Treasuries Move Notably Higher Amid Worries About Economy, Impeachment

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries moved significantly higher over the course of the trading session on Tuesday, extending the strong upward move seen in recent sessions.

Bond prices moved steadily higher as the day progressed before closing firmly in positive territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slumped by 7.3 basis points to 1.635 percent.

Treasuries extended an early upward move following the release of a report from the Conference Board showing a substantial deterioration in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of September.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index tumbled to 125.1 in September from a downwardly revised 134.2 in August.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to dip to 133.0 from the 135.1 originally reported for the previous month.

Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, said an escalation in trade and tariff tensions in late August appears to have rattled consumers.

"However, this pattern of uncertainty and volatility has persisted for much of the year and it appears confidence is plateauing," Franco said.

She added, "While confidence could continue hovering around current levels for months to come, at some point this continued uncertainty will begin to diminish consumers' confidence in the expansion."

The sharp drop in consumer confidence raised concerns about the economic outlook, increasing the appeal of safe havens such as bonds.

Treasuries saw further upside in afternoon trading amid reports House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is prepared to announce a formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump.

Answering a question about impeaching Trump at The Atlantic Festival in Washington, D.C., Pelosi noted Democrats have been waiting until they are "ready."

"That's why I've said as soon as we have the facts, we're ready. Now we have the facts, we're ready ... for later today," Pelosi said.

According to NBC News, Pelosi is expected to make a statement around 5 pm ET following meetings with congressional leadership and members of the Democratic caucus.

Meanwhile, Trump has authorized the release of the transcript of a controversial call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that has renewed Democratic calls for his impeachment.

Trump said on Twitter on Tuesday that he will release the "complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript" of his conversation with Zelensky in an effort to derail the continuation of the Democrats' "Destructive Witch Hunt."

The president has come under fire amid allegations he threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine unless Zelensky conducted an investigation of former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

News on the impeachment front may continue to impact trading on Wednesday, potentially overshadowing a report on new home sales.

The Treasury Department is also scheduled to announce the results of this month's auction of $41 billion worth of five-year notes.


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Trump To Release Ukraine Call Transcript As Pelosi Readies Impeachment Inquiry

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

President Donald Trump has authorized the release of the transcript of a controversial call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that has renewed Democratic calls for his impeachment.

Trump said on Twitter on Tuesday that he will release the "complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript" of his conversation with Zelensky in an effort to derail the continuation of the Democrats' "Destructive Witch Hunt."

"I am currently at the United Nations representing our Country, but have authorized the release tomorrow of the complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript of my phone conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine," Trump tweeted,

"You will see it was a very friendly and totally appropriate call. No pressure and, unlike Joe Biden and his son, NO quid pro quo!" he added. "This is nothing more than a continuation of the Greatest and most Destructive Witch Hunt of all time!"

Trump has come under fire amid allegations he threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine unless Zelensky conducted an investigation of former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

Biden, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, has been accused of improperly pressuring Ukraine to fire then-General Prosecutor Viktor Shokin amid concerns he was investigating a Ukrainian natural gas company whose board Hunter Biden served on.

The president has admitted discussing the issue with Zelensky but has repeatedly claimed there was "no quid pro quo."

The decision to release the transcript of the call with Zelensky comes amid reports House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is prepared to announce a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump on Tuesday.

Answering a question about impeaching Trump at The Atlantic Festival in Washington, D.C., Pelosi noted Democrats have been waiting until they are "ready."

"That's why I've said as soon as we have the facts, we're ready. Now we have the facts, we're ready ... for later today," Pelosi said.

According to NBC News, Pelosi is expected to make a statement around 5 pm ET following meetings with congressional leadership and members of the Democratic caucus.

(Photo: Gage Skidmore)


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Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower Ahead Of Inventory Data

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices drifted down sharply on Tuesday as weak economic data from Asia, Europe and the U.S. raised concerns about near term energy demand.

Oil prices fell despite a likely drop in supply due to the recent onslaught on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities.

According to reports, Saudi Arabia said it has restored about 75% crude output lost after the attacks on its facilities and production would be normal by early next week.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani reportedly said he is open to discuss small changes to the 2015 nuclear deal if the U.S. lifted sanctions on his country.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended down $1.35, or 2.3%, at $57.29 a barrel.

On Monday, WTI crude oil futures for November ended up $0.55, or about 1%, at $58.64 a barrel.

Britain, France and Germany have joined the United States in blaming Iran for the recent attacks on key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The Iranian foreign minister pointed to claims of responsibility by Yemeni rebels and said: "If Iran were behind this attack, nothing would have been left of this refinery."

Meanwhile, speaking at the United Nations General Assembly today, U.S. President Donald Trump called on countries across the globe to tighten the economic noose around Iran's economy and said no country should support Iran's "blood lust."

Markets now await the weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

While API's weekly oil report is due later today, the EIA's inventory data will be out at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday.


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Two-Year Note Auction Attracts Above Average Demand

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Kicking off this week's announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department revealed Tuesday that this month's auction of $40 billion worth of two-year notes attracted above average demand.

The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.612 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes, drawing a high yield of 1.516 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56.

The Treasury is due to announce the results of its auctions of $41 billion worth of five-year notes and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.


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Gold Futures Settle At 3-week High

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, extending recent gains, on safe-haven appeal after equities reeled under pressure on weak economic data and geopolitical worries.

After finding some support early on in the session on renewed optimism about trade talks after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said negotiations between China and the U.S. will resume in a couple of weeks, stocks retreated on weak consumer confidence data and President Donald Trump's hawkish speech at the United Nations General Assembly.

Trump called on all nations to tighten the economic noose around Iran's economy and said no country should support Iran's "blood lust."

