Oil Ends Sharply Lower On Slightly Fading Optimism Over Trade Deal

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures drifted lower on Monday as weak data out of China and fading optimism about U.S.-China trade deal raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand.

Brexit concerns weighed as well on the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for November ended down $1.11, or about 2%, at $53.59 a barrel.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for November ended up $1.15, or 2.2%, at $54.70 a barrel, after having gained about 1.8% a session earlier. Crude oil futures gained 3.6% last week.

On the Brexit front, Britain and the European Union said on Sunday that a lot of work remains to be done to secure an agreement on Britain's departure from the bloc.

In trade news, the U.S. and China reached a phase one deal late on Friday, but scant details about the deal cast doubts over the durability of the partial preliminary deal.

The real sticking points of technology transfer and intellectual property theft do not find any significant mention in the proposed deal.

Although the U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that the U.S. and China have reached a "very substantial phase one deal," it now turns out China wants another round of talks before signing the agreement.

According to a report in Bloomberg News, China may send a delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He to finalize a written deal that could be signed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month in Chile.

Also, China reportedly wants a planned tariff hike in December to be scrapped in addition to the hike scheduled for this week.

In economic news from China, official data from the General Administration of Customs showed China's exports declined more than expected in September reflecting weak global growth and trade disputes with the U.S. administration.

In dollar terms, exports fell 3.2% year-on-year in the month, bigger than the expected 3% decrease and prior month's 1% fall.

At the same time, imports decreased 8.5% annually versus the expected decline of 6%. As a result, the trade surplus increased to $39.65 billion from $34.83 billion a month ago.


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Gold Comes Off 2-week Lows, Ends Higher On Trade Deal Uncertainty

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on safe-haven appeal on Monday amid some uncertainty about U.S.-China trade agreement on reports China wants another round of talks before signing the 'phase one deal.'

Uncertainty over Brexit and weak data out of China weighed on riskier assets such as equities.

However, the dollar's advance against most major currencies limited the yellow metal's gains.

The dollar index was last seen at 98.50, up more than 0.2% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $8.90, or about 0.6%, at $1,497.60 an ounce, after advancing to a high of $1,501.50.

On Friday, gold futures settled with a loss of $12.20, or 0.8%, at $1,488.70 an ounce, the lowest level in about two weeks. Gold futures shed about 1.6% last week.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.166, at $17.710 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6340 per pound, gaining $0.0060 for the session.

The U.S. and China reached a phase one deal late on Friday, but scant details about the deal cast doubts over the durability of the partial preliminary deal.

The deal hardly touches on the real sticking points of technology transfer and intellectual property theft.

Although the U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that the U.S. and China have reached a "very substantial phase one deal," it now turns out China wants another round of talks before signing the agreement.

According to a report in Bloomberg News, China may send a delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He to finalize a written deal that could be signed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month in Chile.

Another source reportedly told Bloomberg that China wants a planned tariff hike in December to be scrapped in addition to the hike scheduled for this week.


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October 14, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical outlook turned into bullish. Further bullish advancement to be anticipated.

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

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Recent Descending-Tops were established around the price levels of 1.1060-1.1075 where the backside of a recently-broken trend was retested.

Shortly-After, the EUR/USD has been trending-down within the depicted short-term bearish channel until recent signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.0880 (Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern).

Shortly After, a bullish breakout above 1.0960 confirmed the mentioned reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020) where another episode of bearish rejection was expected on October 7.

That's why, initial Intraday bearish pullback was expected towards 1.0940-10915 where another bullish swing was initiated as expected.

The intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as long as the EURUSD pair pursues its current movement above 1.0980 (recent ascending bottom).

Moreover, the current bullish breakout above 1.1030 (0% Fibonacci Expansion) should be maintained.

Thus, the short-term projection target remains projected towards 1.1065 and 1.1115.

Bullish persistence above 1.1065 is mandatory to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1115. Otherwise, sideway consolidations may be demonstrated until bullish breakout is achieved.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday BUY entry was suggested upon the recent bearish pullback towards 1.1000 (Backside of the broken bullish uptrend). It's already running in profits.

Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1065 then 1.1115. S/L should be placed below 1.0960.

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October 14, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

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On September 20, Recent episode of bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2550 where a short-term reversal channel was demonstrated.

As anticipated, the reversal pattern was confirmed to the downside on September 23 demonstrating a successful bearish closure below 1.2450.

On September 25, the depicted bullish channel was finally terminated with significant full-body bearish candlesticks which managed to achieve bearish closure below 1.2395.

Bearish persistence below 1.2400-1.2440 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) allowed more bearish decline to occur towards the price levels of 1.2210 where a recent Double-Bottom reversal pattern was originated with neckline located around 1.2400.

Last week, the price zone of 1.2400-1.2415 (reversal pattern neckline) was breached to the upside allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2485, 1.2620 then 1.2680.

Bullish breakout above 1.2680 was needed to bring further bullish advancement towards 1.2840 (1.61% Fibonacci Expansion).

However, By the end of last week, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around 1.2680 (100% Fibonacci Expansion)

That's why, sideway consolidations may be demonstrated between 1.2680-1.2620 until breakout occurs in either directions (More probably to the downside).

Bearish closure below 1.2620 will probably bring further bearish decline towards 1.2470 and 1.2400 where bullish rejection and another long-term bullish swing should be expected.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders are advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2680 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels to be placed around 1.2620, 1.2550 and 1.2470 while S/L should be placed above 1.2720.

