January 1, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

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In the period between October 17 to December 4, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.2780 and 1.3000 until December 4 when bullish breakout above 1.3000 was achieved.

Moreover, a newly-established short-term bullish channel was initiated on the chart.

The GBPUSD has recently exceeded the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel on its way towards 1.3500 where the pair looked quite overpriced.

This was followed by successive bearish-engulfing H4 candlesticks which brought the pair back towards 1.3170 quickly.

Further bearish decline was pursued towards 1.3000 which got broken to the downside as well.

Technical short-term outlook turned into bearish since bearish persistence below 1.3000 was established on the H4 chart.

Hence, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.2840 - 1.2800.

However, earlier signs of bullish recovery manifested around 1.2900 denoted high probability of bullish breakout to be expected.

Intraday technical outlook turned into bullish after the GBP/USD has failed to maintain bearish persistence below the newly-established downtrend line.

That's why, bullish breakout above 1.3000 was anticipated. Thus allowing the current Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where bearish rejection and another bearish swing can be watched by conservative traders.

Bearish reversal scenario around 1.3250 is supported by the recent negative divergence as depicted on the chart.

If so, Intraday bearish target would be projected towards 1.3000 provided that early bearish breakout below 1.3190 is achieved.

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January 1, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

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Since November 14, the price levels around 1.1000 has been standing as a significant DEMAND-Level which has been offering adequate bullish SUPPORT for the pair on two successive occasions.

Shortly-after, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within a narrower consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1000 and 1.1085-1.1100 (where a cluster of supply levels and a Triple-Top pattern were located) until December 11.

On December 11, another bullish swing was initiated around 1.1040 allowing recent bullish breakout above 1.1110 to pursue towards 1.1175 within the depicted newly-established bullish channel.

Initial Intraday bearish rejection was expected around the price levels of (1.1175).

Quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1115 (Intraday Key-level) which got broken to the downside as well.

On December 20, bearish breakout of the depicted short-term channel was executed. Thus, further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1065 where significant bullish recovery has originated.

The current bullish pullback towards 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) should be watched for bearish rejection and another valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.1175 is mandatory to allow next bearish target to be reached around 1.1120.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for bearish rejection signs around the current price levels of (1.1235) as a valid SELL signal.

Bearish projection target to be located around 1.1175 and 1.1120. Any bullish breakout above 1.1250 invalidates the mentioned scenario.

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South Korea Exports Fall At Slowest Pace In 8 Months

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

South Korea's exports declined at the slowest pace in eight months in December, data from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy revealed on Wednesday.

Exports decreased 5.2 percent year-on-year in December. This was the smallest drop since April. Economists had forecast shipments to decline 6 percent after falling 14.4 percent in November.

Exports of South Korea to its biggest export destination, China, increased 3.3 percent, which was the first growth in 14 months. However, shipments to the US fell 0.4 percent.

Imports logged an annual decline of 0.7 percent versus the expected fall of 4.6 percent and November's 13 percent decrease, data showed.

As a result, the trade surplus fell to $2.02 billion from $3.34 billion in November. The trade balance has posted surplus over the last 95 consecutive months.

In the whole year of 2019, exports plunged 10.3 percent reflecting weak global trade as well as subdued demand for semiconductors. At the same time, imports were down 6 percent.

The trade surplus totaled $39.1 billion in 2019, marking the 11th straight year that the economy registered a surplus.

The trade ministry expects a recovery in exports this year. Exports are forecast to advance 3 percent in 2020.

In order to revive economic growth, the central bank had reduced the interest rate twice in 2019, by 25 basis points each in July and October. The rate currently stands at a record low 1.25 percent.

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Dollar Extends Weakness, Declines To 6-month Low

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar extended its slide and slipped to a 6-month low on Tuesday as renewed optimism about global economic growth and U.S.-China trade deal pushed up values of riskier currencies.

The dollar index declined to a low of 96.36 in early trades Tuesday, and despite recovering some lost ground, was still notably lower at 96.49 around late afternoon, trailing its previous close by about 0.26%.

In 2019, the dollar has gained a net quarter percent, compared to nearly a gain of nearly 4.5% in 2018.

Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to $1.1241 on Tuesday before paring some losses. At $1.1216, it was still down in negative territory with a loss of about 0.12%.

The Pound Sterling was up more than 1% with a unit of sterling fetching $1.3246, as compared to $1.3112 on Monday. The sterling rose to a high of $1.3282 in the session before paring some gains.

