*Austria Feb Manufacturing PMI 50.2 Vs. 49.2 In January

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

Austria Feb Manufacturing PMI 50.2 Vs. 49.2 In January


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Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 26. Markets are waiting for data on US GDP. The euro and the pound are consolidating

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

EUR/USD

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On February 25, the EUR/USD pair gained about 25 basis points and continued to move away from the previously reached lows in the framework of the expected wave 4 or a new upward trend section. At the moment, the correction is 38.2% of the size of wave 3 or C. Thus, an unsuccessful attempt to break this mark may cause the instrument to resume its decline within the expected wave 5 with targets located much lower than the figure 8.

Fundamental component:

The news background for the EUR/USD instrument on February 25 was very poor. There is still no important news, all reports are absolutely uninteresting. Yesterday, Germany's GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 was released – the first report at the beginning of the week that was worth paying attention to. However, its actual value coincided with the expectations of the markets, so any reaction has not followed. All the more so because now the wave markup is uncompromising – either the correction wave 4 or the correction set of waves. Thus, in almost any case, the instrument should have been raised even without any news background.

Today, on February 26, it is better not to talk about the news background for the euro/Dollar instrument at all. The most important report of the day is "new home sales" in the US. It is unlikely that the markets will pay attention to this data. Most likely, the construction of the correction wave will continue. Only tomorrow, the news may affect the movement of the instrument and its amplitude, as on February 27, data on orders for long-term goods in America will be released, as well as data on GDP for the fourth quarter. The tool for building wave 5 needs strong data from America. Since there will be little news on Friday, tomorrow will be somewhat decisive for the euro and the dollar.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair have presumably completed the construction of a descending set of waves. Based on the current wave markup, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% or 50.0% Fibonacci levels may lead to the beginning of wave 5 construction. Thus, I recommend waiting for such an attempt and the MACD "down" signal and then selling the instrument again with targets around 8 points or lower.

GBP/USD

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The GBP/USD pair gained about 80 basis points on February 25, which led to additions to the current wave markup. Now the assumed wave 2 or b has taken the form of an oblique triangle with 5 waves inside it. If this assumption is correct, then after the last wave is completed, the price decline will resume within the wave 3 or C with targets located around 25 points and below.

Fundamental component:

The news background for the GBP/USD instrument was again absent on Tuesday. No economic reports, no more or less important news from Britain. Thus, the pound has to build intricate wave structures in order to somehow play out such a news background. Markets are still waiting for the start of negotiations between Britain-EU and Britain-US to assess the likelihood of trade deals in 2020. It is on these deals that the future of the UK, its economy and the prospects for the British currency depend. So far, nothing new can be said even about Britain's economic prospects, since all statistics remain contradictory and certainly do not indicate a recovery in the economy. In general, the markets can only wait. Wait for economic reports, wait for news about the negotiations.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound/dollar tool has complicated the current wave markup, which has now become much more extended. Thus, I recommend waiting for a new "down" signal from the MACD near the 23.6% Fibonacci level and selling the instrument with targets located near the mark of 1.2767, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci.

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*Swiss Franc Climbs To 3-week High Of 0.9729 Against U.S. Dollar

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

Swiss Franc Climbs To 3-week High Of 0.9729 Against U.S. Dollar


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February 26, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 30, a bearish ABC reversal pattern was initiated around 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) just before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1100 (In the meanwhile, the EURUSD pair was losing much of its bearish momentum).

One more bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located. That's why, quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1100 then 1.1035 which failed to provide enough bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair.

Further bearish decline took place towards 1.1000 where the pair looked quite oversold around the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel where significant bullish rejection was able to push the pair back towards the nearest SUPPLY levels around 1.1080-1.1100 (confluence of supply levels (including the upper limit of the channel).

Since then, the pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel until last week when bearish decline went further below 1.0950 and 1.0910 (Fibonacci Expansion levels 78.6% and 100%) establishing a new low around 1.0790.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair looks quite oversold after such a long bearish decline and if bullish recovery is expressed above 1.0845-1.0860, further bullish advancement would be expected towards 1.0910 then 1.0950.

Intraday traders were advised to look for signs of bullish recovery around the price levels of (1.0790) as a valid intraday BUY signal aiming towards 1.0910 (the nearest broken demand-level).

By the end of Last week, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around 1.0790 leading to the current bullish movement.

Further bullish advancement will probably pursue as high as the price level of 1.0910 provided that a quick bullish breakout above 1.0870 is achieved.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.0830 (recent low) may enable more bearish decline towards new historical lows around 1.0755 and even 1.0700.

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*Pound Slides To Fresh 2-week Low Of 1.2610 Against Franc

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

Pound Slides To Fresh 2-week Low Of 1.2610 Against Franc


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February 26, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

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On the period between December 18th - 23rd, bearish breakout below the depicted previous bullish channel followed by transient bearish movement below 1.3000 were demonstrated on the H4 chart.

