Canadian Dollar Falls After BoC Decision

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar declined against its major counterparts in the New York session on Thursday, after the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged and downgraded its growth forecast for next two years amid worsening global economic conditions.

The BoC kept its key rate unchanged at 1.75 percent, as expected.

The bank said that economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of this year, reflecting trade uncertainty, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter.

"In considering the appropriate path for monetary policy, the Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment," according to the accompanying statement.

The Bank said it expects the real GDP to grow by 1.5 percent for this year, up from previous outlook of 1.5 percent.

For 2020 and 2021, the real GDP is seen at 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent, compared to earlier projections of 2 percent in both years.

The loonie depreciated to near a 2-week low of 1.3154 against the greenback, from a high of 1.3075 seen at 6:45 am ET. The loonie is seen finding support around the 1.33 region.

Data from payroll processor ADP showed that U.S. private sector employment increased slightly more than anticipated in October.

ADP said private sector employment climbed by 125,000 jobs in October compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 120,000 jobs.

After rising to 1.4528 at 9:15 am ET, the loonie fell to a 9-day low of 1.4616 against the euro. The next likely support for the loonie is seen around the 1.49 region.

Data from the Federal Employment Agency showed that German unemployment increased and the jobless rate remained unchanged in October.

The number of unemployed increased by a seasonally adjusted 6,000 after falling 9,000 in September. Economists had forecast a monthly rise of 3,000.

The loonie dipped to near a 3-week low of 0.9024 against the aussie, pulling away from a high of 0.8967 it touched at 8:15 pm ET. The loonie may possibly challenge support around the 0.92 level.

The loonie dropped to a weekly low of 82.81 the against yen, following an uptick to 83.28 at 9:15 am ET. On the downside, 78.5 is possibly seen as the next support level for the loonie.

Data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan retail sales climbed 9.1 percent on year in September - exceeding expectations for an increase of 6.0 percent following the 1.8 percent gain in August.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales spiked 7.1 percent - again topping expectations for 3.5 percent and up from 4.6 percent in the previous month.

Looking ahead, at 2:00 pm ET, the Fed announces its decision on interest rates. Economists widely expect the Fed to cut federal funds rate to between 1.50 percent and 1.75 percent.


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*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Climb By 5.7 Million Barrels In Week Ended 10/25

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Climb By 5.7 Million Barrels In Week Ended 10/25


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Belgium Economic Growth Improves In Q3

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Belgium's economy grew at a faster pace in the third quarter, preliminary estimates from the National Bank of Belgium showed on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product grew 0.4 percent from the second quarter, when the economy grew a revised 0.3 percent.

The economy stagnated in the first three months of the year after a robust 0.8 percent growth in the final quarter of 2018.

Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP rose 1.6 percent in the third quarter after a 1.3 percent increase in the previous three months.

The pace of annual growth was the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2017, when growth was 2 percent.


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October 30, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

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Since September 13, the EUR/USD has been trending-down within the previous short-term bearish channel until an Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern was demonstrated around 1.0880.

Shortly After, a bullish breakout above 1.0940 confirmed the mentioned reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020) maintaining bullish movement above the recent bullish trend.

On October 7, a sideway consolidation range was demonstrated around the price zone of (1.1000 -1.1020) before another bullish swing could be initiated towards 1.1175 where the current bearish pullback was recently originated.

Earlier this week, the short-term technical outlook has turned into bearish after breakdown below 1.1090 was achieved (the depicted uptrend line and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level).

However, recent bullish spikes have been demonstrated above (1.1090 - 1.1100 ). Thus, hindering further bearish decline until now.

Intraday destination remains unclear until bearish breakout below 1.1090 is re-established again.

On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1100-1.1120 should be watched for early bearish rejection and a possible Intraday SELL entry.

Quick bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1025 and 1.0995 provided that early bearish breakout below 1.1090 is established again.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders can have a valid SELL entry anywhere around the backside of the broken uptrend line (1.1100-1.1120).

Initial T/P levels to be projected towards 1.1065, 1.1020 and 1.0995 while S/L should be placed above 1.1160.

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France GDP Expands More Than Expected

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

France's economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter on household spending and investment, while its major counterpart Germany is forecast to enter a mild recession.

Gross domestic product climbed 0.3 percent sequentially, the same pace of growth as seen in the second quarter, the first estimate from the statistical office Insee showed Wednesday.

Economists had forecast GDP to grow at a slightly slower pace of 0.2 percent.

The expenditure-side breakdown of GDP showed that growth in household spending improved to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent, while growth in gross fixed capital formation decelerated to 0.9 percent from 1.2 percent.

Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.

In a separate communique, the Insee said household consumption expenditure on goods decreased 0.4 percent due to a 1.3 percent fall in manufactured good spending.

Imports rebounded in the third quarter, up 1.4 percent after falling 0.3 percent and exports grew 0.3 percent after a 0.1 percent drop. Consequently, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, by -0.4 points.

Further, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth by +0.1 points in the third quarter.

The big picture is that the French economy will be growing at a pretty sluggish pace over the next year or so amid a global and European downturn and tighter fiscal policy at home, Jessica Hinds, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The economist expects annual GDP growth to slow from around 1.2 percent this year to 0.8 percent in 2020.

