U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Slows In September

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Adding to signs of a slowdown in the U.S. job market, payroll processor ADP released a report on Wednesday showing private sector employment rose by slightly less than expected in the month of September.

ADP said private sector employment climbed by 135,000 jobs in September compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 140,000 jobs.

The report also showed a significant downward revision to the increase in private sector jobs in August, which was slashed to 157,000 jobs from the originally reported 195,000 jobs.

"Businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "If businesses pull back any further, unemployment will begin to rise."

Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 127,000 jobs, reflecting notable job growth in the education and health services and trade, transportation and utilities industries.

Meanwhile, the report said employment in the goods-producing sector crept up by 8,000 jobs, as an uptick in construction jobs was partly offset by the loss of natural resources and mining jobs.

ADP also said employment at large businesses climbed by 67,000 jobs, while employment at medium and small businesses rose by 39,000 jobs and 30,000 jobs, respectively.

Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, noted the average monthly job growth for the past three months has fallen to 145,000 from 214,000 in the same time period last year.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched monthly jobs report, which includes both public and private sector jobs.

Employment is expected to increase by 140,000 jobs in September after rising by 130,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.7 percent.


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Gold 10.02.2019 – First upward target has been met, more upside yet to come

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price had a nice push higher and our first upward target from yesterday was met at the price of $1485. Anyway, I still expect more upside and at least another upward swing. Next upward levels are set at $1,500 and $1,511.

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Yellow rectangles – Important resistance levels and upward objectives

Green rectangle - major support area

Purple rising line – Expected path

MACD oscillator is showing good new momentum up in the background and I do expect at least another push higher. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips using 5/15 minutes time-frame for better entries. There is also a failed HSS pattern in creation, which may lead Gold to higher levels.

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Dollar Little Changed Following ADP Private Payrolls Data

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Following the release of the U.S. ADP private payrolls data for September at 8:15 am ET Wednesday, the greenback changed little against its major rivals.

The greenback was trading at 107.50 against the yen, 1.0012 against the franc, 1.2285 against the pound and 1.0928 against the euro around 8:19 am ET.


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*U.S. Private Sector Employment Rises By 135,000 Jobs In September

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Private Sector Employment Rises By 135,000 Jobs In September


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October 2, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical outlook and trade recommendations.

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

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Since August 9, the GBP/USD pair has been trending-up within the depicted bullish channel except on September 3 when a temporary bearish breakout was demonstrated towards 1.1960.

Around the price level of 1.1960, aggressive signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) brought the GBPUSD back above 1.2230 where the pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 maintaining the bullish movement inside the depicted movement channel.

Moreover, Temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2550 where a reversal wedge pattern was established.

As anticipated, the reversal wedge pattern was confirmed Last week on Monday's consolidations supported by obvious bearish price action demonstrating a successful bearish closure below 1.2450.

On September 24, the backside of the confirmed reversal wedge was successfully re-tested around 1.2500 where a new episode of bearish rejection was expressed.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the most recent top established around 1.2500 remains defended by the GBP/USD bears.

Bearish persistence below 1.2400-1.2440 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) allowed more bearish decline to occur towards the price levels of 1.2210 where early signs of bullish rejection has been demonstrated since Yesterday.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the backside of the broken channel (Anywhere around 1.2400-1.2450) for another valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2360, 1.2330 and 1.2280 while S/L should be set as a H4 candlestick closure above 1.2450.

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Short-term EURUSD analysis for October 2nd, 2019

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD is trading above 1.09 and is making higher highs and higher lows in intraday time frame. If price breaks above 1.0940 I expect to see EURUSD reach at least 1.0970 if not higher. As long as price is above 1.0905 bulls expect to see more upside.

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Red rectangle - 1 hour resistance

EURUSD is showing short-term reversal signs. Price has the potential to move towards 1.0970 and higher as long as price holds above 1.09 and if we break above 1.0940. At 1.0970 we also find the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire leg down from 1.1110 to 1.0880. So this level is pretty important resistance. If this resistance is broken, we could see a bounce higher towards 1.1020.

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Gold price back tests broken support now resistance

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price is bouncing after making a low yesterday at $1,459. Price has reached our first target area and is now bouncing towards the key resistance that was once support. Recapturing $1,500 is key for the short-term trend.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Blue rectangle - resistance

Gold price is trying to move above the resistance area around $1,500 which was once support. Gold price is bouncing after the 100% extension target was hit. This could very well be a selling opportunity bounce for Gold. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below $1,535. If price breaks above $1,535 would should expect $1,600 to be reached. However I believe it is more probable to see another lower high and then a downward reversal. Support is now at $1,474 and if we see this level broken then I would expect price to move towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension lower.

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*Poland Central Bank Holds Key Rate At 1.50%

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Poland Central Bank Holds Key Rate At 1.50%


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Hungary Exports Rise In July

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Hungary's exports rose in July after falling in the previous month, data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office showed on Wednesday.

The nonadjusted exports grew 8.1 percent year-on-year following a 6.7 percent slump in the previous month. Imports rose 9.6 percent after a 1 percent decline.

The trade surplus decreased to EUR 204 million in July from 257 million in the same period last year. In June, the trade surplus was EUR 488 million.

Exports rose a calendar-adjusted 3.7 percent year-on-year in July, after a 1.5 percent fall in June. In May, exports rose 4.3 percent.

Imports grew 7.2 percent annually in July, following a 3.2 percent rise in the previous month.

In the January to July period, exports and imports rose by 3.7 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of EUR 3.3 billion.


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Hong Kong Retail Sales Fall For Seventh Month

Trading 02 oct 2019 Commentaire »

Hong Kong's retail sales declined for the seventh straight month in August, provisional figures from the Census and Statistics Department showed on Wednesday.

The volume of retail sales dropped 25.3 percent year-on-year in August, following a 13.1 percent fall in July.

The value of retail sales decreased 23.0 percent in August, following a 11.5 percent in the previous month. Economists had expected a 14.0 percent fall.

Sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts declined 47.4 percent in August and that of clothing, footwear and allied products fell 32.1 percent.

"Apart from the weak consumer sentiment amid subdued economic conditions, the plunge in August mainly reflected the severe disruptions to inbound tourism and consumption-related activities caused by the local social incidents," a government spokesman said.


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