Dollar Stays Firm Against Most Major Rivals

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar stayed fairly positive on Monday, as it gained in strength after data showed euro zone service sector to be moving close to stalling at the end of the third quarter.

The dollar has been faring well amid uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates. The Fed, which lowered interest rate by 25 basis points last week, indicated officials were mixed about whether the bank should cut rates again before the end of the year.

Among the fed officials, there are some participants who expect another rate cut before the end of the year. Some feel rates will remain unchanged this year, while a few others expect rates to be raised back to 2 to 2.25%.

The dollar index, which rose to 98.83 early on in the day, was last seen at 98.63, up 0.11% from previous close.

Against the euro, the dollar was up nearly 0.25%, at 1.0991. The euro lost ground against some other major rivals as well as German private sector activity shrank to the lowest level since October 2012.

IHS Markit said Germany's flash composite PMI declined to 49.1 from 51.7 in August. The services PMI came in a at 9-month low of 52.5 versus 54.8 a month ago, and the Factory PMI plunged to a 123-month low of 41.4, compared to 43.5 in August.

The Eurozone flash composite output index fell unexpectedly to a 75-month low of 50.4 in September from 51.9 in August.

The ECB President Mario Draghi's comments that a rebound in eurozone growth is unlikely in near future also weighed on the euro.

The Pound Sterling was down 0.33% at $1.2434, after weakening to a low of $1.2413 around mid-morning.

The Yen was up marginally against the dollar, with a unit of the U.S. currency fetching 107.49 yen, against Friday's close of 107.56 yen.

The dollar was little changed against the loonie and Swiss franc, at 1.3260 and 0.9904, respectively. Against the Aussie, it was down by about 0.1%.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Extend Upward Trend Amid Global Economic Worries

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Following the strong upward move seen last week, treasuries saw some further upside during the trading session on Monday.

Bond prices gave back some ground after an early rally but remained firmly in positive territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid 4.7 basis points to 1.708 percent.

Treasuries benefited from their appeal as a safe haven amid concerns about the about the global economic outlook following the release of disappointing European economic data.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed the euro area private sector was close to stalling at the end of the third quarter. The flash composite output index unexpectedly fell to a 75-month low of 50.4 in September from 51.9 in August.

Germany's private sector contracted the most since late 2012 as a downturn in manufacturing deepened and service sector growth lost momentum.

Waning optimism about a potential U.S.-China trade deal also contributed to the early rally after the Chinese cut short a visit to the U.S. last week and President Donald Trump indicated he is not in a hurry to reach an agreement.

Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to the Conference Board's report on consumer confidence in the month of September.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $40 billion worth of two-year notes.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Rebounds After Early Weakness, Settles Notably Higher

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Despite concerns about near-term energy demand amid global economic slowdown, crude oil futures settled notably higher on Monday due to possible drop in crude oil supply following recent attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

Oil prices rose despite reports Saudi Arabia has restored nearly three-fourth of the production lost due to the drone attacks about ten days ago.

Oil was presumably supported by reports - citing a few Saudi officials and oil contractors - that it may take many months for the kingdom to restore operations to full working order.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for November ended up $0.55, or about 1%, at $58.64 a barrel.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for November ended down $0.10, or about 0.2%, at $58.09 a barrel. For the week, oil futures gained almost 6%, the biggest weekly gain in nearly three months.

Weak euro area economic data and uncertainty about a U.S.-China trade agreement limited oil's uptick.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed the euro area private sector moved close to stalling at the end of the third quarter. The flash composite output index fell unexpectedly to a 75-month low of 50.4 in September from 51.9 in August.

The Purchasing Managers' Index for services slid to 52.0 from 53.5 in August. The expected reading was 53.0, while the manufacturing PMI declined further, to 45.6 from 47.0 in August. The score was forecast to rise to 47.5.

Germany's private sector contracted the most since late 2012, while France private sector expansion eased to the lowest level in four months in September.