The International Monetary Fund forecast France to grow 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.3 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the German GDP to grow only 0.5 percent this year.


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Australian Dollar Extends Gain

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The Australian dollar extended its early rally against its key counterparts in early European deals on Wednesday, as the nation's consumer price inflation rose in line with consensus for the third quarter, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Data the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that consumer prices rose 1.7 percent on year in the third quarter of 2019 - in line with expectations and up from 1.6 percent in the previous three months.

On a quarterly basis, inflation was up 0.5 percent - again matching expectations and down from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean came in at 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.6 percent on year - both unchanged and as expected.

Markets also braced for what seems almost assuredly to be a third rate cut in as many meetings of the Federal Reserve later today.

The Federal Open Market Committee announcement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET.

The aussie strengthened to an 8-day high of 0.6874 against the greenback and a 1-1/2-month high of 1.0824 against the kiwi, from its early lows of 0.6849 and 1.0785, respectively. The currency is seen finding resistance around 0.71 against the greenback and 1.10 against the kiwi.

Reversing from an early low of 74.53 against the yen, the aussie advanced to 74.82. On the upside, 1.10 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The aussie held steady against the loonie, after rising as high as 0.8994 at 9:00 pm ET, which was its highest level since October 22. The pair had ended Tuesday's trading at 0.8983.

The aussie appreciated to 1.6168 against the euro in the previous session and held steady thereafter. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 1.6187.

Looking ahead, Eurozone economic sentiment index for October is due in the European session.

At 8:15 am ET, U.S. ADP private payrolls data for October is scheduled for release.

The U.S. GDP data for the third quarter is due out in the New York session.

German flash inflation data for October will be published at 9:00 am ET.

At 10:00 am ET, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision. Economists widely expect the central bank to maintain the benchmark rate at 1.75 percent.

At 2:00 pm ET, the Fed announces its decision on interest rates. Economists widely expect the Fed to cut federal funds rate to between 1.50 percent and 1.75 percent.


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BTC 10.30.2019 -Potential gap fill on the Bitcoin

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading downside and the price tested the level of $9.000. I see potential chance for the gap fill and test of $8.770-$8.356. As long as the swing high at 9.934 is holding, there is the chance for the downside.

analytics5db99d2d7f078.jpg

Yellow rectangle – Resistance level

Falling white line – Expected path

Horizontal lines – Support levels

Based on the 4H time-frame, there is potential for the gap fill and test of $8.770. BTC is trading in defined downward channel and the sellers are in control for now. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities near the resistance zone $9.165 with the downward targets at $8.770 and $8.350.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

German Unemployment Rises In October

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

German unemployment increased and the jobless rate remained unchanged in October, data from the Federal Employment Agency showed Wednesday.

The number of unemployed increased by a seasonally adjusted 6,000 after falling 9,000 in September. Economists had forecast a monthly rise of 3,000.

The jobless rate held steady at 5 percent in October, which was in line with expectations and near a record low.

The current economic weakness is leaving its marks on the job market, said Federal Employment Agency Head Detlef Scheele. But all in all, it remains robust, Scheele added.


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Gold 10.30.2019 – Failed test of the Pitchfork median line, watch for downside break

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Gold is trading inside of the trading range at the price of $1.492. Anyway, I found few failed tests of the median line, which is sign that buyers don't have enough power for stronger upside break. Watch for potential breakout of support at $1.483 to confirm further downside movement.

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Yellow lines – Pitchfork upward channel

White falling lines – New Expected path

Horizontal white lines – Important resistance levels

Based on the 4H time-frame, I found that there is failed test of the yellow channel Median Line, which is sign that buyers didn't have enough power for the full-test. RSI oscillator showed us peak on the previous upside push and failed test of ML, which is another sign of the weakness. Downward objectives are set at $1.460 and $1.436. Key resistance is set at $1.517.

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Swiss Economic Growth Set To Stabilize At Lower Level: KOF

Trading 30 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Switzerland's economy is set to growth at below-average rates in the coming months, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute said, as the leading indicator halted its downward movement in October.

The KOF Economic Barometer climbed to 94.7 from 93.1 in September, which was revised from 93.2, survey data from the think tank showed on Wednesday. Economists had expected a score of 93.5.

The KOF attributed the latest increase in particular to bundles of indicators from the banking and insurance sector as well as from accommodation and food service activities.

Further, the indexes related to foreign demand and other services are pointing in a slightly less negative direction than in the previous month, the KOF said. Meanwhile, indicators from the manufacturing sector recorded a slight decline.

Early this month, the KOF slashed the Swiss economic growth forecasts for this year and next, citing the adverse impact from the global downturn.

The growth forecast for this year was cut to 0.9 percent from 1.6 percent. Excluding sporting events, growth is seen at 1.4 percent.

The economic growth outlook for next year was slashed to 1.9 percent from 2.3 percent. Excluding sporting events, growth is forecast at 1.5 percent.

For 2021, KOF sees growth of 1.5 percent and 1.8 percent excluding sporting events.


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