consolidation Range Lower Limit) was demonstrated in the period between May 13 - May 26.

However, immediate bullish rebound has been expressed around the price level of 1.2080. This brought the GBPUSD back above the depicted price zone of 1.2520-1.2600 which failed to offer sufficient bearish rejection.

Hence, short-term technical outlook has turned into bullish, further bullish advancement may be expressed towards 1.2780 (Previous Key-Level) and probably 1.2950 if sufficient bullish momentum is maintained.

On the other hand, any bearish breakdown below 1.2520 pauses the bullish outlook for sometime and should be considered as an early exit signal for short-term buyers.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders should wait for any bearish pullback towards the price zone around 1.2520 ( Backside of the broken uptrend, considered as a recent demand level) for a low-risk BUY Entry.

T/P level to be located around 1.2600, 1.2715 and 1.2750 while S/L should be placed below 1.2450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

June 8, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

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On March 20, the EURUSD pair has expressed remarkable bullish recovery around the newly-established bottom around 1.0650.

Bullish engulfing H4 candlesticks as well as the recently-demonstrated ascending bottoms indicated a high probability bullish pullback towards 1.0980 and 1.1075 (Fibo Level 50%).

Shortly after, a sideway consolidation range was established in the price range extending between 1.0770 1.1000.

The price zone of (1.0815 - 1.0775) has been standing as a prominent Demand Zone providing quite good bullish support for the pair so far.

On May 14, Evident signs of Bullish rejection have been manifested around this price zone.

Moreover, recent ascending bottom has been established around 1.0870 which enhances the bullish side of the market in the short-term.

Short-term technical bullish outlook remains valid as long as bullish persistence is maintained above the recently-established ascending bottom around 1.0850-1.0870.

Currently, the recent bullish breakout above 1.1000 has enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1175 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) then 1.1315 (78.6% Fibonacci Level) where temporary bearish rejection was anticipated.

Although the EUR/USD pair is currently expressing a bullish breakout above 1.1315 (78.6% Fibonacci Level), there's negative divergence as well as recent bearish rejection being expressed on the H4 chart.

Moreover, after such a quick bullish spike, the EURUSD pair looks oversold. This suggests a probable bearish reversal around the current price levels (1.1315) to be watched by Intraday traders.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders are advised to wait for bearish breakout below 1.1270 (keylevel) as a valid SELL Signal.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1175 then 1.1100 while S/L to be located above 1.1350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed meeting: where will the dollar go?

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

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The dynamics of the foreign exchange market can be used as an early indicator of sentiment. It shows some craving for profit-taking from a recent rally at the beginning of the week. It is possible for correction to prevail in the market until the Federal Reserve announces its decision on the rate. Investors lurked in anticipation of further signals on the Fed policy.

The chances of a rate hike began to grow at the end of last week, but this is not a reason to allow the Fed to adjust its policy this week. At the moment, the likelihood of such a scenario is a negligible 9-10%, and this is an important signal from markets that do not expect a rate cut.

Traders will be most interested in the accompanying comments of Fed officials. Based on the strong labor market data on Friday, the Fed may release a favorable economic outlook. Activity in the sectors of production and services is also improving, which should be reflected in the economic estimates of the central bank. An optimistic statement on monetary policy may help the US dollar resume growth, which so far has fallen against a basket of key competitors.

USDX

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With an increase in risk, the dollar index fell to the technical level of 96.75, which is more than 23% of the total scope of the March movement. Attempts at consolidation are now noticeable. A short-term upward correction is possible, after which the dollar decline is likely to continue. This is due, in part, to the fact that US monetary policy still remains more aggressive even after the European Central Bank announced new measures to support the economies of the bloc.

Previously occupied long positions in the euro and pound against the US dollar remain relevant. Meanwhile, the British currency still reveals that its potential is worse than the European one, but has every chance of catching up with the euro. The pound is rising thanks to hopes for a Brexit deal. At the same time, the fourth round of negotiations between the UK and the EU ended last Friday with no progress.

Recent changes in the cost of sterling indicate that its price has already included a lot of bad news. This makes the British currency more sensitive to positive news in the near future.

The purpose for continued growth of the GBP/USD pair after the correction is the level of 1.2800. Do not exclude the scenario of depreciation towards support in the region of 1.2530.

GBP/USD

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In general, the growth potential of some currencies may be exhausted. The EUR/USD pair suspended its advancement after eight days of growth. This is due to Friday statistics on the US labor market. In addition, all the positives from the ECB and the efforts of the eurozone finance ministers to stimulate the region's economy have already been taken into account in the quotes of the main pair.

At the moment, it is clear that the EUR/USD pair has received support at 1.1280 and continues to go up. It is possible to move towards the level of 1.1366, then a link of decline to 1.1321 is not excluded. The pair could trade for quite some time in the area of these marks. After their range goes up, the road will open to the level of 1.1460. With the exit down - the path to 1.1222.

EUR/USD

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Latvia's Consumer Prices Fall In May

Trading 08 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Latvia's consumer prices declined in May, figures from the Central Statistical Bureau showed on Monday.

Consumer prices decreased 0.6 percent year-on-year in May after staying flat in April.

Prices of goods were down 1.6 percent annually, while that of services increased 1.8 percent.

The annual fall was driven by the weakness in transport, clothing and footwear and housing. Meanwhile, food prices advanced 2.5 percent and alcohol and tobacco prices gained 1.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.4 percent, following a 0.5 percent decrease in April.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com