*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jump By 7.9 Million Barrels In Week Ended 11/1

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jump By 7.9 Million Barrels In Week Ended 11/1


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Russia Services Growth Strongest In A Year

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Russia's services sector expanded at the fastest pace in a year in October, amid gains in output, new business and employment, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Wednesday.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index increased to 55.8 in October from 53.6 in September. Economists had forecast a score of 52.8.

Any score above 50 indicates expansion. The rate of activity growth improved for the third month running.

New business rose for the fourth month in a row in October, at the fastest pace since March. Orders from abroad increased at the fastest rate in five months.

Employment accelerated for the second straight month in October and at the fastest since February. Backlogs of work declined at the weakest rate since May.

On the price front, input price inflation slowed to the softest since early-2018, while the output charges increased, but at a slower pace.

The positive sentiment reached the highest level in five months in October, but remained slightly below the series average.

The composite output index increased to 53.3 in October from 51.4 in the previous month.


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German Economic Advisers Say ‘Deep Recession Unlikely’

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The German government's independent economic advisers slashed the growth forecast for the biggest euro area economy, but said a severe recession is unlikely.

"The upswing has come to an end, but a widespread and deep recession is still unlikely," the German Council of Economic Experts said in its Annual Report 2019/20.

"The weak economic momentum is expected to persist into next year at least."

Advisers cut Germany's economic growth forecast for this year to 0.5 percent from 0.8 percent seen in March. The projection for next year was lowered to 0.9 percent from 1.7 percent.

The German economy is set to expand a calendar adjusted 0.5 percent in both years, the report showed.

Monetary policy is very expansionary already and it would have been better if the ECB did not restart its asset repurchases, the report said. The latest stimulus from ECB could entail considerable risks to financial stability, advisers said.

In Germany, fiscal policy is also expansionary and hence, advisers saw no need for an extra economic stimulus package.

"It is instead a matter of allowing the automatic stabilizers to take effect," the report said.

"The debt brake does not rule out new borrowing for this purpose and leaves scope for increasing public investment."

The uncertainty surrounding the UK's exit from EU has exerted a negative impact on Germany and no-deal Brexit would have even more severe consequences, the report said.

"It would therefore still be preferable for the negotiating partners to find a way of preventing Brexit or, if that is not possible, reaching as broad an agreement as possible on the subsequent trading relationship," the report added.


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Poland Central Bank Holds Key Rate Steady

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Poland's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record low on Wednesday, as widely expected.

The Monetary Policy Council decided to retain the key reference rate at a record low 1.50 percent, the National Bank of Poland said in a statement.

The previous change in the reference rate was a half-basis point reduction in March 2015.

The lombard rate was retained at 2.50 percent and the deposit rate at 0.50 percent. The rediscount rate was left unchanged at 1.75 percent.

The central bank is set to present its latest macroeconomic projections later on Wednesday.

"Comments by President [Adam] Glapinski?suggest limited revisions, supporting our call for flat rates until late 2021," ING economist Rafal Benecki said. "?In 2021, in our opinion, interest rate cuts are likely," the economist added.


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U.S. Labor Productivity Unexpectedly Dips 0.3% In Q3

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Labor productivity in the U.S. unexpectedly edged lower in the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday.

The report said labor productivity dipped by 0.3 percent in the third quarter after spiking by an upwardly revised 2.5 percent in the second quarter.

The drop in productivity came as a surprise to economists, who had expected productivity to climb by 0.9 percent compared to the 2.3 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

The unexpected decrease in productivity, a measure of output per hour, came as output climbed by 2.1 percent compared to a 2.4 percent increase in hours worked.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said unit labor costs soared by 3.6 percent in the third quarter after surging up by a downwardly revised 2.4 percent in the second quarter.

Economists had expected unit labor costs to increase by 2.2 percent compared to the 2.6 percent spike originally reported for the previous month.

The substantial increase in labor costs reflected the drop in productivity as well as a 3.3 percent jump in hourly compensation.

Real hourly compensation, which takes changes in consumer prices into account, showed a much more modest 1.4 percent increase in the third quarter.

Compared to the same quarter a year ago, productivity in the third quarter was up by 1.4 percent, as output increased by 2.3 percent and hours worked rose by 0.9 percent.

Unit labor costs were up by 3.3 percent year-over-year, with hourly compensation spiking by 4.5 percent and real hourly compensation climbing by 2.7 percent.

Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, noted the annual rate of productivity growth is still slightly above the previous five-year average but illustrates that the acceleration in growth that began last year is already fading.

"That isn't a huge surprise given the recent weakness of business investment, with declines in both the second and third quarters meaning that the earlier wave of capital deepening has now gone into reverse," Hunter said.

"Weak investment can in turn partly be blamed on trade uncertainty, in which case we could see a rebound if a deal with China is eventually agreed," he added. "But it also reflects the fact that weaker demand is contributing to the re-emergence of spare capacity, reducing the need for firms to invest."

Hunter said he remains relatively optimistic about the longer-run prospects for productivity growth due to emerging technologies like AI and driverless vehicles but noted there are currently still no sign of a breakout from the weak post-crisis trend in productivity growth.


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*Poland CB Holds Key Interest Rate Unchanged At 1.5% As Expected

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Poland CB Holds Key Interest Rate Unchanged At 1.5% As Expected


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Gold price remains below $1,500 and bears under control of the trend

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price bounced today from the recent lows at $1,479 to $1,493. Gold price has broken important trend line support and today's bounce was most probably a back test of this trend line that is now resistance.

analytics5dc309a56f813.png

Orange -rectangle - resistance

Green line - trend line resistance (old support)

Gold price shows rejection signs at the back test of the broken green trend line. Gold bulls need to step in and push price above $1,500 until the end of the week. Support remains at $1,480 and a new lower low this week would be a bearish sign for next week as well. If bulls manage to end the week above or near $1,505 then we could see more upside next week. For now bears are in control but they will also need to show more signs of strength in order to expect more downside.

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Technical analysis of EURUSD for November 6, 2019

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has broken out and below the short-term bullish channel and is now challenging the 38% Fibonacci retracement of its recent move higher. Bears seem to be in control of the short-term trend and if price breaks below 1.1060 I would expect more downside to be seen soon.

analytics5dc30861cddad.png

Green lines - short-term bullish channel

EURUSD is at the 38% Fibonacci level. This is important support. Breaking below it will push price towards 1.1025 or 1.10 which are the next two important support levels. Resistance remains key at 1.1130 and above that the important resistance is the double top at 1.1180 area. The most probable scenario for me is to see price pull back towards 1.10 in order to make a higher low relative to the September lows. I see nothing bullish right now so I prefer to be neutral.

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U.S. Labor Productivity Unexpectedly Edges Lower In Q3

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Labor productivity in the U.S. unexpectedly edged lower in the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday.

The report said labor productivity dipped by 0.3 percent in the third quarter after spiking by an upwardly revised 2.5 percent in the second quarter.

The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected productivity to climb by 0.9 percent compared to the 2.3 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department said unit labor costs soared by 3.6 percent in the third quarter after surging up by a downwardly revised 2.4 percent in the second quarter.

Economists had expected unit labor costs to jump by 2.2 percent compared to the 2.6 percent spike originally reported for the previous month.


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*U.S. Labor Productivity Dips 0.3% In Q3, Labor Costs Spike 3.6%

Trading 06 nov 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Labor Productivity Dips 0.3% In Q3, Labor Costs Spike 3.6%


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com