India Economic Growth Slowest In Over 6 Years

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

India's economy grew at the slowest pace in more than six years during the three months to December and the outlook does not look promising in the near term amid the coronavirus spreading across the world.

Gross domestic product grew 4.7 percent in the October to December quarter, official data showed Friday. The quarterly growth was largely supported by increased government spending.

The July to September quarter growth figure was significantly revised up to 5.1 percent from 4.5 percent reported earlier. The growth rate for the April to March quarter was also revised higher to 5.6 percent from 5 percent. The statistics ministry reiterated that the full year growth for the fiscal year 2019-20 is estimated at 5.0 percent, in line with the first advance estimate, versus 6.1 percent in 2018-19.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India projected the GDP growth for 2020-21 at 6.0 percent versus the government's forecast of 6-6.5 percent.

The bank expects private consumption to rise, especially in rural areas, to recover on the back of improved harvest prospects.

In January, the International Monetary Fund cut the global growth forecasts for this year and next, mainly due to the weaker-than-expected expansion in India.

The global lender slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 by 1.2 percentage point to 5.8 percent, and the outlook for next year was lowered by 0.9 percentage point to 6.5 percent. Growth was estimated at 4.8 percent in 2019.

The improvement in growth is expected to be supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as subdued oil prices, the IMF said.


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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Slightly More Than Initially Estimated

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved by slightly more than initially estimated in the month of February, revised data from the University of Michigan revealed on Friday.

The consumer sentiment index for February was upwardly revised to 101.0 from the preliminary reading of 100.9. Economists had expected the index to be unrevised.

With the unexpected upward revision, the consumer sentiment index for February is a little further above the final January reading of 99.8.

Just 8 percent of consumers mentioned the coronavirus in February as a whole, although mentions spiked to 20 percent amid the sell-off on Wall Street on Monday and Tuesday, the last days of the February survey.

"While too few cases were conducted to attach any statistical significance to the findings, it is nonetheless true that the domestic spread of the virus could have a significant impact on consumer spending," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

He added, "Importantly, the early indications suggested only a very modest impact as the Sentiment Index among consumers who mentioned the coronavirus was still quite high (just over 90.0)."

The report said the index of consumer expectations climbed to 92.1 in February from 90.5 in January and the current economic conditions index inched up to 114.8 from 114.4.

On the inflation front, one-year inflation expectations edged down to 2.4 percent in February from 2.5 percent in January, while five-year inflation expectations fell to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent.


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Chicago Business Barometer Indicates Modest Contraction In February

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Chicago-area business activity saw only a slight contraction in the month of February, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Friday.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer jumped to 49.0 in February from 42.9 in January, although a reading below 50 still indicates a contraction in regional business activity. Economists had expected the index to rise to 45.9.

The bigger than expected increase by the headline index came as the production index shifted back into expansion, surging up to an eight-month high of 51.0 in February from 42.7 in January.

The new orders also index also showed a significant increase, climbing to a six-month high of 49.1 in February from 41.5 in the previous month.

On the other hand, the report said the employment index slipped to 44.5 in February from 46.9 in January, hitting its lowest level since last July.

MNI Indicators said the prices index also fell to 52.9 in February from 56.1, indicating prices at the factory gate cooled for the second straight month.


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*U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index For February Upwardly Revised To 101.0

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index For February Upwardly Revised To 101.0


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Belgium Economic Growth Steady At 0.4%

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Belgium's economy expanded at a stable rate in the fourth quarter, figures from the National Bank of Belgium showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product grew 0.4 percent from the third quarter, when the economy expanded at the same pace. The economy grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter and stagnated in the first three months of 2019.

Household consumption rose 0.5 percent and their investments increased 1.3 percent. Public expenditure grew 1.1 percent, but its investment expenditure shrunk 7.3 percent.

Business investment rose 0.9 percent. Exports of goods and services climbed 0.6 percent, while imports increased 0.9 percent. Thus, net exports made a negative contribution of -0.2 percentage points to economic growth.

On a year-on-year basis, GDP rose 1.2 percent following a 1.6 percent in the previous three months. In 2019, the economy grew 1.4 percent versus 1.5 percent expansion in the previous year.


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*Chicago Business Barometer Jumps To 49.0 In February

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Chicago Business Barometer Jumps To 49.0 In February


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U.S. Income Rises More Than Expected But Spending Growth Misses Estimates

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

While the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing U.S. personal income increased by much more than expected in the month of January, the report also showed a smaller than expected uptick in personal spending.

The report said personal income climbed by 0.6 percent in January after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in December.

Economists had expected personal income to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, also increased by 0.6 percent in January after edging up by 0.1 percent in December.

The report said real disposable income, which is adjusted to remove price changes, advanced by 0.5 percent in January after dipping by 0.1 percent in December.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said personal spending rose by 0.2 percent in January after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in December.

Personal spending had been expected to rise by 0.3 percent, matching the increase originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding price changes, personal spending inched up by just 0.1 percent for the second consecutive month.

"The 0.6% m/m rise in personal income was more encouraging and, with the labor market seemingly still in strong shape, ordinarily that would be a good reason to expect consumption growth to accelerate over the next few months," said Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

"But the likely hit to consumer confidence from virus fears and the stock market plunge poses a clear downside risk to that assumption," he added. "A widespread epidemic developing in the US would risk a severe decline in retail spending."

With income rising by much more than spending, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income jumped to 7.9 percent in January from 7.5 percent in December.

A reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve showed the annual rate of core consumer price growth ticked up to 1.6 percent in January from 1.5 percent in December.


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U.S. Personal Income Climbs More Than Expected In January

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

While the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing U.S. personal income increased by much more than expected in the month of January, the report also showed a smaller than expected uptick in personal spending.

The report said personal income climbed by 0.6 percent in January after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in December.

Economists had expected personal spending to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said personal spending rose by 0.2 percent in January after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in December.

Personal spending had been expected to rise by 0.3 percent, matching the increase originally reported for the previous month.


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Loonie Rises After Canada GDP Data

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Canada GDP data for December has been released at 8:30 am ET Friday. After the data, the loonie rose against its major rivals.

The loonie was trading at 1.3440 against the greenback, 80.84 against the yen, 1.4748 against the euro and 0.8744 against the aussie around 8:35 am ET.


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Dollar Little Changed After Personal Income And Spending

Trading 28 fév 2020 Commentaire »

The personal income and spending data for January has been released at 8:30 am ET Friday. After the data, the greenback changed little against its major rivals.

The greenback was trading at 1.0975 against the euro, 108.65 against the yen, 0.9662 against the franc and 1.2869 against the pound around 8:35 am ET.


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