This hard-line stance of the U.S. President weighed on investor sentiment and prompted them to seek safe haven assets.

The dollar index declined to 98.32 and was last seen at 98.40, down by about 0.2% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $8.70, or about 0.6%, at $1,540.20 an ounce, the highest settlement in about three weeks.

On Monday, gold futures for December ended up $16.40, or about 1.1%, at $1,531.50 an ounce, after having advanced 0.6% a session earlier.

Silver futures for December ended down $0.083, at $18.628 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled lower by $0.0050, at $2.6065 per pound.

According to a report released by the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated by much more than anticipated in the month of September.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index tumbled to 125.1 in September from a downwardly revised 134.2 in August. Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to dip to 133.0 from the 135.1 originally reported for the previous month.


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September 24, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »
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Few weeks ago, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0965 - 1.0950 where the backside of the broken channel came to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Intraday traders were advised to search for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.0950. Target levels were successfully reached within the recent bullish movement during last weeks' consolidations.

Shortly After, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where significant bearish pressure pushed the pair directly towards 1.0940 (Prominent Weekly Bottom).

Bearish Breakout below the price level of 1.0940 was needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

However, considerable bullish rejection was demonstrated as a quick bullish spike towards 1.1100 where another episode of bearish rejection was expressed.

Currently, the EUR/USD is trapped within a narrow consolidation range extending between (1.0990 - 1.1090) until breakout occurs in either directions.

By the end of last week's consolidations, Bearish Breakout below 1.1025 was demonstrated. This renders the recent bullish spike as a bullish trap.

That's why, initial bearish decline was expected towards 1.0940-1.0920 while the price levels around 1.1030 remain significant supply levels to be watched for bearish rejection.

Any bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1030 should be considered as a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, Bullish breakout above 1.1080 gives an early signal of short-term bullish reversal possibility as a bullish double-bottom pattern with a projected target towards 1.1175 (Low probability).

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders are advised to wait for a continuation of the current bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1030 for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should placed above 1.1090. Initial Target levels should be located at 1.0965 and 1.0930.

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September 24, 2019 : The GBP/USD outlook indicates further bearish decline by demonstrating a reversal wedge pattern.

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

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On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established between the price levels of (1.2100 - 1.2220) except on August 9 when temporary bearish decline below 1.2100 was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending-up within the depicted bullish channel except on September 3 when a temporary bearish breakout was demonstrated towards 1.1960.

Around the price level of 1.1960, aggressive signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) brought the GBPUSD back above 1.2230 where the pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 maintaining the bullish movement inside the depicted movement channel.

As Expected, Temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2500 where the upper limit of the current movement channel has been applying considerable bearish rejection since September 13.

Last week, recent bullish trials were expressed towards 1.2500 - 1.2550 where bearish rejection and a reversal wedge pattern was established there.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2500 - 1.2550 remains defended by the GBP/USD bears.

Earlier this week, a reversal wedge pattern has been established around the mentioned Supply Levels (1.2500 - 1.2550) which was confirmed by the end of Yesterday's consolidations.

Today, the backside of the confirmed reversal wedge is being re-tested where a new episode of bearish rejection is anticipated.

Moreover, Bearish persistence below 1.2440-1.2400 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) is needed to turn the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline to occur towards the lower limit of the movement channel around 1.2330.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can look for a valid SELL entry around the current price levels of 1.2480-1.2550.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2330, 1.2280 and 1.2220 while S/L should be set as a H4 candlestick closure above 1.2550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Much More Than Expected

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated by much more than anticipated in the month of September.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index tumbled to 125.1 in September from a downwardly revised 134.2 in August.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to dip to 133.0 from the 135.1 originally reported for the previous month.

Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, said an escalation in trade and tariff tensions in late August appears to have rattled consumers.

"However, this pattern of uncertainty and volatility has persisted for much of the year and it appears confidence is plateauing," Franco said.

She added, "While confidence could continue hovering around current levels for months to come, at some point this continued uncertainty will begin to diminish consumers' confidence in the expansion."

The bigger than expected drop by the consumer confidence index reflected notable decreases by both the present situation index and the expectations index.

The present situation index slumped to 176.0 in September from 169.0 in August, as consumers' appraisal of current-day conditions was somewhat less favorable.

The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are "good" fell to 37.3 percent from 40.9 percent and the percentage saying conditions are "bad" climbed to 12.7 percent from 9.9 percent.

Consumers' assessment of the job market was also less favorable, with those saying jobs are "plentiful" dropping to 44.8 percent from 50.3 percent, although those claiming jobs are "hard to get" also edged down to 11.6 percent from 12.0 percent.

Reflecting less optimism about the short-term outlook, the expectations index also plunged to 95.8 in September from 106.4 in August.

Consumers expecting business conditions will be better six months from now dipped to 19.0 percent from 21.6 percent and those expecting business conditions will worsen rose to 14.3 percent from 10.2 percent.

The outlook for the labor market was also less upbeat, with consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead falling to 17.5 percent from 19.9 percent and those anticipating fewer jobs ticking up to 15.7 percent from 13.7 percent.

On Friday, the University of Michigan is scheduled to release its revised reading on consumer sentiment in the month of September.

The consumer sentiment index is expected to be unrevised from the preliminary reading of 92.0, which was up from 89.8 in August.


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Dollar Drops Following U.S. Consumer Confidence Index

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

After the release of U.S. consumer confidence index for September at 10.00 am ET Tuesday, the greenback declined against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 107.53 against the yen, 0.9883 against the franc, 1.1008 against the euro and 1.2493 against the pound around 10:04 am ET.


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*U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Drops To 125.1 In September

Trading 24 sept 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Drops To 125.1 In September


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