*India PM Modi Announces $266 Bln Economic Support Package

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

India PM Modi Announces $266 Bln Economic Support Package


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India Manufacturing Output Logs Massive Fall In March

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

India's manufacturing output fell massively in March, when the country started its lockdown in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic. Manufacturing output crashed 20.6 percent year-on-year in March. Mining production was unchanged, while electricity output dropped 6.8 percent. Industrial output, which the three sectors, dropped 16.7 percent. Economists had forecast an 8.7 percent fall. During the financial year April 2019-March 2020, industrial production decreased 0.7 percent from the previous year.

Manufacturing conditions deteriorated at a record pace in April, as nationwide lockdown led to business closures, survey results from IHS Markit showed earlier this month. The government did not release the headline consumer price inflation data for April due to insufficient data during the lockdown. The data was scheduled for release on Tuesday.


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*IMF's Georgieva: Global Growth Forecasts 'Very Likely' To Be Cut Further

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

IMF's Georgieva: Global Growth Forecasts 'Very Likely' To Be Cut Further


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UK Chancellor Sunak Extends Job Retention Scheme Till October

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak extended the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which was devised to protect jobs during the socio-economic crisis caused by Covid-19, till the end of October.

The chancellor announced on Tuesday that workers will continue to receive 80 percent of their current salary, upto GBP 2,500, under the furlough scheme. Furloughed workers are expected to return to work part-time from the start of August and employers are asked to pay a percentage towards their salaries.

The employer payments will substitute the contribution the government is currently making, ensuring that staff continue to receive 80 percent of their salary.

"Our Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme has protected millions of jobs and businesses across the UK during the outbreak - and I've been clear that I want to avoid a cliff edge and get people back to work in a measured way," Sunak said.

"This extension and the changes we are making to the scheme will give flexibility to businesses while protecting the livelihoods of the British people and our future economic prospects."

Official figures released on Tuesday showed that the job retention scheme protected 7.5 million workers and almost 1 million businesses, the chancellor said. The government expects to add more flexibility to the scheme from the start of August. Further, official figures showed that businesses benefited from over GBP 14 billion in loans and guarantees to support their cashflow during the crisis. This includes 268,000 Bounce Back Loans worth GBP 8.3 billion, 36,000 loans worth over GBP 6 billion through the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme, and GBP 359 million through the Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme, the HM Treasury said. Groups representing UK businesses such as FSB, BCC and CBI welcome the extension of the Job Retention Scheme.


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*UK Chancellor Extends Job Retention Scheme Till October

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

UK Chancellor Extends Job Retention Scheme Till October


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U.S. Dollar Drops On Improved Risk Sentiment

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar fell against its major rivals in the European session on Tuesday on safe-haven status, as investors focused on upbeat earnings reports and a phased reopening of New York State on Friday.

Governor Andrew Cuomo announced on Monday that certain parts of the state will be permitted to resume business operations later this week, including construction and retail sectors.

New York will loosen restrictions on some low-risk businesses, which include drive-in theaters and certain recreational activities.

Consumer prices in the U.S. decreased in line with economist estimates in the month of April, according to a report by the Labor Department.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index slid by 0.8 percent in April after falling by 0.4 percent in March.

The drop by the index, which matched economist estimates, reflects the largest monthly decline since December of 2008.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices fell by 0.4 percent in April after edging down by 0.1 percent in March. Economists had expected core prices to dip by 0.2 percent.

Investors await speech by Philadelphia President Patrick Harker about the economic impact of COVID-19 at the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, in Wilmington, due at 10:00 am ET.

Fed Governor Randal Quarles will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on supervision and regulation at the same time.

The greenback appreciated against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on safe-haven status, as fears of a second wave of virus infections intensified after the fresh rise in cases in China and South Korea.

The greenback weakened to 1.2378 against the pound, after rising to 1.2287 at 8:30 pm ET. Immediate support for the greenback is found around the 1.25 level.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said that the central bank is likely to consider more monetary easing in future after weighing the side-effects of negative interest rates, to help the UK economy recover from the historic shock dealt by the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic.

The Monetary Policy Committee is "certainly prepared to do what is necessary" despite downside risks, Broadbent told CNBC in an interview.

The greenback fell to a 4-day low of 1.0865 against the euro, down from a 5-day high of 1.0784 set in the previous session. The greenback may locate support around the 1.10 level. The greenback pulled back to 107.31 against the yen, after having appreciated to 107.69 at 6:30 pm ET. If the greenback slides further, 105.00 is likely seen as its next support level.

Preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's leading index fell to the lowest level in more than ten-and-a-half years in March.

The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, fell to 83.8 in March from 91.9 in February.

The greenback eased off to 0.6536 against the aussie, 0.6124 against the kiwi and 1.3972 against the loonie, from 5-day highs of 0.6432, 0.6041 and 1.4065, respectively hit in the Asian session. The greenback is likely to challenge support around 0.70 against the aussie, 0.64 against the kiwi and 1.33 against the loonie.

The USD/CHF pair logged a weekly low of 0.9666, compared to the Asian session's 5-day high of 0.9750. Further downtrend may take the greenback to a support around the 0.94 region.

The U.S. monthly budget statement for April is set for release in the New York session.


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U.S. Consumer Prices Decrease 0.8% In April, Core Prices Show Record Drop

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Consumer prices in the U.S. decreased in line with economist estimates in the month of April, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index slid by 0.8 percent in April after falling by 0.4 percent in March.

The drop by the index, which matched economist estimates, reflects the largest monthly decline since December of 2008.

Gasoline prices led the way lower, plummeting by 20.6 percent in April after tumbling by 10.5 percent in the previous month.

The nosedive in gasoline prices contributed to another steep drop in energy prices, which plunged by 10.1 percent in April after slumping by 5.8 percent in March. Energy prices saw their largest monthly decrease since November of 2008.

However, the collapse in energy prices was partly offset by a 1.5 percent spike in food prices, with prices for food at home soaring by 2.6 percent to record the biggest monthly increase since February of 1974.

Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the jump in prices for food at home "reflects the big rise in demand for groceries, as well as virus-related supply chain disruptions, especially at meat processing plants."

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices fell by 0.4 percent in April after edging down by 0.1 percent in March. Economists had expected core prices to dip by 0.2 percent.

The drop in core prices was the biggest on record dating back to 1957 and reflected sharply lower prices for apparel, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and lodging away from home.

Compared to the same month a year ago, consumer prices in April were up by just 0.3 percent, reflecting the slowest annual growth since October of 2015.

The annual rate of growth on core consumer prices also slowed to 1.4 percent in April from 2.1 percent in March, showing the smallest increase since April of 2011.

"With demand still exceptionally weak, we expect further declines in the coming months," said Pearce. "But further ahead, as demand begins to recover while supply for some goods and services remains limited by social distancing regulations, the virus impact could tilt from being deflationary to inflationary."

On Wednesday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release a separate report on producer prices in the month of April.

Producer prices are expected to drop by 0.5 percent in April after dipping by 0.2 percent in March, while core producer prices are expected to come in unchanged after inching up by 0.2 percent.


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U.S. Consumer Prices Decrease In Line With Estimates In April

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Consumer prices in the U.S. decreased in line with economist estimates in the month of April, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index slid by 0.8 percent in April after falling by 0.4 percent in March.

The drop by the index, which matched economist estimates, reflects the largest monthly decline since December of 2008.

Gasoline prices led the way lower, plummeting by 20.6 percent, although the nosedive was partly offset by a sharp increase in food prices.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices fell by 0.4 percent in April after edging down by 0.1 percent in March. Economists had expected core prices to dip by 0.2 percent.


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Dollar Little Changed After U.S. CPI

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

After the release of U.S. CPI for April at 8:30 am ET Tuesday, the greenback changed little against its major rivals.

The greenback was trading at 1.0854 against the euro, 107.37 against the yen, 0.9693 against the franc and 1.2362 against the pound around 8:32 am ET.


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Short-term Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for May 12, 2020.

Trading 12 mai 2020 Commentaire »

Gold price remains inside the trading range of $1,740-$1,670. Price is moving above and below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. In such sideways movements we prefer to focus on the Daily chart. In the 4 hour chart as shown below price has managed to push back above the cloud again. However this is no clear signal unless price breaks above recent high at $1,723.

analytics5ebadc0c9cb51.jpg

In the Daily chart we focus on the kijun-sen which is rising as the major pivot point for the trend and any signal we might get.

analytics5ebadc89463d8.jpg

Trend remains bullish. The kijun-sen is at $1,678, very close to the lower trading range boundary. Breaking below it will open the way for a move towards $1,630 and the Kumo (cloud). Resistance is at $1,720-25 area. Breaking above it will open the way for new 2020 highs. Although in previous posts we noted that we prefer to be neutral or bearish Gold around $1,740, at this point if we see a move above $1,725 it could be a nice bullish short-term opportunity. But only for the very short-term. Weekly bearish divergence is a big warning sign not to be forgotten. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com