The safe-haven Japanese Yen gained as well against the dollar, rising to 108.66 a dollar, from 108.88 yen a dollar late on Monday.

The Aussie gained more than 0.3% against the dollar at 0.7107. The dollar weakened to 0.9677 against Swiss franc and slipped more than 0.6% against the loonie, at $1.2985.

In economic news, Official data showed that China factory activity expanded for a second straight month in December.

The manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.2 in December, while it was forecast to fall to 50.0.

A report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence dipped from an upwardly revised level in the month of December.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 126.5 in December from an upwardly revised 126.8 in November.

Economists had expected the index to rise to 128.2 from the 125.5 originally reported for the previous month.

In trade news, U.S. President Donald Trump revealed in a post on Twitter this morning that the phase one trade deal will be signed during a White House ceremony on January 15th.

"I will be signing our very large and comprehensive Phase One Trade Deal with China on January 15. The ceremony will take place at the White House. High level representatives of China will be present. At a later date I will be going to Beijing where talks will begin on Phase Two!" Trump tweeted.

Recent reports have indicated Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Beijing's top trade negotiator, will be on hand to sign the agreement.


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Treasuries Move Lower On The Day But Remain Sharply Higher For The Year

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Following the pullback seen in the previous session, treasuries saw some further downside during the final trading day of the year on Tuesday.

Bond prices showed a lack of direction early in the session but slid more firmly into the red as the day progressed. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 2.4 basis points to 1.919 percent.

The ten-year yield closed higher for the second straight session but still showed a steep drop for the year, tumbling by 76.7 basis points.

During the year, treasuries benefited from uncertainty generated by the trade war between the U.S. and China as well as three straight rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Traders largely shrugged off a report from the Conference Board showing U.S. consumer confidence dipped from an upwardly revised level in the month of December.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 126.5 in December from an upwardly revised 126.8 in November.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to rise to 128.2 from the 125.5 originally reported for the previous month.

"While consumers' assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board.

She added, "While the economy hasn't shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020."

Following the New Year's Day holiday on Wednesday, a report on weekly jobless claims may attract some attention on Thursday.

The Treasury Department is also due to announce the details of January's auctions of three-year and ten-year notes and thirty-year bonds.


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Oil Settles Lower For The Day, But Posts Strong Annual Returns

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices drifted lower on Tuesday, but still ended the month and the calendar year with hefty gains.

Tensions in the Middle East, the extended output cuts by OPEC and allies, easing concerns about outlook for energy demand following positive developments on Sino-U.S. trade front and the latest data from the Energy Information Administration that showed a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude inventories contributed to oil's rise in recent sessions.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February ended down $0.62, or about 1%, at $61.06 a barrel.

Oil futures gained about 11% in the month of December 2019. For the year, WTI crude oil futures gained nearly 35%, the best returns since 2016, when futures soared as much as 45%.

According to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing sector expanded for the second straight month in December.

The report said the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index held steady at 50.2 in December, against forecast for a fall to 50.0. The factory PMI has stayed above 50 for the second consecutive month.

Suggesting acceleration in manufacturing output, the production sub-index gained 0.6 points to 53.2 in December. The new order index stayed above 50, although on month, it dropped 0.1 point to 51.2.

In U.S. economic news, a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence dipped from an upwardly revised level in the month of December.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 126.5 in December from an upwardly revised 126.8 in November.

Economists had expected the index to rise to 128.2 from the 125.5 originally reported for the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Rises For 6th Straight Session, Ends Year On Upbeat Note

Trading 01 jan 2020 Commentaire »

Gold futures extended their gains to a sixth successive session as prices of the commodity rose on Tuesday amid an escalation in tensions in the Middle East and on hopes of increased demand.

The dollar's continued weakness contributed as well to the yellow metal's gains.

The dollar index, which declined to 96.36 after a weak start, later edged up to 96.45, but was still trailing its previous close by about 0.3%.

Gold futures for February ended up $4.50, or about 0.3%, at $1,523.10 an ounce, the highest settlement in about 14 weeks. Annually, year 2019 turned out to be the best for the safe-haven asset in nine years in terms of returns.

On Monday, gold futures for February ended up $0.50 at $1,518.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for March ended down $0.080 at $17.921 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $2.7970 per pound, down $0.0365 from previous close.

In economic news, a report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence dipped from an upwardly revised level in the month of December.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 126.5 in December from an upwardly revised 126.8 in November.

Economists had expected the index to rise to 128.2 from the 125.5 originally reported for the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com