U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Shows Continued Decrease In November

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting a softening in consumers' assessment of current conditions, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly declined for a fourth consecutive month in November.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 125.5 in November from an upwardly revised 126.1 in October.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to inch up to 126.9 from the 125.9 originally reported for the previous month.

The unexpected drop by the headline index came as the present situation index slumped to 166.9 in November from 173.5 in October.

"The decline in the Present Situation Index suggests that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are "good" crept up to 40.2 from 39.7 percent, but those claiming business conditions are "bad" also increased to 13.8 percent from 11.0 percent.

Consumers' assessment of the job market was less favorable, with those saying jobs are "plentiful" falling to 44.8 percent from 47.7 percent and those claiming jobs are "hard to get" rising to 12.7 percent from 11.6 percent.

"However, consumers' short-term expectations improved modestly, and growth in early 2020 is likely to remain at around 2 percent," said Franco. "Overall, confidence levels are still high and should support solid spending during this holiday season."

The report said the expectations index climbed to 97.9 in November from 94.5 in October, as consumers were moderately more optimistic about the short-term outlook.

The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months edged down to 17.2 percent from 18.7 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen inched up to 12.1 percent from 11.5 percent.

The Conference Board said consumers' outlook for the labor market was mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead dipped to 15.7 percent from 16.9 percent, but those anticipating fewer jobs also decreased to 13.2 percent from 18.0 percent.

Regarding short-term income prospects, consumers expecting an improvement crept up to 21.8 percent from 21.4 percent, while those expecting a decrease dipped to 6.2 percent from 6.9 percent.

Last Friday, the University of Michigan released a separate report showing a much bigger than expected upward revision to its reading on U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of November.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for November was upwardly revised to 96.8 from the preliminary reading of 95.7. The revised reading is well above the final October reading of 95.5.


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U.S. New Home Sales Pull Back From Upwardly Revised Level

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

With revised data showing U.S. new home sales spiked in September compared to the previously reported decrease, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing new home sales pulled back in the month of October.

The Commerce Department said new home sales fell by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 733,000 in October after surging up by 4.5 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 738,000 in September.

Economists had expected new home sales to jump by 1.1 percent to a rate of 709,000 from the 701,000 originally reported for the previous month.

With the upward revision, new home sales in September were at their highest level since hitting 778,000 in July of 2007.

The pullback in new home sales in October came as sales in the Northeast plunged by 18.2 percent to a rate of 27,000. New home sales in the South also tumbled by 3.3 percent to a rate of 436,000.

On the other hand, the report said new home sales in the West soared by 7.1 percent to rate of 195,000 and new home sales in the Midwest jumped by 4.2 percent to rate of 75,000.

The Commerce Department said the median sales price of new houses sold in October was $316,700, up 2.1 percent from $310,200 in September but down 3.5 percent from $328,300 in the same month a year ago.

The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 322,000, representing 5.3 months of supply at the current sales rate.

A separate report released by the National Association of Realtors last Thursday showed existing home sales in the U.S. rebounded by more than expected in the month of October.

NAR said existing home sales jumped by 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 5.46 million in October after tumbling by 2.5 percent to a revised rate of 5.360 million in September.

Economists had expected existing home sales to surge up by 1.4 percent compared to the 2.2 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.


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*U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Dips To 125.5 In November

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Dips To 125.5 In November


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*U.S. New Home Sales Drop 0.7% In October

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. New Home Sales Drop 0.7% In October


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Dollar Little Changed After U.S. Housing Reports

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September have been released at 9:00 am ET Tuesday. Following these data, the greenback changed little against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 108.97 against the yen, 0.9968 against the franc, 1.2854 against the pound and 1.1018 against the euro around 9:02 am ET.


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*S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Up 2.1% YoY In September

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Up 2.1% YoY In September


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Dollar Mixed Ahead Of U.S. Housing Reports

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The Federal Housing Finance Agency's house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September will be issued at 9:00 am ET Tuesday.

Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the greenback declined against the franc and the euro, it was steady against the yen. Against the pound, it rose.

The greenback was worth 108.96 against the yen, 0.9971 against the franc, 1.2853 against the pound and 1.1017 against the euro at 8:55 am ET.


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*U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows To $66.5 Billion In October

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows To $66.5 Billion In October


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Euro Advances As German Consumer Sentiment Improves

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The euro strengthened against its most major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, as German Gfk consumer sentiment picked in December on robust economic and income expectations.

Survey data from market research group GfK showed that consumer sentiment index rose to 9.7 points, as expected, from 9.6 in November.

The economic expectations index climbed sharply by 15.5 points to 1.7 in November. Likewise, the income expectations indicator advanced 6.5 points to 45.5.

Trade negotiators from Washington and Beijing discussed trade related issues through phone, in a sign of progress in the trade dispute.

China's Commerce Ministry said that Vice Premier Liu He spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and agreed to continue talks on the Phase 1 deal.

The currency has been trading in a positive territory against its major counterparts in the Asian session, with the exception of the greenback.

The euro rose to 1.0998 against the franc, from a low of 1.0969 seen at 5:15 pm ET. Next key resistance for the euro is seen around the 1.11 mark.

The euro edged higher to 1.1021 against the greenback, reversing from a low of 1.1007 set at 8:00 pm ET. The euro is seen finding resistance around the 1.12 level.

Bouncing off from a session's low of 0.8530 hit at 5:15 pm ET, the euro advanced to 0.8575 against the pound. The euro is likely to find resistance around the 0.87 level.

The euro ticked up to 1.7188 against the kiwi, compared to 1.7162 hit late New York Monday. If the euro rises further, 1.75 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The European currency gained to 1.4674 against the loonie, marking a 4-day high. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 1.4647. On the upside, 1.49 is possibly seen as the next resistance level for the currency.

The euro also strengthened to a 4-day high of 1.6274 against the aussie, from Monday's closing value of 1.6247. Should the euro rises further, it may challenge resistance around the 1.65 level.

In contrast, the euro held steady against the yen, after setting a 4-day high of 120.25 at 8:45 pm ET. The pair had closed Monday's deals at 119.95.

Data from the Bank of Japan showed that Japan producer prices surged 2.1 percent on year in October - handily beating expectations for an increase of 1.8 percent following the 0.5 percent gain in September.

On a monthly basis, producer prices advanced 1.9 percent following the flat reading in the previous month.

Looking ahead, U.S. FHFA's house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for September, new home sales for October and consumer sentiment index for November will be featured in the New York session.


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RBA Chief Says QE Becomes An Option At 0.25% Cash Rate

Trading 26 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Tuesday that quantitative easing becomes an option at a cash rate of 0.25 percent.

However, he said, "the threshold for undertaking QE in Australia has not been reached, and I don't expect it to be reached in the near future."

The economy is set to progress towards its goal over the next couple of years and the cash rate is still above the level at which bond buying would be considered, Lowe noted. "So QE is not on our agenda at this point in time," he added.

The bank had reduced its cash rate three times this year. The rate now stands at a record low 0.75 percent.

The bank is committed to maintaining interest rates at low levels until it is confident that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 percent target range, the governor said.

The central scenario for the Australian economy remains for economic growth to pick up from the current level, to hit around 3 percent in 2021. This pick-up in growth should see a reduction in the unemployment rate and a lift in inflation, the banker added.

"There may come a point where QE could help promote our collective welfare, but we are not at that point and I don't expect us to get there," Lowe concluded.

Ben Udy, an economist at Capital Economics, said the confirmation by the RBA that the floor for interest rates is 0.25 percent is consistent with expectation of two more cuts next year, but more stimulus is likely to be required for the RBA to meet its objectives.

Therefore, the economist reiterated the forecast that the RBA will launch QE in 2020.


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