Elliott wave analysis on GBPUSD

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

GBPUSD is bouncing strongly above 1.30 breaking the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has reversed off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the first leg up and according to our analysis there are many chances that the corrective wave C and the entire pull back from 1.35 is over.

Since mid-December price has showed us that a corrective phase was starting and that is why in our analysis we noted that a three wave correction should follow. Price has now reached the area of wave 4 of lesser degree and the 50% retracement. Price is bouncing higher.

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We have enough evidence to say that there are many chances the entire correction is over and the next leg up has started. What are our targets now? If price continues to move with higher highs and higher lows in an impulsive pattern, we should expect GBPUSD to reach 1.37 first and then 1.43.

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GBPUSD has support at 1.2720. Next resistance is at 1.3210. Breaking and staying above it will increase chances dramatically for a move towards 1.37. Concluding we have short-term reversal signals promoting our bullish wave scenario for a move towards 1.37 at least.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Drop More Than Expected In January

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

Wholesale inventories in the U.S. dropped more than anticipated in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday.

The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories fell by 0.4 percent in January after slipping by a revised 0.3 percent in December.

Economists had expected wholesale inventories to edge down by 0.2 percent, matching the dip originally reported for the previous month.

The bigger than expected decrease in wholesale inventories came as inventories of durable and non-durable goods slid by 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, the report said wholesale sales surged up by 1.6 percent in January after dipping by 0.2 percent in December.

Sales of durable and non-durable goods both showed significant increases, jumping by 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

With sale spiking and inventories falling, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers dropped to 1.33 in January from 1.36 in December.


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*U.S. Wholesale Inventories Drop 0.4% In January

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Drop 0.4% In January


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Dollar Muted After Non-farm Payrolls Data

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

After exhibiting weakness due to spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. during the European session on Friday, the dollar was unmoved by the U.S. non-farm payrolls for February.

Data from the Labor Department showed that the U.S. employment rose much more than expected in the month of February.

The Labor Department said employment surged up by 273,000 jobs in February, matching the upwardly revised spike in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 175,000 jobs compared to the jump of 225,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

With the much stronger than expected job growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 3.5 percent in February from 3.6 percent in January. The rate had been expected to remain unchanged.

Data from the Commerce Department showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in the month of January, as the value of imports fell by more than the value of exports.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $45.3 billion in January from a revised $48.6 billion in December.

The dollar has been under pressure in the last couple of sessions on expectation of further interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the March meeting.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that the coronavirus outbreak posed risks to the U.S. economy and the central bank is prepared to act as needed.

In a separate event, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that the Fed could cut rates further if the impact of the coronavirus is worse than expected.

Investors now expect the Fed to reduce the benchmark rate by at least another quarter point at its meeting on March 17-18.

The greenback fell alongside stocks in the previous session, as the spread of a new Coronavirus heightened worries over a prolonged world economic slowdown.

The greenback dropped to more than a 2-week low of 1.3026 against the pound and held steady thereafter. The pound-greenback pair had finished yesterday's trading session at 1.2947.

Data from the Lloyds Bank subsidiary Halifax and IHS Markit showed that UK house prices increased at a slower pace in February.

House prices increased 0.3 percent month-on-month in February, slightly slower than the 0.4 percent rise seen in January but faster than the expected increase of 0.2 percent.

The greenback depreciated to more than an 8-month low of 1.1341 against the euro and moved sideways thereafter. The pair had closed Thursday's deals at 1.1237.

Data from Destatis showed that Germany's factory orders grew more than expected in January driven by higher demand in aircraft and mechanical engineering.

Factory orders expanded 5.5 percent on a monthly basis, reversing a 2.1 percent decrease in December. Orders were forecast to grow moderately by 1.2 percent.

The greenback that declined to more than a 6-month low of 104.99 against the yen at 5:15 am ET held steady in subsequent deals. The pair was worth 106.16 when it ended deals on Thursday.

Preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's leading index fell in January after rising in the previous month.

The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, fell to 90.3 in January from 91.0 in December. Economists had expected a score of 91.3. A similar reading was seen in November 2009.

