Hungary Holds Rate Unchanged Again

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Hungary's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Tuesday, as expected, citing volatile inflation.

The Monetary Council kept the base rate unchanged at 0.90 percent, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank said in a statement.

The previous change in the rate was a 15 basis points cut in May 2016.

The overnight central bank deposit rate was left unchanged at -0.05 percent. In March, it was cut by 10 basis points.

The one-week collateralized loan rate was retained at 0.90 percent.

The monetary policy stance will continue to be accommodative, economic agents' financing costs will be favourable, the bank said in a statement. "A dichotomy remains between the factors determining likely developments in inflation," the MNB said.

"Buoyant domestic demand is boosting, while persistently muted external activity is restraining the pace of inflation."


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U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Slightly In February

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumer confidence in the U.S. improved slightly in the month of February.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index inched up to 130.7 in February from a downwardly revised 130.4 in January. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 132.5 from the 131.6 originally reported for the previous month.

The modest increase by the headline index came as the expectations index surged up to 107.8 in February from 101.4 in January.

On the other hand, the report said the present situation index tumbled to 165.1 in February from 173.9 in the previous month.

"Despite the decline in the Present Situation Index, consumers continue to view current conditions quite favorably," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

She added, "Consumers' short-term expectations improved, and when coupled with solid employment growth, should be enough to continue to support spending and economic growth in the near term."

The jump by the expectations index came as the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months rose to 20.4 percent from 18.4 percent, while those expecting conditions will worsen dipped to 7.4 percent from 8.6 percent.

The Conference Board said consumes expecting more jobs in the months ahead edged down to 16.2 percent from 16.5 percent, but those anticipating fewer jobs also slipped to 11.1 percent from 12.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the report said consumers claiming current business conditions are "good" fell to 38.6 percent from 40.0 percent and those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 11.9 percent from 10.4 percent.

Consumers' assessment of the job market also moderated, with those saying jobs are "plentiful" dropping to 44.6 percent from 47.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" rose to 14.8 percent from 11.9 percent.

On Friday, the University of Michigan is scheduled to release its revised reading on consumer sentiment in the month of February.

The consumer sentiment index for February is currently expected to be unrevised from the preliminary reading of 100.9, which was up from the final January reading of 99.8.


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*U.S. Consumer Confidence Index At 130.7 In February

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index At 130.7 In February


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*Hungary Central Bank Holds Rate Unchanged At 0.90% As Expected

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Hungary Central Bank Holds Rate Unchanged At 0.90% As Expected


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Dollar Little Changed Following U.S. Housing Data

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for December have been released at 9:00 am ET Tuesday. The greenback changed little against its major counterparts after these data.

The greenback was trading at 110.59 against the yen, 0.9779 against the franc, 1.0837 against the euro and 1.2967 against the pound around 9:01 am ET.


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*S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Up 2.9% YoY In December

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Up 2.9% YoY In December


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Dollar Steady Ahead Of U.S. Housing Data

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

At 9:00 am ET Tuesday, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for December are due. Ahead of these data, the greenback held steady against its major counterparts.

The greenback was worth 110.61 against the yen, 0.9780 against the franc, 1.0843 against the euro and 1.2974 against the pound at 8:55 am ET.


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Dollar Weakens On Fed Rate Cut Hopes Amid Coronavirus Concerns

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar lost ground against its most major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, as hopes for a Fed rate cut increased on fears that the coronavirus outbreak would dampen economic growth.

The dollar, viewed as a safe-haven asset, initially rose on a jump in new coronavirus infections in China and worldwide.

Former Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota called for a rate cut as early as May, according to a Bloomberg Opinion piece.

"I don't think that the FOMC should wait that long to deal with this clear and pressing danger," Kocherlakota wrote. "I would urge an immediate cut of at least 25 basis points and arguably 50 basis points."

Market participants are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed's policy-setting meeting in June.

The greenback dropped to 0.9768 against the franc, from a high of 0.9805 seen at 8:00 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 0.96 region.

The greenback was marginally down against the yen at 110.55. The pair had finished Monday's deals at 110.69. Further drop in the greenback may see support around the 108.00 level.

Final data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's leading index rose in December as initially estimated.

The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, rose to 91.6 in December from 90.8 in November. This was in line with initial estimate.

The greenback depreciated to a 6-day low of 1.2995 against the pound from yesterday's closing value of 1.2926. If the greenback extends decline, 1.31 is possibly seen as its next support level.

The latest quarterly Distributive Trends Survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed that British retailers plan to raise their investment in the year ahead for the first time in two years.

The balance for investment intentions rose to +26 percent from -38 percent in November, which was the biggest swing since the survey began in 1983.

In contrast, the greenback climbed against the commodity-linked currencies, as improving risk sentiment buoyed the latter.

The U.S. currency gained to 1.3306 against the loonie, 0.6593 against the aussie and 0.6319 against the kiwi, from its early low of 1.3278, 4-day low of 0.6623 and a 5-day low of 0.6358, respectively. The next possible resistance for the greenback is seen around 1.34 against the loonie, 0.63 against the aussie and 0.62 against the kiwi.

The greenback also appreciated against the euro with the pair trading at 1.0833. At Monday's close, the pair was worth 1.0853. On the upside, 1.06 is possibly seen as the next resistance for the greenback.

Data from Destatis showed that the German economy stagnated in the fourth quarter, in line with the initial estimate, as the positive contribution to growth from investment was nullified by foreign trade.

Gross domestic product remained flat sequentially after expanding 0.2 percent in the previous quarter. The statistical office confirmed the flash estimate released on February 14.

Looking ahead, U.S. consumer confidence index for February, S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index for December are due out in the New York session.


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Hong Kong Trade Deficit Widens In January

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Hong Kong's trade deficit increased in January, amid a fall in both exports and imports, data from the Census and Statistics Department showed on Monday.

The trade deficit widened to HK$30.595 billion in January from HK$10.299 billion in the same month last year. In December, the trade deficit was HK$32.497 billion.

Exports fell 22.7 percent annually in January after a 3.3 percent rise in the previous month.

Imports decreased 16.4 percent in January after a 1.9 percent decline in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, exports and imports dropped 23.3 percent and 21.8 percent, respectively, in January.

"Merchandise exports registered a visible year-on-year decline in January 2020, partly distorted by the difference in timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January this year but in early February last year," a government spokesman said.

Hence, it would be more meaningful to analyse the trade figures for January and February combined for a clearer picture of the underlying situation, particularly the impact of the coronavirus infection in the region on external trade performance.

The government expects Hong Kong's merchandise exports to face a very austere external trading environment in the coming few months

"Looking ahead, despite some easing in US-Mainland trade tensions lately, the global economic recovery is still fragile and fraught with uncertainties, the spokesman said.

"Of particular concern is the threat of the novel coronavirus infection, which will heavily weigh on regional production and trading activities."


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Watching wedge pattern in AUDUSD for possible break out

Trading 25 fév 2020 Commentaire »

AUDUSD remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. Price has formed a downward sloping wedge pattern and I believe if see bulls recapture 0.6640 then we should expect more upside towards 0.6740.

analytics5e553c6bcd1fd.png

Red lines - wedge pattern

Green line - bullish divergence

Yellow rectangle - target if resistance breaks

Black rectangle - resistance

AUDUSD is showing reversal warnings. Price is still below resistance and continues to make lower lows even if the RSI does not follow. Price has resistance at 0.6640 and a break above this area would be bullish for AUD. Our target would be near 0.6740, so traders need to be cautious as a trend change could be around the corner.

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