U.S. Leading Economic Index Unexpectedly Edges Lower In September

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Partly reflecting weakness in the manufacturing sector, the Conference Board released a report on Friday showing an unexpected drop in its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of September.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in September after dipping by a revised 0.2 percent in August.

Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.2 percent compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said the drop by the index reflected weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread, which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index.

"The LEI reflects uncertainty in the outlook and falling business expectations, brought on by the downturn in the industrial sector and trade disputes," said Ozyildirim.

He added, "Looking ahead, the LEI is consistent with an economy that is still growing, albeit more slowly, through the end of the year and into 2020."

The report also said the coincident economic index was unchanged in September after rising by 0.3 percent in August, while the lagging economic index crept up by 0.1 percent after falling by 0.4 percent.

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Russia CB Chief Nabiullina: GDP Growth To Return To 1.5-2% In 2020 – CNBC

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Russia's economic growth is expected to return to 1.5-2 percent next year, supported by stimulus from public spending and monetary policy, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said Friday.

"We think that budget policy will have a more stimulative stance and the normalization of our monetary policy will have additional positive effects on growth," Nabiullina told the broadcaster CNBC in an interview in Washington. In September, the central bank slashed its interest rate for a third consecutive policy session, in line with its guidance, and signaled more easing in future as growth remains below target and inflation expectations are elevated. The rate was cut by 25 basis points to 7 percent. The next policy session is due on October 25.

In June, the bank had slashed the rate by a quarter-point, which was the first reduction since March 2018.

Last month, the central bank also cut the GDP growth forecast for this year to 0.8-1.3 percent from 1-1.5 percent.

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*U.S. Leading Economic Index Dips 0.1% In September

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Leading Economic Index Dips 0.1% In September

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European Council Confirms Christine Lagarde As Next ECB Chief

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

European leaders on Friday confirmed the appointment of Christine Lagarde as the next president of the European Central Bank.

Lagarde, who is the former managing director of the International Monetary Fund, will take office on November 1, after the incumbent Mario Draghi steps down on October 31. She is the first woman to become the ECB chief.

The former French finance minister is set to inherit a fractured Governing Council as several hawkish policymakers, especially those from Germany, have voiced opposition to the latest round of stimulus measures announced in September.

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Turkish Lira Trades At 11-day High Against U.S. Dollar

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The Turkish Lira traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the European session on Friday, as the US and Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in northern Syria allowing Kurdish fighters to withdraw from the safe zone.

Under the deal, Kurdish forces who are allied with the US in the fight against ISIS will withdraw from Turkey's declared "safe zone" on the border.

The US has removed the threat of sanctions against Turkey.

The Turkish Lira firmed to an 11-day high of 5.76 against the greenback, from Thursday's closing value of 5.81, and held steady thereafter. The next likely upside target for the Turkish Lira is seen around the 4.5 level.

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October 18, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »


Since September 13, the EUR/USD has been trending-down within the depicted short-term bearish channel until signs of trend reversal were demonstrated around 1.0880 (Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern).

Shortly After, a bullish breakout above 1.0940 confirmed the mentioned reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020) maintaining bullish movement above the recent bullish trend.

Temporary bearish rejection and a sideway consolidation Range were demonstrated after hitting the price zone of (1.1000 -1.1020) on October 7.

That's why, initial Intraday bearish pullback was demonstrated towards 1.0940-10915 where another bullish swing was initiated.

The intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as long as the EUR/USD pair pursues its current movement above 1.0980 (Last Prominent Bottom).

Moreover, the current bullish breakout above 1.1120 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) should be maintained on a daily basis to ensure further bullish advancement towards 1.1175 and 1.1195.

Otherwise, any bearish closure below 1.1120 brings sideway consolidations even a bearish pullback towards 1.1065.

Trade recommendations :

Recent Intraday BUY entry was suggested around the price levels of 1.1000 (the depicted short-term bullish uptrend). All T/P levels were successfully reached.

Another valid BUY entry can be offered upon any bearish pullback towards 1.1065 where the depicted recent uptrend comes to meet the pair.

T/P levels to be located at 1.1120 then 1.1175. S/L should be placed below 1.1020.

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BoE's Ramsden Still Sees Scope For Rate Hikes If Brexit Goes Smooth: Report

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

If the UK moves out of the European Union smoothly, then the Bank of England has room to hike interest rates in a limited and gradual manner, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden told Bloomberg News in an interview.