The greenback slipped to a 2-year low of 0.9338 against the franc at 8:15 am ET and has stabilized afterwards. At Thursday's close, the pair was valued at 0.9449.

Looking ahead, Canada Ivey PMI for February, U.S. consumer credit and wholesale sales for January will be out in the New York session.


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U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows More Than Expected To $45.3 Billion In January

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in the month of January, as the value of imports fell by more than the value of exports.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $45.3 billion in January from a revised $48.6 billion in December.

Economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $46.1 billion from the $48.9 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The narrower deficit came as the value of imports tumbled by 1.6 percent to $253.9 billion in January after spiking by 2.6 percent to $258.1 billion in December.

The sharp pullback in imports primarily reflected a steep drop in imports of industrial supplies and materials, including non-monetary gold.

Meanwhile, the report said the value of exports fell by 0.4 percent to $208.6 billion in January after climbing by 0.9 percent to $209.5 billion in December.

Notable decreases in exports of civilian aircraft and crude oil were partly offset by a jump in exports of automotive vehicles, parts and engines.

The Commerce Department also said the goods deficit narrowed to $67.0 billion in January from $69.7 billion in December, while the services surplus rose to $21.7 billion from $21.0 billion.


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Riksbank Says Too Early To Judge Covid19 Economic Impact

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

Sweden's central bank said on Friday that it is too early to judge the size of the damage that the coronavirus, or COVID19, can have on the economy and it stands ready to take appropriate action, when needed.

"It is still too early to draw any definitive conclusions regarding the size of the effects on the economy," the Riksbank said in a statement. "It depends on how long the situation lasts and how it develops both internationally and in Sweden."

The central bank said it is in constant contact with stability-focused authorities and the finance ministry, and is talking to companies and trade associations.

"Within our remit of safeguarding financial stability and the inflation target, we are as always prepared to take appropriate action should the need arise," the bank said.


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U.S. Employment Spikes By 273,000 Jobs In February, Much More Than Expected

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

Employment in the U.S. soared by much more than expected in the month of February, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The Labor Department said employment surged up by 273,000 jobs in February, matching the upwardly revised spike in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 175,000 jobs compared to the jump of 225,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The much stronger than expected job growth reflected notable job gains in a variety of sectors, including health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the strong job growth confirms the U.S. economy was in very good shape before the coronavirus hit.

"The unseasonably warm weather appears to have played a role again - with construction employment increasing by 42,000 and food services employment up by 53,000," Ashworth said.

He added, "At first glance, the 45,000 gain in government employment suggests that Census hiring also played a big role, but most of those gains were in state education, with the Census accounting for only 7,000."

The report also said unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 3.5 percent in February from 3.6 percent in January. The unemployment rate had been expected to remain unchanged.

The drop in the unemployment rate came as the household survey measure of employment increased by 45,000 persons, while the labor force shrank by 60,000 persons.

The Labor Department said average hourly employee earnings rose $0.09 or 0.3 percent to $28.53 in February. Annual wage growth slowed to 3.0 percent in February from 3.1 percent in January.


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U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows More Than Expected In January

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in the month of January, as the value of imports fell by more than the value of exports.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $45.3 billion in January from a revised $48.6 billion in December.

Economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $46.1 billion from the $48.9 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The narrower deficit came as the value of imports tumbled by 1.6 percent to $253.9 billion, while the value of exports fell by 0.4 percent to $208.6 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Employment Spikes Much More Than Expected In February

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

Employment in the U.S. soared by much more than expected in the month of February, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The Labor Department said employment surged up by 273,000 jobs in February, matching the upwardly revised spike in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 175,000 jobs compared to the jump of 225,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

With the much stronger than expected job growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 3.5 percent in February from 3.6 percent in January. The rate had been expected to remain unchanged.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Little Changed After U.S. Jobs Data

Trading 06 mar 2020 Commentaire »

Following the release of the U.S. jobs report for February and trade data for January at 8:30 am ET Friday, the greenback changed little against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 105.13 against the yen, 1.1326 against the euro, 1.3004 against the pound and 0.9355 against the franc around 8:32 am ET.


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