Expecting bearish reversal in USDCAD

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

USDCAD has stopped its rise from 1.30 at the resistance of 1.33. In the Daily chart we observe many candlesticks with long upper tails, implying strong resistance and that sellers are stronger here than bulls. This is expected to lead to a reversal in USDCAD back towards 1.32 at least.

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Red arrows - weakness candlesticks with long upper tails

Black line- short-term resistance

Blue line- major support trend line

Red line -major resistance

USDCAD is expected to turn lower from current levels. At 1.33 I'm bearish looking for a push lower towards 1.32 at least. The risk reward favors bears at the current price as price is very close to major resistance that has been confirmed many times. The black trend line resistance has not been broken. I expect to see it stay like this for the coming week. This coming week I expect USDCAD to weaken.

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What do BTCUSD bulls need for a new up trend to start?

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

BTCUSD is bouncing inside a downward sloping wedge pattern. For another bullish trend to start we first need to see some signs of strength. BTCUSD must first exit the downward sloping wedge pattern and start making higher highs and higher lows.

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Red lines - bullish wedge

Resistance by the wedge pattern is found at $8,800-$9,000 price level. The RSI on the Daily chart is turning upwards from oversold levels. Price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bull wave of Bitcoin. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a very common area of trend reversals. So what bulls need now is to show more signs of strength. First break above the wedge pattern and then break above the latest important high. The $9,900 area is important resistance and a break above it will confirm trend change.

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Gold bulls give hope for $1,490

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price did not break below $1,455-50 support and is bouncing again higher towards $1.470. There are signs that point to further upside in Gold as price could reach the upper bearish channel boundary around $1,490.

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Green lines - bearish channel

Orange rectangle -short-term target

Red line -RSI resistance (broken)

Gold price is bouncing. The RSI has broken its resistance trend line. This is a bullish sign. Gold price could continue higher this week and eventually reach $1,490 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from $1,515. Since support at $1,450-55 was respected, we have to adjust our strategy as well. As long as price is above $1,450 we are short-term bullish looking for a move towards $1,490 and why not higher. Major resistance remains at $1,490-$1,500.

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EURUSD bullish setup

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The three consecutive price lows in EURUSD combined with non confirmation from the RSI is a bullish setup. This bullish divergence pattern most of the times points to a reversal. That is why I turn short-term bullish at least for EURUSD looking for a bounce towards 1.11 at least.

analytics5de217f496b34.png

Red lines - bullish divergence

Orange rectangle - support area

EURUSD has not broken below the orange support area. Support is critical in this Fibonacci retracement level and as we previously mentioned, at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement the chances of a trend reversal are high. The bullish divergence in the 4 hour chart supports the bullish scenario for a bounce towards 1.11. We are bullish EURUSD as long as price is above this week's lows. A weekly close above 1.1060 will increase the chances of pushing above 1.11 even towards 1.12-1.13 over the coming weeks. For this to hold support must hold at 1.10-1.0990.

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U.S. Dollar Shows Modest Move To The Downside

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The value of the U.S. dollar moved modestly lower over the course of the trading session on Friday, as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves.

The dollar is trading at 109.45 yen compared to the 109.51 yen it fetched on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1018 compared to yesterday's $1.1009.

The choppy trading came amid concerns rising tensions between the U.S. and China over the situation in Hong Kong could impact ongoing trade talks.

After President Donald Trump signed two bills in support of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry threatened strong countermeasures.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang accused the U.S. of interfering in China's internal affairs and violating international law and the basic norms governing international relations.

"China will take strong counter-measures in response to the U.S. behavior that interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China's interests," Geng said.

"No one shall underestimate China's determination in safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests," he added. "Nor shall they misjudge China's resolve in implementing the 'one country, two systems' principle and in upholding prosperity and stability in Hong Kong."

With a fresh round of protests expected over the weekend, the dispute over the situation in Hong Kong could potentially derail the long-awaited phase one trade deal.

Trading activity remained relatively light, however, with many traders still away from their desks following the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday.


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Oil Prices Fall Sharply On Rising Tensions, Looming OPEC Meeting

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

After moving modestly higher in the two previous sessions, the price of crude oil showed a substantial pullback during trading on Friday.

Crude for January delivery plunged $2.94 or 5.1 percent to $55.17 a barrel, ending the session at its lowest closing level in a month.

The sell-off by oil prices came amid concerns rising tensions between the U.S. and China over the situation in Hong Kong could impact ongoing trade talks.

The resignation of Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi also contributed to the steep drop, as traders believe the news could help quell weeks of unrest in Iraq.

Traders were also looking ahead to next week's OPEC meeting, where the cartel and its allies are widely expected to extend the current output cut of 1.2 million barrels per day.

After President Donald Trump signed two bills in support of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry threatened strong countermeasures.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang accused the U.S. of interfering in China's internal affairs and violating international law and the basic norms governing international relations.

"China will take strong counter-measures in response to the U.S. behavior that interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China's interests," Geng said.

"No one shall underestimate China's determination in safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests," he added. "Nor shall they misjudge China's resolve in implementing the 'one country, two systems' principle and in upholding prosperity and stability in Hong Kong."

With a fresh round of protests expected over the weekend, the dispute over the situation in Hong Kong could potentially derail the long-awaited phase one trade deal.


