EURUSD remains in a bullish short-term trend,

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

EURUSD remains in a bullish trend. Price has broken out and above the resistance of the Kumo. Both the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen are positively sloped. As long as price is above them trend will remain bullish.

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Support is found at 1.0980, at 1.1030 and at 1.1065. These are important support levels. Breaking below any of the above levels would be a bearish sign. However a pull back and back test of the 1.1065 level which is the upper cloud boundary would be very likely to see.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Short-term Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Gold reached $1,745 but price got rejected once again at recent highs and is now pulling back. Trend remains bullish as long as price is above $1,720-$1,710. This is very important support both horizontally and by using the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen indicators.

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The tenkan-sen (red line indicator) has a negative slope. If this indicator crosses below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) we will have a weak sell signal. Key support to be tested afterwards. This support would be at the Cloud (Kumo) at $1,675. Inability to produce higher high is a sign of weakness.As we said many times before, trend might be bullish, but the weekly RSI provides us a with a bearish warning. This makes us be bearish Gold around $1,750 and higher.

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*India Announces $6.7 Bln Plan To Boost Electronics Manufacturing

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

India Announces $6.7 Bln Plan To Boost Electronics Manufacturing


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Norway's Manufacturing Sector Contracts At Slower Pace

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Norway's manufacturing sector contracted at a slower pace in May driven by a gradual reopening of the economy, survey data from the DNB bank showed on Tuesday.

The factory Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 45.9 in May from revised 43.0 in April. However, a score below 50 indicates contraction.

The sub-indices for production rose four points to 40.8. Likewise, the new orders index gained 6.3 points to 41.0 and the employment index climbed 6.7 points to 40.6.

Meanwhile, the sub-index for delivery times fell sharply by 10.9 points to 64.9 in May, the survey showed.


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EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Most Americans consider Trump a racist (opinion poll), which further affects his political ratings.

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past five days: 85p (average).

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with an increase on Tuesday, June 2 as if nothing had happened. Traders have been waiting for a downward correction for several days in a row, but it still does not start. Just a few days ago, the euro/dollar was firmly "sitting" inside the side channel, and there was no fundamental reason for a new upward trend to begin. Market participants cheerfully ignored all macroeconomic reports. Now, even a macroeconomic background is not required. In principle, we cannot even say that the US dollar is falling in value in pairs with the euro and the pound solely due to riots and riots in the United States. Most likely, traders are getting rid of the US currency now for a combination of reasons. And among this aggregate, one can distinguish the impending threat of a new trade war with China, the threat of a cold war with China, the strongest collapse of the US economy, the high threat of the second wave of the epidemic (the likelihood of which has also increased over the past week thanks to all the same rallies and protests of the American people, during which, of course, no rules of social distance are respected), and, frankly, the political crisis. We talked about Donald Trump, his activities, his manner of conducting international and internal affairs a thousand times. In short, we believe that Donald Trump is an excellent businessman who managed to apply his business qualities in the first three years, which benefited America and its GDP, but a bad leader and a bad politician, because he managed to lose everything due to the lack of necessary qualities his merits for the next few months of his reign. Trump constantly underestimated China, underestimated the Democrats, believing that it is the smartest and most powerful. In practice, it turned out that it was intentionally or accidentally, but it was Beijing that dealt such a blow to America that it is now unknown when the "great country" will recover from it. And Trump himself with a high degree of probability will not be the next president of the country.

