Global Food Prices At 5-year High: FAO

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

World food prices rose for a third straight month in December to the highest level in five years, driven by a surge in prices of vegetable oil, the Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.

The FAO Food Price Index rose 2.5 percent from November to 18.7 points, the highest level since December 2014, the Rome-based agency said.

The index tracks monthly changes in the global prices of commonly-traded food commodities.

For the full year 2019, the index rose 1.8 percent to 171.5 points. That was still 25 percent below its peak in 2011, the UN food agency said.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index jumped 9.4 percent from November, rising for the sixth consecutive month.

The surge was driven by palm oil prices, buoyed by both solid demand, especially from the biodiesel sector, and concerns about tightening supplies.

However, the vegetable oil sub-index had over the course of 2019 reached its lowest annual average since 2007 despite the December increase.

Sugar prices climbed 4.8 percent, partly driven by rising crude oil prices that led Brazil's sugar mills to use more sugarcane supplies to produce ethanol, in turn leading to reduced sugar availability in the global market.

Dairy prices rose 3.3 percent led by an almost 8 percent increase in cheese prices amid less exports from the EU and Oceania, the FAO said.

Cereal prices grew 1.4 percent, led by wheat prices, while the meat price index was roughly unchanged from the previous month. However, the latter rose 18 percent during 2019, driven by an increase in the prices of pig meat, caused mainly due to solid import demand from Asia.


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Pound Nosedives As BoE Governor Carney Hints At Rate Cut

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

The pound fell sharply against its key counterparts in the European session on Thursday, after the outgoing Governor Mark Carney signaled that an imminent interest rate reduction is on the cards, if weakness in the U.K. economy persisted.

Speaking at a BoE event in London, Carney said that the pace of growth in the UK has slowed below potential and inflation is below target. "There are downside risks from global growth and the possibility that uncertainties over future trading relationships could remain entrenched," he said.

"With the relatively limited space to cut bank rate, if evidence builds that the weakness in activity could persist, risk management considerations would favor a relatively prompt response."

Regarding asset purchases, Carney said that there was sufficient headroom to at least double the ?60 billion scheme of August 2016. That would deliver the equivalent of around a 100 basis point cut to the bank Rate. Forward guidance at the effective lower bound adds to this armory, he told.

"All told, a reasonable judgement is that the combined conventional and unconventional policy space is in the neighborhood of the 250 basis points cut to Bank Rate seen in pre-crisis easing cycles," Carney said.

In economic releases, data from the British Retail Consortium showed that UK retail sales for 2019 was the worst on record.

Combined retail sales for November and December decreased 0.9 percent. Like-for-like sales fell 1.2 percent.

The currency was trading stronger against its most major counterparts in the previous session, as investors cheered U.S. President Donald Trump's tempered response to an Iranian missile attack.

The pound was 0.7 percent lower at a 3-day low of 0.8533 against the euro, following a gain to 0.8471 at 1:00 am ET. At Wednesday's close, the pair was worth 0.8479. Extension of the pound's weakness may lead it to a support around the 0.88 region.

Data from the Eurostat showed that the euro area unemployment rate remained unchanged at the lowest rate since 2008 in November.

The jobless rate came in at 7.5 percent in November, the same rate as in October. The rate came in line with expectations.

The pound lost 0.8 percent to nearly a 2-week low of 1.3013 against the greenback, after rising as high as 1.3124 at 1:00 am ET. The pound-greenback pair had finished deals at 1.3093 on Wednesday. Should the pound falls further, 1.28 is possibly found as its next support level.

After rising to a weekly high of 143.46 at 1:00 am ET, the pound pulled back 0.7 percent to 142.43 against the yen. The pound was trading at 142.84 per yen at yesterday's close. The pound may seek support around the 140.00 mark.

The GBP/CHF pair shed 0.9 percent, falling to 1.2672. This followed a high of 1.2785 it marked at 1:30 am ET. At yesterday's close, the pair was quoted at 1.2752. Further decline in the currency is likely to locate support around the 1.24 area.

Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Swiss retail sales remained stable in November.

The working-day adjusted retail sales remained unchanged in November, after a 0.4 percent rise in October.


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U.S. Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected To 214,000

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

With the more closely watched monthly jobs report looming, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by more than expected in the week ended January 4th.

The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 214,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 223,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 220,000 from the 222,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The Labor Department said the four-week moving average also slid to 224,000, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 233,500.

The less volatile four-week moving average pulled back after hitting its highest level since January of 2018 in the previous week.

Meanwhile, the report said continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, rose by 75,000 to 1.803 million in the week ended December 28th.

The four-week moving average of continuing claims also climbed to 1,744,750, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 1,711,750.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release a separate report on the employment situation in the month of December.

Economists expect employment to increase by 164,000 jobs in December after spiking by 266,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.5 percent.


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U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

With the more closely watched monthly jobs report looming, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by more than expected in the week ended January 4th.