However, immediate bullish recovery (around 1.2900) brought the pair back above 1.3000.

Bullish breakout above 1.3000 allowed the mentioned Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where the current wide-ranged movement channel was established between (1.3200-1.2980).

Recent temporary bearish breakdown below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2890 (the lower limit of the movement channe) where evident bullish rejection was manifested on February 10.

Last week, temporary bullish breakout above 1.3000 has been expressed until last Wednesday when another bearish decline below 1.3000 brought the GBPUSD pair back towards the lower limit of the channel @ 1.2870 -1.2850 where the current episode of bullish recovery was initiated.

As expected, the current bullish pullback managed to pursue towards the price zone of 1.2980-1.3000 which is offering temporary bearish rejection.

Although the Intermediate-term technical outlook remains bearish below the price level of 1.3000 (Supply-Zone), any bullish breakout above 1.3000 should be waited as a valid Intraday BUY entry.

If so, further bullish advancement will be demonstrated towards the price levels of 1.3070 and 1.3150.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.2980-1.3000 will probably push the GBP/USD pair back towards 1.2870-1.2850 for another retesting.

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*Pound Dips To 1.2953 Against Dollar

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

Pound Dips To 1.2953 Against Dollar


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*Pound Weaken To 2-day Lows Of 0.8406 Vs Euro, 142.74 Vs Yen

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

Pound Weaken To 2-day Lows Of 0.8406 Vs Euro, 142.74 Vs Yen


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Australian, New Zealand Dollars Drop On Coronavirus Fears

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped against their major counterparts on Tuesday, after U.S. health authorities warned of a wider spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. and asked its citizens to prepare for the outbreak.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned on Tuesday that the coronavirus was "a rapidly escalating epidemic."

Coronavirus cases rose by 169 in South Korea, taking the overall tally to 1,146.

An American soldier stationed in South Korea became the first service member to test positive for the coronavirus, according to a U.S. Forces Korea statement. He is currently self-quarantined at his off-base residence.

The virus has killed 2,715 people and infected over 78,000 in China. In the rest of the world, there have been more than 40 deaths and 2,700 cases.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the total value of construction work done in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2019, coming in at A$49.773 billion. That missed forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 0.4 percent decline in the three months prior.

The aussie declined to 0.6569 against the greenback, its weakest level since March 2009. The aussie is likely to test support around the 0.63 region.

The aussie fell to a 2-day low of 0.8728 against the loonie and a fresh 3-week low of 1.6550 against the euro, off its early highs of 0.8776 and 1.6445, respectively. The aussie is poised to find support around 0.86 against the loonie and 1.68 against the euro.

Pulling away from an early 2-day high of 1.0457 versus the kiwi, the aussie edged down to 1.0411. On the downside, 1.03 is seen as the next support level for the aussie.

The aussie was down at 72.38 against the yen, a level unseen since October 2019. The aussie is seen facing support around the 70.5 region.

The kiwi depreciated to a 2-day low of 0.6305 against the greenback and more than a 3-month low of 1.7251 against the euro, from its early highs of 0.6322 and 1.7193, respectively. Next likely support for the kiwi is seen around 0.62 against the greenback and 1.76 against the euro.

The kiwi fell back to 69.50 versus the yen, not far from more than a 3-month low of 69.47 set in early deals. If the kiwi falls further, 67.00 is likely seen as its next support level.

Looking ahead, at 10:00 am ET, U.S. new home sales data for January is scheduled for release.


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GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 26. The pound is playing last year’s games. The bears aimed at 1.2930

Trading 26 Fév 2020 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

The British pound continues its games that we saw last year amid the uncertainty associated with Brexit. Today, the same thing is repeated. It happens before the start of important negotiations on trade between the EU and the UK. At the moment, buyers can not yet oppose the sellers, since the breakdown of the level of 1.2970 quickly pushed the pound to the support of 1.2930, the breakdown of which can lead to a reversal of the upward trend formed on February 20. Only the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.2930 will signal the opening of long positions since at the first test of this level, the rapid rebound up did not occur. It is best to open long positions immediately on the test from the minimum around 1.2889. An important task for buyers is also to return the resistance to 1.2970, which will keep the pair in an upward trend and lead to an update of the level of 1.3006, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

The bears started to act more actively after the breakdown of the support of 1.2970, which quickly pushed the pound to the minimum of 1.2930, where the lower border of the ascending channel passes. An important task for the second half of the day will be to consolidate below this range, which will provide the bears with a direct path to the lows of 1.2889 and 1.2851, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of an upward correction of GBP/USD after a weak report on housing sales in the primary US market, short positions can be returned to a false breakdown from the resistance of 1.2970 or sell the pound immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.3006. Any news related to trade negotiations and fiscal stimulus will have a serious impact on the market, as traders react very impulsively to these events.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is already below the 30 and 50 daily averages, the breakdown of which has increased the pressure on the pound, which indicates a likely change in the trend in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the lower border of the indicator indicates large sales of the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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