"The kind of guidance we've been giving -- in the world of a deal it still applies," the banker said.

"We're not saying over what timeframe, but limited and gradual is a reasonable qualitative framing," said Ramsden.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker reached a new Brexit deal on Thursday. However, the proposed deal is expected to face stiff opposition in parliament when it is put to vote in the House of Commons on Saturday.

According to Ramsden, a transition agreement and clarity for U.K. businesses will bring some pickup in investment, which in turn would boost demand and productivity over time.

However, earlier this week, BoE policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said rate hikes would only eventually come back on the agenda if a Brexit deal is struck and that stimulate investment sufficiently to prevent the need for easier monetary policy.

Vlieghe said entrenched Brexit uncertainty is likely to keep economic growth below potential, and require some monetary stimulus.

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Hong Kong Jobless Rate Steady In September

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Hong Kong's jobless rate remained stable during the July to September period, data from the Census and Statistics Department showed on Friday.

The unemployment rate was 2.9 percent during the July to September period, the same rate as seen during the June to August period.

The number of unemployed persons was 120,300 during the July to September period, broadly the same as seen in the previous three months.

Employment decreased by around 8,200 persons to 3.85 million.

"Weak local consumption and plunging visitor arrivals caused by local social incidents continued to weigh on the labor market," the Secretary for Labor and Welfare Law Chi-kwong said.

The unemployment rate of the consumption- and tourism-related segment, which includes retail, accommodation and food services sectors, increased further to 4.9 percent the highest in more than two years, the official said.

The unemployment rate of the food and beverage service activities sector rose sharply to a six-year high of 6.0 percent, Law said.

"Worsened economic conditions will put increasing pressure on the local labor market in the near term," the official added.

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Australian Dollar Extends Rally

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The Australian dollar continued to be higher against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as upbeat Chinese industrial production figures offset concerns over weak GDP data.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Chinese industrial production advanced 5.8 percent annually in September after rising 4.4 percent in August. Output was expected to climb 4.9 percent.

Annual growth in retail sales increased to 7.8 percent, in line with expectations.

Nonetheless, GDP grew 6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter after rising 6.2 percent in the second quarter, Growth was forecast to slow marginally to 6.1 percent.

Underlying sentiment was subdued amid doubts about the merits of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal and about the likelihood of the deal getting through the British parliament.

Speaking to a forum at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Washington, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said negative interest rates are extraordinarily unlikely.

"I'm not going to speculate on negative interest rates or quantitative easing in Australia, other than to say negative interest rates are extraordinarily unlikely in my country."

The currency has been trading modestly higher against its most major counterparts in the Asian session.

The aussie strengthened to more than a 4-week high of 0.6842 against the greenback from Thursday's closing value of 0.6824. The currency may possibly challenge resistance around the 0.71 level.

The aussie rose to 74.35 against the yen, from a low of 74.07 hit at 7:45 pm ET. The aussie is seen locating resistance around the 79.00 level.

Japan's government lowered its economic assessment as exports are expected to remain weak for a longer period.

The cabinet office repeated that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace but said the "weakness lasting longer mainly in exports." In September, the report said the weakness is continuing mainly in exports.

The aussie edged higher to 1.6265 against the euro, following a decline to 1.6307 at 7:45 pm ET. If the aussie rallies further, it is likely to test resistance around the 1.60 mark.

The Australian currency was trading higher at 0.8986 against the loonie, up from Thursday's closing value of 0.8964. On the upside, 0.92 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The aussie rebounded to 1.0741 against the kiwi, from a 2-day low of 1.0716 seen at 12:15 am ET. The next possible resistance for the aussie is seen around the 1.08 level.

Looking ahead, the U.S. leading index for September is scheduled for release in the New York session.

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Poland Industrial Production Rises More Than Expected

Trading 18 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Poland's industrial production rose at a faster-than-expected rate in September, figures from the Statistics Poland showed on Friday.

Industrial production rose 5.6 percent year-on-year in September. Economists had expected a 5.0 percent increase.

Manufacturing output rose 5.7 percent annually in September.

Production of water supply grew 9.0 percent and those of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and mining and quarrying rose 3.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

On a monthly basis, industrial production gained 10.7 percent in September.

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