The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 214,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 223,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 220,000 from the 222,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The Labor Department said the four-week moving average also slid to 224,000, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 233,500.

The less volatile four-week moving average pulled back after hitting its highest level since January of 2018 in the previous week.


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*U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Drop To 214,000 In Week Ended 1/4

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Drop To 214,000 In Week Ended 1/4


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*Canadian Building Permits Tumble 2.4% In November

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Canadian Building Permits Tumble 2.4% In November


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January 9, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

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On December 13, the GBPUSD pair looked overpriced around the price levels of 1.3500 while exceeding the upper limit of the newly-established bullish channel.

On December 23, temporary bearish breakout below 1.3000 was demonstrated on the H4 chart.

However, earlier signs of bullish recovery manifested around 1.2900 denoted high probability of bullish breakout to be expected.

Thus, Intraday technical outlook turned into bullish after the GBP/USD has failed to maintain bearish persistence below the newly-established downtrend line.

That's why, bullish breakout above 1.3000 was anticipated. Thus, allowing the recent Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where bearish rejection and another bearish swing were suggested for conservative traders in Last Week's previous articles.

Intraday bearish target remains projected towards 1.3000 and 1.2980 provided that the current bearish breakout below 1.3170 is maintained on the H4 chart.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2980 is mandatory to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.2900 where the backside of the previously-broken downtrend is located.

Moreover, Intraday traders can watch any bullish pullback towards the depicted price zone (1.3170 - 1.3200) for bearish rejection and another valid SELL entry with intraday bearish targets projected towards 1.3000 and 1.2980.

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Eurozone Jobless Rate Steady At 7.5%, Lowest Since 2008

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Eurozone unemployment rate remained at the lowest level since 2008, despite subdued economic growth at the end of the year.

The jobless rate came in at 7.5 percent in November, unchanged from October, Eurostat reported Thursday. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.

The number of people out of work decreased by 10,000 persons in November from the previous month. From last year, the unemployment figure fell by 624,000 persons to 12.31 million.

The unemployment rate among youth aged below 25 held steady at 15.6 percent in November.

Data showed that the unemployment rate in the EU28 also remained unchanged in November, at 6.3 percent, the lowest on record.

The lowest rate in EU28 was reported by the Czech Republic, at 2.2 percent. Meanwhile, the highest rates were seen in Greece and Spain.

Among the big-four nations in the euro currency bloc, Germany's jobless rate remained near a record low of 5 percent in December, the Federal Employment Agency reported last week.

Spain's labor ministry said the unemployment reached its lowest level for the month of December in more than a decade. Unemployment totaled 3.163 million, the ministry said.

Italy's unemployment rate was stable at 9.7 percent in November, Istat data revealed Thursday.

The jobless rate in France fell to 8.4 in November from 8.5 percent a month ago, according to Eurostat.


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January 9, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

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Since November 14, the price levels around 1.1000 has stood as a significant DEMAND-Level offering adequate bullish SUPPORT for the pair on two successive occasions.

During this Period, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1000 and 1.1085-1.1100 (where a cluster of supply levels and a Triple-Top pattern were located) until December 11.

On December 11, another bullish swing was initiated around 1.1040 allowing recent bullish breakout above 1.1110 to pursue towards 1.1175 within the depicted short-term bullish channel.

Initial Intraday bearish rejection was expected around the price levels of (1.1175).

Moreover, On December 20, bearish breakout of the depicted short-term channel was executed.

Thus, further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1065 where significant bullish recovery has originated.

The recent bullish pullback towards 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) was suggested to be watched for bearish rejection and another valid SELL entry.

Suggested bearish position is currently running in profits while approaching the price levels around 1.1110.

The current Key-Level around 1.1110 may provide some bullish rejection. If so, another bullish pullback would be expected towards 1.1140 and probably 1.1175.

On the other hand, for those who caught the initial bearish trade around 1.1235, bearish persistence below 1.1110 enables further bearish decline towards 1.1060 and probably 1.1040.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the price levels of (1.1140-1.1175) as another valid SELL signal.

Bearish projection target to be located around 1.1120 and probably 1.1060. Any bullish breakout above 1.1175 invalidates the mentioned bearish trading scenario.

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South Africa Manufacturing Output Falls Most In 5 Months

Trading 09 jan 2020 Commentaire »

South Africa's manufacturing output declined at the sharpest rate in five months in November, data from Statistics South Africa showed on Thursday.

Manufacturing output fell 3.6 percent year-on-year in November, following a 0.8 percent decrease in October. The latest decline was the worst since June, when output fell at the same pace.

The biggest negative contributions came from the wood, paper, publishing and printing industry and motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment sector.

On a month-on-month basis, manufacturing output fell 1.5 percent in November after a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month.

For the three-month period ended in November, manufacturing production remained unchanged, after a 0.5 percent increase in the previous three months.


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