German Economic Growth To Be Sluggish In Q1: Bundesbank

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Germany's economy is set to remain sluggish in the first quarter of 2020, hurt by weak demand for exports and the supply disruptions caused by the Covid-19 outbreak in China, Bundesbank said in its latest monthly report, released on Monday.

A pick up in the growth momentum in the biggest euro area economy is unlikely in the first quarter, the bank said.

Further, the coronavirus outbreak in China is a fresh risk for the German growth outlook, the bank added.

Official figures released last week showed that the German economy stagnated in the final three months of 2019, thanks to slower consumption and weaker exports.

In the third quarter, the economy had grown 0.2 percent. In the full year 2019, the economy grew 0.6 percent.


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China Cuts Interest Rate On Medium Term Loans To Ease Virus Impact

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

China's central bank cut the interest rate on medium Term loans on Monday to lessen the impact of the novel coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak on the economy. The People's Bank of China reduced the medium term lending facility, or MLF, by 10 basis points to 3.15 percent. On Monday, the bank offered CNY 200 billion worth of one-year loans to commercial lenders through this. The central bank also pumped CNY 100 billion through the seven-day reverse repurchase agreements. Around CNY 1 trillion worth of reverse repos matured on Monday. The rate on the seven-day reverse repos was cut to 2.40 percent from 2.50 percent in an unscheduled move on February 3 as investor confidence was hurt severely as the virus infections spread and death toll grew. The rate on the 14-day reverse repo was lowered to 2.55 percent from 2.65 percent. This rate was cut last in December, by five basis points.

The latest reduction is likely to be reflected in the loan prime rate, which is scheduled for review on February 20. In January, the benchmark lending rates were left unchanged for the second straight month. The one-year loan prime rate was retained at 4.15 percent and the five-year loan prime rate at 4.80 percent.

The rate was last reduced in November, which was the first cut since the new lending rate was introduced.

The loan prime rate is fixed monthly based on the submission of 18 banks, though Beijing has influence over the rate-setting. This new lending rate replaced the central bank's traditional benchmark lending rate in August 2019.


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USDCHF continues closer towards our target

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

USDCHF has recaptured the 0.98 level and is moving closer to our 0.99 target after breaking above 0.9750 resistance. The formation remains valid and so is our target. Short-term trend remains bullish with important support still at 0.9750.

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Blue line- resistance

Green line - bullish divergence

Red line- expected size of upward move

USDCHF is moving higher as expected. The break out above the blue line was followed by a back test and a bounce. Bulls do not want to see price fall below the blue neckline. The RSI has still not reached overbought levels, so I expect this upward reversal from 0.9630 to unfold into a bigger bounce towards 0.99 and higher.

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EURUSD remains in bearish trend

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

EURUSD has provided us with two bearish/sell signals using the Ichimoku cloud indicator. The last signal was pointed out by our analysis on January 29th. Since then price has bounced as expected and got rejected at cloud resistance. Breaking below support was only a matter of time after that.

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Red lines - bearish wedge pattern

EURUSD remains inside the wedge pattern making lower lows and lower highs. Major resistance is now at 1.1120 and support at the lower wedge boundary at 1.0720. The weekly RSI is not in oversold levels as the Daily one. A bounce towards 1.09 is justified but as long as price is below 1.1120 I do not see this trend ending soon.

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The tenkan-sen is at the 1.0935 area and this is a potential bounce target. Bears remain in control of the trend. So far no reversal sign. There are high chances however to see a reversal soon.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator short-term analysis of Gold for February 17, 2019

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Gold price has recaptured the important resistance level of $1,575 and has so far canceled our view for a pull back towards $1,500. Short-term trend is bullish and the Ichimoku cloud indicator confirms that also.

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Green lines - bullish channel

Gold price is forming a short-term bullish channel. Price has broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is now challenging the 78.6% retracement. As long as price is above $1,563 short-term trend will remain bullish.

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Price remains above the Kumo (cloud) and is now once again above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. If the green indicator (tenkan-sen) turns above the red indicator (kijun-sen) then we will have a strong bullish signal. Support by both the tenkan- and kijun-sen is found at $1,563-66. Holding above this level is key for a move towards $1,600 and higher.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Short-term bullish divergence warning by RSI in USDCAD

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

USDCAD has fallen from 1.33 towards 1.32 as we initially expected in our analysis back in February 11th. Price has so far pulled back as low as 1.3225 back testing the resistance trend line that was broken. In the 4 hour chart we now observe a bullish divergence warning sign in the RSI.

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Red line -resistance (broken)

Blue lines - bullish divergence

USDCAD is showing bullish divergence signs. This is a warning for bears that the downward move from 1.3330 might soon end. Resistance is at 1.3268 and support at 1.3215. Short-term trend remains bearish and there is no sign of a reversal yet. The RSI has not entered oversold levels yet. We were bearish at 1.33 and I prefer to be neutral or bullish at current levels as there is potential of another leg higher from around 1.32.