On the trade front, a quick solution to the U.S.-China dispute continues to remain elusive. Following the Chinese cutting short a visit to the U.S. last week and President Donald Trump indicating he is not in a hurry to reach an agreement, it now seems the two countries are unlikely to agree on any trade deal in the near future.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle At Over 2-week High On Safe-haven Appeal

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices rose to more than 2-week high on Monday as traders sought the safe haven commodity amid worries about global economic growth.

Uncertainty about the U.S. and China agreeing on a trade deal anytime soon, and worries about tensions in the Middle East also contributed to the yellow metal's rise.

Gold futures ended with strong gains even as the dollar stayed firm above the flat line right through the day's session.

The dollar index was up 0.15%, at 98.66 despite coming off an early high of 98.83.

Gold futures for December ended up $16.40, or about 1.1%, at $1,531.50 an ounce, the best close since September 4.

On Friday, gold futures for December ended up $8.90, or about 0.6%, at $1,515.10 an ounce. Gold futures gained about 1% last week, their first weekly gain in a month.

Silver futures for December ended up $0.862, at $18.711 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2.6115 per pound, gaining $0.0050 for the session.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed the euro area private sector moved close to stalling at the end of the third quarter. The flash composite output index fell unexpectedly to a 75-month low of 50.4 in September from 51.9 in August.

The Purchasing Managers' Index for services slid to 52.0 from 53.5 in August. The expected reading was 53.0, while the manufacturing PMI declined further, to 45.6 from 47.0 in August. The score was forecast to rise to 47.5.

Germany's private sector contracted the most since late 2012, while France private sector expansion eased to the lowest level in four months in September.

Waning optimism about a potential U.S.-China trade deal helped gold's uptick. Following the Chinese cutting short a visit to the U.S. last week and President Donald Trump indicating he is not in a hurry to reach an agreement, it now seems the two countries are unlikely to agree on any trade deal in the near future.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BTC 09.23.2019 -First objective has been met, more downside on break

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. The first downward target from previous forecast has been met at the price of $9,610. If the price breaks the level of $9.610, next support will be set at the price of $9.265

analytics5d88eff19b82f.jpg

Blue horizontal lines – Support levels based on the price action

Blue rectangle – Major resistance level

MACD oscillator is trying to establish new momentum low, which is sign that buying looks risky at this stage. Watch for potential breakout of the $9,610 to confirm further downside continuation and potential test of $9,265. Based on the 4H time-frame, I found series of the lower lows and lower highs, which is sign of the bearish trend.I don't see any reversal yet.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 23, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d88ee60355c6.jpg

On July 26, Bearish breakdown below 1.2385 (Wedge-Pattern Key-Level) facilitated further bearish decline towards 1.2210 and 1.2100 which corresponded to significant key-levels on the Weekly chart.

In Early August, another consolidation-range was temporarily established between the price levels of (1.2100 - 1.2220) except on August 9 when temporary bearish decline below 1.2100 was executed towards 1.2025 (Previous Weekly-Bottom).

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending-up within the depicted bullish channel except on September 3 when a temporary bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.1960.

Around the price level of 1.1960, early signs of bullish recovery (Bullish Engulfing candlesticks) brought the GBPUSD back above 1.2230 where the pair looked overbought.

However, further bullish momentum was demonstrated towards 1.2320 maintaining the bullish movement inside the depicted movement channel.

As Expected, Temporary bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.2500 where the upper limit of the current movement channel has been applying considerable bearish rejection since September 13.

Last week, recent bullish trials were expressed towards 1.2500 - 1.2550 where bearish rejection and a reversal wedge pattern was established there.

The Long-term outlook remains bearish as long as the upper limit of the current movement channel around 1.2500 - 1.2550 remains defended by the GBP/USD bears.

On the other hand, Bearish Breakout below 1.2440-1.2400 (Reversal-Pattern Neckline) can turn the short-term outlook into bearish, thus allowing more bearish decline to occur towards the lower limit of the movement channel around 1.2330.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can look for a bullish pullback towards the price levels of 1.2500-1.2550 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P level to be placed around 1.2330, 1.2280 and 1.2220 while S/L should be set as a H4 candlestick closure above 1.2550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB’s Draghi Says Rebound In Eurozone Growth Unlikely In Near Future

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

The outgoing European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Monday that it is unlikely that the euro area economy will witness a rebound in the near future.

