U.S. Factory Orders Jump More Than Expected In December

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Partly reflecting a significant rebound in durable goods orders, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods spiked by more than anticipated in the month of December.

The Commerce Department said factory orders surged up by 1.8 percent in December after tumbling by a revised 1.2 percent in November.

Economists had expected factory orders to jump by 1.2 percent compared to the 0.7 percent decrease originally reported for the previous month.

The bigger than expected rebound in factory orders came as durable goods orders soared by 2.4 percent in December after plunging by 3.1 percent in November. The rebound was unrevised from the previously reported data.

New orders for non-durable goods also showed a significant increase, surging up by 1.1 percent in December after climbing by 0.7 percent in November.

The report said shipments of manufactured goods also rose by 0.5 percent in December, as a 1.1 percent jump in shipments of non-durable goods more than offset a 0.2 percent dip in shipments of durable goods.

Inventories of manufactured goods also climbed by 0.5 percent in November after rising by 0.3 percent in the previous month.

With inventories and shipments both increasing, the inventories-to-shipments ratio was unchanged from the previous month at 1.40.


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*U.S. Factory Orders Spike 1.8% In December

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Factory Orders Spike 1.8% In December


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UK Grocery Sales Log Modest Growth In January

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

UK grocery sales grew modestly in January, usually a month of moderation after the splurge of the festive period, figures from the market researcher Kantar showed Tuesday.

The grocery market grew 0.3 percent during the past 12 weeks, Kantar said.

Non-alcoholic beer sales surged 37 percent as several people commit to drinking less at the start of the year and search for alternatives. Sales of adult soft drinks increased 3 percent.

January is also a month when lots of consumers decide to go vegan, hence "Veganuary".

The survey found that more than twice as many consumers bought one of the UK supermarkets' explicitly labeled plant-based products in January versus the festivity-filled December 2019.

Sales of meat substitutes such as soya mince or vegetarian burgers and sausages grew 14 percent from a year ago. Sales of lentils rose 6 percent, lettuce 10 percent and aubergine 14 percent.

Around 42 percent of the survey participants cited health as the main reason for going vegan in January. This was followed by environmental concerns and ethical reasons.

That doesn't mean people are converting into strict vegans. They are making small changes and trying to eat more plant-based meals, Kantar said.

Among individual retailers, Ocado remained the fastest growing retailer with 11.2 percent annual growth in sales. Lidl reported sales growth of 11.1 percent.

Sales fell at Sainsburys, Asda, Waitrose and Tesco, while they grew at Morrisons, Co-op and Iceland.


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BoJ Chief Says Not Time Yet To Ease Policy To Deal With Coronavirus Impact

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it is not time yet to ease monetary policy to deal with the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Japanese economy.

Kuroda repeated that the central bank would ease policy further if required.

Due to the increasing size and presence of China in global supply chains, any risk to its economy is a cause of concern for other economies, he said in parliament.

At the January meeting, the bank had left its massive monetary policy stimulus unchanged and upgraded its growth outlook citing government's economic measures.


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February 4, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 13, the GBPUSD pair looked overpriced around the price levels of 1.3500 while exceeding the upper limit of the newly-established bullish channel.

On the period between December 18 - 23, bearish breakout below the depicted channel followed by initial bearish closure below 1.3000 were demonstrated on the H4 chart.

However, early signs of bullish recovery were manifested around 1.2900 denoting high probability of bullish pullback to be expected.

Thus, Intraday technical outlook turned into bullish after the GBP/USD has failed to maintain bearish persistence below the newly-established downtrend line.

That's why, bullish breakout above 1.3000 allowed the recent Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where bearish rejection and a sideway consolidation range was established between (1.3200-1.2980).

Moreover, new descending highs were also demonstrated around 1.3120 and 1.3085.

Intraday technical outlook was supposed to remain bearish as long as the pair maintained its movement below 1.3120 (recently established descending high).

That's why, conservative traders were advised to wait for bearish breakdown below 1.2980 as a signal for further bearish decline towards 1.2900, 1.2800 and 1.2780.

However, on Thursday, early signs of bullish recovery have been manifested around 1.2980-1.3000 (Bullish hammer followed by a Bullish Engulfing H4 candlestick) and this is being repeated as you're reading now.

Early signs of bullish rejection are being manifested around 1.2980-1.3000. However, upcoming bearish breakdown below 1.2980 is more probable to occur based on the recent price action.

In the Meanwhile, Intraday traders can wait for H4 candlestick closure below 1.2980 as a valid SELL signal with T/P level to be projected towards 1.2910 then 1.2830 if sufficient bearish momentum is maintained.

