*Federal Reserve Releases Minutes Of September Monetary Policy Meeting

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Federal Reserve Releases Minutes Of September Monetary Policy Meeting


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Ten-Year Note Auction Attracts Slightly Above Average Demand

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department announced the results of this month's auction of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday, revealing the auction attracted slightly above average demand.

The ten-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.590 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $24 billion worth of ten-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.739 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous ten-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to announce the results of its auction of $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.


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October 9, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

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Recent Descending-Tops were established around the price levels of 1.1060-1.1075 where the backside of both broken trends was retested.

This rendered the recent bullish spike above 1.1100 as a bullish trap.

Since then, the EURUSD has been trending-down within the depicted short-term bearish channel until recent signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.0880 (Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern).

Shortly After, a bullish breakout above 1.0960 confirmed the mentioned reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020) where another episode of bearish rejection should be expected.

The intermediate-term outlook turned into bullish as long as the EURUSD pair pursues its current movement below 1.1030.

However, initial Intraday bearish pullback should be expected towards 1.0940-10915 where another bullish swing will probably be initiated.

On the other hand, If bullish persistence above 1.1030 (0% Fibonacci Expansion) is established earlier, the long-term projection target would be projected towards 1.1115 (Low Probability Scenario).

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders were advised to consider the recent bullish breakout above 1.0960 as a valid BUY signal. Initial bullish target level was already reached around 1.1000.

Another Intraday BUY entry can be considered upon a bearish pullback towards 1.0915-1.0940 (Backside of the broken bearish channel).

T/P levels to be located at 1.0960, 1.1000 and 1.1029. S/L should be placed below 1.0870.

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October 9, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical outlook and trade recommendations.

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

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On August 9, the depicted bullish channel has been established.

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending-up except on September 3 when a temporary bearish breakout was demonstrated towards 1.1960.

Around the price level of 1.1960, aggressive signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) brought the GBPUSD back inside the depicted movement channel.

Moreover, Temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2550 where a short-term reversal channel was demonstrated.

As anticipated, the reversal channel was broken-down on September 23 supported by obvious bearish price action demonstrating a successful bearish closure below 1.2450.

On September 25, the depicted bullish channel was finally terminated with significant full-body bearish candlesticks which managed to achieve bearish closure below 1.2395.

The Short-term outlook remains bearish as long as the most recent top established around 1.2400 remains defended by the GBP/USD bears.

Bearish persistence below 1.2400-1.2440 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) allowed more bearish decline to occur towards the price levels of 1.2210 where recent bullish pullback towards 1.2400 was previously originated on October 2.

This week, the price zone of 1.2300-1.2330 (Fibonacci Cluster Zone) remains a significant SUPPLY zone to be watched for SELL entries if any bullish pullback occurs.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.2220 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.2160 and 1.2120.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders are advised to consider any bullish pullback towards the Fibonacci Cluster Zone (Anywhere around 1.2300-1.2330) as a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels to be placed around 1.2330, 1.2280, 1.2240 and 1.2160 while S/L should be placed above 1.2450.

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*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 2.9 Million Barrels In Week Ended 10/4

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 2.9 Million Barrels In Week Ended 10/4


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U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Less Than Expected In August

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed a modest increase in U.S. wholesale inventories in the month of August.

The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories edged up by 0.2 percent in August, matching the uptick in July. Economists had expected inventories to increase by 0.4 percent.

The report said inventories of durable goods rose by 0.3 percent, while inventories of non-durable goods crept up by 0.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said wholesale sales came in virtually unchanged in August after rising by 0.2 percent in July.

Wholesale sales were unchanged as a 0.3 percent increase in sales of durable goods was offset by a 0.3 percent drop in sales of non-durable goods.

The report also said the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers came in at 1.36 in August, unchanged from the previous month.


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Gold 10.09.2019 – 2 potential scenarios for the FOMC

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,507. Currently the Gold is at the resistance (yellow rectangle) and it is not good for buying at this stage. There is potential for downside move towards the $1,497-$1,486.

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Yellow rectangle – Resistance levels

Red rectangles – Support levels

Purple lines – Potential scenarios

Today is FOMC day and I see two potential scenarios.

Scenario 1:

The breakout above the $1,511 will confirm potential test of $1,534 (swing high).

Scenario 2:

In case that you don't see breakout of resistance, watch for selling opportunities to the downside with targets at $1,497 and $1,486.

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GBP/USD 10.09.2019 – Is the GBP ready for new downward move?

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

GBP has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2218. I found strong rejection of the 20SMA on the 4H time-frame, which is sign that sellers are still present. Bearish flag is in creation and I expect –potential more downside. Today we have FOMC meeting minutes, which is the reason why the currencies are in equilibrium. Market is awaiting for new informations.

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Green rectangle – Broken support became resistance

Orange rectangle – Support level

Purple falling line – Expected path

Bearish flag is in creation based on the 4H time-frame. Watch for potential breakout to the downside to confirm further downward continuation. I found broken Head and Shoulders pattern in the background, which is another good sign that sellers are present. Resistance level is found at the price of 1.2230 and support level at 1.2110.

Selling opportunities are preferable.

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*U.S. Job Openings Dip To 7.051 Million In August

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Job Openings Dip To 7.051 Million In August


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*U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.2% In August

Trading 09 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.2% In August


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