"Looking ahead, recent data and forward-looking indicators - such as new export orders in manufacturing - do not show convincing signs of a rebound in growth in the near future and the balance of risks to the growth outlook remains tilted to the downside," Draghi said at a hearing in the European Parliament in Brussels.

The ECB Chief said the likelihood of deflation in Eurozone remains limited. However, market expectations of inflation are settling around values that are not consistent with the ECB's aim of keeping inflation "below,but close to 2 percent", Draghi added.

"Overall, in view of the outlook and uncertainties we are facing, monetary policy needs to remain highly accommodative for a prolonged period of time," Draghi said.

Earlier this month, Draghi unveiled a stimulus package with several measures including a reduction in the deposit rate to -0.50 percent and a restart of asset purchases. The ECB stimulus also included a significant change in the wording of forward guidance on interest rates that removed the reference to any specific time period until which the bank expects rates to remain low.

That said, the bank continued to signal that interest rates can be lowered further. The ECB now wants the inflation convergence, to its near 2 percent target, to consistently reflect in underlying inflation trends to start considering tightening.

"It is crucial to remain vigilant and to use the available micro- and macroprudential policy tools as necessary," Draghi said. Former IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is set to replace Draghi as the ECB President when his term ends at the end of October. Eurozone interest rates were raised last in July 2011 by 25 basis points and Draghi will be the only ECB President thus far who did not raise rates during his tenure.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD for September 23,2019 – Broken 5-day tranding range on the downside, more selling yet to come

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

EUR has been trading downwards in the past 24hours. The price tested the level of 1.0968 and then got rejected but in my opinion only temporally. I still see potential for more downside and the recent rally looks just corrective to me.

analytics5d88e8a865c6e.jpg

Orange rectangle – Broken support now became resistance

PInk rectangle - major support area

Orange falling line – Expected path

MACD oscillator is showing good new momentum down in the background and I do expect at least another move lower. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.0967and 1.0927and resistance at 1.1000. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong downward momentum in the background and most recently there is the breakout of the 5-day balance, which confirms further downward pressure.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

September 23, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5d88e40377f2a.jpg

Few weeks ago, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0965 - 1.0950 where the backside of the broken channel came to meet the EURUSD pair again.

Intraday traders were advised to search for a valid BUY entry anywhere around the price levels of 1.0950. Target levels were successfully reached within the recent bullish movement during last weeks' consolidations.

Shortly After, the EUR/USD pair was testing the backside of both broken trends around 1.1060-1.1080 where significant bearish pressure pushed the pair directly towards 1.0940 (Prominent Weekly Bottom).

Bearish Breakout below the price level of 1.0940 was needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.0900 and 1.0840 (Fibonacci Expansion Key-Levels).

However, considerable bullish rejection was demonstrated as a quick bullish spike towards 1.1100 where a recent episode of bearish rejection was expressed.

Currently, the EUR/USD is trapped within a narrow consolidation range extending between (1.0990 - 1.1090) until breakout occurs in either directions.

By the end of last week's consolidations, Bearish Breakout below 1.1025 was demonstrated. This renders the recent bullish spike as a bullish trap.

That's why, initial bearish decline was expected towards 1.0940-1.0920 while the price levels around 1.1030 remain significant supply levels to be watched for bearish rejection.

Any bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1030 should be considered as a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, Any Bullish breakout above 1.1080 gives an early signal of short-term bullish reversal possibility as a bullish double-bottom pattern with a projected target towards 1.1175 (Low probability scenario.

Trade recommendations :

Intraday traders are advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1030 for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should placed above 1.1090. Initial Target levels should be located at 1.0965 and 1.0930.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*ECB's Draghi: No Convincing Signs Of A Rebound In Eurozone Growth In Near Future

Trading 23 sept 2019 Commentaire »

ECB's Draghi: No Convincing Signs Of A Rebound In Eurozone Growth In Near Future


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com