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Sweden September Jobless Rate Climbs

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Sweden's jobless rate rose marginally in September amid the first increase in youth unemployment in six years, data from the Swedish Public Employment Service on Monday.

The jobless rate rose to 7.0 percent in September from 6.9 percent in the same month previous year.

The number of unemployed persons increased to 353,499 in September from 342,750 in the previous year.

The youth unemployment rate, applied for the age group of 18 to 24, rose to 9.1 percent in September from 9.0 percent in the last year.

The increase in the youth unemployment rate was the first since 2013, the agency said.

The number of youth unemployed persons went up to 49,265 from 48,610.

Anders Ljungberg, head of unit for labor market analysis at the PES, attributed the increase in youth unemployment to the slowdown in the economy as young people often have less secure forms of employment.


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U.S. Dollar Trades Lower On Trade Uncertainty

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar traded lower against its most major counterparts in the European session on Monday, as optimism over the U.S-China trade deal receded after China sought further talks before sealing the partial trade deal claimed by President Donald Trump.

Bloomberg reported that China wanted more talks by the end of October to finalize the "phase one" trade deal which had been agreed on Friday.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, China's top negotiator, may head the delegation to discuss the details of the "phase one" trade deal that could be signed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month in Chile.

China has asked to abandon a planned tariff hike in December in addition to the hike scheduled for this week, it added.

Weak China trade data added to concerns about global growth.

China's import and export figures for September both came in worse than expected, official data showed.

The economic calendar is light in observance of Columbus Day holiday in the U.S.

The currency traded mixed against its major counterparts in the previous session. While it fell against the yen and the franc, it rose against the pound. Against the euro, it held steady.

The greenback slipped to a 4-day low of 0.9944 against the franc, from last week's closing value of 0.9966. The greenback is seen finding support around the 0.96 level.

The greenback edged down to 108.03 against the yen, from a high of 108.52 seen at 7:00 pm ET. The next likely support for the greenback lies around the 106.00 level.

Pulling away from a high of 1.1013 hit at 2:45 am ET, the greenback weakened to 1.1043 against the euro. If the greenback drops further, 1.12 is possibly seen as its next support level.

Data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone industrial production expanded in August after easing for two straight months.

Industrial output grew 0.4 percent month-on-month, offsetting a 0.4 percent fall in July. This was the first rise in three months.

On the other hand, the greenback strengthened to 1.2516 against the pound from Friday's closing value of 1.2644. On the upside, 1.24 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The greenback was trading higher at 1.3223 against the loonie, compared to last week's closing quote of 1.3192. The currency is likely to locate resistance around the 1.35 level.

The greenback appreciated to 4-day highs of 0.6752 against the aussie and 0.6284 against the kiwi, from Friday's closing values of 0.6790 and 0.6335, respectively. The greenback is seen finding resistance around 0.66 against the aussie and 0.61 against the kiwi.


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China Car Sales Drop For 15 Months

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

China's car sales fell for the fifteenth consecutive month in September, figures from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, or CAAM, showed on Monday.

Car sales decreased 5.2 percent year-on-year to 2.271 million units.

However, car sales grew 16 percent from the previous month.

Production of cars decreased 6.2 percent year-on-year to 2.209 million units, but rose 11 percent from August.

In September, automobile exports rose 6.3 percent year-on-year to 90,000 vehicles.

Thus, sales have remained lackluster in the "Golden September, Silver October" period when vehicles sales are traditionally seen picking up.

In the January to September period, car sales decreased 10.3 percent year-on-year and production fell 11.4 percent.


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Slovakia Inflation Rises In September

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Slovakia's consumer price inflation rose marginally in September after slowing in the previous month, figures from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic showed on Monday.

The consumer price index rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in September, after a 2.8 percent increase in August. A similar rate of inflation was seen in July.

Price for food and non-alcoholic beverages gained 4.9 percent annually in September and those for education rose 4.8 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent increase in the previous month.

The core inflation grew to 2.9 percent in September from 2.8 percent in the preceding month.

On a monthly basis, the core CPI rose 0.2 percent in September, after a 0.1 percent increase in the prior month.


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Gold 10.14.2019 – Sell zone on the Gold

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Gold is still trading in the channel that we defined days ago. I still expect more downside and potential test of 1,460. Most recently, I found bearish flag in creation on the 4H time-frame.

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Yellow rectangle – Important support level

Down parallel line – Downward channel

Purple falling line – Expected path

Watch for potential selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the bear flag. MACD is still in the negative territory and there is potential for new momentum down on the oscillator. Selling opportunities are preferable with the target at 1.460. Resistance level is found at the price of 1.497. As long as the Gold is trading inside of the downward channel, I would watch for selling opportunities.

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India Inflation Rises In September

Trading 14 oct 2019 Commentaire »

India's consumer price inflation increased moderately in September, data from the statistics ministry revealed Monday.

Consumer prices advanced 3.99 percent year-on-year in September, faster than August's 3.28 percent rise. In the same period last year, inflation was 3.7 percent.

Food price inflation accelerated to 5.11 percent from 2.99 percent in August.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.55 percent and food prices rose 0.9 percent in September.

However, data released earlier in the day showed that wholesale price inflation slowed to 0.33 percent from 1.08 percent in August.

The central bank targets consumer price inflation of 4 percent within a band of +/- 2 percent over the medium term.


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