German Investor Confidence Plummets On Coronavirus Concerns

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Germany's economic sentiment logged a steep fall in February as investors increasingly grew concerned about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, results of a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.

The investor confidence indicator slumped to 8.7 from 26.7 in January, survey results from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research revealed. The latest score was the weakest since November, when it was -2.1.

The reading was much worse than the 21.5 economists had expected. The current conditions index of the survey fell to -15.7 from -9.5 in January. Economists had forecast a score of -10.3.

"The feared negative effects of the Coronavirus epidemic in China on world trade have been causing a considerable decline of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany," ZEW President Achim Wambach said. Expectations regarding the development of the export-intensive sectors of the economy have dropped particularly sharply, he noted. Further, the German economy has remained weak at the end of 2019 and at the start of this year. "Both the downward revision of the assessment of the economic situation and the downturn in expectations show clearly that economic development is rather fragile at the moment," Wambach added. The investor confidence index for Eurozone dropped sharply to 10.4 from 25.6 in January. Economists had forecast a reading of 30 for the month. The current conditions index for Eurozone shed 0.4 points to minus 10.3 points. The survey also showed that the indicator reflecting the inflation expectations for the eurozone dropped 13.7 points to 4.7 points.

Germany's economy is set to remain sluggish in the first quarter of 2020, hurt by weak demand for exports and the supply disruptions caused by the coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak in China, Bundesbank said in its latest monthly report, released on Monday.

A pick up in the growth momentum in the biggest euro area economy is unlikely in the first quarter, the bank said. Further, the coronavirus outbreak in China is a fresh risk for the German growth outlook, the bank added. Official figures released last week showed that the German economy stagnated in the final three months of 2019, thanks to slower consumption and weaker exports. In the third quarter, the economy had grown 0.2 percent.

In the full year 2019, the economy grew 0.6 percent, expanding for a tenth year in a row, but the pace of growth was the slowest in six years.


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German Investor Confidence Plummets On Coronavirus Concerns

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Germany's economic sentiment logged a steep fall in February as investors increasingly grew concerned about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, results of a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.

The investor confidence indicator slumped to 8.7 from 26.7 in January, survey results from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research revealed. The latest score was the weakest since November, when it was -2.1.

The reading was much worse than the 21.5 economists had expected. The current conditions index of the survey fell to -15.7 from -9.5 in January. Economists had forecast a score of -10.3.

"The feared negative effects of the Coronavirus epidemic in China on world trade have been causing a considerable decline of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany," ZEW President Achim Wambach said. Expectations regarding the development of the export-intensive sectors of the economy have dropped particularly sharply, he noted. Further, the German economy has remained weak at the end of 2019 and at the start of this year. "Both the downward revision of the assessment of the economic situation and the downturn in expectations show clearly that economic development is rather fragile at the moment," Wambach added. The investor confidence index for Eurozone dropped sharply to 10.4 from 25.6 in January. Economists had forecast a reading of 30 for the month. The current conditions index for Eurozone shed 0.4 points to minus 10.3 points. The survey also showed that the indicator reflecting the inflation expectations for the eurozone dropped 13.7 points to 4.7 points.

Germany's economy is set to remain sluggish in the first quarter of 2020, hurt by weak demand for exports and the supply disruptions caused by the coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak in China, Bundesbank said in its latest monthly report, released on Monday.

A pick up in the growth momentum in the biggest euro area economy is unlikely in the first quarter, the bank said. Further, the coronavirus outbreak in China is a fresh risk for the German growth outlook, the bank added. Official figures released last week showed that the German economy stagnated in the final three months of 2019, thanks to slower consumption and weaker exports. In the third quarter, the economy had grown 0.2 percent.

In the full year 2019, the economy grew 0.6 percent, expanding for a tenth year in a row, but the pace of growth was the slowest in six years.


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*U.S. Housing Market Index Slips To 74 In February

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Housing Market Index Slips To 74 In February


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UK Employment Climbs To New Record, Jobless Rate Unchanged

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

UK employment increased further in the three months to December to set a fresh record, while joblessness remained unchanged, indicating the resilience of the labor market amid the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the general election. The number of employed rose 180,000 from the previous three months, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Tuesday, which exceeded the 145,000 growth economists had forecast. Job growth was mainly driven by quarterly increases for full-time workers by 203,000, which was the largest increase since March to May 2014, and for women by 150,000, which was the biggest gain since February to April 2014. The number of women working full-time increased by 150,000, marking the largest rise since November 2012 to January 2013.

The employment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to a record high of 76.5 percent.

The number of unemployed fell by 16,000 people quarterly to 1.29 million, while the jobless rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent as expected. The rate was the joint lowest since early 1975.

The economic inactivity rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to a record low of 20.5 percent in the three months to December. Meanwhile, vacancies grew by 7,000 to 810,000 for the November to January quarter.

However, pay growth slowed with the annual growth in average weekly earnings including bonuses easing to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent in November. Economists had forecast a 3 percent increase.

Total pay excluding bonuses fell to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent. Economists had expected a 3.3 percent growth. "In real terms, regular earnings have finally risen above the level seen in early 2008, but pay including bonuses is still below its pre-downturn peak," ONS Deputy head of labor market statistics Myrto Miltiadou said.