The events of recent weeks have affected Trump's political ratings not only because the country's president is always responsible for what is happening in this country. According to opinion polls, most Americans think Trump is a racist (52% according to YouGov). 45% of respondents said that, in their opinion, interracial relations in America have worsened in recent years. Agree, it is very disadvantageous when the majority of the population considers the president a racist in the midst of a racist scandal. As for the liking of potential voters, Trump lost 4% in popularity over the past week, and Joe Biden scored 4% and, thus, now the Democrat is leading by a margin of between 8% and 10%.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong Prime Minister Carrie Lam accused the US government of "double standards." At the end of last year, when riots took place in Hong Kong due to the adoption of several laws that contradict the autonomy of the district and the principle of "one state - two systems of government," Washington publicly condemned the actions of the Chinese police, which too harshly pacified the rebels. The White House even made a decision at the legislative level to restrict sales of certain categories of goods that were used by the Chinese police to suppress the riots. Now, when mass protests are taking place in the United States themselves, the American police do not limit themselves at all in the means of suppressing rebellions. "America is very concerned about its own national security, but they look at our national security through tinted glasses," said Lam. "We see how the authorities in the US" cope "with the riots and compare it with their position that they took when almost the same riots occurred in Hong Kong last year." Lam also recalled Trump's words about the "powerful blow", clearly hinting that America had run into what it was fighting for.

4-hour timeframe

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Average volatility over the past five days: 141p (high).

The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement on June 2, which has clearly intensified in recent days. Thus, during the day the pound/dollar pair overcame the second resistance level for this week at 1.2529 and did not show a single sign of starting a correctional movement. The pair's volatility has significantly grown in recent days, and the reasons for strengthening the British currency are now similar to the reasons for the euro's growth. And they obviously do not lie in the European Union or Great Britain. From the UK, we have already forgotten when the last time came positive news or macroeconomic data. Which, in principle, is not surprising in times of global crisis and epidemic. However, even when the economies of all countries of the world are contracting, and the epidemic is affecting the inhabitants of these countries, for some reason, Britain is in first place in the number of COVID-19 related deaths in Europe, as well as the one with the most number of cases of diseases. A second wave of a pandemic is possible in Britain. Thus, even in a situation where all countries of the world are experiencing serious problems, Britain is even more serious. And if it were not for the unexpected and completely discouraging story in the United States, the pound would now fall back to the March 23 lows. However, instead, the British currency is growing and already approaching the highs of April 14 and April 30, which almost coincide at a price level of 1.2647. Actually, only about 100 points remain until this level is reached. We believe that it is around this level that the fate of the pound will be decided in the coming weeks. If traders show their strength and overcome this level, then the upward movement may continue with renewed vigor, but its duration will depend on the current circumstances on how quickly it will be possible to suppress rebellions and riots in America. In case the pair's quotes rebound from the 1.2647 level, bears can return to the market and recall that the economic situation in Britain (the most important and significant for traders) is no better than in the US, which means there are no particularly good reasons for long-term purchases of the British no pound. Well, if a new chunk of information about the failure of the next round of Brussels-London negotiations arrives in June, it can also significantly reduce the attractiveness of the pound in the eyes of traders.

Recommendations for EUR/USD:

For long positions:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, the current targets for open buy orders are now levels 1.1205 and 1.1312. You are advised to manually close longs when the price rebounds from any target. The MACD indicator may now give false signals about the beginning of a correction, since the upward movement is practically recoilless.

For short positions:

Orders for sale can be opened no earlier than consolidating the price below the critical line with the first target support level of 1.0931. However, in this case, trading for a fall is recommended in small lots.

Recommendations for GBP/USD:

For long positions:

The pound/dollar is also continuing its upward movement. Thus, it is also advised to stay in purchases with targets of 1.2620 and 1.2664 until a rebound from any target occurs or the MACD indicator turns down when the price drops in parallel.

For short positions:

It is recommended that sales of the GBP/USD pair be considered with a target of 1.2299 and Senkou Span B line not before consolidating quotes under the Kijun-sen line, which is not expected in the near future.

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Spain Unemployment Rises In May

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Corrected fourth para

Spain's unemployment increased in May but the monthly increase was much smaller than that reported in April and March, as restrictions imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus, started to ease.

The number of registered unemployed increased 26,573 in May from the previous month, data from the Ministry of Labor, Migration and Social Security revealed on Tuesday. The overall unemployment totaled 3.857 million in May.

In April, unemployment had surged 282,891 and by 302,265 in March.

In May, unemployment decreased by 23,717 in construction and by 262 in industry. In the service sector, unemployment surged 40,784 and by 710 in agriculture.