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February 4, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 30, a quick bullish spike towards 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) was suggested to be watched for bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

A bearish ABC reversal pattern was demonstrated just before another bearish movement took place towards 1.1100.

However, the EURUSD pair has lost much of its bearish momentum while approaching the price levels around 1.1100.

That's why, another bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located.

Evident signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around 1.1175. That's why, another bearish decline was executed towards 1.1100 then 1.1035 which failed to provide enough bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair.

Further bearish decline took place towards 1.1000 where the pair looked quite oversold. Hence, significant bullish rejection was able to push the pair back towards the nearest SUPPLY level around 1.1080-1.1100.

To be noted, the EURUSD pair had a recently-established Key Level around 1.1035 which is being breached to the upside, now being retested as a demand level.

Hence, intraday traders should be looking for signs of bullish recovery around the current price level (1.1035) as a BUY signal.

Intermediate technicaloutlook remains neutral as long as the pair remains trapped between 1.1000 and 1.1100 (Supply Area).

Hence, further bullish advancement may be expected towards 1.1100 unless bearish breakdown below 1.1035 occurs, which clears the way for another bearish attempt to invade the mentioned demand-level of 1.1000.

Trade recommendations :Intraday traders can wait for signs of bullish rejection around the current key-level (1.1035) on H4 timeframe as a valid BUY signal. T/P level to be located around 1.1100 while S/L to be located below 1.0980.

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UK Construction Contracts At Slowest Pace In 8 Months

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

The UK construction sector contracted at the slowest pace in eight months in January as receding political uncertainty after the general election boosted client demand, results of a closely watched survey showed Tuesday.

The IHS Markit/Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply construction Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 48.4 in January from 44.4 in December.

This was the slowest fall in eight months and above the forecast of 47.1. Nonetheless, the below-50 score signaled contraction.

House building was the best performing broad area of construction activity, with output falling only slightly. Residential work dropped at the slowest pace since May 2019.

At the same time, commercial activity decreased for the thirteenth consecutive month, but the rate of fall was much weaker than in December. Meanwhile, civil engineering was the worst performing sub-sector.

Further, the survey showed that the decrease in new orders was the least marked in the current ten-month period of decline. Orders were close to stabilization in January.

The survey showed that the clarity in relation to Brexit following the general election had a positive impact on demand, especially in the residential development category.

Citing higher fuel and haulage costs, cost burdens increased at the sharpest pace since July 2019. Business optimism surged to its highest level since April 2018.

"Though this rebound is a welcome sign, as with all sudden improvements, the danger remains the sector could easily recoil and shrink again," Duncan Brock, group director at the CIPS, said.

"The domestic political situation and the UK's attempt to find its place in the world remains littered with obstacles so businesses could find themselves on this see-saw of good and bad news for some time yet," Brock added.


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Egypt Non-oil Private Sector Contracts In January

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Egypt's non-oil private sector contracted at a faster rate in January, data from the IHS Markit revealed on Tuesday.

The Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, decreased to 46.0 in January from 48.2 in December. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Output declined at the fastest rate since January 2017, and new orders fell at the quickest pace in nearly three years. Export demand softened for the fourth month in a row.

Purchasing activity declined at the sharpest pace in twenty-eight months in January and sales declined, which led to lower input requirements.

On the price front, weaker demand for inputs restricted cost inflation in January as suppliers kept purchase prices unchanged for the first time in the survey history. Selling charges were lowered as cost pressures remained subdued.

Employment in the non-oil businesses decreased for the third month in a row and weaker sales reduced labor requirements.

"On the positive side, this kept input costs subdued, allowing firms to continue their discounting strategies to try and rejuvenate the market," David Owen, an economist at IHS Markit, said.

"As such, business expectations remained positive, despite dropping to a four-month low, as respondents hoped that lower prices would drive sales and activity higher in the coming months."


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Ireland Jobless Rate Rises In January

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Ireland's jobless rate rose in January after remaining steady in the previous month, figures from the Central Statistics Office showed on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.8 percent in January from 4.7 percent in December. In the same month last year, the jobless rate was 5.1 percent.

The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed rose to 120,200 in January from 116,900 in the previous month.

The youth unemployment rate, which applies to the 15-24 age group, rose to 11.8 percent in January from 11.1 percent in the prior month.


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*Ireland Jan Jobless Rate 4.8% Vs. 4.7% In December

Trading 04 fév 2020 Commentaire »

Ireland Jan Jobless Rate 4.8% Vs. 4.7% In December


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