Further, the ONS reported that the labor productivity, or output per hour, grew 0.3 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2019, thanks to the gross value added growing faster than hours worked. ING economist James Smith said lower wage growth is unlikely to influence the Bank of England. "We think the bar for cutting interest rates will still be set relatively high in the next couple of meetings," the economist said.

"Barring a material deterioration in growth, we expect rates to remain on hold this year."


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New York Manufacturing Index Climbs Much More Than Expected In February

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Growth in New York manufacturing activity saw a notable acceleration in the month of February, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 12.9 in February from 4.8 in January, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 5.0.

The bigger than expected increase by the headline index came as the new orders index shot up 16 points to 22.1 and the shipments index climbed to 18.9.


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February 18, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 30, a bearish ABC reversal pattern was initiated around 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) just before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1100 (In the meanwhile, the EURUSD pair was losing much of its bearish momentum).

One more bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located. That's why, quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1100 then 1.1035 which failed to provide enough bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair.

Further bearish decline took place towards 1.1000 where the pair looked quite oversold around the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel where significant bullish rejection was able to push the pair back towards the nearest SUPPLY levels around 1.1080-1.1100 (confluence of supply levels (including the upper limit of the channel).

Since then, the pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel until last week when bearish decline went further below 1.0950 and 1.0910 (Fibonacci Expansion levels 78.6% and 100%) establishing a new low around 1.0790.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair looks quite oversold after such a long bearish decline and if bullish recovery is expressed above 1.0845-1.0860, further bullish advancement would be expected towards 1.0910 then 1.0950.

Intraday traders are advised to look for signs of bullish recovery around the current price levels of (1.0790) as a valid intraday BUY signal aiming towards1.0850 and 1.0910 (the nearest broken demand-level).

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.0830 may enable more bearish decline towards 1.0755.

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*New York Manufacturing Index Climbs To 12.9 In February

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

New York Manufacturing Index Climbs To 12.9 In February


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*Canadian Manufacturing Sales Declined 0.7% In December

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Declined 0.7% In December


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Euro Slides As German Investor Morale Deteriorates On Coronavirus Fears

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

The euro fell sharply against its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, as German investor sentiment worsened in February to the weakest since November last year, citing worries about the coronavirus outbreak in China.

Survey results from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research showed that the investor confidence indicator slumped to 8.7 from 26.7 in January. The February reading was much worse than the 21.5 economists had expected.

For Eurozone, the investor confidence index dropped sharply to 10.4 from 25.6 in January. Economists had forecast a reading of 30 for the month.

The sell-off in the euro further intensified amid falling European shares, as Apple said it would not meet its revenue guidance for the second quarter due to slower iPhone production.

The euro exhibited mixed trading in the previous session, by falling against the greenback and the yen but holding steady against the franc and the pound.

The euro was down at 1.0822 versus the dollar, its lowest level since April 2017. That marked a 0.1 percent drop from yesterday's closing value of 1.0835. The euro is seen finding support around the 1.06 mark.

The EUR/JPY pair dropped 0.3 percent, touching more than a 4-month low of 118.71. At Monday's close, the pair was valued at 119.05. Immediate support for the euro is possibly seen around the 116.00 level.

The euro weakened to a session's low of 0.8303 against the pound, after a rally to 0.8348 at 3:45 am ET, the highest since February 13. The pair had finished yesterday's trading at 0.8330. On the downside, support is seen near the 0.80 mark.

The single currency pulled back to 1.4348 against the loonie and 1.6191 against the aussie, from a 4-day high of 1.4371 and a 6-day high of 1.6229, respectively seen earlier in the trading session. At yesterday's trading close, the euro was worth 1.4339 a loonie and 1.6138 per aussie. Further decline in the euro may locate support around 1.40 against the loonie and 1.58 against the aussie.

After a brief rise to 1.0629 against the franc, the euro dropped back and held near a 4-day low of 1.0615. The euro was trading at 1.0621 versus the franc at Monday's close. The euro is likely to face support around the 1.04 region, if it depreciates further.

On the flip side, the euro was higher at a 6-day high of 1.6946 against the kiwi, as worries about Apple's profit warning knocked down the Asian currency. The euro-kiwi pair was trading at 1.6833 at yesterday's close. Next near-term resistance for the euro is likely seen around the 1.72 level.

On the economic front, Canada manufacturing sales for December, New York Fed's empire manufacturing data and NAHB housing market index for February are scheduled for release in the New York session.


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Hong Kong Jobless Rate Highest In Over 3 Years

Trading 18 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Hong Kong's jobless rate rose marginally during the November to January period to its highest level in over three years, the Census and Statistics Department said on Tuesday.

The jobless rate rose to 3.4 percent during the November to January period from 3.3 percent during the October to December period.

The latest unemployment rate was the highest in more than three years.

However, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 122,300 during the three months ended in January from 124,000 in the previous three months.

The number of employed persons declined by around 14,600 persons to 3.803 billion during the November to January period.

"The labor market slackened further as economic conditions stayed weak," the Secretary for Labor and Welfare Law Chi-kwong said.

The year-on-year decline in total employment widened noticeably further to 1.8 percent, the largest since the third quarter of 2003, the official noted.

This sharp fall in employment combined with a modest increase in unemployment rate suggested that some people may have chosen to leave the labor force when losing their jobs, Law added.

"The labor market will be subject to even more pressure in the near term, as the threat of the novel coronavirus infection has already caused severe disruptions to a wide range of economic activities lately, particularly the consumption- and tourism-related sectors," Law said.


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