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UK Household Finance Confidence At 11-year High

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

UK households' perception of financial well-being remained negative in February, but was the highest recorded in eleven years as the pessimism on job security and the living cost inflation eased, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The household finance index rose to 47.6 in February from 44.6 in January. Any score below 50 indicates contraction.

This was the highest score recorded since the beginning of the survey, eleven years ago, IHS Markit said.

The index is compiled based on the results of an online survey by Ipsos MORI between February 6 and 11 among 1,500 adults aged 18-64 across Great Britain.

The Future Household Finance Index that measures the expected change in financial health over the next 12 months rose to 52.7 in February from 49.6 in January.

The level of optimism was at its highest since the data were first collected in February 2009, exceeding the previous peak seen in January 2015, IHS Markit said.

Britons were less pessimistic regarding job security in February and the respective index climbed to a seven-month high.

Further, the rate of growth in both workplace activity and income from employment rose from the previous month.

The expected living cost inflation eased to the lowest level in forty months in February and inflation expectations was the weakest since September 2016.

The survey showed that perceptions of current house prices rose at the strongest rate in almost three years. House price expectations were the strongest since August 2018.

Expectations of the Bank of England's next move being an interest rate cut increased, with the proportion at around 27 percent, its highest since August 2016.

"Survey data are leading the way for information on the post-election and post-Brexit period in the UK, and our latest Household Finance report signals a number of developments that should keep the Bank of England doves at bay and build optimism towards the UK's immediate economic prospects," Joe Hayes, economist at IHS Markit, said.

"Post-election survey data so far scores a fairly good chance a first quarter GDP pickup following a flat end to 2019," the economist added.


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February 17, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 30, a bearish ABC reversal pattern was initiated around 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) just before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1100 (In the meanwhile, the EURUSD pair was losing much of its bearish momentum).

One more bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located. That's why, quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1100 then 1.1035 which failed to provide enough bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair.

Further bearish decline took place towards 1.1000 where the pair looked quite oversold around the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel where significant bullish rejection was able to push the pair back towards the nearest SUPPLY levels around 1.1080-1.1100 (confluence of supply levels (including the upper limit of the channel).

Since then, the pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel until this week when bearish decline went further below 1.0950 and 1.0910 (Fibonacci Expansion levels 78.6% and 100%) establishing a new low around 1.0835.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair looks quite oversold after such a long bearish decline and if bullish recovery is expressed above 1.0870, further bullish advancement would be expected towards 1.0910 then 1.0950.

Intraday traders are advised to look for signs of bullish recovery around the current price levels of (1.0830) as a valid intraday BUY signal aiming towards 1.0910 (the nearest broken demand-level).

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.0830 may enable more bearish decline towards 1.0805 even down to 1.0755.

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February 17, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

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Recently, new descending highs were demonstrated around 1.3200 and 1.3070.

On the other hand, temporary signs of bullish rejection were manifested around 1.2980-1.3000 before bearish breakdown could occur.

Intraday technical outlook was supposed to remain bearish as long as the pair maintained its movement below 1.3070 (recently-established descending High).

Recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2890 where Intraday traders were advised to watch price action carefully (the lower limit of the movement channel while the pair was being oversold).

Since February 10, signs of bullish rejection have been manifested, allowing the current bullish pullback to pursue above 1.3000 which failed to offer any bearish resistance.

The current bullish breakout above 1.3000 is enabling further bullish advancement towards 1.3070 and probably 1.3165-1.3200 is going to be reached where the upper limit of the current movement channel comes to meet the pair.

This extensive bullish movement will probably occur provided that the price level around 1.3070 gets breached to the upside soon enough.

Moreover, bullish persistence above 1.2980-1.3000 is needed to ensure further bullish advancement.

Otherwise, any bearish decline below 1.2980 will probably lead the GBPUSD pair towards the next demand-level (the lower limit of the channel @ 1.2890) which is likely to fail to provide enough bullish support this time.

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Russian Ruble Strengthens To 5-day High Against U.S. Dollar

Trading 17 fév 2020 Commentaire »

The Russian Ruble drifted higher against the U.S. dollar in the European session on Monday, as oil prices rose after China pledged to support the economy hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

In a bid to improve liquidity in the system, China's central bank conducted medium-term lending facility operations worth RMB200 billion and reverse repo operations amounted to RMB100 billion.

China's Finance Minister has unveiled plans to roll out targeted and phased tax and fee cuts to help relieve difficulties for businesses.

The Russian Ruble rose to a 5-day high of 63.21 versus the greenback from Friday's closing value of 63.56. The ruble is poised to challenge resistance around the 59.00 mark.


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