Data showed that unemployment among youth aged below 25, increased by 7,752 in May from the previous month.


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Spain Unemployment Rises In May

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Spain's unemployment increased in May but the monthly increase was much smaller than that reported in April and March, as restrictions imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus, started to ease.

The number of registered unemployed increased 26,573 in May from the previous month, data from the Ministry of Labor, Migration and Social Security revealed on Tuesday. The overall unemployment totaled 3.857 million in May.

In April, unemployment had surged 282,891 and by 302,265 in March.

In April, unemployment decreased by 23,717 in construction and by 262 in industry. In the service sector, unemployment surged 40,784 and by 710 in agriculture.

Data showed that unemployment among youth aged below 25, increased by 7,752 from the previous month.


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Hungary Trade Surplus Narrows; Producer Price Inflation Slows

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Hungary's trade surplus narrowed more than initially estimated in March, final data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office showed on Tuesday.

The trade surplus decreased to EUR 301 million in March from EUR 644 million in last year. According to the initial estimate, the trade surplus was EUR 436 million.

Exports fell a working-day adjusted 10.6 percent year-on-year in March, in contrast to a 1.3 percent increase in February. According to the initial estimate, exports fell 7.3 percent.

Imports decreased 4.4 percent annually in March, reversing a 2.5 percent rise in the preceding month. In the initial estimate, imports fell 5.5 percent.

Separate data from the statistical office showed that the producer prices rose 3.7 percent year-on-year in April, after a 4.3 percent increase in March. Inflation eased to the lowest since December last year, when it was 2.4 percent.

The development of prices was influenced by economic trends having changed owing to the coronavirus epidemic, their impact was felt in money and commodity markets, the agency said.


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UK House Prices Drop At Fastest Pace Since 2009; Mortgage Approvals Plunge

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

UK house prices declined the most since 2009 as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic filtered through the property market in May, data from the Nationwide Building Society showed Tuesday.

Elsewhere, data from the Bank of England showed that households repaid the highest amount of consumer credit on record in April and mortgage approvals plunged to a historic low as government restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus, or Covid-19, dampened housing activity.

House prices fell 1.7 percent month-on-month in May, in contrast to a 0.9 percent rise in April. This was the biggest decrease since February 2009. Economists had forecast a decline of 1 percent.

Annual growth in house prices eased to 1.8 percent in May from 3.7 percent in April. This was also weaker than the economists' forecast of 2.8 percent.

Housing market activity has slowed sharply as a result of the measures implemented to control the spread of the virus, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said.

The economist added that the medium-term outlook for the housing market remains highly uncertain, where much will depend on the performance of the wider economy.

According to BoE, households repaid GBP 7.4 billion of consumer credit in April, the largest net repayment since the series began.

The number of mortgage approvals decreased sharply to 15,848 in April from 56,136 in March. This was the lowest on record. Approvals were forecast to fall to 23,780.

Overall lending to individuals declined GBP 6.9 billion versus GBP 1 billion rise in March. On a yearly basis, lending grew 2.8 percent, weaker than the 3.6 percent rise in March.

Within total lending, secured lending increased GBP 0.3 billion after rising GBP 4.8 billion a month ago. The annual growth came in at 3.3 percent.

Consumer credit declined GBP 7.4 billion versus a fall of GBP 3.8 billion in the previous month, data showed.

Given the weak economy and uncertainty, Hansen Lu, an economist at Capital Economics said the recovery in lending is set to be fairly gradual.


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Indonesia Inflation Slows In May

Trading 02 juin 2020 Commentaire »

Indonesia's consumer price inflation slowed in May, data from the statistics bureau showed on Tuesday.

Consumer prices climbed 2.19 percent year-on-year in May, following a 2.67 percent increase in April. Economists had expected a 2.7 percent rise.

The latest inflation was mainly driven by an increase in prices of goods including clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity and household appliances.

Prices also increased in health, transportation, information, communication and financial services, recreation, sports, and culture, food and beverage and restaurant, and the personal care and other services. Core inflation was 2.65 percent in May versus 2.7 percent in April.


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