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Treasuries Climb Off Worst Levels But Close Slightly Lower

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Following the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday, treasuries finished Friday's abbreviated trading session slightly lower.

Bond prices climbed well off their lows of the session but still ended the day just below the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up nearly a basis point at 1.776 percent.

Treasuries rebounded from early weakness amid concerns rising tensions between the U.S. and China over the situation in Hong Kong could impact ongoing trade talks.

After President Donald Trump signed two bills in support of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry threatened strong countermeasures.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang accused the U.S. of interfering in China's internal affairs and violating international law and the basic norms governing international relations.

"China will take strong counter-measures in response to the U.S. behavior that interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China's interests," Geng said.

"No one shall underestimate China's determination in safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests," he added. "Nor shall they misjudge China's resolve in implementing the 'one country, two systems' principle and in upholding prosperity and stability in Hong Kong."

With a fresh round of protests expected over the weekend, the dispute over the situation in Hong Kong could potentially derail the long-awaited phase one trade deal.

News on the trade front is likely to remain in focus next week, although traders are also likely to keep a close eye on the Labor Department's monthly jobs report.

Trading could also be impacted by reaction to reports on manufacturing and service sector activity, the U.S. trade deficit, and consumer sentiment.


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Gold Prices Move Notably Higher Amid Rising Tensions Over Hong Kong

Trading 30 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Friday, more than offsetting the pullback seen on Wednesday.

The price of gold for February delivery jumped $11.90 or 0.8 percent to $1,472.70 an ounce after sliding $6.60 to $1,460.80 an ounce in the previous session.

For the holiday-interrupted week, gold for February delivery showed little change, inching up by just 0.1 percent.

The rebound on Friday came as some traders looked to gold as a safe haven amid concerns rising tensions between the U.S. and China over the situation in Hong Kong could impact ongoing trade talks.

After President Donald Trump signed two bills in support of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry threatened strong countermeasures.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang accused the U.S. of interfering in China's internal affairs and violating international law and the basic norms governing international relations.

"China will take strong counter-measures in response to the U.S. behavior that interferes in China's internal affairs and undermines China's interests," Geng said.

"No one shall underestimate China's determination in safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests," he added. "Nor shall they misjudge China's resolve in implementing the 'one country, two systems' principle and in upholding prosperity and stability in Hong Kong."

With a fresh round of protests expected over the weekend, the dispute over the situation in Hong Kong could potentially derail the long-awaited phase one trade deal.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Sweden Growth Improves In Q3

Trading 29 nov 2019 Commentaire »

Sweden's economy grew for a second straight quarter and at a faster pace, driven by exports, preliminary data from Statistics Sweden showed on Friday. Gross domestic product grew a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent from the previous three months. Economists had forecast 0.2 percent growth. Second quarter growth was revised higher to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent. The economy stagnated in the first quarter. Exports rose 1.4 percent and imports grew 0.8 percent. Gross fixed capital formation grew 0.5 percent, mainly due to increased investments in transport equipment. Household consumption grew 0.4 percent and state spending increased 0.2 percent. Changes in inventories deducted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth.

On a year-on-year basis, GDP rose a calendar adjusted 1.6 percent in the third quarter after a 1 percent growth in the previous quarter. Economists had expected 1.5 percent expansion.


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Canadian Dollar Strengthens After GDP Data

Trading 29 nov 2019 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar moved up against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as the economy expanded in the third quarter driven by higher business investment and increased household spending.

Data from Statistics Canada showed that real GDP increased 0.3 percent, following a 0.9 percent rise in the second quarter.

On an annualized basis, the GDP rose 1.3 percent in the third quarter, following a revised 3.5 percent gain in the previous quarter. Economists had forecast a 1.4 percent growth.

On a month-on-month basis, the gross domestic product rose 0.1 percent, matching expectations and unchanged from August.

Separate data showed that industrial product price index rose more than expected in October, primarily due to higher prices for energy and petroleum products.

The IPPI rose 0.1 percent in October, after a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month. The reading was forecast to be flat.

The currency slipped against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on concerns that the U.S. legislation expressing support for Hong Kong protesters could undermine negotiations on a trade deal.

Extending early rally, the loonie advanced to a 2-day high of 1.4600 against the euro from Thursday's closing value of 1.4621. The loonie is likely to find resistance around the 1.42 level.

Data from the Federal Employment Agency showed that German unemployment declined notably in November.

The number of people out of work declined by a seasonally adjusted 16,000 after rising 5,000 a month ago. Economists had forecast an increase of 6,000.

Following a 2-day drop to 0.9009 at 6:15 am ET, the loonie reversed direction against the aussie with the pair trading at 0.8999. If the currency rises further, 0.88 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed that Australia's private sector credit growth eased marginally in October.

Private sector credit rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in October, following a 0.2 percent increase in September. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent rise.

The loonie reversed from an early 3-day low of 1.3309 against the greenback, recovering to 1.3288. On the upside, 1.30 is possibly seen as the next resistance level for the currency.

The loonie rose back to 82.48 against the yen, not far from a 2-day peak of 82.51 set in the Asian session. Next key resistance for the loonie is seen around the 84.00 mark.

Data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's industrial production declined more than expected in October signaling a notable contraction in GDP during the fourth quarter.

Industrial output plunged 4.2 percent month-on-month in October, in contrast to September's 1.7 percent increase. Economists had forecast a moderate decrease of 2 percent.


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